On November 1, I posted the following

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001RaS

Lets just say that most of the predictions on this forum are wrong. That Y2K comes and goes without much of anything happening to the general populace. That Water, Phones are all OK. Maybe a small company or store here and there that didnt do anything goes out of business but in general nothing much happens that isnt more then an annoyance or aggravation for the vast majority. There may be a recession but itll be due to the natural end of the Bull Market, not Y2K induced.

How long will it take for the "usual suspects" that post for the light bulb to go on and say they were wrong? Will you wait until the middle of January (accumulated effects?), February 29th, March 1st, June, December 31st, 2001? 2010, 2015?

Note Im not asking for comments or a debate on if its a good idea to prepare or what you will do will all of your food and ammo afterwards. Im asking if there is a time period after 1/1/2000 when youll come to the realization that your basic assumptions were wrong if things dont go as predicted.

(And I cant help but wonder if you will blame it on Government or Companies for "misleading" you or will you blame it on the Y2K gurus?)

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), September 21, 1999

* * * 19990921 Tuesday

This is Polly-Troll baiting tripe post--I know!... I'll be brief, anyway...

"The Engineer":

There'll be no escaping "misleading" Y2K statements from corporate- statists. In a U.S. stock market decline, there will never be reasons for any companies/municipalities in telecommunications, electrical power, water treatment, or financial industries to lose"confidence" of investors. I base this conclusion on the current U.S. standard of living (i.e., customary telecomm, electric, financial, etc. in the present economy ). Even during the Great Depression there was demand for all infrastructure services!

However, if the any corner of the "Iron Triangle" infrastructure "breaks"--becomes non-functional--it will be self-evident where the shame belongs. A stock market collapse does not cause any segment of the infrastructure to become unable to deliver the "goods."

IMHO, the answer to your lame, baited question is:

October 1999 will be _the_ critical month! When small businesses see applications unable to project beyond 3 months ( into 2000 ), the failures will generate "awareness," propelling societies into the realm of unavoidable and irreversible public "Y2K Panic." [Emphasis added]

Basic Y2K assumptions are not incorrect!

* The code is broken and cannot be fixed before Y2K.

* There is sufficient Y2K PR spun denial to keep the sheep asleep.

* There are countless examples of failed/failing systems.

There will be no doubt that more systems failures will be observed and noted in horror by employees in the bowels of corporate-statist enterprises--GLOBALLY.

The only unknown will be the trajectory societies will choose to deal with and remedy the situation. All options will be open! Rebuilding upon, and/or preserving, vestiges of a proven failed socio-technology infrastructure should not be an option.

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), November 01, 1999

Two replies explained Mr. Mangus' position further:

>> October 1999 will be _the_ critical month! When small businesses see applications unable to project beyond 3 months (into 2000 ), the failures will generate "awareness," propelling societies into the realm of unavoidable and irreversible public "Y2K Panic." <<

Robin, you seem a bit overeager to post this on the morning of November 1 as a "failed prediction". Calm down a bit.

I happen to disagree with this prediction and I believe it *will* fail, but, in the tradition of Delphic oracles, Bob Mangus has uttered a very ambiguously-worded prediction. Read more carefully:

He simply identifies October as the "critical month". Then he predicts a cause (failed look-ahead calculations) that will be followed by a primary effect (awareness) leading eventually to a secondary effect (panic).

Grammatically, all you can derive from his prediction is that the awareness will happen *in* October and the panic will *follow* in due time.

Now, the reason I disagree with this prediction is simple. The cause is not sufficient to produce a panic.

I strongly suspect there are a lot of intermediate steps that Bob Mangus left out of his argument, such as the "awareness" he cited leading to an acceleration of preparation, leading to strains on the JIT system, leading to creeping awareness, leading to further strains, until a critical mass of events accumulate and cause a panic. If my strong suspicions are correct, then probably Bob never intended to predict that the whole process would be complete within October, only that the decisive trigger event (in his view) would take place.

There is still time for him to be right, Robin. But don't despair. The probabilities are still with you. Hang in there. You may yet get a chance to flap your wings and crow in this barnyard.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), November 01, 1999.

