Subject:	The Plan (P=NP), was: Ominous Government Statements? (was: Re: Gov't Tries to Balance
Date:	1999/06/09
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

Come-come, we all know the plan.  Doomies, Pollys, Trolls, and the occasional butt-head, everyone except a nubie knows the plan.   On Wed, 9 Jun 1999 00:55:39, eskwired@SPAMBLOCK.shore.net wrote: > Bob Brock <bbrock@i-america.net> wrote: > > | WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sen. Robert Bennett, the Senate's leading expert on the > | year 2000 computer problem, wants Americans to know that Y2K is an > | ``unpredictable event that may have life-altering consequences.'' > > Is it just me, or does it seem that government officials are issuing > stronger and more ominous statements abour y2k? > > "life-altering consequences"?!  > > WTF!  Has anyone ever heard anything this strong from a government > official before?   The plan is to deny, deny, deny.  Deny until they are absolutely certain that the remediation has failed.  What else can they do?   Lookit, some here think I'm a doomie because I run InfoMagic's pieces, strongly back paul milne's analysis, help out a long time pal called, "The Baron", have 50 lbs of rice in my car because I haven't figured out where I'm going to put *it*.   I'm not.  I'm a big iron programmer who has seen a date problem take down mainframes.  I also have a pal, not the Baron, who was a programmer at Maxwell Online when their 1 digit years hit the 1989 to 1990 roll over.   In addition to 30 years of cranking code (unfortunately not COBOL), I have enough academics to know what is provable and knowable and what isn't.   At this point, it's still an unknown.  Like I saw on "The Simpsons" tonight, does "P = NP"?  If you didn't go a-goggle when Homer walked past the 3-D rendered "P = NP", you don't know why, while I say, I'm not sure what Y2K will bring, I'm overjoyed that 50 lbs of rice were only $17.00 and tuna was 69 cents a couple week ago.   Does "P = NP"?   I don't know but we have 206 days, maybe less.   If Bennet had put it firmer a year or two ago, this wouldn't be the mess that it will be, if "P = NP".   As it is, as sure as '1'B, they've held the pressure back so long that as soon as the panic starts, it will be 10 times worse.  The reason is computable.  It takes a month or two to get preps in reasonable shape. If everyone had started two years ago, the effort would have been nominal with no fights over the sacks of beans.  The prep-time would have been spread over two years.   No sale today?  I'll stop by tomorrow or next week,  I've got lots of time.   But now, but now, with 6 months to go, 6? More like 3 months until the panic starts, two years are crammed into 3 months.  Now, instead of a subtle, gradual process, it's Katy-bar-the-door (whatever that means.)   Around these parts, you don't want to be shopping in the week before Christmas.  You don't want to hit the grocery store the day (or two actually) before Thanksgiving or "Weather-Eye predicts a MAJOR winter storm."  And they're prepping for a few days to a week!  What will it be like when the herd tries for a couple months?   But now, they have set it up so that there is no alternative. Everything must work 100% and we all have to believe that, know it as certainly as I know that "P = NP" (which I don't).   Since I don't, it now is a certainty that they have made it ten times worse.   It's now a binary choice.  Either there will be a horrible panic prior to the singularity, or there will be something worse afterward.  And we don't get to choose.  The dice are rolling, our bets are on the table. It's about to come, come, come baby  ....   There are no other choices.  I expect a pre-Y2K panic;  it takes a full day for a city to prep for three days to a week.  We know this from Thanksgiving and winter storms.    When a city decides to go for a month, it will take a week or longer. This process will be captured on CNN and will trigger the 3 months, 6 months, or full year prepping.  A year takes a couple months.  There is not enough time left for a good outcome.   If there isn't a pre-Y2K panic, a large portion of the population will be caught unprepared for whatever happens (the boogyman, shipping delays, general confusion, the Devil takes Hillary as his bride, no wait, that's a movie.)   This will be worse than the pre-Y2K panic. In this scenario, people die.   That's the binary choice that they have boxed us into.   cory hamasaki 206 Days, 4,945 Hours, http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html   I took a disk hit and am rebuilding my main system.  Please be patient. I may lose some email. 

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999

Answers

I KNEW IT!

He was Y2k testing and it crashed his machine! Don't listen to him that it was a disk failure. It will take him MONTHS to fix the problem!

He could be right, I'll admit it, but I think statisically I have about the same chance as sprouting a duck on my butt.

If there are riots and such, the evil government will squash any resistance with their anthrax armed black helicopters anyway. So what are you worried about?

How on Earth can anybody be certain what will happen in the Y2k sillyness? All we know is that something could happen. Nobody knows for sure. Nobody.

