D.D. Reed, a 30-year oil industry consultant responds to GN on oil

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Here's the URL:

http://www.soybean.com/10279log.htm

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), November 03, 1999

Answers

I'm thankful for DD's comments, but it still falls short of what we *really* need: citing of concrete examples. I don't mean the real name of employees, their positions, or their employers...but a couple of these would help prove the magnatude of threat that small embedded systems could cause:

* manufacturer, model number, revision number, etc.

of the microcontroller/microprocssor

* _specific_ application, installation type, and

conditions

* type of failure

* any other aplicable info, like an estimate of

how common the configuration is

So far, I've only seen this at the Brit's IEE site:

http://www.iee.org.uk/2000risk/Casebook/eg-27.htm

There must be more than this, especially with industries like oil and natural gas.

I know it's asking a lot, but if *anyone* could step forward and post such specific info, it could help immensely!

Thanks

-- B-17 (flying@fortress.com), November 03, 1999.


wow, didn't take long for the "sincere doubter" type troll to show up, did it. B-17, you'll find those details in several earlier threads on this forum (I think they're still in the current answers file, just look for anything on oil or by R.C.) as well as in the archives. Tell me, why didn't you try looking BEFORE you posted your comment?

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), November 03, 1999.

B17, I understand your uneasiness about the lack of specific data...but it seems to me that that would be like asking for the name, rank, and serial number of every joe in that advancing army that's fixing to open fire on ya, dontcha think? If somebody WERE to post a plethora of positively poisoned parts, how would you or I validate that info? Leave your city, drive to that location, find the processor, check the number, and then say "Yep! That's one needin' swappin' out?" I take it in faith that if only a small percentage of them are toast, over a scale of billions and billions (hey, wuz that Carl Sagan?), then that still means millions and millions are T.U. Its depressing to not have specifics, but enumerating infinity (at least, to the average mortal) is way beyond comprehension and tantamount to counting the sand grains on a beach.

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), November 03, 1999.

BH (and others)

Here are the links to the other threads on the forum (so far)

 Oil Chat
 

 Oil: Questions from G North to DD 1Light. An additon to the "Oil Chat" Thread you may be interested in

B - 17

R.C. and others cover a bit of your topics, but from what I have seen the oil industry likes to be quite on the net. There are some interesting PDF files on system failures but nothing (I have seen) on the oil industry itself. Actually I will see about digging up a couple PDF files. That is where the real dirt is hid. Would the chemical industry help?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 03, 1999.


Actually, I don't doubt anything that RC or DD posted. My gut feeling is that most of the oil industry is FUBAR for Y2k.

I read all of the oil threads more than once. I greatly appreciate RC's effort, but I have yet to see the "witnessed" and documented failure of an in-place embedded system, as the IEE report showed.

I am not a polly or a troll...about as far from it as possible.

-- B-17 (flying@fortress.com), November 03, 1999.



Also, such specific info is somewhat "self-validating".

i.e. "Motorolo HC-16 processor, rev 5a, custom EPROM, 10" flow- control valve, etc."

(Yes I mispelled the manufacturer's name on purpose :)

-- B-17 (flying@fortress.com), November 03, 1999.


OK, B-17, assuming your sincerity is genuine, I apologize for my earlier comment. This board has been overrun lately with polly trolls posing the kind of questions you offered, and perhaps I fell into the trap of assuming you were one of them. Of course, that would be one more way they can disrupt this board, isn't it -- by making us all suspicious of sincere questions.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), November 03, 1999.

What about us poor "POOMERS" who have been lurking in the background? Who/what/where/why are we supposed to believe?

-- Ken Jackson (kjackso@max.state.ia.us), November 03, 1999.

No problem, Cash. It's hard to tell who's who anymore.

Uh, what's a "poomer"?

-- B-17 (flying@fortress.com), November 03, 1999.


Wild cat found in western states...made famous by Tom and Dick Smothers.....

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), November 03, 1999.


a "Poomer" is someone like me, who is sitting on the fence about the whole deal...part of me is a Polly hoping that everything will be OK, and part is a Doomer, preparing for what can only be described as TSHTF...

