If You Like Being Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

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I'm particularly fond of the table showing the "Elite" ability to affect the masses.

Is this your tax dollars at work?

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 17, 1999

Answers

Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

On the one hand, there is little new information here, but in its presentation this is among the most bizarre and incendiary pieces of writing I've seen on the topic.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 17, 1999.

Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Well....

This is authentic, isn't it?

Uh.......

Unacceptable.

Damn, this one hurts...

-no wonder middle gouund's so elusive. Critt



-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), May 17, 1999.

Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Here is the same info from

U.S. Naval War College Center for Naval Warfare Studies Decision Support Department

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm

-- Hmmm (noSpam@notReal.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Look what these doomers are spouting . . . then go and look at the list of forum participants.



-- Puddintame (
achillesg@hotmail.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

I'll try that link once more (otherwise click my name above)

link

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 17, 1999.



Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

CAUTION!!!!

While downloading this information my system crashed and had to be reloaded.

coincidence???

Has only happened once before, while in a questionable site.

-- MUD (turtle@ubysa.iam), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

I think "elite" is just shorthand for "power elite." None of the material comes as much of a surprise; it was all predictable--indeed, most of it HAS been predicted on this forum. You have to bear in mind it IS from a military, not a civilian, point of view and it DOES originate from the War College, not a liberal college somewhere! I'm not defending the content, just trying to add a bit of perspective.

Also, if it's the War College I'm familiar with, it's in Norfolk, VA, wherein also is found the North American HQ of Nato, along with military representatives from all Nato countries who, I believe, are permitted to attend courses at the college. Hence, the participants in the think tank probably have had exposure to a variety of overseas views and, most likely, service experience in many countries as well. It's worth bearing in mind that they will have a better idea than most how foreign military personnel will react in an emergency, having participated in joint exercises with them.

In addition, these are just free-wheeling thoughts we're reading, almost stream-of-consciousness. These people don't have the power to enact, only to recommend.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

I love this part.

What Advice We Got Right

Re: Punishing "panic mongers": Who does the defining of what is panic? I hear Gary North denounced quite a bit in many Y2K sessions as a panic monger or words to that effect, but it could arguably be said that he has done more that most to intellectually prepare thousands of people to think about the implications of Y2K. And he did it before most. So, we have an early total lack of leadership from the White House, (some) leadership in the Senate and House (but still inadequate), and strong pressures from Wall Street not to "rock the boat"--even against the Senate. Therefore, by definition, anyone who brings the (potential) bad news is viewed as a "panic monger" by the Establishment. This does not bode well. Those who reach very strong negative conclusions based on the data available should be challenged (and if necessary discredited) NOW in the free marketplace of ideas. Or, perhaps some compromise with some of their concerns should be attempted in open fora where all of these concerns and conspiracy theories can be discussed. Absent that, when the real panic hits, government's tendency could be to overreact, thereby bringing about a self-fulfillment of the predictions of those who are most conspiracy-minded. Though we may laugh at those who think that FEMA would somehow be charged to suspend the Constitution, how will we all react to a hare-brained, last minute, not well thought out Executive Order? [Great point. "Panic" and the consequences should be defined now, to prevent the backlog of appeals that may appear and defeat the notion of swift justice.]

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Y2k Dave,

My understanding is that the E.O.s work to empower FEMA. If only these things were "hairbrained, last minute, not well thought out" - they are the exact opposite: diabolically clever, decades in the making, and painstakingly crafted and refined. Is the idea that the Constitution may be suspended a ridiculous one? Read the Executive Orders. They call for an end to private property, as the government sees fit. They call for forced labor removal of citizens from their property and splitting up of families. Registration of all citizens. Control of all media... Does anyone care to dispute these facts? Here are some sources that keep track of all this:

http://www.eaglesup.com/emergency_powers.html

http://www.tricor.net/~myfirst/ClintonEO.htm

http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/eo.html#top

You all had better wake up. If you laugh at "Executive Orders," you haven't read them, don't understand them, or don't care whether you are a slave or free. I'm waiting for someone to tell me these don't exist, or mean nothing. DON'T try to say that the above provisions are "outdated" (someone always quotes a Kennedy E.O. to that effect. ALL powers and provisions have been reincorporated into subsequent E.O.s - yes, we are still looking at the possibility of LEGAL seizure of businesses, seizure of media, forced labor, etc.). Trouble is, the Constitution contains no provision for it's suspension, even in time of emergency. That's going to cause some *lively debate* if ever implementation of these E.O.s is attempted.