The company I work for is as y2k ready as any company can be. But if we realesed public information on our readiness, do I think you all would believe us? Nope. Too bad.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 09, 1999.

a -- could you or someone supply the source for the Bennett statement (pub and date)? Thanx ahead.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 09, 1999.

WOW Cory, don't kill yourself with all that research you have been putting in on y2k. If I didn't know better it would look as if you are just guessing.

Of course if that comes out of the mouth of Cory, you can damn sure take it to the bank. Woops, I mean pull it out of the bank.

Pat

"Still waiting for that first bank run to hit. North predicted that it would have already happened."

-- Pat (BAMECW@aol.com), June 09, 1999.

Washington D.C. has admitted defeat of the D.C. area Govt. Welfare checks will be hard to get out to recipients. The U.S. Postal service may also challenge your opinions after the roll over. There may be more wars for those black helicopters than pervasive, widespread panic to deal with. Arrogance of people like you who shoot their mouths off will fall much harder than those humble folk. Yes, your blind risks may pan out for you. How much insight do you really have? I can say what I want as a G.I. and if i'm wrong, I do not have any price what so ever to pay for my mistake. The Pollys will have to be right to not fall. The price will be paid for an unprepared polly.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 09, 1999.

Read it in the opening paragraph at this spot

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 09, 1999.

yup- interesting. I think more and more are getting it to some degree. stopped by Wal-Mart today for a couple of things- they were TOTALLY out of canning jar rings with lids- the combo packages for regular mouth jars- whole shelf bare. Almost out of jars too- and this is in Vermont where we don't even have peas yet, let alone ANYTHING to can.......

local radio station is advertising a new game- "The End is Near"- dedicated to Y2K. The grand prize this month is a complete 10 tree apple orchard- so if the supply lines go down, you'll eventually be able to harvest your own apples- they say......(not in jest it seems)

-- anita (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), June 09, 1999.

If the government plan is to deny, deny, deny, why have they owned up to the problems in D.C.?

By the way, don't confuse the city government of D.C. (which is having trouble) with the federal government. A quick civics class will let you know they are separate.

Also, whether anyone is a G.I. or not, we ALL can say what we want.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 09, 1999.

Pat----What kind of reseach or facts do you want. How about this piece of reseach that came up with this fact "Sen. Robert Bennett states that Y2K could be *unpredictable event that may have life-altering consequences*". It is mainstream knowledge that this will cause either a recession or a depression world wide. What will you do if you lose you job. Bussinesses can't go on if people don't have the money to buy their product or you can't do bussiness with someone that has no money.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 09, 1999.

people can accept the truth, or continue to play, "hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil". (some just can't seem to deal with the "speak no evil" portion)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

JAW

What makes you think the Federal government can operate effectively if the city it is in is in chaos? Do you really think the agencies or even Congress will be open without power or toilets?

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 09, 1999.

Anita, the same thing is happening in the local Wal Mart here as well as other stores. I started looking for lids in Dec. because GN said they would be scarce. They are in my area.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), June 09, 1999.

"Like I saw on "The Simpsons" tonight, does "P = NP"? "

" Either there will be a horrible panic prior to the singularity, or there will be something worse afterward. "

"I took a disk hit and am rebuilding my main system. Please be patient. I may lose some email."

Cory is good at sarcasm, satire, and hyperbole. Unfortunately, none of it makes sense in the real world.

A disk hit and I'm rebuilding my main system? Hahaha. Very Star Trekish isn't it?

The "singularity?" Star Trek again. It's not a crisis, it's a singularity. That's worse than a crisis. It's a one-time thing, you wouldn't understand.

The Simpsons? Now we're popularizing Y2K. The Simpsons talk about every major issue, don't they?

This has got to be the best yet out of ol' Cory.

ROFLMAO!!!

You'd better read that disclaimer he puts on his WRPs.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

Look, it all boils down to human nature...

You can tell a person that there are a billion stars in the galaxy and they'll believe you.

But if a sign on a park bench says "Wet Paint", they'll all have to try it themselves.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 09, 1999.

For almost two years, I have sounded the same refrain. Prepare. The operative syllable, "pre" . you must 'pare' BEFOREHAND.

Some people must be so stupid that they do not understand even the MEANING of the word. It does not mean by a lifejacket just as you are looking up into that wall of water looming over your head. It means that you must, to some degree anticipate, That is what PREparation is all about.

The most important issue that Cory hits is this. Because the apprpriate parties have not chided people to prepare, the resultant effects OF that unpreparedness will be far far worse. Had people been warned by government or other responsible folks to make SERIOUS preparations, that most certainly would have causes some degree of problems in and of itself. However, not NEARLy the degree of problems caused by taking the opposite tack. The no need to do more than three days bullshit.

Now, because of their incredibly miscalculation, MORE people will die. Nor only becuase they did nOT prepapare, but because they had the opportunity to prepare and were PERSUADED not to.