Mangus confirmed that McLaughlin's interpretation of his prediction was a fair one:

* * * 19991101 Monday

Brain McLaughlin: Your characterization is fair. Thank you! . . .

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), November 01, 1999.

Oh, well gee. I guess that when Mr. Mangus stated that October was THE critical month he only meant to say that public awareness about y2k would rise in October and continue rising throughout the year. Well, DUHHH. I could have predicted the same thing but I wouldn't have used such alarmist tones. I guess we Pollies shouldn't hold Doomers to the most obvious meanings of their predictions and should take Deconstruction 101 to understand what they really mean. Why, if we do enough interpreting and fancy dancing then Mangus' prediction can almost be proven to be correct. Since Ed Yourdon is claiming that the effects of y2k will last 10 years, then almost any panic, between now and 2010 could somehow be interpreted to be y2k related. Say 100 people lose their jobs because a company laid off some workers because it wasn't prepared for y2k. Suppose the laid off workers picket outside the house of the CEO of the company to protest the fact that they are out of a job because he screwed up and didn't get the company ready in time. Suppose the protest turns ugly and a small riot occurs. Even though this may be the only riot attributable to y2k, with enough wiggle room and enough deconstructing, Mr. Mangus could point to this as proof that his prediction came true. I would hardly characterize this as propelling societ[y] into the realm of unavoidable and irreversible public "Y2K Panic.", but if one is willing to bend the meaning of the prediction after the fact then others will undoubtedly claim that the prediction was validated.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 12, 1999

Answers

I'll cry "uncle" if nothing has happened by Feb 1, 2000. And by "nothing", I mean that life is pretty much going on as it is now. If oil supplies are drastically cut, or coffee prices triple, or if 30 people freeze to death in Siberia, you lose. After all, ya'll did say that "nothing" would happen. I take "nothing" to mean just that.

Also, don't count me as a sore loser. I'll just go back to day- trading the S&P500.

-- impala (impala@wild.com), December 12, 1999.

I really don't understand why this issue has become so emotional. I believe there are going to be major problems. 2 1/2 years worth of research have led me to believe this. Naturally I must act on what I have discovered. It is my duty to my family to do so. Do I owe someone an apology if i'm wrong? My family maybe, but anyone else? Of course not. Is it necessary for me to stand up and make some public declaration of my mistake? No, why should I. My preparations have not harmed anyone. No one but my family will be forced to drink instant milk by our decision to be as self sufficient as possible. In other words i'f i'm wrong, so What? Who will be harmed? I have been a fool for much less in my life than the protection of my family. The problem, sir, is not if I/doomers (you call them) are wrong, but rather if you are wrong. Are YOU prepared to say, "I made my decision and trusted the wrong people, now I am willing to eat dog food or whatever scraps I can find with a smile on my face. NEVER will I point a finger at those that prepared or feel that in someway the need to share or be forced to share what they have with me. I am even willing to risk starvation, hypotherma and death." Once again it comes down to this, If the doomers are wrong people have feed their families on a business that boomed (stored food and survial supplies) Again I say SO WHAT. If you are wrong I suspect that you will not be willing to live by your choices. That you will turn an angry finger at us and demand that we share. My life is not at risk if I am wrong and yours is.

-- Michelle Galloway (gallosway@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

Robin:

I don't think you've been reading very carefully lately. Your point has already been addressed. People *are* panicking, but the media are covering it up. Those ample supplies of generators and the like at the local stores simply reflect government spin. And we're even now experiencing almost, but not quite, too many y2k bugs to contain any longer. We're "barely managing" to keep the lid on it.

We know Hershey had problems. This was posted many times. Hershey has since recovered, which wasn't posted. Spin? Nahhh. And Omaha had a snafu, also posted many times. Three days later, the papers reported they had it repaired, but of course that was *not* posted. Spin? Nahhh. According to some "pressure groups", a 6-month old survey reported lack of progress in water and wastewater treatment facilities. The latest update reports nearly all of them finished, and detailed assessment has found almost no date processing involved. Was this update posted? Of course not. In fact, I have yet to see *any* of the followup reports of problems successfully handled ever posted. Spin? Nahhh. It's just that our local sleuths don't consider followups *worthy* of being posted. Why not? If you don't know, you haven't been reading. The local denizens here are too *rational* to bother with anything contrary to their fixations.

