I was not worried about y2k until I heard this piece of information from a friend (former Army special forces guy, solid as a rock, his word is set in stone) who heard it from an electric worker at the barber shop. If this is true, I would say it is significant, wouldn't y'all? I WOULD NOT POST THIS HERE IF I DID NOT TRUST THE ACCURACY OF THE REPORT. sOMEBODY PLEASE HELP TO CONFIRM THIS IF IT IS TRUE. If this is know by an electric repair man, and it was a "national prediction", I would suspect someone reading this forum would be able to confirm this, if they have the cajones. Sorry to sound like a paranoid or a troll, but this is something I cannot get out of my head. Thank you all.

-- Daniel Roberts (daniel roberts@anon.anon), December 12, 1999

Answers

hey, I was sitting in the chair next to the guy when he said it. That good 'nuff?

-- friend of (afriend@friend.friend), December 12, 1999.

It's worth noting too that the guy said the reason for not starting a panic was because the outages would only last for "a brief period of time." somehow this doesn't make me feel any better. Any of you reading this who doubts the seriousness of the glitch should PLEASE takes whatever measures you need to to prepare your family, as I'm sure this electrical utility repairman is probably doing for HIS family. This entire country is right now in a state of collective denial. Has anyone eles noticed the unbeleivable amount of Christmas shopping coverage on t.v. right now? STOP READING THIS BULLETIN BOARD AND START GETTING YOUR SHIT TOGETHER BEFORE THESE RUMORS START SPREADING TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC.

-- Daniel Roberts (daniel roberts@anon.anon), December 12, 1999.

Having worked for an electic company, I can safely say this is how the y2k work was done: IT sends out check lists for the plant managers to give to the Supts. to give to the supervisors to give to the worker to check off item by item. The check lists are for the directors to see that yes indeed we have verified these. It is up to the worker to verify the best he can even though he has never verified a system before.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), December 12, 1999.

Carol, please tell us more...

-- Daniel Roberts (daniel roberts@anon.anon), December 12, 1999.

I would say it is as true as the following "story"
(and yes the story itself is true, in as far as the conversations actually took place.)

My son's mother-in-law called her daughter one day a month or so ago.

She had some work done on the phone line in the house and the telco guy said" I'm not supposed to tell you this, but you won't have phone service after the second week of January". She flipped out. She also heard that "the army would come and confiscate your food".
I don't know if the "army" info came from the telco guy.

Now, one of the following is true:

A) The worker was telling the truth.

B) The worker is just having a laugh and seeing how far he can get a rumor to spread. (its fun, try it sometime) C) The worker "believes" it is true,(but does not know for certain), because he heard it from another source "he" considered reliable.

The only "clue" I have is this question:
"What percentage of utility employees have their radios in their trucks tuned to some sort of Talk Radio program?"

I have formulated an opinion about these kinds of stories based on the above info. Can you guess what it is?

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), December 12, 1999.

Daniel, It is possible that 25% loss of power is too optimistic a figure. I don't know if you are familiar with the reports of "Mr.CEO", but just in case you are not, I'll fill you in.

A couple of weeks ago, Gary North posted the following- http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/6776 (sorry I don't know how to do hot links, just select, then copy and paste)

As you will notice, Mr.CEO, if real, is also one of the worlds foremost authorities on embedded systems. That being the case, if he is real, then his predictions MUST be taken VERY seriously. Notice that 40-60% of the grid going down is his BEST POSSIBLE case. What is his most PROBABLE case? He doesn't say.

So the question then becomes, is Mr.CEO real? This question went unanswered for a short while, when suddenly, Gary North reports the following-http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/6848

Now Gary North, as great a site as he has, is known to have some very contraversial views, so it goes unstated that the above must be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, Gary North does not seem like a liar.

Suddenly, around November 30, comes this bombshell:

"This is to confirm that I will participate in the interview of Mr CEO Wednesday Dec 1 at 2PM eastern time. Neither of us will be in studio however. None of the show's personnel are aware of his identity. I do know Mr CEO personally, however and can vouch for his identity as well his credentials. Victor Porlier, another long-time Westergaard columnist has also vouched for Mr CEO's authenticity.

