Oil Chatgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 17:18:55 -0700 From: "Rich" Subject:Oil Chat - very long post This is an edited version of the chat Jon Hylands participated in Oct 26 regarding Y2K and Oil. It's still very long but worth the read. There is real difficulty getting to read or download from the original URL but here it is in text form. Understand I did the best I could to keep out the noise while maintaining the signal but some may argue what's what. If you print this out in 12 point Times New Roman it should come to 12 pages. If you don't get the bejeebers scared out of you from this, you must already be living a self sufficient life in the wilderness. Jon Hylands has had private conversations with DD and can vouch that she is for real. A private conversation I had with Greg Caton (who had a two hour phone conversation with her last night) agrees with this. Read it and weep.
Rich _______
(Allaha) DD, tell us about your background.
(DD1stLight) I am a top problem solver/facilitator in the oil/gas industry so have a broader picture than most in my industry. Have been working with some large independents (none of the 'public' companies will admit or do much) that are doing what they can to ensure as large an output as they can.
(Ryker) How's things in the oil industry?
(DD1stLight) Actually I am working on a job that is geared to propane, so it feels good to be doing things that will actually aid these problems. I am in Corpus Christi right now. None of the work I am doing is close enough to my home to help us out, but it will aid some.
(Ryker) I've heard conflicting reports on oil supply. One person says there's a 6 month supply stored up in US. Other reports I've heard say about 30 days. Which is right?
(DD1stLight) Neither. The 'strategic petroleum reserve' is a bit of a myth. It is very poor grade and the ability to pump it out and then refine it is very limited. There is about a 3 1/4 day supply of refined product available in the system in normal times.
(Hylands) Since the SPR is stored in caverns, I would suspect contamination problems.
(Ryker) So, the claim of 6 month supply stored up is WAY off base?
(DD1stLight) Well, it is MAYBE 6 months of very limited basic usage, but it would take a couple of years to get it out, transport, refine, etc. so it is basically a myth. We have deep problems some of which are not fixable period
(Ryker) The reserve is not for public use, just for military, power plants, and distribution of essential goods?
(DD1stLight) Generally but even that would be improbable at best. After January, public use - even rationed - is out of the question given the short supply.
(Hylands) That would spiral into an economic collapse so fast it wouldn't be funny
(Ryker) I know... Think we're headed for that anyway...
(DD1stLight) I see absolutely no way that economy will not fall very flat on its face. Remember, that at the very worst in the 70's "oil crisis" we were dealing with a 7% reduction in availability. I will be jumping up and down if my industry can supply 45% of today's refined product, (and remember that is only about 40% at best of our daily usage at present) (jcollins) How would this affect the local production of oil? Booming times for local crude?
(DD1stLight) Local crude is in deep trouble, problems down hole not possible to fix, then have to get to refineries (which are band-aided to pieces as it is) then distribution etc. But some of the biggest problems are that we have few 1 for 1 replacement chips. So we have to re-blueprint DAB's etc. and that takes many long months most times
(Ryker) And chip plants are overseas which involves other problems (y2kworried) So, it sounds like it will take a long time to get oil production back.
(DD1stLight) That's right. There are no quick fixes for lots of things
(Hylands) If it takes more than a few weeks to get it back, I don't think it's going to happen at all
(DD1stLight) Lots of power companies are stocking 2 to 4 weeks of fuel so we don't expect most problems to become critical until 3rd week of January. For the first time in my life I find myself agreeing with the Dept of Defense. They are figuring contingencies on 30% availability of today's supply of oil and gas.
(Hylands) Susie, any new news on the Fed Reserve dude?
(susie0884) The guy, who retired from the Fed, was planning to spend the winter in the Northern mountains. Will be there before Nov. and to get out of DC where he is presently. Who goes to MT or ID for the winter?
(DD1stLight) People for the most part are so terrified of it crashing that they will and are doing lots in hopes they can keep it afloat etc. Remember that half of all American households are invested in the stock market or commodities and most of them are hip deep in debt to boot. Amazing the number who have taken out home equity loans and used all or part to invest in the market. Scary
(GregCaton) I have been getting reports this week about likely disruptions in oil supply, mostly foreign. I got a call this morning from a good friend in San Antonio who has a business associate (retired full-bird colonel from Navy) who has been overseas recently and confirms that very little remediation is being done where it needs to be in oil.
(DD1stLight) Well, foreign has big troubles but not much worse than our own, I am sorry to say
(TymeNTide) My company in Alabama has about 1000 employees, in my case. not more than 10 compliant computers in the entire biz..... still "working on it".....
(DD1stLight) sounds about right from what I am getting from buddies who arestill overseas (most of which have come on home already). The best we can figure is 26% to 34% of today's availability, sorry wish it was better news.If oil production is over 40% I will be dancing in the street. I am looking for a minimum 60% drop in availability. Anyone want to hear a true story?
(Hylands) Sure, DD1
(DD1stLight) The 3rd week of July last year Mobil Oil got their 'analysis' for remediation. It was $460 Million + and over 3 1/2 years. They came back 2 weeks later and asked for a new analysis with differing base criteria. About 6 weeks later they did a 'merger' with Exxon, remember? 11 majors have since done similar things and the number of filings to reorganize into limited liability companies and partnerships is amazing. The majors are joining and the front companies will fold under and the back up companies will reestablish when they can. Why would an industry let itself start the big problems now when they can cash in for however many months they can? Like Exxon front, Mobil back etc. The back up companies are taking the cash and will start again under new names when they can.
(GregCaton) Is this to avoid the effects of litigation? Distinguish between front and back companies.
(Dean--DuhMoyn) Do they think deflation will cause all prices to drop, so a long is a big gamble?
(DD1stLight) To take a "long" you have to figure there will be enough to go around somehow. This move is for litigation and the surety that they will fail on supply contracts. Remember they have had experience at being made the "bad-guy" to the American public. They learned well.
(GregCaton) But with something like this, no one can believe that there is a basis to single out oil companies and make them a whipping boy. Want a whipping boy for Y2K? Microsoft is a far more likely candidate. From asupply / demand situation... what is the basis for thinking that there will be a deflation in oil anytime soon?
