This is kind of a clarification of the previous posts on the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project that is being studied at the U.S. Naval War College.  The links immediately below are the threads which the topic has been brought up. This is a particularly interesting set of documents so I have taken a bit of effort and listed the issues brought up by month starting with the most recent first.

There is lots of insight and even a bit of humor in the Project documents, Please do check them out. Also it is interesting the May project "economic groupthink" is not on the military web site. Only on the Geocities. The Resume of the project director is on the Geocities site and not on the military.

The Author has posted comments on some of the threads below on this topic. I think he could have saved Government money and come here first. We should have a "shadow thinktank" :o)

Who Is Smarter, You or an "Elite" Person? Take this simple test.

The M Curve of Elite Influence Over Y2K Event

If You Like Being Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Everyone Needs to Read the Second Response to Jon Johnson's Panic thread (No Text.)

A good article on the govt. and PANIC
 
 

I would recommend checking out the Summary below to get a grasp on the detail in this site.

Most Recent Project Summary May 99
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2kproj.htm
 

Hope this helps!

Brian

Home page (Naval College
Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Project Director

Authors Project home page (Geocities)
 Naval War College Y2K Project Site

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U.S. Naval War College
Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Decision Support Department
3/24/99 UPDATE

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Project Objective:

Formulate Department of Navy (DoN) input to Department of Defense (DoD) review of possible courses of action (COAs) with regard to U.S. Government (USG) responses to the global unfolding of the Y2K systemic event--however defined (and there are plenty of definitions out there). Project is not about U.S. domestic Y2K situation or consequence management thereof, nor about Y2K problem within USG or DoD. Instead, we focus on potential for Y2K to serveÐin conjunction with any "millennial mania"Ðas triggering event or catalyst for significant scenarios of domestic or cross-border instability in enough countries around the world so as to represent a higher-than-average frequency of possible USG and/or DoD response efforts (typically, about 6-8 crisis responses per year since late 1940s). Examples of response efforts might include intervention along the lines of past Complex Humanitarian Emergencies (CHEs) or other DoD activities designed to restore stability. In short, the questions are, "Can Y2K engender enough local crisis situations of significance to the U.S. to represent a stressing of our DoD-led response capability?" And, if so, "How best to prepare?"  Keep in mind, though, that our focus is not to create a list of possible problems (we leave that to the intelligence organizations).  Rather, it is to frame the larger dynamics of the Y2K event as it may unfold in any non-US country (by generating a range of generic Y2K scenarios and a realistic model of Y2K event dynamics--see below).  Thus, while others in the USG and DoD are concentrating their energies on how best to launch specific policy initiatives or prepare for specific missions, the Naval War College endeavors to create the larger policy framework (concentrating more on "how?" and "when?" questions than "what?" questions) within which these individual tasks can be oriented for maximum positive effect.  In short, we're working to create a "do's and don'ts" list for DoD as it wades ever deeper in the unfolding Y2K global event.

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Project End-Date Target:

Currently set for the end of May 1999.  Our summary brief has already been presented to the following entities (in addition to representatives from other organizations who attended one or more of our three workshops to date; see below):

• Center for Naval Analyses
• Vice Chief of Naval Operations
• Under Secretary of the Navy
• N3/5, OPNAV
• J7, Joint Staff
• J38, Joint Staff
• J2, Joint Staff
• Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for C3I
• University of Virginia
• Defense Intelligence Agency
• Central Intelligence Agency
• Y2K National Contingency Planning Group, Government of Canada
• J2/J3 of Joint Force Headquarters, Government of Canada
• Chief of Naval Operations, Republic of Turkey

 

Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project

Naval War College Y2K Project Site
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm

The project examines potential for Year 2000 Problem in computer and embedded chips to engender crises of political, economic, and/or social instability in countries around the world

 

 
 
 

Most Recent Project Summary May 99
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2kproj.htm

Project Objective: Formulate Department of Navy (DoN) input to Department of Defense (DoD) review of possible courses of action (COAs) with regard to U.S.Government (USG) responses to the global unfolding of the Y2K systemic event

May

Y2k may Read Ahead
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/y2kmayra.html

READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Y2K ECONOMIC SECURITY WORKSHOP

 

 
 
 

Economic Security Workshop
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/Mayy2kgs.html

U.S. Naval War College Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project Group

Systems Inputs forEconomic Security Workshop
 

I. Consensus View on Market Indicators Across Scenario Phases
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/May1.html

INSTRUCTIONS: Tell us what you think will be the net market impact of Y2K on the following market indicators, given our description to you of what a stressing global Y2K scenario could look like.