I am responsible for arranging his appearance on the program under the condition that his identify and that of his company be protected. I can also reveal that I am "Friend #1" referred to in Will Reishman's earlier email which ended up posted on Gary North's site.

Mr. CEO is a courageous individual who is taking a significant risk by making a live appearance. He is doing so out of his deep concern for others.

Jim Lord"

Jim Lord has appeared on C-Span, and was made famous by breaking the story of the now infamous Navy Documents. The entire Y2K community was holding it's breath, waiting in painful anticipation for the interview, when suddenly and without notice, Mr.CEO decided not to appear.

However, Jim Lord DID appear, and what he had to say basically confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt that Mr.CEO does indeed exist. Jim Lord said that he spent 2 days with Mr.CEO, and that he is very real, very respectable, and probably the most knowledgeable person on the planet with regards to embedded systems. He decided not to come forward for several reasons

1)He would not convince anyone who was not already convinced (i.e., the only people who would care, would be those who had already prepared anyway)

2)Because of non-disclosure agreements, he could lose his contracts which would leave no one to fix the problem.

So only two questions remain:

Does Mr.CEO exist? YES. Is Mr.CEO right? You decide.

-- Orson Wells (wells@whitebulb.com), December 12, 1999.

A friend of mine has a cousin, a stand-up guy, viet-nam vet, etc, who has a girlfriend who knows a guy at an electric company who overheard his bosses boss on a phone call to some guy in Wisconsin who said....

Your continued post ot the utilities is getting pretty stale and I'm tired of pasting this equally lame response...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@AOL.COM), December 12, 1999.

Daniel, rather than worrying about who said what, here is the best way to handle your dilemma. Assume the worst to be true, assume that you are going to be in the 25%, then be prepared for it.

I already assume that my power could be out for the rest of my life, and I am prepared for that possibility, hence it does not bother me in the least.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 12, 1999.

It is true. I heard it from my uncle, who heard it from his brother, who heard it from his girlfriend, who heard it from her sister's brother's cousin's nephew's girlfriend's neighbor. Yup. Sounds authentic to me.

-- O (o@o.com), December 12, 1999.

I don't know what more I could tell you except what I have posted before: I was in a meeting to go over a new computer program put on all the desktop computers. This was in the summer of 98. I had just GIed and so I asked a lot of questions about y2k and the program. The man who designed the program said all the desktop computer programs were y2k ready. I asked about the vendors that we use that maybe wasn't ready. The man said anyone who wasn't ready was crazy and we wouldn't be doing any business with them. I asked about embedded chips and he was getting upset with me and my questions. He finaly said that everything was ready except the plant controllers, they can't be fixed. That was the end of the conversation and the meeting went on. This was just one person but he had no clue. Another time an IT fix it person was with me consulting about a computer problem, and I asked him about the y2k issue. He said that the Vice President in charge of y2k for the whole company was flying to each plant with a list of things to be checked. The list would be sent back to him and everything on the list had to be verified by signatures. The only verificatin I had any dealings with was to set the computer program that ran a PLC system date up to Jan 1,2000, Feb.29 2000 and if the computer did not crash, the item was checked as verified. I have no knowledge of how other systems were checked. They could have been verified to be perfect by IT specialists that may have been sent to each plant to check these hundreds of systems. Just because I didn't see any there does not mean they weren't.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), December 12, 1999.

How's this, you can take it to the bank, course maybe you'd rather not! I have an immediate family member, not a friend of a friend, but much closer.

Senior tech person at a utility, hydro, this one is. Found through consultant's inventory that the plant has more than a hundred embedded systems in it. About half are rated as being critical to it's system's function, in other words, it goes out the system it is in goes out, some of these have workarounds that will be hard to do and costly, but can be done, for a little while at least. Some are fatal, meaning death to its system and no workaround.

Most are in flow meters, SCADA, communications systems and governors.

Ok, now listen up - no embedded testing, remediation, or even contacting of vendors for compliance status. Fix on Failure, they have no option but that, will stand there at rollover waiting for the big surprises that may follow and of course some are going to be rather hard to FOF.

How many other plants, utilities, chemical companies, etc., are doing the same thing?