(DD1stLight) Supply has deep problems. Our refineries are some of the oldest and nastiest there are and we have been unable to build new ones in this country for many years now. They are band-aided to the max now. Remediation for most is next to impossible. It is MUCH cheaper to build new when they can.
(GregCaton) Yes, DD, but you are assuming that the laws of supply and demand will go out the window
(DD1stLight) Nope, supply and demand are basic but when the supply falls so far below even the minimal demand, people will get very angry. We had this situation in the past.
(Hylands) So, does the govt know this, or are the oil companies lying to them?
(DD1stLight) Read the Senate 100 day Y2K report, go to the utilities section. http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001eAu and look at the part about oil/gas, and pay close attention to how they got their numbers
(GregCaton) Explain.
(DD1stLight) 8000+ letters sent to producers and only got back 450+ answers. Not many, so they just decided to use the 66 companies that they saw as most major and still their scenarios are a bit daunting. They tried to put a good face on it even then. (underpaid) I'm working on a holiday story - "The Glitch that stole Christmas" All through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a two button mouse!
(GregCaton) When will the problem get out of control?
(DD1stLight) Expecting things to get sticky big time around the 3rd week of January.
(GregCaton) Is there a probability curve here? Or are you speaking with surety?
(DD1stLight) I have spent a good bit of time for the last 10 years gathering solid date, good math from my industry where possible. I like good numbers and want them to be verifiable in at least 2 ways; 3 is better. I would say this is real. The best I can come up with is 26 to 34% of current supply, optimistically 46%
(GregCaton) Is there anyone here who doesn't believe that if we had 60% drop in oil for 30 days, than we wouldn't be (a la Howard Ruff) at 2,000 Dow in 2000 ?
(Hylands) If it lasts for 30 days, it's all over
(Ryker`) Greg, if we have a 60% drop in oil for 30 days, the stock market won't be around any more...
(GregCaton) it will be around. Dormant, perhaps. Even under 2,000 points... but still around
(DD1stLight) I am trying to be optimistic, am hoping for 40% availability of today's supplies being available (underpaid) Loss of oil flow - candling of pipelines - problems with tankers/ports - VERRRRY SERIOUS - End of economy PERIOD.
(Tulladew) Gasoline might be expensive, even if rationed
(DD1stLight) Rationed assumes there will be enough for basic services with some left over. These amounts are not sufficient for basic services etc. I expect nationalization at the least
(DD1stLight) Can anyone here think of a single industry that is not wholly or secondarily reliant upon the oil/gas industry? Refineries take several years to build even at critical speed, pipelines the same, wells take a while too etc.
(GregCaton) How long have you held these convictions, as to percentages, time line, etc ?
(DD1stLight) Greg, the first time I jumped up and down in a corporate board room about Y2K was in 1976. I started gathering serious data about 8 years ago as I saw little being done still about my industry specifically
(GregCaton) What caused you to be so concerned in 76 ?
(DD1stLight) I needed to input 1800's info into the computers and could not.
(GregCaton) 1800's info? Why?
(DD1stLight) My industry pays people who own the land/mineral interests according to the % the own so is very important, also for getting the rights by lease to explore for oil/gas etc. Deeds and court suits from the 1800's are many times still in effect today.
(Ryker`) Can I try to summarize to see if I got all this? You're saying that there may be a 60% drop in oil supply that will become evident about the 3rd week of January. And this drop may last years due to Y2K computer problems at everything from oil wells to refineries?
(DD1stLight) Yes. Add to that problems when/if a system that is down-hole is noncompliant. A system that is physically located several hundred or thousand feet below the surface and is totally not accessible, and therefore cannot easily be fixed.
(GregCaton) Were they really that stupid ????
(DD1stLight) give him a cigar, yes. Redrill IF you can, but it is not possible to redrill many and get production again.
(Hylands) Greg, some of the natural gas wells up here in Alberta are dug 20,000 feet down
(GregCaton) DD1 ) And these deep wells do NOT have manual overrides?
(DD1stLight) not stupid, maybe ignorant - scariest thing i am seeing is some of the simplified assumptions that so many are making in remediation analysis
(Ryker`) It comes down to short term profits. If they can drill the well and start making money immediately, that's all they were worried about... Didn't want to spend time to redesign systems to make them compliant for an event that was years in the future...
(DD1stLight) EPA requires that the wells have RAMS - that is a great big snap valve that closes shut if there is a problem with the well that would/could make it unsafe/blowout etc. EPA required immediate response and actually very few people ever really gave it much thought
(GregCaton) I know this will sound eerie. There is talk about the incredible accuracy of the Mayan calendar, and how the year 2012 is supposed to be the end of a technical area. Maybe it's coming 12 years early. If even half of this about oil is true... you're painting a picture of Gary North / Paul Milne as dim-witted pollys. This is the most incredible thing that anyone has told me in the year and a half I've been looking into Y2K.
(y2kworried) The implications are staggering, our whole economy is based on automobile and truck transportation, and planes, and ships, and locomotives
(DD1stLight) Even hydro electric is totally reliant upon large amounts of very specific lubricant
(GregCaton) How many in upper management fully grasp / accept what you are now saying ?
(DD1stLight) Some. Most are like most people. They really do not want tolook at the possibilities. Can't say I blame them. It's not like one guy knows the ins and outs of how his product is drilled, pumped, refined, distributed, etc.
(GregCaton) Is there the slightest doubt in your mind that this all equates to a depression more serious than the 30's ?
(DD1stLight) NONE. I am in a very unique position in that I am consultant to most majors and many minors and have been around so long I can get info
(GregCaton) How is it then that you would have a broad interdisciplinary overview... but few others in the board room would ???
(DD1stLight) Because I am a mean old lady who is more likely to kick someone on IT than kiss IT so I work strictly on contract. Also have more degrees than carter has pills and am known in the industry. I do everything from facilitate the sales of major companies to figure out how to get around a bottleneck at a refinery.