This is where people of flint's ilk arise. He says he just doesn't know what will happen. The shut the **** up and go away. Evewn by constantly regurgitating the 'No one knows' line, THAT is cemented inpeople's heads. ESPECIALLY people who are looking for an excuse NOT to prepare. flint is making preparations. He would not ACTIVELY say ' "do not prepare', However, the entire tenor of all of his posts leads any one who is lokking for an excuse NOT to prepare, to NOT prepare. He feeds them whether he knows it or admits it.

This does not make flint absolutely responsible for their deaths. But I would not want that on my conscience, knowing that all my "You can't really tell what's going to happen" blather was a major contibuting factor in the death of another.

But, flint does not care. He ACTUALLY believes that he is in some way making a contribution. To what? To inaction? To agnosticism? No one can read any of flint's posts and then say, "Honey. you know we really should take this seriously and prepare."

there is NO one who develops a sense of urgency regarding PREparations from flint.

He is not a moderate. He is PALPABLY immoderate.

Flint does not say "I have Prepared. Go thou and do like wise."

He has mastered ambiguity, perfected equivocation, elevated 'I-don't- know-it-ism' to an art form.

The fact of the matter is that if you look around you , you will readily see that next to NO ONE is doing anything substantial in oreder to prepare. This is an absolute GUARANTEE of widspred chaos, mayhem and panic, if flint is mistaken.

On the otherhand an open and honest advocacy of serious preparation harms NO ON at all. It might cost them a lot of money, staus, job setbacks. But all those things are incredibly trivial compared to the losses if flint is wrong.

And most assuredly, the overwhelming facts and evidence demonstrate that he is.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), June 09, 1999.

I still haven't had an answer to my first question: If the government plan is to deny, deny, deny, why have they owned up to the problems in D.C.?

Think I can: Read the story, and don't take Bennett's words out of context. "Pat----What kind of reseach or facts do you want. How about this piece of reseach that came up with this fact "Sen. Robert Bennett states that Y2K could be *unpredictable event that may have life-altering consequences*". Notice the word *could*, please.

"It is mainstream knowledge that this will cause either a recession or a depression world wide." No, it isn't mainstream knowledge, and I agree with many of you D&G'ers with that. Except D&G'ers use a phrase like that when it is convenient, then say the masses are uninformned when it suits a D&G'ers purpose. So which one is it, D&G'ers?

Dog: "What makes you think the Federal government can operate effectively if the city it is in is in chaos? Do you really think the agencies or even Congress will be open without power or toilets? "

Chemical toilets and generators. I dunno, maybe they'll be a little cold.

And, yes, I do. We built a society up with out electricity, and we can survive without it. Ever see the Saturday Night Live skit where the talk show hosts loose their teleprompters, then they turn into cannibals like Lord of the Flies (well, maybe not cannibals, but you get my point).

The argument that humans without electricity will revert thousands of years of evolution back into neanderthals is ludicrous. Sorry, I don't buy it.

By the way, when we had the governmental shut down a couple of years ago (when Newt and Clinton locked horns over the budget) how was your life affected? I still have a job. The same one I had before. Figure that.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 09, 1999.

Pat, JAW, Buddy: Think you know more than Cory, eh?

How many Y2K business meetings have you attended? Government Y2K meetings? Community Y2K meetings? Thought so. Have you ever met and discussed y2k with Senator Bennett or Ed Yardeni or Ed Yourdon? Thought so. Do you publish a newsletter on the subject of Y2K and provide it free of charge on the Internet as a public service? Thought so. Do you have 30 years of industrial strength computer software experience? Were you ever responsible for discovering major date problems in IBM mainframe operation systems? Thought so. Got any advanced degrees in CS? Taught any classes on software methodologies? Thought so. Are you quoted by name around the world? Are you one of Russ Kelly's y2k experts? Thought so.

Now if you don't have anything intelligent to say regarding the FACTS of y2k that have been CLEARLY presented on this forum, please shut the fuck up or head over to the Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot forum.

Oh and Buddy -- last time I checked, y2k is a one time thing.

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.

JAW----Do you want to chance a depression, the possibility that you "could" loss your job, and if you are unprepared and jobbles just how are you going to feed yourself or you family. Do you really want to take that chance. If so I feel sorry for those how rely on you. Do a little research on the last great depression, with people making 10 to 25 cents a day. Or maybe that just didn't happen. You threaten you family and all those who read and believe your "pollyana" posts.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 09, 1999.

a

A lot of "thought so" there. I'm sure you know what happens when we assume.

I will tell you this. I know a hell of a lot more than Cory does about Washington, DC.