Oh, I've noticed that Mr. Mangus has vanished since the resounding failure of his prediction. I spent some effort noticing this practice a while back. You might have missed it. The latest technique is to postpone the collapse while spending increasing effort calling anyone "stupid" whose positive predictions have had the temerity to come true. So just read and enjoy, things will be getting interesting.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 12, 1999.

Impala,

Could you show me where I said absolutely nothing would happen? I don't think that any Polly ever said that. But you do seem to prove my point. You will declare your side as having "won" if 30 people freeze to death in Siberia. Well, I wouldn't be surprised if 30 people freeze to death in Siberia every year anyway. I really doubt that people on this forum are doing all their prepping because they are afraid that coffee prices might tripple or thirty people will freeze to death in Siberia. You don't need to buy generators or thousands of rounds of ammo or a year's worth of MREs for that.

It seems that the Doomers are lowering the bar on what it means for their Doomerism to be vindicated. Thank you for proving my point.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 12, 1999.

WhatEVER.

So anyone know which grocers are discounting storables this week?

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 12, 1999.

Screw predictions... Where's my rubber stamp... Oh, here it is...

IT AIN'T Y2K YET!...

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

I for one will be one happy camper if march comes and i can say "It is all over, Y2K is A BITR" Thank you GOD!!!!

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

Where's the great pumpkin? The conspiracies behind every tree never did materialize. Where is martial law? Where are the bank runs? No, none, nada! It hasn't happened and it's not going to happen!

-- jq public (jqpublic@usa.com), December 12, 1999.

Look at what's going on in the news. Things are happening every day. We hear of problems in the news most every day. Think of how much we don"t hear that is cover up or hidden by companies. I know it is going o0n where I work we have been working arond problems for about amouth. Are IT is freaking out about stuff he can do nothing about. we have software that the authorization code expires because of Y2K and can't get new one's until after jan.

OPEN YOUR EYES!!!!! THE FUSE IS BURNING!!!

-- wacko (gonewackie@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

The fact that only a few Y2K problems happened on October 1st hasn't stopped the government's plans to begin 24-hour operations of its Y2K center on December 28th...

"White House readies Y2k center"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001jjc

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 12, 1999.

Flint,don't be a hypocrite,post said good news and quit being partt of your problem.I hadn't heard the good news you just reported until now.Jeeze you're part of your own doomer conspiracy meme!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

Just a mute comment- Hershey has not recovered, estimated losses to date @ 100 million (+) Final remediation and recovery by March/April 2000 assuming no other roll-over glitches and there is still normal commerce.

-- richard shockwave (vision441@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

the whole arguement about who is right or wrong is a stupid exercise in testosterone enhanced thinking, grow up. do you think anyone would revel in the facts that nothing happened? do you think anyone would revel in the fact that millions of people starved or froze or suffered dehydration? you need to get a life.

the whole prep thing is evolved about a concept known as contingency planning, do you carry a spare tire in your car, do you carry a rain coat, maybe you dont think that you will get a flat, but in case you are wrong you carry a spare. maybe you think that it will be a BITR but what if you are wrong?

i am prepared to be wrong about this, it wont bother me a bit, i wont lose sleep over it, i wont wail and gnash my teeth, i will continue to go on with my life knowing that i have done my best to protect my family. your taunts and gaffs will only be for your ears, i will be too busy living in the next milleneum whil you are still playing adolescent games.

the preppy

-- preppy (watching@theclock.com), December 12, 1999.

One month is adequate to see whether Y2K has been appropriately addressed around the world. As a middle of the road doomer, it should only take a month to see the symptoms manifest and spread but I don't expect anything adverse to happen to me personally. Most of it is going to occur outside the U.S. If a whole lot of small businesses fail in the U.S. that's nothing new. They do that anyway. Remember, location, location, location. There has to be a whole lot of Hershey type failures before I will consider the doomer bent to be, in general, correct.