(GregCaton) Alright. (WIPING THE BLACKBOARD CLEAN..) Let's start fresh and talk about how this impacts the Inflation vs. Deflation arguments. Where do you stand on this issue? Inflationary Depression? Deflationary Depression? A complete economic collapse?
(DD1stLight) most of the old stripper wells have been plugged, few left really but no the refineries are in worse shape than the wells
(Hylands) No commercial airplanes. Think about that for a minute.
(DD1stLight) we need to remember that $ is only worth anything because we all agree it is, when we stop agreeing we call it inflation or deflation. Most workers I talk to think it is only this plant that has problems. Another example of ostrich syndrome which is very understandable from a psychological viewpoint.
(GregCaton) DD .... feeling like we really ARE the first people in the first Titanic lifeboat.
(Hylands) Exactly my point.
(GregCaton) Amazing when you consider than 99.8% of the people in society reading this would think we're all psychotic.
(Hylands) Airplanes, trains, transport trucks, ships, electrical generation, you name it
(GregCaton) How much have the electric utilities done to stockpile gas, oil, coal, etc. (DD1stLight) best I can find is that most are attempting to store an average of 3 weeks supply Some, like TU in east Texas, have their own coal mines and rails to them, but only have the ability to store about 4 weeks of lubricants
(GregCaton) So then the SHTF in late January?
(DD1stLight) Yes
(y2kworried) What is even more important: that oil is the basis of food production
(Hylands) oil is the basis of electricity, thus it is the basis for just about everything
(GregCaton) I know this will sound eerie ) There is a lot of talk now about the incredible accuracy of the Mayan calendar, and how the year 2012 is supposed to be the end of a technical area. Maybe it's coming 12 years early. If even half of this about oil is true... you're painting a picture of Gary North / Paul Milne as dim-witted pollys.
(DD1stLight) most fertilizer is made from natural gas condensates. I have looked and looked for years now at every industry i can see becoming more dependant upon oil/gas and computers. NOT less. Tenneco and Chevron actually came clean on their last year's Q10 third quarter reports and stated they expect to have about 30% production available after Y2K
(DD1stLight) i keep hearing about the 'national grid system' which is a joke. texas has its own grid NO major AC connection to any other and only 2 main DC's for ballast
(Hylands) There are four main grids in North America
(Alwyn) San Onofre Nuclear Plant here sounded the all clear today...forty people, three years, $10 million and repaired or replaced over 300 components./
(DD1stLight) The Texas grid is totally integrated, all have it or none have it, not possible to 'island' anywhere in Texas
(GregCaton) DD1 ) So... let's define what "10" means. In your mind will this cause the collapse of the U.S. Government as we know it?
(DD1stLight) government as we now know it, may well be. Some form of government will remain though. It is why the very best minds I know have already stopped taking contracts or if employee just did not show up for work one day and left no forwarding address
(Ryker`) Greg? Have you risen your estimate to a 10 now?
(GregCaton) If you live in Watts... it will be a 10. But if you're a self-sufficient farmer living in Colorado... it might be a 3 as far as you're concerned. Don't know.
(DD1stLight) You got it, Greg. That's why I opt for 8.5 is a mean
(Hylands) Greg, how many people do you think depend on electricity, even rural farmers?
(GregCaton) Hylands - There are some farmers who have only had power since the '30's... I think that farmers, with or without oil, are steeped in a tradition of hardship and "having to make due". "A country boy can survive..."
(Hylands) Exactly, how many? I'll bet it's not many. Now, we're pretty smart, so we'll figure a lot of stuff out, but still...
(Hylands) How many farms can irrigate their crops with a hand well pump? How many farmers today can grow their crops without bought seeds, fertilizer, diesel tractors, etc?
(DD1stLight) Few, and mules and oxen are a lost art to most and not available or trained etc. not like a tractor you can't just build one you have to grow it . And those horses are for the most part "pets" LOL
(Alwyn) They are pets, in the sense that they don't pull a plow. But, they are a resource.
(GregCaton) I'd say enough farms for about 10% of the people to make it.
(Hylands) Greg, that's about my figure, 10% . Yep, can you be sustainable with water, food, heat, and sanitation. People, without clean drinking water, will die
(GregCaton) So that's the task: be one out of the ten. (New slogan for the Marine Corp): "We're looking for a few good one out of tens!"
(DD1stLight) for goodness sakes folks DO NOT just take my word for all this, do your own research, there is plenty available on the net for you tosee, just go to the real sites etc., check out the defense departments contingency plan figures for oil/gas. I think the biggest killers besides cholera, typhus, thyphoid and diptheria and dysentery. Will be pure old culture shock
(Hylands) This is why I think a 2 year food supply is a wise idea
(DD1stLight) I have to thank Hylander for inviting me to this room, it is good to be able to talk to people who have more than 2 brain cells to rub together and play with and are not caught into immobility by fear etc. * Hylands takes a bow
(Alwyn) Ryker...you can go low-tech and cheap on the purifier...Pur has systems for $30 that do everything a Kaytadn (sp) does for $300.
(Hylands) Alwyn, problem with the PUR is it won't do 20,000 gallons, and the Katadyn will
(GregCaton) DD1 )) Allow me to give you some perspective. Speaking personally, we're got two cisterns, a water well, (motor and manual)... 24 solar panels (75 watts each) within a complete solar system... protection (won't elaborate)... ham radio equipment (I'm an Extra Class holder)..... who would do this if they didn't take Y2K seriously?
(DD1stLight) the RAMs located down-hole in the wells, we know that there are a goodly number that are NOT ok, when they malfunction we know (by actual testing) that they close the RAMs which cannot be reopened, cannot get to them to reset etc.
(Gary_Seattle) but Katadyn might not handle all of the stuff pur gets rid of
(Hylands) DD1, I'm really glad you came, and hereby invite you back again every Tuesday, same time
(DD1stLight) well we have cisterns, well, food etc. (actually can feed about 300+ people for about 3 months) but not much in the way of electricity generating, no radios etc.