And I think 22 years of experience with computers and digital technology qualifies me to have an opinion.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

Cory and Paul are both right, and the reasons should be obvious to everyone who pays attention.

By this late date we should have at least a large minority of entities who are compliant. Instead, all we have is promises that we're "on track" combined with new revelations of "crap, we need billions of dollars to fix this."

Instead we have this 72 snowstorm lie, and 98% of the people doing nothing. On top of that, we have a bunch of pollys who somehow amuse themselves by trying to talk concerned people out of making prudent preparations, even on a forum dedicated to this. Slime! The question isn't if there will be a panic. It's when. The sooner the better. The later the deadlier.

I haven't decided who to be angrier at:

Programmers who created this mess

Those that didn't listen to the programmers who warned us

The government for continually lying to us about the situation

The pollys who are trying to talk women and children out of the lifeboats.

You all are to blame, and my family is going to pay for this.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 09, 1999.

One more thing. I don't place much faith in the opinions of Russ Kelly's "experts." The majority of them couldn't set the date on their coffee machine.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

Buddy just because you've lived in Arlington all your life and have a Pentium and a car phone doesn't put you in Cory's league. Care to elaborate on your far reaching involvement with y2k other than your cynically snide comments on GNIABFI?

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.

I once had a boss named Buddy. He was a pompous jerk. Is that you, ol' boss?

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 09, 1999.

Cynically snide? You believe Cory word-for-word and you call me cynically snide? Cory must be the most sarcastic pundit of Y2K around. I've met Cory's type. Spends all day at his computer. Thinks he's on the bleeding edge when he's really 2-10 years behind (depending on which machine he's dealing with today). There's nothing wrong with that, it's a living. But he doesn't seem to have a grip on the real world, outside of 7-11 donuts and rides in the country going to the Dragon Ranch.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

Buddy---- Could it be possible that you post sometime just after your wife has given you Viagra and there just is not "any" blood in the top part of your brain.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 09, 1999.

By the way, I've never lived in Arlington, although I have relatives who have. Born and raised in DC. Which makes me an outsider living inside the beltway.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

thinkIcan,

I'd estimate the odds as about the same as TEOTWAWKI in January.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

So buddy, if expert programmers like Cory are so clueless and unimportant in the big picture, who exactly are the key players in this game? Lawyers? Politicians? Stock brokers? Real Estate agents?

You've got a big brain, help me out here. I'm having trouble understanding just what contribution those folks are gonna have when the Great Depression of 2000 begins.

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.

Now if you don't have anything intelligent to say regarding the FACTS of y2k that have been CLEARLY presented on this forum, please shut the fuck up or head over to the Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot forum.

Thanks for the tip. I'll have to visit.

However, because I challenge crap passed along as facts, I think, gives me something intellegent to say. I haven't yet resorted to attacking you personally (but I can certainly start) nor have I suggested you go away. Are you afraid of me? Revile what you fear? Does logic burn your brain?

I don't recall telling anybody what do to as to personal preparations. I have not posted anywhere that people should stop preparing.

If there is a general depression, where the hell are YOU gonna work? Taking lots of cash out? Well if the shit hits the fan like you say it's going to, your money will be worthless. Besides, some punks will probably take it from you anyway, unless you guys start a collective community to share your goods and protect one another...hmmm...kinda sounds like COMMUNISM, doesn't it? Damned pinko bastard.

By the way, I attend Y2k business meetings daily, and I do interact with several governmental agencies. Also, I am involved in a technology company's Y2k efforts. So yes, I think I do know what I am talking about.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 09, 1999.

There's your problem a. You believe Cory is an expert programmer. He runs an OS/2 web-site for cryin' out loud.

He's a pundit, like the rest of us. No more, no less.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

Key players? Try the millions of programmers and engineers who are out there.

Gotta go now.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

For JAW:

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&TL=

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 09, 1999.

JAW----- Your post about three posts up from this one sure sounds like you are starting to get it. Be careful. If you are hanging out or attending meetings with the true spinners you can't take the chance of really saying it as it is.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 09, 1999.

JAW said, and [a] says:

However, because I challenge crap passed along as facts, I think, gives me something intellegent to say. I haven't yet resorted to attacking you personally (but I can certainly start) nor have I suggested you go away. Are you afraid of me? Revile what you fear? Does logic burn your brain?

[ Here's your opening salvo:

"He could be right, I'll admit it, but I think statisically I have about the same chance as sprouting a duck on my butt. If there are riots and such, the evil government will squash any resistance with their anthrax armed black helicopters anyway. So what are you worried about? How on Earth can anybody be certain what will happen in the Y2k sillyness? All we know is that something could happen. Nobody knows for sure. Nobody."

[ I think that was a personal attack, and it didn't sound too intelligent]

I don't recall telling anybody what do to as to personal preparations. I have not posted anywhere that people should stop preparing.