-- Ken Jackson (kjackso@max.state.ia.us), November 03, 1999.

B-17 sounds like Poole, If you want the facts go do your homework. Unless you can contribute something useful like how to better serve our community thru the shitstorm called y2k that is comming in a little under two months dont bother us with your useless drival. our planet is facing a crisis. High risk of nuclear war, environmental and social upheaveal and corrupt govts consolodating their monopoly on power. Be more useful, if your not sure that y2k will be a problem you are ignorant.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), November 03, 1999.

Y2K aware mike mentioned

"B-17 sounds like Poole"

For just a few short sentences that is quite a judgement. There was no reason at all to assume that B - 17 is Poole. He is asking a ligit question and to get the answer you would have to get into the password protected sites on the API site. Not something that they hand out to regular forum members.

Besides Poole would never say that he expects the oil industry is FUBAR.

It is that kind of knee jerk reaction that have the trolls laughing amoung themselves. The problem is they are right.

Less than thoughtfull folk should engage brain before typing.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 03, 1999.


B - 17 This looks like the best place to get the information you want

American Petroleum Institute

 Year 2000 Database

The Y2KDB was created to foster sharing of critical
 information related to the Year 2000 testing of
 software, hardware, embedded systems, and
 related components. The petroleum industry
 recognizes the incredible expense of each company
 testing every piece of equipment and hopes that
 the development of this resource will greatly
 improve the overall situation.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 03, 1999.


Brian,

That information you cite is confidential and restricted to membership only. I'm sure all of us would love to get our hands on it. I just got off the phone today with one of my sources who has related some further negative information regarding oil, but I am under a complete gag order at this point to reveal anything further of that conversation. All I can say is that in the past few weeks, I've seen oil folks getting increasingly intense. This seems to have happened about 3 to 4 weeks after I posted Report #2. At this point its easy to look back now and see the progression of change...slow at first. Some of those previous oil contacts who'd been "happy talkers" and even pollys began to slowly get nervous at the way their superiors were acting. I've not heard from all of my key contacts lately but those that I have heard from their tone/attitude is growing more and more somber, with some disgust. I think most were half hoping that their company was the only one in trouble. It seems there's now an indication that some of these companies now are indeed sharing info and gloom is beginning to set in within some quarters. I think that by Thanksgiving, we'll begin to have a much better feel for the oil industry's "End Game" (to borrow a term from the game of Chess).

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 03, 1999.



B-17,

If you want the details on those "smoking guns" that I posted on the DD Oil thread... go back to the URL for Hughes Baker Inc. and go to the various subidiary companies within and go to their products page updates.... once there, click on the models that are linked to another page that gives further details including some of the Siemens controlers... I think S-5 may have been one of those. But these are the oil industries parts that are KNOWN NOT TO BE COMPLIANT and yes these have failed. Take this companies word's for fact. This company sold them in the first place! Now, by law they're required to notify their clients what is compliant, what is not and what alternative new products might be available. This companies list ought to end any issue of doubt in your mind that the oil industry has indeed many different embedded systems models that have problems.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 03, 1999.


B-17,

If you want the details on those "smoking guns" that I posted on the DD Oil thread... go back to the URL for Hughes Baker Inc. and go to the various subidiary companies within and go to their products page updates.... once there, click on the models that are linked to another page that gives further details including some of the Siemens controlers... I think S-5 may have been one of those. But these are the oil industries parts that are KNOWN NOT TO BE COMPLIANT and yes these have failed. Take this companies word's for fact. This company sold them in the first place! Now, by law they're required to notify their clients what is compliant, what is not and what alternative new products might be available. This company's list ought to end any issue of doubt in your mind that the oil industry has indeed many different embedded systems models that have problems. What you see listed on their site regarding non-compliant systems are systems that have been around awhile and were placed onto countless oil wells both on and off-shore.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 03, 1999.


Thanks for the "roadmap", RC. Sounds like a good start.

I started to "swim" thru the HughesBaker site a few days ago and quickly got buried.

Again, I don't doubt your conclusions...I just need to get down to the "nitty-gritty" details.

-- B-17 (flying@fortress.com), November 04, 1999.


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