I'm coming back to this because previous threads on this topic are now archived and unlikely to be noted by newcomers here.

Reference: Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project Summary

From the opening section, Project Objective:

"In short, the questions are, "Can Y2K engender enough local crisis situations of significance to the U.S. to represent a stressing of our DoD-led response capability?" And, if so, "How best to prepare?" Keep in mind, though, that our focus is not to create a list of possible problems (we leave that to the intelligence organizations). Rather, it is to frame the larger dynamics of the Y2K event as it may unfold in any non-US country (by generating a range of generic Y2K scenarios and a realistic model of Y2K event dynamicssee below)."

Thus the scope of the scenarios presented is explicitly limited to events in countries other than the United States, and to consideration of their effect on United States interests.

The U.S.A. is probably among the short list of countries most at risk from Y2K, given the level of our high-tech industrial and financial development. Intensive remediation work already done and in progress here will surely reduce that risk to some extent. But the elements of risk here are the same as in other highly industrialized nations.

So it seems not all that much of a stretch to relate these scenarios to our own situation as well. It's hard to imagine that the attendees at these NWC conferences would not have had this in mind in their deliberations. The decision to cast their speculations as being applicable only to other countries is certainly understandable, all things considered.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), June 24, 1999

Answers

For those of you who may not have read the original page referred to, I suggest that you visit it. Some of the scenarios are truly sobering. The Naval War College is NOT talking about a three day winter storm.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 24, 1999.

Lest we not forget the efforts of others in figuring out Y2K. Here is a link that trys to simplify the site and the previous threads involved.

Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project Links (Long)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 24, 1999.

To add my voice to the choir, let me note that the Naval War College has a similar position of prestige, reputation for solid reasoning and integrity in the Naval community that the IEEE holds in the civilian sector.

The people doing these analyses and scenario projections are some of the best minds in our society. Their thoughts are indeed worth your time.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), June 24, 1999.

Thomas P.M. Barnett, project director is presently writing the Project Report. It will be published on the web in html format. He hopes to have it completed mid/late July.

In the mean time, if you'd like to play around with ideas that map to your local environments...

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), June 24, 1999.

Again, if you want to play around with some ideas...

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), June 24, 1999.