[that sounded intelligent]

If there is a general depression, where the hell are YOU gonna work?

[that's why I'm concerned]

Taking lots of cash out? Well if the shit hits the fan like you say it's going to, your money will be worthless.

[two words: precious metal]

Besides, some punks will probably take it from you anyway,

[two more words: assault rifle]

unless you guys start a collective community to share your goods and protect one another...hmmm...kinda sounds like COMMUNISM, doesn't it? Damned pinko bastard.

[that sounded personal]

By the way, I attend Y2k business meetings daily, and I do interact with several governmental agencies. Also, I am involved in a technology company's Y2k efforts. So yes, I think I do know what I am talking about.

[oh so you're a pointy haired manager! Why didn't you say so! Thanks for the confession. ]

Buddy: Your problem appears to be that you don't know the meaning of expert programmer. But I'm willing to listen if you'd like to explain your definition.

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.

Hopefully I will not miss any posts, and if I do, I apologize. Now on with the business.

Senator Bennett as noted above, *could*. The track record of Senator Bennett paints him as much more of a polly then the vast majority of this forum, and I don't remember anyone ever posting a quote from him a few days or weeks ago that said he will be keeping a few weeks of food and 55 gallons of water. Hardly a more extreme preparation viewpoint than most do in this forum.

Corys track record speaks for itself. He doesn't add anything to what he writes other than the spin of doom and gloom. Cory also has made several predictions that have yet to pan out at all. His accuracy on y2k has been limited to someone picking numbers out of a hat. Its funny at this stage of the game many are still skeptical of the upcoming consequences of y2k if the writing is on the wall.

And that is the whole point. When the bombing in the Balkans began, predictions that a war between the US and Russia was just seconds away. Then the bombing of the Chinese embassy was the catalyst for the 3rd world war. And now hardly a peep about what filled this forum weeks and months ago. Many are praying that nuclear war will prove once and for all that the GI's were right.

Cognitive disonance is what I personally chalkup to the reason that many consider themselves to be in the GI level. After spending thousands of dollars on food, guns, moving expenses, water, training, books, magazines, newsletters, and ect ect ect. Now you have to prove to yourself that you did not waste any of that money. Phrases such as, prepare for the worst, hope for the best, prove that the general feeling is that we need to continue to pound into our brain that we have made the right decision.

And the other suggestion that the food that is stockpiled can be used to eat instead of going to your local grocery store is fine to say as a individual, but for the vast majority that will not be the case. Society is not going to be happy downing white rice and MRE's when they know that their neighbor is dining on steak. A good analogy is when you have a picnic, do you for the next 3 to 4 days continue to eat the leftovers only?

-- Pat (BAMECW@aol.com), June 09, 1999.

Everytime a PR flack for government, a bank, utility, or Fortune-500 company opens his mouth about Y2K, it always sounds like either "Y2K? What's that?" or "I was never alone with that woman...". You can't convince enough people fast enough. Go buy more beans, rice, and ammo, and know that you will be glad you have chosen to be one of the few, the proud, the (living thru Y2K) ants.

my site: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), June 09, 1999.

The fart-catcher known as MinnesotaSmith may be the most vile Y2K creature out there - this side of Milne. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling" - unless you come to my Web site and buy stuff...

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 09, 1999.

To Buddy and Jaw....you two guys are quite something, MMMM, MMMMM.I think you have impressed upon us all, the obvious explaination of how the world has suddenly found itself rumped from behind. We have big- brains like you two, to thank for the perpetuation of the two digit year. Cory attempted to warn about it. perhaps you guys were on your cellular phones to your stock-brokers. You knuckle-heads are soooooo far out of cory's league, you will never find your way home. I couldn't be happier you "don't get it". Two less maggots out of the gene pool. There are many here among us, who would be willing to take the time needed (obviously plenty of it) to fill you in on the reality of this problem, except....ohhh, look at the time, it's *JUNE 1999*. Times up boys! NEXT?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

Mr. Milne, That sure was quite an attack on Flint...not speaking for him of course... but I did read where he is heavily prepared including extra food supplies to give to others in a time of crisis. I'm certainly not saying I agree with everything he says, but I did read that in one of his statements.

Are you saying that he is suggesting that others do nothing when he himself is preparing or what?

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 09, 1999.

Pat, you're just plain sad. We're not trying to scare anybody here. we're only trying to bring to people's attention, the truth about a scary problem, and, as Hamasaki has pointed out, the obvious outcome of too many who will have never *honestly* been told. You may stick your head up your ass or curl up like a ball in the corner or get out there and DO something about it. *I* could truely care less. I've given you three different options to consider and now, my job is over. NEXT?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

Trolls will be trolls. They can't seem to get an erection out of Biffy and debuggery any longer, so they inhabit this place and try to convince us that the mission statement of our forum is flawed.