Impala - I'll cry "uncle" if nothing has happened by Feb 1, 2000. And by "nothing", I mean that life is pretty much going on as it is now. If oil supplies are drastically cut, or coffee prices triple, or if 30 people freeze to death in Siberia, you lose. After all, ya'll did say that "nothing" would happen. I take "nothing" to mean just that. Also, don't count me as a sore loser. I'll just go back to day- trading the S&P500.

Coffee prices can swing widely due to weather and crop failures and Siberians get drunk fall in a drift and freeze ALL THE TIME during the winter. On the other hand if oil supplies are drastically cut then we're in for a hell of a ride and I predict a lot of SUVs will be up for sale. I guess too, if Y2K is a bust but terrorism disrupts oil then we still lose the Nostradamus contest.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), December 12, 1999.

Umm Flint and Robin. Mr Magnus doesn't have access to his computer anymore. Nor does he have access to his home or preps. Seems he got run out and ran into a Domestic Problem, resulting in restraining orders etc. UGLY SITUATION. HAS NOT A THING to do with his prediction.

Ran into a friend of his a couple months ago.

chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 12, 1999.

Chuck:

I wasn't aware of that. My apologies to Mr. Mangus. I hope he gets his situation straightened out soon.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 12, 1999.

Robin:

Sorry it took awhile to get back on this.

You didnt say that nothing would happen, but many people are. I simplified my answer unnecessarily, so Ill apologize for that.

You may think that I proved your point, but I respectfully would take issue with that. Let me provide this example:

What if the power goes out for 3 weeks in Georgia, but I live in Alabama. My generator would be useless, but was I right to buy one or not? You may think that its a silly example, but its probably the most real-world example of all.

You see, all of my relatives live in Alabama and are unanimous in saying that everything is fixed and nothing will happen. Therefore, they have done nothing (theres that word again!) to prepare. Absolutely nothing- even though the front page of the newspaper headlined that our state government is ranked last in terms of preparedness. Now, Ill admit that nothing major has happened thus far, but whose to say that our luck will continue? Frankly, nobody knows for sure until we get there-not you, me, or anyone.

Back to my example, if something serious happens in GA but not in AL, then I can assure you that my relatives (including my parents and brother) will say that y2k was nothing and I was stupid to prepare. After all, it happened over there and not here. They (my relational pollies) will be just as capable of rationalizing their choice just as the preparers will be after the reality of y2k is known in a month or two. (BTW, that was my reason for posting about oil, coffee, and Siberia; they are all over there)

Thus, Im not intentionally lowering the bar, but am pointing out that y2k doesnt have to be a complete meltdown for someone to be affected. Since youve never said that nothing would happen, then Im assuming that you believe that something will happen. But where-and what? I dont know. Do you?

Well, Im not taking any chances. I never bought any of that high- priced doomer stuff ( I ate too many MREs in the Marines anyway), but I did spend a few bucks at Sams on a lot of canned meat, rice and a water purifier. I certainly wouldnt call that extreme.

Thats my reply, I guess. You are absolutely right about there being no serious problems thus far, and I hope it stays that way. However, I think that it is the prudent choice to wait and see what January brings, and I hope that you and others will do the same. Good luck.

-- impala (impala@wild.com), December 12, 1999.

Chuck,

Much as I enjoy an occassional gentle gloat at a Doomer's expense, I am genuinely sorry to hear about what has happened to Mr. Mangus. If you are in touch with him can you pass on my hopes that he is able to straighten out his life and my wishes for him to have a safe future despite his inability to access his preparations. I have disagreed with many of the things that he has posted in the past, but I do wish him well.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 12, 1999.

Flint,

What about VW and Audi not getting any spare parts for months now...? Do you count that as a problem....? It was for the sake of y2k remediation and I tell you that people are SERIOUSLY pissed about a GERMAN company screwing up like that. That just DOES NOT happen here... (I would however like to see more GOOD NEWS items...)

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heavengermany.com), December 12, 1999.

Michelle:

I, too, have always been perplexed at this idea that I would have to apologize for prepping if Y2K turns out to be nothing or a BITR. I will thank God I had the sense in my head to prepare, and life will go on! Actually, I have learned many valuable lessons from preparing, what's there to feel sorry for?

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 12, 1999.