 

 
 
 

II. Y2K Mania/Countdown Phase--Brainstorming on Possible Market
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/May2.html

INSTRUCTIONS: From your initial brainstorming list of 30+ possible market legacies stemming from the Mania/Countdown Phase, you have collectively identified the eight following issues as potentially having the greatest long-term impact:

 

 
 
 

III. Y2K Onset/Unfolding Phase--Brainstorming on Possible Market
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/May3.html

INSTRUCTIONS: From your initial brainstorming list of 30+ possible market legacies stemming from the Onset/Unfolding Phase, you have collectively identified the seven following issues as potentially having the greatest long-term impact:

 

 
 
 

IV. Y2K Peak/Exit Phase--Brainstorming on Possible Market
http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/May4.html

NSTRUCTIONS: From your initial brainstorming list of 30+ possible market legacies stemming from the Mania/Countdown Phase, you have collectively identified the eight following issues as potentially having the greatest long-term impact:

 

 
 
 

March

Naval War College Y2K Workshop: DOD/CINC Strategies

I. Y2K Mania/Countdown Phases--Feedback on Policy "Do's and Don'ts"

INSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents our generic advice to a notional country's elite regarding their potential "management" of the Y2K experience within their borders. For this pair of Y2K event phases, please offer your feedback along the following

 

 
 
 

II. Y2K Mania/Countdown Phases--Feedback on Possible CINC Missions

INSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents a draft list of possible CINC missions for this pair of Y2K event phases. Please offer your feedback along the following three lines:

 

 
 
 

III. Y2K Onset/Unfolding Phases--Feedback on Policy "Do's and Don'ts"

NSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents our generic advice to a notional country's elite regarding their potential "management" of the Y2K experience within their borders. For this pair of Y2K eventphases, please offer your feedback along the following

 

 
 
 

IV. Y2K Onset/Unfolding Phases--Feedback on Possible CINC Missions

NSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents a draft list of possible CINC missions for this pair of Y2K event phases. Please offer your feedback along the following three lines:

 

 
 
 

V. Y2K Peak/Exit Phases--Feedback on Policy "Do's and Don'ts"

INSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents our generic advice to a notional country's elite regarding their potential "management" of the Y2K experience within their borders. For this pair of Y2K event phases, please offer your feedback

 

 
 
 

VI. Y2K Peak/Exit Phases--Feedback on Possible CINC Missions

INSTRUCTIONS: The slide below presents a draft list of possible CINC missions for this pair of Y2K event phases. Please offer your feedback along the following three lines:

 

January

January Y2K Scenario-Dynamics Workshop

Workshop Session I: The Mania: Impressions and Advice (Categorizer)

GroupSystems Inputs forY2K Scenario-Dynamics Workshop Held at the Pell Center, Salve Regina University, Newport RI,13-15 January 1999

Slide: The M Curve of Elite Influence Over the Y2K Event

I. Y2K Mania Phase E-Mails to a Top Policy Adviser of

INSTRUCTIONS: You have just received an urgent e-mail from your friend, a top policy adviser to the country's leader. In it, your friend asks for:

Your impressions of the current situation Advice on what the leader should be on the lookout for
 

II. Y2K Countdown Phase E-Mails . . .

INSTRUCTIONS: You have just received an urgent e-mail from your friend, a top policy adviser to the country's leader. In it, your friend asks for:

Your impressions of the current situation, Advice on what the leader should be on the lookout for
 

III. Y2K Onset Phase E-Mails . . .

In it, your friend asks for: Your impressions of the current situation Advice on what the leader should be on the lookout for Specific examples of what the leader should do to deal with the Y2K experience as it continues

 

 
 
 

IV. Y2K Unfolding Phase E-Mails . . .

In it, your friend asks for: Your impressions of the current situation Advice on what the leader should be on the lookout for Specific examples of what the leader should do to what deal with the Y2K experience as it continues

 

 
 
 

V. Y2K Peak Phase E-Mails . . .

V. Y2K Peak Phase E-Mails to a Top Policy Adviser of the Leader of Country X

 

 
 
 

VI. Y2K Exit Phase E-Mails . . .

VI. Y2K Exit Phase E-Mails to a Top Policy Adviser ofthe Leader of Country X INSTRUCTIONS: You have just received an urgent e-mail from your friend, a top policy adviser to the country's leader. In it, your friend asks for:

 

 
 
 

VII. Malevolent Acts During Y2K Event and Defenses

INSTRUCTIONS: Please provide us with your best ideas of possible malevolent acts some individuals, groups, organizations, or governments might perpetrate under the cover of the Y2K event.

