Bank panic fails to materialize - Milne prediction from June dead wrong : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Milne made this prediction back about June 14, and it was crossposted here. I have included the link. Needless to say, it did not come true. I was going to comment on the 12th, but decided to wait and make sure nothing even faintly resembling a bank run had occurred anywhere. It hasn't.

Once again, a DOOM prediction falls flat on its face.

BTW - you may have noticed that your DOOM gurus are not mentioning real DATES anymore. Things are getting pretty vague out there - problems will show up 'sometime'. At least Milne has the courage to name a date. I'll give him an 'A' for guts, and an 'F' as a prophet.

------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- Subject: More Reasons Why mcbankshill Is An Idiot Date: 1999/06/14 Author: fedinfo Posting History

The bank shill has proposed that if cash is not available, then that is NO problem. We can just use credit cards and checks.... Topic: Business/Economy Y2K Early - Chaos Possible In 90 Days Panic surrounding the Y2K problem could make the situation worse by far than the actual malady. This is written by one of the more conservative people on the y2k Homestead list. He builds computers for large business and gets them all set up and rolling. If you think Y2K effects are going to be nil - think again, the fireworks could easily begin shortly - keep your powder dry... Think you have 6 months to prepare for the upcoming big Year 2000 rollover? Think again. Its more like ninety days. The word on the street is that no one will show up at the last quarterly debt auction of 99 or the first one of 2000. The big investors (buyers of short-term debt) say they are going to stay out of the auctions and see how the Y2K rollover affects things. (Remember these are very fiscally conservative people) Short-term debt is auctioned off every three months by the likes of the credit card companies and other financial institutions. This is what keeps them running. Ever wonder why the interest rates on plastic are so darned high? Its because the credit card folks rent their short-term debt to big investors. These investors are promised a big return on their three- month investment. This is where the credit card folks get the money to pay the merchants who accept the card in payment for goods and services. Credit cards are a *very* big part of our modern economy, if no one buys their debt they just cant operate. Merchants wont get paid so most will likely stop accepting plastic, almost over night. This alone will put many companies out of business. Car rental agencies accept *only* plastic. You cant rent a car today even with a wheelbarrow full of cash. How many ISPs like AOL are almost exclusively paid by automatic charges to their customers plastic? [Meaning that within the last quarter of this year, many Internet users could possibly find it very difficult to locate an ISP still in business - except for the phone companies that have been angling to control the business.] Think there wont be bank runs by October? When we cant use our plastic, wont we assume that our checkbook isnt far behind? Cash will be king! (What little there is of it, that is) The lucky ones will get 10% of their cash out before the banks doors are slammed closed in their faces. Once the government imposes cash withdrawal limits, which it will, our confidence in government, banking, insurance, and nearly all other institutions will disappear faster than our cash. By Halloween the cities will be aflame. ============= The bottom line is simply that if cash is not readily available, who would then trust a bank to HONOR a check. No one is going to turn over their merchandise for a check if it CAN NOT be redeemed for cash. Same with crdit cards. No merchant will turn over his products for potentially unredeemable credit cards. mcisaac is an idiot. I doubt that cities will be in 'flames' by Halloween. And I can not say how the panic will be worked out...if it comes sooner rather than later. Looking at the panic...... The spin from the different entities has been effective in mollifying the public concerns so far. How long will that last? I dunno. But, ultimately the spin will not prevail. The longer it goes before the panic begins....the worse it will be. -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.

-- Paul Davis (, September 17, 1999


That's real nice Paul, opinions are like a-holes. Y2k isn't someones opinion, it's a fact. Mine, yours, humpty dumpty or milne doesn't really matter does it? Well at least you're not going out on a limb with any "predictions". Wait, I guess you are, except your's is about the BITR come 1-1-00, I guess I'll wait until then to laugh. Maybe you should do the same.

-- CygnusXI (, September 17, 1999.

I am glad it hasn't happened. I hope to hell it doesn't happen. I am praying it won't happen. But it might.

-- br14 (br14@bout.done), September 17, 1999.

Personally, I think there has been a banking panic for months. It's just not in the form that most people expect when they think "bank panic." It's the bankers who are panicing.

The speed and ferocity of spin and propaganda, Fed, EC and BoE accepting a wider range of securities, unsurety over interest rates, companies liquidating and securing more credit, and of course, everyone's favorite, the Banker's Sermon of 1999. Other signs as well.

There's a bank panic, alright. John and Jane Q. just aren't aware of it yet...

-- (, September 17, 1999.