Impala,

Thanks for your clarification. I don't know what will happen, but I seriously doubt we will be seeing power outages anywhere in the U.S. lasting three weeks. I can't rule out completely the possibility that some areas may have outages of a couple of days, but I think even that is unlikely.

Having said that, I agree with you that some preparation is prudent and it sounds to me like you did not go overboard in your preparation. I certainly can't fault you for getting some extra food. I've been buying extra when food is on sale. I don't have a generator, but I have plenty of warm clothes and blankets. That should be enough to get me through a couple of days without power, if need be. (Though again, I think the odds of this happening are small.)

Not that you have advocated this, but some of the more extreme doomers have advocated withdrawing large sums of money from the bank, selling property in the city and moving to a farm in the country, and getting ready with thousands of rounds of ammo to face the coming mobs intent on taking their precious preps. This to me seems a bit extreme.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 12, 1999.

Robin - I hope that the levels of troubles are only that small.

My experience and knowledge of civil/power/infrastrucutre systems, my experience in software testing, and my experience in industrial production, shipping, manufactoring, distribution and wholesale tell me that the levels of failures are going to be very significant in many areas, and will affect the fundemental productivity in millions of processes locally, nationally, and worldwide.

Will everything fail - nope. How much will fail? Don't know. How long will what fail be out of servcie/in reduced service/in poor service but workable? Don't know.

But don't just look at the first level effects - the true impact (in terms of dollars and cents, of lost products and lost business, of discomfort and disruption - will be in the thrid, fourth, and fifth-level interfaces. If you are looking at 3 days, you have been conviced that the effects be limited to power, water, heat, food, and transportation....those are the simple things to fix.

When will we know these impacts - no earlier than the first quarter reports for 2000 for many .... for those that are actually produced, that its.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 12, 1999.

http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/weblinks/hln/y2k/part1/index.html

[snip]

Companies shouldn't expect all Y2K problems to show up on January 1.

According to Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah), "It's going to take several months for the whole thing to play out. And if we are in trouble, it will have to cascade and build over a period of several months and we won't really know until March or April of 2000."

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 13, 1999.

Linkmeister, it looks to me like the Doomers are building their case on two mutually exclusive arguments. Companies have been experiencing y2k failures for years and the frequency of those failures have been increasing since July. If I remember correctly, the Gartner Group said that 25% of all y2k related failures will have occured by turnover. When the Polly points out that businesses have been able to function despite those failures, the typical Doomer response has been either:

1) Yes, but the embedded failures won't hit until January 1

or

2) Yes, but the rate of failures will skyrocket in January and overwhelm the programmer's ability to fix it.

David Way, the head of the IEEE's y2k working group has stated that the impact of reason number 1 has been exaggerated and that embedded systems won't have nearly the impact that some have stated they will.

Now I am hearing that y2k failures will take months to surface. That seems to contradict reason number 2. If the failures will be dragged out over a long period of time than the programmers should be able to work around them, just as they do with the failures (both y2k related and non-y2k related) that surface today.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 13, 1999.

"Now I am hearing that y2k failures will take months to surface. That seems to contradict reason number 2. If the failures will be dragged out over a long period of time than the programmers should be able to work around them, just as they do with the failures (both y2k related and non-y2k related) that surface today."

You ARE a complete MORON Robin aren't you???

You don't have a clue do you???

You are a waste of space.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 13, 1999.

Mr Magnus doesn't have access to his computer anymore. Nor does he have access to his home or preps. Seems he got run out and ran into a Domestic Problem, resulting in restraining orders etc. UGLY SITUATION.""

Restraining order? Can't say I feel sorry for him if the restraining order was against him, they don't put them out on people without a reason.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), December 13, 1999.

Now I am hearing that y2k failures will take months to surface. That seems to contradict reason number 2. If the failures will be dragged out over a long period of time than the programmers should be able to work around them, just as they do with the failures (both y2k related and non-y2k related) that surface today.