Now you may want to bet the safety and comfort of your family on the outcome, but I'd rather not.

-- rumdoodles (rumdoodles@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

Daniel,

the reason you are getting such a luke warm response to your question is:

1) because it is based on nothing more than a rumor,

and, "STOP READING THIS BULLETIN BOARD AND START GETTING YOUR SHIT TOGETHER BEFORE THESE RUMORS START SPREADING TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC. "

2) you sound hysterical, frightened, like you just "got it".

Most of the people here got it a long time ago, Daniel, and are completely prepared for whatever may happen in 3 weeks. Thats why we don't really care if the power goes out in Wisconsin; the general public has had 2 years and more to get ready for this, and if they're not ready, oh well...

You sound like you just woke up and figured this all out yesterday morning. You're the one that needs to get his shit together, not the bulk of the regulars here.

-- (cavscout@fix.net), December 12, 1999.

Cavscout is definitely right. If you are a DGI who just became a GI, you still may be able to purchase propane, propane heater, propane stove and food BUT BEGIN TONIGHT by starting to store water. Please check the prpearations forum which contains so many great ideas. There is still time if you hurry. A week from now may be too late, however! I am not trying to frighten you but if reality ever hits the masses...............

-- Ruth Edwards (REath29646@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

Daniel,

You have already started two other threads with this same rumour, and have not been able to confirm it. See and 25% of homes without power .

Is there any indication at all that it could possibly be more than just a rumour, and if so, what mechanism would be used for determining what sections or feeders would be dropped and why.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), December 12, 1999.

Daniel,

You have already started two other threads with this same rumour, and have not been able to confirm it. See I thought you were all completely nuts... and 25% of homes without power .

Is there any indication at all that it could possibly be more than just a rumour, and if so, what mechanism would be used for determining what sections or feeders would be dropped and why.

(sorry for messing up the links in the previous post)

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), December 12, 1999.

I can't confirm such a statement, but I can add another such "rumor", posted 12/12 at the Milwa ukee Y2k forum by jheidtke, which I think are important to pass along:

...A couple of other points of interest:

1. In a private meeting regarding Y2K readiness about a year ago, representatives of the water utility stated that they would be able to supply water only if there was electricity. Representatives of the electric utility stated that they would be able to supply electricity only if there was water. My boss was invited to, and attended this meeting, and reported the above.

Interestingly, the waste water treatment utility has since installed emergency generators at all their main lift and pumping stations. This has been widely reported in the press, since there has been some public backlash to having these noisy, ugly generators installed in some locations. The water utility has taken no such action.

2. The believeability (sp?) of any critical information from the water utility is suspect. My wife was the chief editor of the final engineering report on the crypto fiasco. According to her, any data or analysis that was critical of the water utility management's role in causing the crisis was removed before the final version was published. The original report clearly placed the blame directly on the utility management; the final report blamed unforseeable accidents and circumstances. Since Y2K disruptions have the potential for causing a repeat of the crypto crisis, anything from the water utility that is not independently verified is worthless.

3. Since water delivery depends on available electricity, how's the local electric utility (WEPCO) doing? They've has adopted a "fix-on- failure" approach to their embedded systems problems.

Two years ago, their Y2K project manager stated that they couldn't afford to test everything, so they would simply wait to see what broke, and run those things manually (this was reported publically by a member of their Y2K team). Of course, WEPCO has downsized so much in recent years that much of their experienced technical and engineering staff is gone.

Any testing that they have done has only been type testing, which has long been invalidated for looking for Y2K problems.

Several members of their Y2K team that I've spoken to have stated that there is no way that WEPCO can avoid massive Y2K problems, and they have all purchased generators, and stocked enough fuel and water for several months.

My wife spoke to a senior engineer at WEPCO several months ago, and in comparing the power outages from our big wind storm in '98 to what was going to happen from Y2K, he said "at least after the storm you knew the power would come back on sometime".

None of this evidence means we will definately be without water or power in three weeks. However, these are clues about what we might be able to expect, and what we should prepare for.

I can't verify any of these statements, but they have a "ring of truth" to them. We'll know the truth starting in 19 days...

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 13, 1999.