Paul Davis, yet again, your lack of integrity is manifest. Or did you decide not to post here what Milne was quoted as saying on that thread that you cite from June, first in the clip itself:

"mcisaac is an idiot. I doubt that cities will be in 'flames' by Halloween. And I can not say how the panic will be worked out...if it comes sooner rather than later. Looking at the panic...... The spin from the different entities has been effective in mollifying the public concerns so far. How long will that last? I dunno. But, ultimately the spin will not prevail. The longer it goes before the panic begins....the worse it will be."

Now, why did Milne say that?

Well, go back and read his response to YOUR statement on theat same thread from June that you intended to use this AGAINST Milne:

"To the GIANT ASS Paul Davis: Read the post again, you moron. I did not predict ANYTHING at all. You really are a flaming moron. I posted an article that discussed a "POSSIBLE" panic. Then i followed it up by saying that I DOUBTED cities would be in flames by then. Davis, you are such an ass, grapsing at any and every straw. Better luck next time, moron.

-- Paul Milne (, June 15, 1999."

This is pathetic, Davis. Milne DID NOT make a date prediction there. How about an apology?

-- BigDog (, September 17, 1999.

Once again, Davis has proven himself not only a damnable liar but utterly inable to read a paragraph and comprehend its meaning. He claims that I made a prediction and that it did not come true.

So, I challenge you Davis, you pathetic LIAR, to clip out my 'prediction' and identify it for everyone to examine. Where is it, you damnable liar?

My comments are ONLY those below the double bar. I CLEARLY said that I did not think cities would be burning by October and that I did not know how a panic would work itself out. But that does not satisfy you thirst for lies.

Rarely have I ever seen such a rabid liar as you make such specious allegations. You said thatIi made a prediction about a bank run. Where is it, you lying piece of shit? Post it.

If you had even begun to have read this post you would see that I am CRITICAL of the poster who said that there would be October bank runs and cities in flame. But in your haste to find something to criticize you stuff your feet in your lying mouth.

You owe me an apology you piece of lying detritius.

Paul Milne "If you live within 5 miles of a 7-11, you're toast"

-- Paul Milne (, September 17, 1999.

Are you claiming that it ISN'T 90 days past June 14?

-- Paul Davis (, September 17, 1999.

Don't hold your breath Paul Milne : )

Hey Paul pshannon wrote, there is a banking panic going on right now it's just being played out where the big money players play.

Also, there is a banking panic going on with the ABA...they're in a panic about panic and working hard to "control" the situation. When their manipulation becomes so public and in plain view and they pressure advertisers to pull ads then you KNOW that they see the risk to them is GREAT.

Regardless, believe what you want to believe. I'm sure it makes you feel a lot better because they have contingency plans...



-- Michael Taylor (, September 17, 1999.

This is the SECOND time that you have posted this crap and lied about me. I posted the comments of ANOTHER person and commented upon them. You were called on it months ago and now you post it again. You are a liar. An unrepentant and repugnant liar.

Once again, you filthy vermin, POST the prediction that **I** made.

-- Paul Milne (, September 17, 1999.

Davis --- Are YOU claiming you didn't purposely misread and misrepresent Milne on BOTH threads?

-- BigDog (, September 17, 1999.

When Bankers write sermons for ministers ya know something's fishy.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, September 17, 1999.

SORRY FOR THE IGNORANCE, BUT, when was/is the quarterly auction mentioned in the posted article???? I was under the impression it wa to be either LATE this month or EARLY next month. Either way, we're too early ANYWAY. THE WHOLE POST IS SPECIOUS!! PAUL, CALM DOWN!!! NEXT month, we'll deal with this foolishness!!

Night Train

-- jes an ol footballer lookin for the daylight (nighttr@in.lane), September 17, 1999.

Hey Paul (Milne):

You've really got to learn to let it out. You know. Express how you really feel.

-- Dave (, September 17, 1999.

The thread from June where Paul Davis believes Paul Milne made a prediction (Paul Milne did not make a prediction) is here:

The prediction had been made by someone on another forum. The link to the other forum can be found on the June thread. And, Paul Milne already pointed out to Paul Davis on the June thread that the prediction had come from another forum.

Also, the failed "prediction" Paul Davis is gloating over wasn't about a bank run but instead about liquidity.

-- Linkmeister (, September 17, 1999.

Obviously PD's been torchin' weed again. Avoid inhaling Davis, it makes you paranoid.

BTW, as long as we're on the subject......The local three story bank in Derby, Kansas has a one story banner attached to the outside. It is a gigantic yellow 'yield-looking' sign, with bold black letters printed on it that say, "RELAX".

I suppose they'll begin piping violin music out of one story, outdoor concert speakers, at high volume, any day now! BWAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA

-- Will continue (, September 17, 1999.

OUCH. Ok, I have to admit I screwed this one up. I dug the original post up using deja, and it does have the bit on the end Milne says it does.