Robin,

A lot of problems are closely connected with January. But there's another kind of problem too...the effect on the U.S. of January problems in foreign countries. If Y2K causes disruptions in the global supply chain, the effects of reduced international trade might not be that noticeable until already existing inventories run low.

http://www.capitolalert.com/news/old/capalert01_19990927.html

[snip]

Even if the new millennium arrives with a minimum of computer-induced hassle, though, some experts say Americans still can't become complacent, because Y2K difficulty abroad could gradually snowball into a host of economic troubles that could spill over into the United States.

A report last week by the Senate's special Year 2000 committee warned that unpreparedness in such countries as China, Russia and Italy, along with a handful of oil-supplying nations, could plunge the United States, and even the world, into recession.

"Severe long- and short-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur," the report said.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 13, 1999.

Andy's reponse should be evidence enough that the Doomers are incapable of lucidity when it comes to discussing y2k. If you don't agree with them, then you're a moron, and a total waste of space.

Lesson to remember folks.

And yes the fuse IS getting short. But much like those days when we were kids lighting off firecrackers, there is going to be a big let down when the fuse burns out and there is no *bang*.

Well, a big let down for the doomers anyway.

-- (just@another.programmer), December 13, 1999.

Robin is constantly MESSING with this forum...

I have had plenty of run-ins with this TROLL...

He she it deserves no credence as he she it consistently perverts and twists reasonable discourse. Witness the links linkmeister has given...

You can't argue with a disruptive moron pal.

As I said, a complete waste of space.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 13, 1999.

P.S.

That's we he she it labelled the post "redux"...

We've been through this with he she it many times before...

Just Another Prog seems you're new here and don't know the history - check the archives and find out for yourself, but please don't label me as unable to conduct a civil debate - as I said you can't do this with a TROLL - check out he she it's reports of it's adventures here on another boards.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 13, 1999.

My apologies to everyone else for this rather lengthy OT discussion of Andy's post:

I must agree with Andy on one point: Just Another Programmer, you should check out the archives. You might enjoy this thread in which Andy tells us all about the plans underway to to break up Canada and annex it into the United States.

You will note that Andy quotes David Icke as one of the key sources of information. Please visit David Icke's site Go to the bottom of the page and click on the Reptilian Agenda icon. You will see an ad for a couple of videos Icke has produced:

DAVID ICKE HAS PRODUCED TWO AMAZING VIDEOS WITH THE ZULU "SANUSI" OR SHAMAN, CREDO MUTWA, WHO REVEALS ASTONISHING INFORMATION WHICH, UNTIL NOW, WAS ONLY AVAILABLE TO THE HIGHEST INITIATES OF THE AFRICAN SHAMAN TRADITION.

HE HAS HAD ATTEMPTS ON HIS LIFE AND ENDLESS THREATS IN AN EFFORT TO SILENCE HIM RIGHT UP TO THE RECORDING, BUT, AS CREDO SAYS, "THE WORLD MUST KNOW THIS - AND KNOW IT NOW."

HE REVEALS HOW A SHAPESHIFTING REPTILIAN RACE (THE "CHITAURI" TO AFRICANS) HAS CONTROLLED HUMANITY FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS AND HOW THEIR BLOODLINES ARE IN THE POSITIONS OF ROYAL, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC POWER TODAY.

CREDO MUTWA SUPPORTS ALL THE THEMES OUTLINED IN THE BIGGEST SECRET AND ADDS HIS OWN UNIQUE KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE OF TRAVELLING AFRICA FOR NEARLY 80 YEARS.

THESE VIDEOS WILL RE-WRITE THE UFO/EXTRATERRESTRIAL STORY IN A WAY THAT WILL BLOW YOUR MIND. UFO RESEARCHERS HAVE IGNORED AFRICA AND THEREFORE IGNORED ONE OF THE GREATEST SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE ON THE PLANET.

WHILE PEOPLE STILL ARGUE OVER ROSWELL AND THE EXTRATERRESTRIAL BEINGS APPARENTLY FOUND THERE, AFRICAN TRIBES PEOPLE HAVE BEEN INTERACTING WITH THESE ET "GODS" FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS, SOMETIMES EATING THEM, AS CREDO MUTWA DID ON ONE OCCASION WITH UNFORGETTABLE CONSEQUENCES.

Now most people would consider Icke a prime candidate for the psycho ward, but not so our Andy. It seems that Andy considers Icke to be an authority worth citing.

