Ah well, Roleigh Martin said this new essay from Infomagic was a "Stephen King" look at Y2k. The bottom line: Infomagic says within 10 years, 90% of the earth's population will be dead.

Infomagics latest

-- robert waldrop (rmwj@soonernet.com), December 28, 1999

Answers

10 years? Sounds a bit optimistic to me. Infomagic has gone polly.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 28, 1999.

Previous threads

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0027Te

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0027bW

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), December 28, 1999.

Infomagic is a wuss!

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), December 28, 1999.

I know all that guys stuff already. But he leaves out a lot of stuff that completes the picture. His analysis of the monetary situation is limited and he only sees some of the factors that affect the fiat situation. He does not understand the human aspect and the other priorities that effect the key players in the currency war. His assumptions about disease are just the same crap as the earthquake freaks have been saying forever. "California is going to fall in the ocean!" The flu of 1918 did its thing but the earth didnt fall off its axis. "infomagic" is a stoned egotripping idiot claiming to know it all.

-- billburke (bburke@rocketmail.com), December 28, 1999.

He proved mathematically that Y2K would be a disaster?

Mathematically, there is an infinite distance between two points, thus getting anywhere is impossible.

In physics, since the negatively charged electron is drawn to the positively charged proton, the entire universe should collapse in a "violet death".

No, I'm not a polly, just not comfortable with his reasoning.

-- Anonymous999 (Anonymous999@Anonymous999.xxx), December 28, 1999.

The problem with any prediction, is that the prediction is based on a whole set of variables happening at just the right(wrong) time. If even one variable is removed or doesn't happen according to schedule, the whole prediction is FUBAR.

Now this is not necessarily GOOD news, since the possibility is there for it to be even worse than predicted. OTOH, it's not necessarily BAD news, since the possibility is also there, for it to be better than predicted.

All predictions, no matter how well grounded and reasoned out, are only possibilities, or at best, probabilities. They are never absolutes.The best laid predictions of Pollies and Doomers alike, are not exempt from the laws of chance and are subject to becoming fiction, without notice, and at any time.

I suppose this is just so much gas-bagging, at this point. With less than 4 days till rollover, it's a little late to be changing your preparation strategy, but, FWIW and IMHO, the best strategy has ALWAYS been to hedge your bets.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), December 28, 1999.

Well, regardless of Infomagic's take on the monitary system, if he is correct in his assessment of industry and goobermint remediation efforts, we are in real deeeeeep kimshii.

-- elskon (elskon@bigfoot.com), December 28, 1999.

I agree that the last half of his post was speculative and you don't have to agree with it. The bottom line with Infomagic is the Charlotte's Web/Devolutionary Spiral...

The key is whether you believe that the growth of World population is in any real way dependent on Computers and all that they have come to infect. If, as reported yesterday, 25% of California's economy is due to foreign trade, how much more dependent is the world's population on it's continuance??

More to the point, will the whole Openness/ Transparency/"Free Trade"/Open Immigration model survive an extended downturn in the teeth of a resurgent Left-Right raprochment that happened in Seattle??

'Cause if Infomagic's insight is correct, deaths on a World Class scale are very possible.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in 83 hours.com), December 28, 1999.

I give Infomagic's scenario the exact same probability as Koskinen's, about 1%.

-- a (a@a.a), December 28, 1999.

Ohhhhhh, well, even tho Infomagic's latest is a depressing read, he still has more weight to his percentage than Koffinsky! Koffinsky is Zero Problema (cept across the street and those irksome pitchforks, jess fer local yokels), which is already untrue. We give Koffinsky 0% and Infomagic 15%, cuz it's dealing with humanimal reaction after all.

Can't rule out War entirely with all the maniacs running around the globe.

Still, with the sun shining, and life lovely, we're enjoying polly daze and didn't even read the whole Infomagic thing -- too depressing!

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 28, 1999.

Another thing about Infomagic's latest -- he lost credibility with us by refusing to let his words be copied to other Fora, and by asking for silver for an autographed copy in the mail -- days before Rollover. If the mail is working, we'll be happy! And it won't have "gone Infomagic" (at least not yet). Ppl writing about Y2K who are motivated by $$ above and beyond reaching out and helping others get ready are, well, part of the same problem that caused Y2K to come into being in the first place. If they're not wholeheartedly committed to being part of the solution, they really don't "Get It."

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 28, 1999.

I read InfoMagic's latest. I did not find it very enlightening or believable. Much of it was a warmed-over rehash of the sorts of things one reads on TB2000 all the time. Fiat money. Gold-bashing conspiracy. Stock bubble bursting. Embeddeds going up in flames. And so on and so forth.

I must say his writing style influenced my opinion, too. I did not find it closely reasoned. I found very little factual content that was not heavily framed or slanted. There was a lot of rant and cant, and the essay was peppered with the type of propagandistic jargoning that I associate with Communists of the 30's and John Birchers of the 60's. He might as well have called his opponents "running dogs" for all the impact it had on my emotions.

It had a decidedly apocalyptic flavor, in the literal sense. Infomagic appears to be a fundamentalist Christian who believes that the coming devolution he predicts is God's judgement on our sinful society, and he appears to hint that it will be a prelude to the actual Day of Judgement and the Second Coming.

I often wonder why Infomagic has been taken so seriously. He is no great shakes as an orator, would fail as a teacher, and is a poor sort of scholar. Near as I can peg him, he is a well-read mediocrity. I wouldn't follow him across the street if he promised to buy me an ice cream cone.

OK, folks, flame away at me. I have committed a great heresy.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 28, 1999.