(DD1stLight) one of the scariest assumptions i see people making is "it's analog, look no further" SHEEEEEESH!!! Many date sensitive chips were used in nondate related places because they were cheap, available, and did the job
(Aubrey) I've got a First Need deluxe and a simple Pur pitcher that will take out everything up to virus size particles
(DD1stLight) nite tyme, would not blame yall if you dreaded the day I came in. LOL and kicked Hylander for bringing me
(underpaid) DD1 - thanks for the doom! I like to keep those stress muscles worked out - gotta go bye
(DD1stLight) still working with a couple of large independents that are racing to get small gas fields with propane generating capabilities up for the turnover so some will be available more
(DD1stLight) I really am called DD
(Hylands) DD1, I'm curious, have you noticed an increase in refinery explosions over the past year or so?
(DD1stLight) Not really. Lots of major breakdowns, but that is to be expected from antiquated refineries. What I cant figure out is how so many miss the implications of my industry. Its like most do not even think about it in the equation. I see it even in people who are honestly looking for real info. Come to think of it, why would most know much about it? It is a very 'closed' mouth industry, very competitive.
(Gary_Seattle) One thing I think DD1, we should keep quiet in our little neighborhoods about what we are doing
(DD1stLight) I try to respect the choices of those who do not choose to see all this, not my way, but must be appropriate for them
(GregCaton) It's like Gary North says... if they aren't preparing by now, spreading the word is more likely to hurt you. It is one thing to prepare for neighbors. It is another thing to jeopardize your family by alerting the entire community.
(DD1stLight) we are all adult and agree to our course. I am an Elder of my people and such is our way. Have large greenhouses that will be in full production as well, and know all native plants.
(Guest75909) Tell us of your people.
(DD1stLight) I am of small band called Kee-Apa. And we also have much of medicines etc. We are from West Texas, kind of a mix of Comanche, Kiowa and Apache. There is no hospital there. How many are getting full vaccinations for cholera etc. so you can help those who get it? I am what this society calls a medicine woman and older partner is called the medicine man. I sit on the pan-american council of elders, so do much like when honduras and nicaragua got hit by Hurricane Mitch. The indigenous peoples there did not get govt help. By the time we can get in all diabetics etc. are already gone, worse death rate is usually from dysentery and parasites.
(GregCaton) DD1 ) I wanted to get back to some earlier unanswered questions that we couldn't cover because of all the chatter traffic.... At what point did it become apparent to you that this was an unavoidable train wreck ? Gary North likes to say that, for him, it was early 97.
(DD1stLight) About 3 years ago was about the last point that we could have really gotten it done to point that train would not derail or wreck takes many months to reblueprint DAB's etc.
(DD1stLight) and i speak of my industry there
(GregCaton) In other words, if they had put all their resources into remediation in late 1996, it might have been avoided?
(DD1stLight) YES. Almost certainly. I bought my house with it in mind 6years ago, did not see much of anything being done and seemed improbable it would even then.
(GregCaton) I see. I asked you earlier if you saw any chance we wouldn't see (at the least) a 30's style depression, and you said NONE.
(DD1stLight) And do not forget that for this last year oil prices have been in the basement, Everyone liked the low prices but it took needed funds away when they were needed most, as the slump a couple of years ago did, too.
(DD1stLight) depression requires a base economy and ability to do much, don't think we will have it. Hope we will and that depression is the worst it will be
(Gary_Seattle) We don't have a base economy, we produce almost nothing
(DD1stLight) With currency that is not based in metals. It is only based in peoples opinion of the value of $. We have not even been able to feed our own population since the early 90's
(GregCaton) I have a friend who knows Ed Yardeni quite well. He says that in private, Yardeni paints a picture of extreme depression.
(DD1stLight) I am not surprised, kind of figured that Ed was burned out, and who could blame him. He has been vocal and would not like to be the roman messenger etc.
(GregCaton) DD1 ) Actually, the U.S. remains one of the world's largest exporters of food stuffs.
(DD1stLight) Foodstuffs, yes. But we have a population that demands large amounts of all products available year round
(Dean--DuhMoyn) What about deflation? For the first 3 months, then after. Will there be a US economy?
(Guest75909) The U.S. is a food exporter. Our graineries are stuffed to overflowing
(DD1stLight) but we import more than we export in edible human foods.
(GregCaton) I guess that depends on what we call edible.
(DD1stLight) graneries yes (with a rail system that cannot still seem to move it around sufficiently for a lot to not rot, due to the computer problems still of merging the UP with ATSF
(Gary_Seattle) The Dept of Agriculture does not have a huge food back up supply
(DD1stLight) ever seen anyone on a forced diet that was any fun to be around? LOL
(Guest75909) only as a matter of taste, and I will check that out...doesn't sound right.
(DD1stLight) check out the produce from s. america, mexico etc. also. We use to feed the world I know, is a hard pill that we have let so very many family farms go under.
(Gary_Seattle) food from Mexico and S. America is full of garbage. In Mexico they use DDT.
(Guest75909) they got rid of food reserve program when they went to food stamps.
(mebs) Where do our big canners get most of their produce?
(DD1stLight) I see the acres of greenhouses in far west texas growing momoculture vegetables
(Guest75909) produce from south america, mexico is seasonal...we can have tomatoes and strawberries year around
(DD1stLight) tomatoes are main thing they are growing out there yes
(Guest75909) agribusiness is very efficient
(DD1stLight) any here old enough to remember when citrus was seasonal to buy here? or any of a dozen other items of produce we would all today consider a staple and be shocked it was not at store? I remember when local store had only onions, potatoes carrots year round
(Guest75909) I drive through the San Joaquin valley at various times of the year...the great garden of the world.
(DD1stLight) yes and i must say I really do like it. I would be most happy to see this all be a great big product of fertile imaginations.... but I donot seem to be able to live in that level of fantasy. I am extremely lazy and would like to stay that way
(Ryker) DD1... just out of curiosity, do you think the human race needs something like this to happen? To help slap us back to reality?
(DD1stLight) don't know about needing it but historically it seems to be a bit inevitable that something comes along. Interesting that so many cultures have prophesies that all are showing intriguing signs. Funny thing about TEOTWAWKI is that that seems to happen about every 30 years or so anyway, even without a big bang.