-- Troll-b-gone (sick@of.trolls), June 09, 1999.

I love this forum. I clicked on a Y2K prediction and got a chance to read an acrimonious debate. I'm not complaining, I enjoyed reading this one.

But at risk of getting back to the topic, I have a prediction. I lack any expertise to back it up, but I'd be curious to know what anyone thinks would qualify as expertise for this sort of thing. #1. There will not be any panic in September, or October, or November. Perhaps December will start to get a little tense.

There are numerous expertises as far as predicting what will happen next year - and I lack all of them. But I have a prediction: global depression but the house of cards remains standing for the most part. Is that polly? I'm preparing for worse though. So is that D&G?

I like debate, and clearly the people above do too. I've read polly reasoning that doomers are bad because they can create self- fulfilling prophecies about bank runs, etc. And I've read the doomer reasoning that pollies are bad because they'll be unprepared and are influencing others to be unprepared. I would guess that each side over-rates the bad influence the other can have. Either way all this anger seems a waste of energy. Anybody can post here, as the quality of some posts proves. No sense taking offense.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 10, 1999.

Gus - I think I'd feel better if we could weld that house of cards together.....glue it together, and what breaks will not likely pull down what remains viable.

But, without a viable, resilient social fabric to hold it together dispite discomfort, irritation, and fear, ...... there are too many crimes, too many people too self-centered to be truly optimistic....

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 10, 1999.

Gus: If we were to have "smooth sailing" up until Dec, I would tend to agree with you. However, Gartner and others predict that y2k effects will start in July. I think that is what Cory bases his Sept forecast on. And don't forget to factor in the stock market crash/derivative fund collapse/speculative bubble burst that will occur sometime between now and then.

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Sometime after Labor Day, the 'talking heads' on network TV will say or indicate something that starts JQP to think (gasp!! Yes, JQP CAN think...just doesn't do it often). Then JQP will go looking for info....and buying little bits of stuff...and looking...and buying. Suddenly, something he/she wants isn't there!!! OH MY God....We better buy everything in the store!!!

THAT'S what Cory is talking about.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

Of course, he's basing this theory on the hopes that JQP does *indeed* have the ability to reason. We'll probably see a massive snarl and overload of the phone systems first, as JQP attempts to call every person they know to ask what they should do.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 10, 1999.

(1) We are talking about human panic here. This makes a prediction more difficult because humans are not always totally rational...and panic, by definition, precludes individuals having a lot of rationality. Therefore, our level of uncertainty must needs be higher. Or, it gonna be hard to tell when the panic start.

(2) With more investment advisors (and others) discussing potential Y2K problems, more and more individuals are going to start getting a clue that there is indeed cause to do some additional preparation... even if only 3-7 days worth. This could cause some shortages. The shortages would cause additional panic, causing additional shortages, etc.

(3) People's last minute preparations will be spotty, and not well thought out. Therefore, while some items may be unavailable, other, less obvious items should remain available to those who are preparing in more depth. We should concentrate on those items that are available, not on those that are not.

(4) The sooner "panics" start, the more notice producers will have that they need to ramp up production. The more time, the more they will be able to produce. The longer they are deferred, the less time there will be to distribute even available stocks.

(5) Stock market could be a trigger. September/October are popular months for crashes...

(6) I don't know if the government could do much any more.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 10, 1999.

PAT & Everyone- If I wake up on 01-01-00 and find I have no use for my preps, it would be the happiest day of my life. Nuff said.

-- Gia (Laureltree7@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Hey, a@a.a, look what Buddy (aka Doomslayer) thinks --

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 26455471&P=Yes&TL=926407580

Tuesday, 11-May-1999 16:44:31

Sometimes I wonder if "a@a.a" is Ed Yourdon.

Buddy

What you all have to understand is the Der Boonkahs really and truly believe we are infected with a mind virus they call a doom meme and that we are spreading this infection. They are on a crusade to stop us!

Here's what Cow Patty said when Invar posted a farewell note --

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 27850125&P=Yes&TL=927824470

Thursday, 27-May-1999 20:08:45

Invar has decided to no longer post over at the swamp. His post should be posted far and wide to show exactly what the Meme contagion is. . . .

Pat

When Ed retired from the forum, Nobody's Buddy wrote --

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 28290658&P=Yes&TL=928289839

Tuesday, 01-Jun-1999 22:30:58

Like we care! Hahahaha

The doom-meme is dead.

Buddy

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 10, 1999.

Also, Buddy would have to have started coding at the ripe age of 10 in order to accumulate 22 years, unless he's bi-polar and counts each personality's experience.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 10, 1999.