 

 
 
 

VIII. "You Make the Call!" on Y2K by Region

INSTRUCTIONS: Please provide us with your bestpersonal estimate as tohow the Y2K (with accompanying millennial event) will proceed in:

Latin America, Europe + Russia, Southwest, South, and Central Asia, East Asia, Africa.
 

December

December Y2K Scenario-Building Workshop

READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR 3-4 DECEMBER SCENARIO-BUILDING WORKSHOP AT U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Director 401.841.4053/barnettt@nwc.navy.mil

 

 
 
 

Y2K as Discrete/Periodic Events (Categorizer)
GroupSystems Inputs for3-4 December Y2K Scenario-Building Workshop
Held at Sims Hall, U.S. Naval War College, 3-4 December 1998

Y2K as Discrete/Periodic Events (Categorizer)

I. "Headlines in History" for Y2K as Discrete and Periodic Events Leading Edge Headline (Pre-31 Jan 00) [amplifying comments inbrackets] Markets Across the World Experience Big JumpFollowing Y2K"Non-Event" on Wall Street

 

 
 
 

Time Out! Screams Wall Street: Overnight Computer Glitches Abroad Spook Stock Exchange

II. "Headlines in History" for Y2K as Widespread and Sustained Event

Leading Edge Headline (Pre-31 Jan 00)  Time Out! Screams Wall Street: Overnight Computer Glitches Abroad Spook Stock Exchange

Euro Plunges as Yanks Dump Infected Money [Blaming the conversion software used in calculating the Euro for crashing their networks

Euro Plunges as Yanks Dump Infected Money [Blaming the conversion software used in calculating the Euro for crashing their networks on the first day of trading in the new year, Wall Street currency operators shut down trading of Euros yesterday

 

 
 
 

My Kingdom for a Calculator! Its Back to the Future for London Traders

My Kingdom for a Calculator! Its Back to the Future for London Traders as Y2K Hits [Alwaysone for tradition, London traders have spent the last week"traveling back in time" about 20 years, according to many observers. As the Millennium Bug brought down

 

 
 
 

*****V. "Isolators" and "Cascaders" to Watch During Y2K

V. "Isolators" and "Cascaders" to Watch During Y2K Season/Event 1999 testing of Y2K vulnerable systems

 

 

Internet chat rooms

The price of gold Kerosene sales Transistor radio sales

***1. Y Did We Worry?2. Much Ado About Nothing 3. The Great Escape

VI. Proposed Quadrant/Scenario Names (Top Ten by Votes) Best-Case Scenario (Y2K asdiscrete/episodic and systems are robust)

 

 

1. Y Did We Worry?2. Much Ado AboutNothing 3. The Great Escape 4. All Quiet On theWestern Front
 

Y2K as Discrete/Periodic Events (Categorizer)

Asia forms new regional group -- replaces APEC--to exclude US.

 

 

Antarctica largely unaffected except for two Chilean scientists who couldn't afford new laptops.
 
 

 

Tom Barnett's Resume

Directing DSD Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project for President, NWC; project examines potential for Year 2000 Problem in computer and embedded chips to engender crises of political, economic, and/or social instability in countries

 

 
 
 

Tom Barnett's Short Biography

 
 
 

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 20, 1999

Answers

Brian,

Thanks for getting all those links together in one place. Good job!

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 20, 1999.

Brian,

I was introduced to this site a few days ago on this forum. I havn't gone through it all yet.

First impression: It is a well thought out scenerio of events and possible recourses/outcomes. I can't find anything subversive to elements of society that respect the rule of law. Respect was given to even the most extreme fearmongers (they know who they are). I am happy that there are such outlined and well thought out plans.

but then we all remember what john stienbeck said about plans.

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

of rodents and peoples kids eh?

My suprise at the rating that G North got (raising awareness). I have only gone there for the odd newslink. Funny listening to him on Art Bell you get a differant insight into Gary, he is quite quiet and more reserved, say more than others that frequent the net :o) And speaking of Milne, the above documents never refered to him that I seen. Slap on the face if you ask me :o) The guy is a historic figure on the www in regards to Y2K and he has only been posting for a year and a half. I rarely read Paul either.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 21, 1999.