(Guest75909) DD) I asked earlier about shutdowns during rollover...is that going to be the norm in Texas?
(DD1stLight) I have heard some of the refineries and chemical plants talking of such and a couple have announced it like at Deerpark.
(Ryker) How old are you if you don't mind me asking??
(DD1stLight) Actually I do not really know but am probably in mid fifties. Just grew with old style people.
(GregCaton) I don't see it. Can you really think of anything, worldwide, to happen to civilization, that could be as big a meltdown as this? Anything at all that you could compare to?
(DD1stLight
-- Oil Chat (Oil@chat.com), October 31, 1999
(DD1stLight) I know it is impossible, no matter how hard I try, to grasp the real possibilities. The only thing I know for sure is that whatever scenario I come up with cannot be the whole of it(Gary_Seattle) One thing no one brought up tonight are the solar flares coming (not to change subjects) to cause further disruptions
(GregCaton) Ham radio operators are already feeling its effects. On some nights there's very little HF traffic.
(DD1stLight) How about that mass coronal ejection on June 2? That was a biggy MCE's that size were theoretically possible yes, but was the first we really got to measure.
(GregCaton) Gary ... any news from your programmer friends in the field ????
(Gary_Seattle) are you familiar with Fleetwood Mac? "tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies..."
(GregCaton) That's it? They just tell you that everybody's lying about compliance?
(DD1stLight) Read carefully. Most 'statements' do not outright lie. They just leave out important issues. Tell me a single utility that has even broached the subject of fuel supplies.
(Ryker) Sounds a bit like the NERC reports. "Fill out this form so we know how we're doing. Oh, by the way. Here's what you should put on the form......" :\
(Gary_Seattle) Officially we are Y2K compliant. I got lucky, I was in the hospital the day I was supposed to sign the paper saying compliant.
(DD1stLight) what scares me is the companies who have spent only a fraction of their budget
(Dean--DuhMoyn) DD -- my electric company (Alliant) suggested getting extra firewood, a generator, water, food, etc.
(DD1stLight) I sent a letter to the co-op overseers in the state gov with some very tough questions. They did not reply, but sent them to my local co-op. The manager did not even understand the questions nor did any there.
(Gary_Seattle) so Greg, are you more or less optimistic today about Y2K?
(GregCaton) If even half of this is truth, I'm edging closer to 9.5 (major disaster)
(DD1stLight) Greg I was reading again today about all you bad boys who are 'hyping' all this stuff to make the big bucks. I wish to heck I was lying through my teeth
(GregCaton) Anyone who thinks we're getting rich on Y2K is wrong.
(Rodig) Is it just me, or does anyone else live 2 lives, one preparing for big problems and one planning as if nothing is going to happen at all?
(GregCaton) Rodig ) No... you are not alone in this. Forgive me if all this seems surrealistic, even though I've been studying the issue this long.
(Guest75909) preparing yes, and living the current life, yes...working everyday, yes
(DD1stLight) In some ways I think it is harder now that we are all prepped. The doing was a comfort for a long time. Anyone get solace from stepping into their pantry from time to time?
(Gary_Seattle) I still am shocked by the media saying nothing about the coming storm
(DD1stLight) what actually could they say that would not just start the hard times sooner?
(GregCaton) NBC has scheduled a TV movie about Y2K Movie for November 21.
(DD1stLight) I'm looking at November 17th with interest. That's when theLeonid meteor storm hits and we ain't talking a shower, folks. This wouldbe the first we have really had since we had satellites. Could be interesting. Last year it was not as close and they were able to turn the satellites 12 % to have the smallest face to it and could still get enough solar to operate. Two only were hit. Well now that I have probably succeeded in giving some nightmares, I must say it has been good to be able to talk truth tonight.
(Guest75909) DD...could you recap for those who came late to the party?
(DD1stLight) Best figures we can come up with is 26 to 34% of today's available supplies of oil/gas and refined products being available through about the 3rd, week of January. Even if was the reverse and was only a 30% decrease, it would be a very bad time. The worst of the 70's 'oil crisis' was about a 7% reduction. Figure no gasoline available to the general public after January
(Guest75909) Is that caused by refining problems here, transportation problems from overseas, or a combination of causes? (the usual suspects...chips, power problems, software snafus)
(Ryker) all of the above and then some
-- Rest (The rest@test.here), October 31, 1999.
You are right, this is scarey. However, please provide some information about the people referenced in the post. What are their qualifications? Where is the link?
-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
Paging Dog One! Didn't you say on an earlier post that the contention that there are unaccessible chips 'down holes' is BS? This article also contends that there have been refineries, like Deer Park (Shell), that are doing planned shut downs for the rollover. If this is the case I'm not aware of it. Anyone have any info?Also who are Jon Hylands and Greg Canton? Who's DD?
-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 31, 1999.
Did Tenneco and Chevron really come out and say they'd be reduced to 30% of current production in last years 3rd quarter 10Q? This is surely checkable, and certainly the first I've heard of it.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 31, 1999.
(snip)(GregCaton) I have been getting reports this week about likely disruptions in oil supply, mostly foreign. I got a call this morning from a good friend in San Antonio who has a business associate (retired full-bird colonel from Navy) who has been overseas recently and confirms that very little remediation is being done where it needs to be in oil.
(end snip)
I'm no expert on the Navy, but a search of a U.S. Navy Web site doesn't include "colonel" among the possible Navy officer's ranks. There are various combinations that include the words ensign, lieutenant, commander, and admiral, but there's no reference to colonel.
Someone feel free to correct this observation if it's wrong...
-- Don (whytocay@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
1) Greg Caton (Lumen Foods). Ring a bell??2) Rank mentioned MIGHT be a MARINE rank, and sometimes folks DO mix the 2 SIDES of THAT BRANCH.
Night train
-- a TIRED travelin footballer (nighttr@in.com), October 31, 1999.