I guess I was wrong about the doom meme being dead.

Lisa and Outings (one and the same?) you sure don't do much but stir up trouble and whine alot. I may be a troll in your eyes but at least I stay on topic.

Also, check the archives. In the first "What about you?" thread you'll find my age.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 10, 1999.

Then there's this other thread where you state you were born on the anniversary of JFK's assassination, in the late sixties.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 10, 1999.

Can't you morons (and you know who you are, A + for effort) see the "writing on the wall" -

It's gonna be nasty - maybe Braveheart - maybe 1932, but it's gonna be in between those two...

I would cackle but I'm not a bint and not old enuff.....

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 10, 1999.

Y2K Pro,

It is wrong for you to criticize Minnesota Smith. The more preparations we do, the better off we will be. Do you really expect for a lot of people to work their tails off for free? If so, I have some leaves in my yard ready for you to come rake up.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), June 10, 1999.

Read it again, Lisa. JFK's assassination was my 4th birthday, in 1963. Failed high school history did ya?

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 10, 1999.

Buddy: I'm flattered that you think I'm Ed Yourdon, but I only have 16 years in the business, not 32, and my pants are a size 38, not 44. :)

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Braveheart???? Oh no, not millions of Mel Gibson clones running around in their skirts whilst hurling insults at the English.......that would be TEOTWAWKI

And what's all this talk about staying on topic. At least I always stay on topic. Did you know that Topic is a type of chocolate bar available in fine stores in England. Betcha Mel Gibson don't eat 'em though. I like chocolate. Especially Mars Bars....speaking of Mars, it's one of my favourite planets.........

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), June 10, 1999.

Craig, good to see ya back. Topic, schmopic. It's a free-for-all from here in.....

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 10, 1999.

I said last November or December that panic would begin this September. Anybody thinking about preparing in December will find empty shelves and alot of other people looking at those same empty shelves. Remember happy talk from the idiot tube makes everybody sleepy and very lazy.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Oh, and I should probably add that Buddy is a -2 on the scale, self-professed. That is, for him, Y2K is a good thang. (Even in DC, somehow.)

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 10, 1999.

That was that day, Lisa. Today I'm at -1.999

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 10, 1999.

Will one you goddamned GI's answer my question? "I still haven't had an answer to my first question: If the government plan is to deny, deny, deny, why have they owned up to the problems in D.C.? "

JAW----- Your post about three posts up from this one sure sounds like you are starting to get it. Be careful. If you are hanging out or attending meetings with the true spinners you can't take the chance of really saying it as it is.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 09, 1999.

What friggin' planet are you on? I TELL other people in my company what to test for. By BOSS got the company's president award for his Y2k leadership in the company. We have customers converting over to OUR system because we have Kicked Ass and Taken Names! I am fucking PROUD of how we have handled the Y2k thing in my company, and so are our customers. We have had independent auditors and government agencies out of the ying yang coming down all over us. Our customers demanded it, and we delivered. And just because we have done a fucking AWESOME job at it doesn't mean we are lying. We HAD to an awesome job. We want to stay in business. So don't tell me I'm "Getting it" because we are doing well. I know the status of our shit just as well as anyone in the company. Our executives are really concerned. It's not a game to them, and me either. But WE KICKED Y2K ASS. If I told you our products were compliant, which they ARE, you bastards wouldn't believe me. I could show you all the fucking dates we tested (nearly TWENTY of them) and you GI's still wouldn't believe me. But our customers do. So DON'T tell me I don't "GET IT"

And you "a":

[ I think that was a personal attack, and it didn't sound too intelligent]

I didn't attack anyone personally, but I do think that was quite a pithy remark. And kinda funny. Oh, and sarcastic, too. Calling you an ignoramous butt pumper and a hamster humper is a personal attack. But I didn't do that. Although I do have to admit that 'pinko bastard' comment was a bit personal, but funny enough that I should say it anyway. Humor dictated it.

{oh so you're a pointy haired manager! } Now that was, indeed, personal. You think just because someone is not a programmer that they don't understand the Y2k problem. Bullshit. There are MANY people that aren't programmers that run large computer systems (JES, operations, hardware, project managers, network support). Yer an ignoramous butt pumpin' hamster humper. THAT was personal.

Will Continue: {We have big- brains like you two, to thank for the perpetuation of the two digit year. Cory attempted to warn about it. perhaps you guys were on your cellular phones to your stock-brokers. }

You have been smoking crack. That is so fucking ludicrous.

{the obvious outcome of too many who will have never *honestly* been told. }

Then what is the "truth?" The news releases that are positive about things that you bastards completely ignore? The "truth" of that unsubstantiated crap that you all pass along as facts? (oh, similar to that "fact" printed above, eh?)