You might also get a kick out of Andy's Nostradamus' Comet thread. Talk about a waste of space!

But my favorite was Andy's attempt to match withs with Stephen Poole. This is undoubtedly the most hysterical thread ever posted at TB2000. Who can forget this classic?

Andy,

I became involved here in March, which, following in its course the glad festival that was Black History month, was Mental Retardation Awareness month. As bona fides of my heightened consciousness of this national scourge, I pass along some news printed on an old milk carton next to my 15 inch screen, to the effect that some 72 million Americans are mentally retarded, together with the grave addendum that one out of every ten American families is affected thereby.

I have read and re-read this milk carton and confess that while I am forced to feel the kinship with you which generally reserves to the hapless denizens of the animal kingdom, it has made me uneasy in my mind.

Specifically, I am troubled by these considerations.

1) Assuming the data on this milk carton to be accurate, 72 million comprises a startlingly large percentage of the population. Of course it is possible that the writer of the text on the milk carton isn't quite up to snuff himself, in which case all bets are off, but by this measure more than a quarter of the citizenry are mentally retarded (and judging by recent presidential elections most of them are exercising the suffrage ... but I digress.)

You may imagine my dismay, for of course I must on the evidence assume that you are among those 72 million people, which brings me to

2) One of the remarkable side-effects of clinical idiocy in males, which only someone of a pathologically insensitive temperament (itself only with difficulty distinguished from arrested development and concomitant propensity to juvenilia) would find even remotely humorous, is a tendency to priapism, that is to say, a chronic and highly uncomfortable erection, not to be identified with either the hormone frenzy of the mid-adolescent nor the practiced and/or induced arousal of the inveterate roue; no, not the involute compulsions of the lubbricious nor the cold splayings of the jaded whoremaster; not, I say, partaking of the nature of spintriae, faun or satyr, but rather a thing of Physick; a permanent (albeit small) flag which waves Pyrrhically but defiantly; a tiny lighthouse beckoning for Reason and Compassion.

So, as the picture resolves I experience epiphany: I begin to understand you. I have been very, very wrong. You attack me not out of cynical perversity and hatred but because you are mentally retarded, denied even the ordinary portion of rationcinatory gifts which 3 out of 4 of us possess.

Further, as a by-product of your handicap (the drooling, nattering and round-the-clock woody), you have been given Visions and Inner Sight; you probably view in Y2K things which oracles may only dream of acquiring; and now that I understand, I repent me of the guffaws, and I attest the patent truth that you are now and have always been a Certified Victim, with all the rights and privileges attending that high degree, and as a medieval mind with a superstitious reverence for the drooling fools, I cower and abase myself in your shadow for all eternity.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 08, 1999.

Just Another Programer, maybe you can come up with some better Andyisms, but these are my favorites. Andy's thought processes are bizarre, even by Doomer standards. But I would not want him to stop posting here. He is so entertaining.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), December 13, 1999.

Kind of a one man freak show. Now if we can figure out ow to make money off of him.

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), December 13, 1999.

Heh Sysman, there you are, I've been looking for you on all of these "how long do we have to wait for Y2K" threads. Seems like Y2K is like all of these software projects that supposedly never get finished on schedule - its "deadline" keeps getting pushed back.

So how about your rubber stamp? Does it still say that Y2K starts in January, or has the ink run a bit, and got smudged to February  March  April  ?

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

Tartette - whoever you are in your own [mind], you have been outed!

Offski.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 14, 1999.

Oh great, now we have "Computer Pro" on this forum, instead of "Y2K Pro". Sheesh. Where do these people come from?

-- Sheesh (sheesh@pollydrivel.com), December 14, 1999.

Flint:

Reminds me of the time I suggested to an environmental group that they should go up to Prince William Sound, ten years after that "NEVER TO BE RECOVERED FROM" oil spill, tape all the wildlife and so forth, and PROVE THEY WERE RIGHT WHEN THEY CLAIMED IT COULD NEVER RECOVER.

I'm going to get the last of that tar and feathers scraped off any day now.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), December 14, 1999.

All of these pollies are causing me heartburn.

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), December 14, 1999.