Located here: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/l/c/chv.html August 5, 1999 CHEVRON CORP (CHV) Quarterly Report (SEC form 10-Q) MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Year 2000 Problem - The Year 2000 problem is the result of computer systems and other equipment with embedded chips or processors using two digits, rather than four, to define a specific year and potentially being unable to process accurately certain data before, during or after 2000. This could result in system failures or miscalculations, causing disruptions to various activities and operations.
Chevron has established a corporate-level Year 2000 project team to coordinate the efforts of teams in the company's operating units and corporate departments to address the Year 2000 issue in three major areas: information technology, embedded systems and supply chain. Information technology includes the computer hardware, systems and software used throughout the company's facilities. Embedded systems exist in automated equipment and associated software, which are used in the company's exploration and production facilities, refineries, transportation operations, chemical plants and other business operations. Supply chain includes the third parties with which Chevron conducts business. The company also is monitoring the Year 2000 efforts of its equity affiliates and joint-venture partners. Progress reports on the Year 2000 project are presented regularly to the company's senior management and periodically to the Audit Committee of the company's Board of Directors.
The company is addressing the Year 2000 issue in three overlapping phases: (1) identification and assessment of all critical equipment, software systems and business relationships that may require modification or replacement prior to 2000; (2) resolution of critical items through remediation and testing of modifications, replacement, or development of alternative business processes; and (3) development of contingency and business continuation plans for critical items to mitigate any disruptions to the company's operations.
Chevron intends to address all critical items prior to 2000. Phase 1 - identification and assessment - is complete. Regarding Phase 2, the company estimates that at June 30, 1999, over 85 percent of embedded systems issues had been completed, along with over 90 percent of information technology issues. The company expects Phase 2 to be essentially finished by the end of the third quarter 1999. Phase 3 - contingency planning - is also scheduled for completion at the end of the third quarter. At June 30, 1999, the company estimates that it had completed over 80 percent of the work in this area.
The company used a risk-based analysis of its operations to identify those items deemed to be "mission critical," defined as having the potential for significant adverse effects in one or more of five areas: environmental protection, safety, ongoing business relationships, financial and legal exposure, and company credibility and image. Over 400 items of varying degrees of complexity in the company's own operations and about 800 third-party relationships have been deemed mission-critical. Many mission-critical items already have been found to be compliant, while others are undergoing remediation and testing. The company's major financial systems and desktop computer systems were upgraded in separate projects and are already compliant. Chevron is corresponding with all mission-critical third parties and has met with a large percentage of them, either alone or with other potentially affected parties, to determine the relative risks of major Year 2000-related problems and to determine how to mitigate such risks. Additional items and third-party relationships may be added to or removed from this population, as more information becomes available.
Using practical risk assessment and testing techniques, Chevron has divided its list of more than 400 mission-critical items in its own operations into three categories: (1) those that are expected to be tested and made Year 2000 compliant prior to 2000; (2) items that will be removed from service without testing and replaced with Year 2000 compliant items; and (3) items found not to be Year 2000 compliant, will be "worked around," until they can be replaced or made compliant. Because of the scope of Chevron's operations, the company believes it is impractical to eliminate all potential Year 2000 problems before they arise. As a result, Chevron expects that for non-mission-critical items and those mission-critical items that remain "worked around," Year 2000 remedial efforts will continue into the year 2000.
In the normal course of business, the company has developed and maintains extensive contingency plans to respond to equipment failures, emergencies and business interruptions. However, contingency planning for Year 2000 issues is complicated by the possibility of multiple and simultaneous incidents, which could significantly impede efforts to respond to emergencies and resume normal business functions. Such incidents may be outside of the company's control, for example, if mission-critical third parties do not successfully address their own material Year 2000 problems.
The company is enhancing existing plans, where necessary, and in some cases developing new plans specifically designed to mitigate the impact on its operations of potential failures from the Year 2000 issue. The company expects to complete and test, where appropriate, its contingency plans by the end of the third quarter 1999. These plans will be designed to continue safe operations, protect the environment, protect the company's assets and enable the resumption of any interrupted operations in a timely and efficient manner. The company's contingency plans will focus on: third-party relationships as necessary; internal mission critical items that are not remediated or
otherwise addressed as expected by the end of the third quarter 1999, if any; and other internal mission-critical items that have been remediated but could not be fully tested prior to 2000.
The company utilizes both internal and external resources in its Year 2000 efforts. The cumulative total cost to achieve Year 2000 compliance is currently estimated at approximately $200 million, mostly for expense-type items, not all of which is incremental to the company's operations. This is about $25 million lower than earlier estimates. Approximately $130 million had been spent through June 30, 1999. Most of the future expenditures will be incurred during the remainder of 1999. The foregoing amounts include the company's share of expenditures by its major affiliates.
As part of the Securities and Exchange Commission's reporting requirements on the Year 2000 problem, companies must include a description of their "most reasonably likely worst-case scenarios" from potential Year 2000 issues. For Chevron, its business diversity is expected to reduce the risk of widespread disruptions to its worldwide operations from Year 2000-related incidents. The company does not expect unusual risks to public safety or to the environment to arise from potential Year 2000-related failures. While the company believes that the impact of any individual Year 2000 failure most likely will be localized and limited to specific facilities or operations, it is not yet able to fully assess the likelihood of significant business interruptions occurring in one or more of its operations around the world. Such interruptions could delay manufacturing and delivery of refined products and chemicals products by the company to customers. The company could also face interruptions in its ability to produce crude oil and natural gas. While not expected, failures to address multiple critical Year 2000 issues, including failures to implement contingency plans in a timely manner, could materially and adversely affect the company's results of operations or liquidity in any one period. The company is currently unable to predict the aggregate financial or other consequences of such potential interruptions.
The foregoing disclosure is based on Chevron's current expectations, estimates and projections, which could ultimately prove to be inaccurate. Because of uncertainties, the actual effects of the Year 2000 issues on Chevron may be different from the company's current assessment. Factors, many of which are outside the control of the company, that could affect Chevron's ability to be Year 2000 compliant by the end of 1999, include: the failure of customers, suppliers, governmental entities and others to achieve compliance, and the inability or failure to identify all critical Year 2000 issues, or to develop appropriate contingency plans for all Year 2000 issues that ultimately may arise. The foregoing disclosure is made pursuant to the Federal Year 2000 Information and Readiness Disclosure Act.