Brian,

I haven't read all of his latest essay yet, but in general I'm with you. He's just a guy who came up with a very interesting angle with the devolutionary spiral, but everything else I've read of his is really ordinary stuff, IMHO. I think upon reading the devolutionary spiral/Charlotte's web thing some elevated him to demigod status, waiting with baited breath for every word that comes down from the mountaintop. This is very sad.

-- eve (123@4567.com), December 28, 1999.

I've read all of Infomagic's posts since the beginning. I think he's basically hit the proverbial nail on the head every time, even though his prediction of the timing of some of the events events are somewhat off (And many of us guessed wrong there. But, I've never been one to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Anyway, I've always believed that the worlds problems are systemic and chronic. But, that these problems will soon become very acute. Y2k is the trigger and is also the beginning of the end. (For all us born again Christians, it is the opening of the seventh seal spoken of in the book of Revelation. And, with the opening of that seal, we can expect the judgements of God to be poured out upon the earth without measure - right?) So, really, it doesn't matter how long before the "days of tribulation" (as Info described it), begin. For, we know it will not be long. Therefore, it's just a matter of time now and as can be plainly seen when this world is viewed through the macro societal Lense, one sees events unfolding that make a change of course for humanity next to impossible.

-- Teague Harper (tharper@cyberhighway.net), December 28, 1999.

"I often wonder why Infomagic has been taken so seriously."

He simply articulated the worst-case scenario better than anyone else. His essays, though long, were entertaining to read. He sounded authoritative. Those things can NOT be said about many of the other posters here.

And since most of us had read his stuff, his name became a kind of shorthand for the worst-case scenario, rather like teotwawki. "Going Infomagic" was something that everyone understood, even if they scoffed at the idea.

I hope he's wrong. If he's right, all of my preps will not keep us alive more than a few weeks or months. But at least there's a name for what's in store for us.... ;->

-- there's (no@mystery.here), December 28, 1999.

As usual, Infomagic is half right; he is wrong.

-- Buster (bustrcollins@aol.com), December 28, 1999.

A man's heart is found in his words. He either longs for life, or death. There is nothing else.

-- Cloud William (ours@gain.org), December 28, 1999.

Info has done a lot of reading and gleaning information, ideas and scenarios from here, and other sites. He merely used the information and wrote his term essay, that's all. I did not read anything in his essay that raised my eyebrows, I wouldn't send him a wooden nickel for what he wrote, it was same ole same ole.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 28, 1999.

Man there are a LOT of green eyes on these Infomagic threads. Killing the messenger, people? Hmmmmmm? HE never set himself up as godlike. That's someone ELSE's projection onto him. We sure like to read him, though.

-- DB (tomG@h.com), December 28, 1999.

I disagree with Brian and eve. I find Info's writing style very compelling and his analytical abilities far beyond what we normally see on this forum. This manifesto is an important read and helps to balance out the extreme pollyanna view being projected by government, industry and the media.

I think his summation of the economic situation is accurate, although probably unfathomable to the vast majority of educated people.

Just because I give his scenario a 1 in 100 chance does not mean his 'theory' is rubbish; it just means I think there is a poor, but finite, likelihood of things occurring as he predicts. It is important to realize that his is a view of a possible future, not necessarily a probably one.

For the record, my view of Y2K has remained unchanged since I 'Got It' three days after seeing Yourdon on television news in July '98:

SCENARIO   ADVOCATE  CHANCE  COMPARABLE EVENT
Bump       Koskinen   1%     Asian Flu
Recession  Yardeni   28%     1972 oil embargo
Depression Yourdon   50%     1930 depression
Collapse   Milne     20%     Civil War
Devolution Infomagic  1%     Dark Ages

My view of the importance of the confluence of events getting ready to take place also remains unchanged. From most severe to least severe:

- Economic meltdown of global financial system at the peak of the largest speculative bubble and debt load in history

- Y2K disruptions that destroy the efficiency of modern society

- Increased militarism and terrorism

- Worsening environmental effects such as solar, deforestation, warming, overpopulation, pollution, climate, disease, etc.

Although I agree it will be a time of 'tribulation' as Infomagic says, I am more optimistic that the global government that replaces the current UN 'hodge podge' will be better equipped to deal with the problems we have created. I believe this is an evolutionary hurdle we are preparing to cross, to get us to the next step in the sequence

tribe > village > city-state > nation > ???>

Note that I have to be optimistic. The alternative is much too unpleasant.

-- a (a@a.a), December 28, 1999.

tribe > village > city-state > nation> N.W.O. >

-- Melchizedek (just@guess.one), December 28, 1999.

tribe > village > city-state > nation> N.W.O. > tribe

Michael

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), December 28, 1999.

a,

I respect your position. Actually, Infomagic's devolutionary spiral, a bit of his other material, the IEEE website on embeddeds, Leonard Read's "I, Pencil" and a few other pieces were among the more significant influences for my current pessimistic position. So in no way am I trying to de-emphasize his contribution. In fact, I would put the "dark ages" probability at a percentage quite a bit higher than the 1% you assign it, but I'm not yet able to come up with a meaningful percentage myself.

-- eve (123@4567.com), December 28, 1999.

Aloha!

The Greeks thought they were bad too, so did the Romans, so did the Aztec, so did the Maya, so did the U.S.S.R.???? Americans live in a fantasy that it can't happen to them!!! It not only can, it will one day. The only way to stay on top is to have a **GOD** (LOVE) based country, world! Anything less is temporary at best. Infomagic is one very smart person and has a very strong foundation to stand on! Do you?

Do you really think that with or without y2k that it can just keep on trucking??? Hello? It can't and you know what, it won't either! Someday:)

Lokelo

-- Lokelo (lokelo@hotmail.com), December 28, 1999.