Dano

-- Dano (bookem@blacksand.srf), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Old Git,

The Naval War College is indeed in Newport, RI, as is the Naval Warfare Officer School, the Naval Officer Indoctrination School, and until a few years ago, the Naval Officer Candidate School (minus the fly-boys, they went to P'cola).

-- Spindoc' (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), May 17, 1999.



Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Thanks, Spindoc', I should have said that the Nato Staff College is in Norfolk, but it's a very similar pool of experienced people. Sweetie refers to the War College as "Admiral School," and tells me it's only commanders on up who go there, including those from friendly foreign countries. That's not to say that it was solely Navy commanders on up who were involved in the Think Tank. Other branches of the service and other government agencies may have been, and probably were, represented. However, those using the term "CINC" (Commander in Chief) were probably Navy. For instance, CINCLANT means Commander in Chief, Atlantic; CINCPAC, Pacific.

Sweetie says he was fascinated by the old photos at the War College--a c. 1920 photo shows admirals, in full dress whites, playing low-tech war games, i.e,. on the floor on their hands and knees, pushing toy ships around with rulers! Reminded me of those British service women, pushing ships or planes around with long sticks in WWII.

Anyway, I hope everyone looks at this material as from a brainstorming session and not a White House cabinet or Joint Chiefs meeting to decide Y2K tactics. If they can't talk freely and let it all hang out, so they can cull the sense from the nonsense, then NOTHING gets hashed out and we're all screwed when TSHTF and the military is in complete disarray. Just like this forum, all types of views are represented but, admittedly, probably more to the right of the spectrum.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Read the whole thing - don't see anything new in there we haven't already covered in more detail and with better (deeper) analysis.

They do have "neater" graphics - I like the storm scenarios - they just don't realize all 4 (tornado, hurricane, flood, and ice storm are going to occur all at once - to different industries individually and collectively to the whole society.

Also - the elist control chart needs to be skewed greatly in the middle - the alarmist phase is going on now, then the slide when the media frenzy builds (early Nov, then a lull when Wall Street tells Clinotn its bad for Christmas sales, then re-building to a peak post-Christmas purchases, then the sudden peak at Jan 1-10 2000, then the slow recovery to some normal afterwards.

Surprised no Wall Street analysis - other than Pudding's hand-washing link elsewhere. 8<)

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Old Git,

While the "events" (conferences?) comprising the discussions referenced in these web pages appear to be in some way sponsored by the NWC, they appear to occur at various locations. In particular, the location of one such event is described thusly:

"We conducted this workshop at the "Windows on the World" restaurant on the 107th floor of One World Trade Center. Our hosts were Cantor Fitzgerald LP, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt."

You will pardon me if the description of the hosts of that event caught my attention rather more than did the location of the restaurant.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

I agree with Old Git's as usual good sense: This appears to be the big domes' version of the late-night dorm room bull session, but with a twist: these BS'ers can actually influence national policy, if they can get hold of the right ear. Uhh, LEFT ear... well, you know what I mean...

-- Spindoc' (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), May 17, 1999.

Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

So what they're basically saying is the Elite are worried whether they can stave off another French Revolution on American soil. Got guillotines?

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Could someone have hacked into the Naval War College site and put this stuff up?? What I saw was so frightening, at first I thought it was a fake site. Then I backed thru the URL and got onto Naval War College home page. Then I thought, "ok" it must be legitimate. But, couldn't find a link to get me to that site from their NWC home page.

-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), May 17, 1999.

Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

first off look at the urls folks - that's a geocities free website although it links to the NWC *anybody* can link to the NWC sheesh.

it's a phoney and it's also done by someone who is attempting to use vocabulary and syntax which he does not fully understand. There are a number of really silly misuses of common English in the notes - the single funniest one, from the second page of slides is:

"The armed services have a history of retaining a "flexible reserve" in case of unforeseen events. We may want to caution CINCs about fixing all problems immediately as they arise if it could delude their ability to respond to a follow-up--and more important--issue."

delude means mislead in an irrational manner, what they *should* have used to be consistent with their implied meaning was the word "dilute" (i.e. weaken or lessen the concentration / effectiveness of).

in other words it's a hoax.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Arlin

No Joke here, the project homepage below http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 17, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

ah, Brian, thankyou - I stand corrected. I hadn't seen the simulation explained from the top down - all I'd seen were the geocites pages which are three excerpts of some of the summary slides from the working groups...one would think chosen out of context for their potential inflamatory nature, but that might just be coincidence.