My apologies, Milne.

I never claimed to be perfect. But my average is still a lot higher that Milnes.

-- Paul Davis (, September 17, 1999.

I wonder why the post doesn't appear on the forum now operated by Davis--the Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot forum? Looks like it would be prime material to crow over on that board. Of course, if Davis is just trying to save newbies from the dreaded "doomer meme," then I don't suppose he WOULD bother wasting the bandwidth.

-- Old Git (, September 17, 1999.

Paul Milne is the voice of reason.

-- bardou (, September 17, 1999.

Well, at least Pauly-anna Davis apologized, weak though it is. But I personally have been observing this farce, and at least TWICE have posted after Davis made some reference to how he was going to publicized Milne's failed "prediction" when the date came up -- I CLEARLY, ALONG WITH OTHER PEOPLE LIKE "a", TOLD PAUL DAVIS THAT HE HAD MISINTERPRETED WHAT MILNE POSTED. THERE WAS NO REASON IN THE WORLD THAT PAUL DAVIS COULD NOT HAVE AVERTED THIS "MISTAKE", WEEKS BEFORE TODAY!!!!!

(Of course, I suspect that the same thing will hold true next year. "Gosh, Paul, don't you remember that we tried to warn you about Y2K, and you would not listen?....)


-- King of Spain (, September 17, 1999.

Actually, Your Highness, it was "people like 'a'", or more specifically, 'a' himself, that started the misinterpretation to begin with.

Paul Davis may have been guilty of not reading the entire post.

But 'a' is the one who misattributed the prediction "Chaos in 90 Days" to Milne.

-- Hoffmeister (, September 17, 1999.

For once, Hoffy, you and I are in agreement -- the title of the original thread as posted by "a" did make it appear like Paul Milne was making the prediction. But:

1) Anybody who actually read the post could see it was NOT Milne's prediction.

2) After Paul Davis' first post that stated that he was going to mark the date so he could publicize Milne's upcoming failed prediction, he was immediately swamped with posts -- including Milne's, including mine -- alerting him to the fact that Milne had NOT made such a prediction.

3) Only a couple of weeks ago, Paul Davis pops up with a post that says that he will be publicizing Milne's failed "prediction" when the date comes due. I PERSONALLY POSTED TO THE EFFECT THAT HE WAS WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, AND THAT MILNE HAD NEVER, NEVER, NEVER MADE SUCH A PREDICTION.

I think Paul Davis must be consuming the stuff that he is raising to finance his anti-preparation propaganda machine.

-- King of Spain (, September 17, 1999.

a likes to pull s--t like that. he does it all the time.

Hamasaki: Panic probably begins in Sept - will be 10 times worse because of pollyannas

clueless butthead.

-- ;ldsfg945;mtlzsg (;sdnfg@mspodfg.;lksjdg), September 17, 1999.

A run on cash could happen at any time. If not sooner, then sometime in January as ATMs, interbank transfers, etc., hose up accounts. Of course, if your account is hosed, it will be a little late to actually get cash, won't it? But that won't keep people from lining up at banks and yelling and screaming (at minimum).

Cash -- withdraw early and withdraw often
Tyr not to buy too many supplies by check or credit card -- easily traced. Use cash to buy supplies locally. Use cash to buy money orders if you have to order stuff. The cash you don't use to get supplies, bundle up as follows:
$100 bundle -- 2-$10, 8-$5, 40-$1. Seal the bundle in a vacuum sealer. Put bundle(s) in PVC tube(s) w/end caps. Get shovel ...

-- A (, September 17, 1999.

Wear gloves and shin protection.

ROTFLMAO......good one 'A'!

-- Will continue (, September 17, 1999.

Paul Milne is going to be the laughing stock of the USA in a few months. Don't even bother to argue with the asshole. bwaaaahahahaahahaha

-- (, September 17, 1999.

Speaking of liquidity...did anyone notice these remarks today by Alan Greenspan? Read the following and then reread the FreeRepublic post from June:


While the evidence of precautionary inventory hedging to date is mixed, in the financial sphere, borrowers and lenders are clearly taking steps to build liquid assets and reduce their reliance on credit markets around the end of the year. This is reflected in a noticeable rise in deposit and commercial paper rates for funding that would be outstanding over year's end. Many corporate treasurers have moved forward their debt offerings to avoid any chance of a dearth of credit availability in the fourth quarter or difficulties funding short-term liabilities. The Century Date Change Special Liquidity Facility of the discount window that was approved by the Federal Reserve Board in July and the contingency actions of the Federal Open Market Committee announced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 8 should help to ensure an ample supply of liquidity and relieve funding pressures.


-- Linkmeister (, September 17, 1999.



-- Will continue (, September 18, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