Why can you all not believe anything positive? Why is the fucking world coming to an end? How is it that you are so positive that the world absolutely WILL end? How can you tell?

I know Y2k is a problem. No one is arguing about if it is a problem or not. I know it has to be fixed, I've been involved in fixing it myself for a large technology company. But JESUS you guys ignore anything positive and are SURE that there will be chaos and TEOTWAWKI.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 10, 1999.

Craig, Inspired by your Braveheart conceit, I now show my ass to my enemies:

(.)

Pat and Buddy, You guys keep the soothing sounds of sanity flowing.

Where the hell is Deano-Beano in this shit?

Poole? Help me fight this mental Priapism!

Flint! Make some sparks, man!

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 10, 1999.

JAW:

Hey, calm down. You'll never get through to the knee-jerks, and the rest of us understand what you're saying.

If you just read for a long while, you'll notice two things: (1) A lot of the no-hope crowd here claim to be long-time programmers; and (2) not one of them has ever stepped forward and admitted not being competetent to remediate what they're working on. Even the Great Hamasaki only "knows of" hopeless (but never named) projects. He's never said "I can't do it" and neither has anyone else here. It's always "They (someone else, not me) can't do it".

Conversely, we have quite a few people here, both programmers and managers, who stridently claim that they have licked the problem within their organization, and are often optimistic about their key suppliers, whom they have sometimes audited themselves, and even assisted. Of course, all such claims are dismissed if made politely, and if less politely, then such people are effectively rendered Postera non Grata.

So take a lot of people claiming success in their area, *nobody* admitting defeat in *their* area, and add it all up. What do you get? We're doomed, what else?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 10, 1999.

Ahhhh...now I can go to sleep. Thanks, Flint.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 10, 1999.

JAW and Flint: Contrary to what you may believe, the outcome of y2k has almost nothing to do with succesful remediation of a few companies. Its a systemic problem and will be exacerbated by many other situations that will be occuring roughly in parallel. I'm not going to argue any futher with you on this thread, because it is OBVIOUS to me that you are ignoring vast amounts of important information that is now readily available.

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Uh Buddy, you said there that you are 38. Personally, I never count my high school dinking as professional computer experience. Do you have that on your resume?

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

You can't add today, David. And I've been making money working with computers since 1977.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 11, 1999.

I might not be able to add, but I can subtract; 38-22=16 years old. Right?

Hey, I made a little money as a high school student doing some custom programming myself, but I probably wouldn't use it as bragging rights in this forum. Just me, I guess.

----------------------------

I'm 38, in two weeks will have been married 12 years, have a 6 yr. old son and a 6 month old daughter. I was born and raised in Washington, DC, where my wife and I now live in her childhood home. I have rubbed elbows with politicians, lobbyists, diplomats, etc. but consider myself an outsider like most Americans. I have been a programmer, taught computer science in a DC inner-city public high school, and am now a systems analyst for a 180 year old scientific association in Rockville, Maryland.

Answered by Buddy Y. (buddy@bellatlantic.net) on September 22, 1998.

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

Everyone's probably done with this thread now, but I thought I'd chip in: Flint _did_ day:

"Like you, I'm insuring against about an 8. I'm betting on about a 3."

Paul probably wishes he would disclose that prep level every time he posts.

Another word for troll: bully. They are like kids finding a group of other kids they can pick on in school. One that won't be defended too much by the society outside, either before or after Jan. 1. In Serbia, the bullies got Kalashnikovs from Milosovic and were sent to Bosnia and Kosovo. Bullies need jobs (away from here). Any suggestions?

Thanks to those who don't get caught up in personal bickering.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), June 12, 1999.

JAW - I missed this thread (somehow) - but I gotta know - you haven't by any chance copyrighted the following?

******Yer an ignoramous butt pumpin' hamster humper*******

I have been looking for a replacement for my old tired well-worn hyperbolic super-descriptive flame:

*******sorry sack of siberian sheep shi_ *******

wanna trade? can I use yours every now and again - if I give due credit?

snif - haven't laughed so hard in at least an hour

justme

-- justme (finally@home.com), June 12, 1999.

So, David, I turned 39 in November, 1998. Duh!

Anyway, what was your point, that I don't have 22 years experience with computers and digital technology, as I stated it? OK, subtract 4 for my college years (even though I made plenty of money then). Still 18 years. So what? All I'm saying is my opinion is just as good as Cory Hamasaki's.

Have another donut.

-- Buddy (you@know.where), June 12, 1999.

Thanks for the compliment. Y2k is so serious, but there's no reason you can't have fun with it. If you can't have fun, what's the point?

No, I don't have a copyright on that, but I will allow to post wherever you deem necessary (but please pay homage to ME!).

:)

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 14, 1999.