YEAR 2000
Many computer software systems, as well as certain hardware and equipment utilizing date-sensitive data, were structured to use a two- digit date field meaning that they will not be able to properly recognize dates in the Year 2000. Tenneco's significant technology transformation projects are addressing the Year 2000 issue in those areas where replacement systems are being installed for other business reasons. Where existing systems and equipment are expected to remain in place beyond 1999, Tenneco has a detailed process in place to identify and assess Year 2000 issues and to remediate, replace or establish alternative procedures addressing non-Year 2000 compliant systems, hardware, and equipment.
Tenneco has substantially completed inventorying its systems and equipment including computer systems and business applications as well as date-sensitive technology embedded in its equipment and facilities. Tenneco continues to plan for and undertake remediation, replacement, or alternative procedures for non- compliant Year 2000 systems and equipment; and test remediated, replaced, or alternative procedures for systems and equipment. Tenneco has confirmed that none of its products are date-sensitive. Remediation, replacement, or alternative procedures for systems and equipment are being undertaken on a business priority basis. This is ongoing and has been completed at some plants. The process will continue and, depending upon the business unit, is targeted to be completed, in most cases, sometime during the fourth quarter of 1998 and the first through the third quarters of 1999 with testing to occur in the same time frame. Also, Tenneco is contacting its major customers, suppliers, financial institutions, and others with whom it conducts business to determine whether they will be able to resolve in a timely manner Year 2000 problems affecting Tenneco. As part of its planning and readiness activities, Tenneco is beginning to address and develop Year 2000 contingency plans for critical business processes.
Based upon current estimates, Tenneco believes it will incur costs which may range from approximately $50 to $60 million during 1998 and 1999 to address Year 2000 issues and implement the necessary changes to its existing systems and equipment. As of September 30, 1998, approximately $7 million of the costs have already been incurred. These costs are being expensed as they are incurred, except that in certain instances Tenneco may determine that replacing existing computer systems or equipment may be more effective and efficient, particularly where additional functionality is available. These replacements would be capitalized and would reduce the estimated 1998 and 1999 expense associated with Year 2000 issues.
In the event Tenneco is unable to complete the remediation, replacement, or alternative procedures for critical systems and equipment in a timely manner or if those with whom Tenneco conducts business are unsuccessful in implementing timely solutions, Year 2000 issues could have a material adverse effect on Tenneco's results of operations. At this time, the potential effect in the event Tenneco and/or third parties are unable to timely resolve Year 2000 problems is not determinable; however, Tenneco believes it will be able to resolve its own Year 2000 issues.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------
-- Jim Smith (cyberax@ix.netcom.com), October 31, 1999.
DoD is basing contingency plans on the 30% figure. They're classified.
-- a (a@a.a), October 31, 1999.
I'm not an upstreamer, but I've been around the oil industry a while. I can tell you that had CHV or TEN stated in a ten Q that they would be reduced to 1/3 capacity by next year, their stock would be sitting at around 5 this year.I would like DD1st Light to come forward and answer some posted questions to verify that she has any experience in the industry at all. At a bare minimum you are playing fast and loose with the truth and that dog don't hunt.
Don't fuck with people by telling them half truths leave that for J. Koskinen. We have enough problems without having to sort out exaggerations from reality. I'm not saying your post is complete shit, I'm just pointing out that the comments about CHV and TEN were false and misleading. I DO happen to think that there will be signifigant disruptions, but you can't put numbers on it using old 10Q's that don't match your statements.
Come on down and answer some real questions. If your depth is as strong as you say it is, then I'd love to chat with you in private. Hope I haven't offended, simply a friendly fact check.
-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
Hi Rich,Thanks for posting the Lumen Foods chat. That's a lot of work. :)
Gordon -- why not join the chat Tuesday night (9 PM, CST) on IRC chat (dalnet, #LumenFoods). DD1 might drop by again.
-- Dean -- from (almost) Duh Moines (dtmiller@midiowa.net), October 31, 1999.
Gordon, I am glad you saw this post. If it is less than true, someone went to a lot of trouble. Please let the group know what you find out. Thanks
-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
Flint asked the pertinent question re anything from DD1 that is easily verifiable: the Chevron 10Q statement. The 10Q quoted above is from this year, whereas she was quoted as saying it was in their 3'rd quarter statement from last year. If that statement had been in there, surely someone in this forum would have found it a long time ago, and even Wall Street would have heard about it.I believe one of Ed Yardeni's interviewees on the 100 day (maybe the 200 day) program commented that the embedded chips down in the ocean problem had not turned out to be significant. Sure would like to hear from more oil people.
-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), October 31, 1999.
I want to be clear. The ten Q statements above posted by smith appear to be the Nov 98 (ie q3) statements, i checked em myself.Also, I have heard that the embedded chip prob. turned out to be "not as bad as expected" but then that statement was from people who were relieved that they were only finding 3-5% problematic chips. That in itself is misleading. Additionally, I remain concerned about mom and pop oil. Many SME's own lot's of production. For example the California domestic market although dominated now by the likes of Aera etc. still has quite a bit of crude which is managed by small producers. These folks are as unsophisticated as it gets in some cases. Many have only recently found the fax machine useful. These folks will not be ready and have not checked thier ops for chips, I can guarantee that a bunch of them will have some probs.
These domestics are all over the US. Anyway, I was simply stating that the 10Q statements don't back up what dd1 was saying.
Here's the quote: "Tenneco and Chevron actually came clean on their last year's Q10 third quarter reports and stated they expect to have about 30% production available after Y2K "
I read these damn SEC docs for a living and believe me, if I had read that, I would have been all over it like a fly on shit. Not to mention Wall Street. The stock would have been slaughtered. This statement is a lie. I'm not into people making shit up, on either side of the issue. You either know it or you don't. Period. This crap is just as bad as Kosky's lines.
-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
Gordon, I remember Chevron saying something about the 30% figure when they first "went Chevron". Maybe not in the SEC report, but elsewhere. This was during the same time period that bad news from Venezula was emerging and DoD was toying with the 30% figure. DD may be mistaken somewhat, but I think her assesment is about as bad as yours. Geez man, you guys competing for gloomiest oil doomer or what? :)
-- a (a@a.a), October 31, 1999.
Bill Byars:It was Dave Hall that made that statement during Yardeni's broadcast. I believe he has come credibility.
-- BusterCollins (BustrCollins@aol.com), October 31, 1999.
I have about the best BS detector you can inherit, and believe me, this character is flawless. If she's BS'ing, she is better than Clinton. That doesn't mean she *has* to be correct in every statement. I figure that my age and wisdom have gotten me to where I'm correct 75% of the time, and consider that pretty unusual.
-- stantheman (heidrich@presys.com), November 01, 1999.
The link given ( http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001eAu ) points to a question about bank runs. Nothing there about oil or gas.
-- a programmer (a@programmer.com), November 01, 1999.
Here's why my 'spidey sense' is tingling: "DD1light" claims to have "more degrees than Carter has pills," yet also claims to not know her age. Pray tell, what birthdate did she inscribe on all those college application forms when obtaining all those degrees? What social security number? She claims to be able to solve both financing and bottleneck problems: unlikely in the extreme. She is an Elder of her people: maybe, but Elder usually means Art Bell BS. ("It is the way of our People") Bad memories of sitting in a dorm room till dawn, brewing garbage soup.
-- Spidey (in@jam.scifi), November 01, 1999.
Here's the source for that '30 per cent of U.S. refinery capability after Y2K' quote, which is currently being disputed:"I understand that the commercial fuel industry is facing a Y2K challenge in their refinery operations. Some reports state that only 30% of their refineries will be renovated by January 1, 2000." - from a question and answer exchange between, among others, Senator Strom Thurmond and a Dr. Harris, of the Pentagon, at a meeting of the U.S. Congressional Supplier Capability Working group. [minutes now taken off-line. Quoted by the 'New World Order Intelligence Update' - which I edit - directly from my own reading of those minutes; and first published in our 'Y2K Weekly Alert', December 14th, 1998]
You can see this, together with a mass of other quotes [including the elusive Chevron SEC statements], at
http://www.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/Y2KQUOTE.HTM
-- John K. Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 01, 1999.
Here's the complete quote from those minutes:COMMENT: I understand that the commercial fuel industry is facing a Y2K challenge in their refinery operations. Some reports state that only 30% of their refineries will be renovated by January 1 ,2000. QUESTION: Has the Department [of Defence] looked at the potential impact upon its operations if 70% of the U.S. refinery operations are shut down? QUESTION: How long will the Department's supply of fuel last if deliveries are suspended? COMMENT: Over the past several years the DoD has expanded its reliance upon "direct vendor delivery" and "just in time Logistics." This has allowed the Department to save money by reducing the inventory levels that must be stored and maintained. However, this has made the Department more susceptible to disruptions in commercial deliveries. QUESTION: Has the DoD fully explored the impact on our military capability if the private sector contractors are not able to supply the Department because of a Y2K-related failure in their production and transportation systems...?
[Please don't send me queries bt e-mail - I'm swamped and running to a deadline!]
-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 01, 1999.
Rich,Thanks for the post and all the work that went into it.If it's not too much to ask,would you post the next one.Thanks.
-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 01, 1999.
Let me state categorically that there are NO embedded systems in wells or oilfield equipment that we are unable to retrieve and replace. NONE. We can get to anything. It's just a matter of cost and how to do it.I have no idea what percentage of embedded systems will fail. It was never possible to test them all. We have tried to locate and test a sample of every type that we have, or we've relied on tests by others who have tested the same model of equipment.
We have to rely on other companies' assurances.
We have to assume that every model is identical regardless of the date of manufacture.
We hope we've located every system.
Those are big assumptions, but we have no other choice. We're running out of time and it's the best we can do.
Will there be failures in the oil and gas industry? Absolutely. Will they be catastrophic and widespread? We don't know. We hope not. That's all I can tell you.
-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 01, 1999.
Who are the people involved in the chat and what are their credentials?
-- Rick Solinsky (rick@audioonhold.com), November 01, 1999.
Good God, you can't just throw this out unsupported. If this is verifiable please clue me in.
-- A Concerned Realist (CWHale67@aol.com), November 01, 1999.
Dog Gone said: "I have no idea what percentage of embedded systems will fail. It was never possible to test them all. We have tried to locate and test a sample of every type that we have, or we've relied on tests by others who have tested the same model of equipment."Comment: Unfortunately, experience in the ag sector has shown that these assumptions may be wrong. In the testimony of Ken Evans, President of the Arizona Farm Bureau, he spoke about his experience with embeded systems in boxes on his pivot irrigation lines. All were sequentially numbered - same make, model, year, manufacturer, yet 2 out of 6, I believe, failed.
-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), November 01, 1999.
Wierdness at the SEC. There is no 3rd quarter 10 - Q for CheveronUS Securities and Exchange Commission
A list of Cheveron 10 - Q filings
This is a thread with ENRONS 10 - Q
ENRON --- This one will make your hair stand on end !
EXXON CORP (10 - Q)
Notwithstanding the substantive work efforts
described above, the corporation could potentially
experience disruptions to some mission critical
operations or deliveries to customers as a result of Year
2000 issues, particularly in the first few weeks of the
year 2000. Such disruptions could include impacts
from potentially non-compliant systems utilized by
suppliers, customers, government entities or others.
TEXACO INC - Quarterly Report (SEC form 10-Q)
We reported that
approximately 95% of the computers and computer
software involved in corporate financial applications,
and about 5% of our industrial automation systems
used in refineries, lubricant and gas plants and oil well
operations needed modification or upgrade.
If you just read one of the filings it doesn't look so bad but pile them up and a picture develops.
That was a really wierd read. Thanks for the post.