O.G. and Spindoc have probably got it right - this looks like a simulation run by NWS to get senior officers to think 'outside of the box' in dealing with a topical problem. Looks like somebody forgot to explain to them that topical problems, even when dealt with from a totally theoretical level, tend to take on a life of their own. viz: the geocities web site which quotes the simulation out of context.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 18, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Yep, Arlin,

I think you got it right. A whole lotta brain-farts. Not neccesarily for Brass-consumption. We shall see if the content was taken to, um, uh, heart. Oh, I hope not...

-- Spindoc' (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), May 18, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

1) Arlin DILUDE DILUTE Which one do ya wanna bet was said?

2) I have NO IDEA why these sites have generated the scurry panic I've heard. I'm GLAD SOMEONE is looking at the STRATEGIC implications they mentioned here. this looks like we got a bunch of us together to ask the questions about the world.

3) It would be NICE to have the documents they used for the discussion so we know what they were responding to.

Chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 18, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

Hi Chuck,

the problem is that if it's on an open NWS website it's probably not considered sensitive - which means most of the folks who are currently in decisionmaking positions are most likely *not* being briefed on the results of the simulation. *sigh*

Arlin

[who did enough simulations to know that they really don't matter unless and until the brass wants them to matter.]

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 18, 1999.


Response to If You Like Beiong Manipulated, You'll Love This Thread! re: Naval War College

arlin, granted that, but how do we know that the folks in the simulation are NOT going to be the surviving officers in 6 months. NONE of us know what BJC might do, and some of those guys that rank flags on the fenders just MIGHT say "NOT ON MY WATCH, M*****-*****. I'm OUT OF HERE and YOU CAN'T HOLD ME!"or words to that effect. Or perhaps they'll end up taking the former CNO's way out (I certainly hope NOT but it IS a possibility) Plus, we don't know how far he'll go down the ranks to pick the next several.

Chuck

Besides, SOMEONE is thinking, they may be junior 3 and 4 stripers, but they ARE thinking. MAYBE the guys with the flags MIGHT ask their staffs for advice soon????

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 18, 1999.


Mud Turtle-- every Geocities website that I have ever opened has crashed my browser -- MSIE 3.0. So I quit opening them.

Maybe Netscape can handle whatever it is they do there.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), May 18, 1999.


I like where they recognize Connie Morella for standing up at the SotU address........

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 18, 1999.

What a remarkable site. I too am glad they are putting this level of thought into the issue.

I notice that CNA is the host. They are the naval think tank who came up with that powerpoint presentation about the electrical grid that turned up on Scary Gary's site in March(?). (cna.org)

This seems to be the objective of the whole series of discussions:

*snip*

Bottom line of Naval War College effort:

Understanding that there is a tremendous gap between the public face many corporations and governments put forward on this issue ("we will have it well in hand") and the private fears and concerns expressed by many information technology experts (ranging from "global recession" to "apocalypse 2000!"), we want to explore this topic in as systematic a fashion as possible. We don't pretend that we'll end up with all the answers, but merely a sensible read on what's possible, how governments and companies are likely to respond across a range of scenarios, and what the USG and DoD should be prepared to undertake in response to Y2K's global unfolding. In short, while we're not interested in unduly hyping the Y2K situation, we are interested in exploring the "dark side" potentials because, frankly, that's what we get paid to do as a research organization that serves the U.S. military.

*endnsnip*

"...We don't pretend that we'll end up with all the answers, but merely a sensible read on what's possible..."

sounds like us....

-- Lewis (Aslanshow@yahoo.com), May 18, 1999.


As I said in the initial "response" the information from this site is not new in any way. The presention I consider incendiary for the following reason. Look carefully at the list of participants. Then look at the statements and predictions from the site. (You can't connect a particular statement with a particular individual, but that's not that important.) Now look at the disconnect between the private statements of the individuals and the more obviously public statements of the organizations or industries they represent.

Having said all this, it is not accidental that we are able to review these documents. They were not placed on the web by mistake. Who knows how we fit into their purposes? Are we deputies or dupes? I have no idea.

Some have postulated that as time closes in the official message will become more ominous. Maybe this presentation of the discussion of possible outcomes is part of that ratcheting-up effort. Educate slowly; avoid panic. . . . Who knows?

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 18, 1999.


The phrase somebody used in "Y2K: You make the Call" :

WEEBLES WOBBLE, BUT THEY DON'T FALL DOWN

should be THE Y2K motto from .gov and .mil. Accompanied by a firm 3-weeks preparation recommendations, there should BE no panic.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 18, 1999.


Is it just me or is the geo site updated with May material while the Navy War College site was last updated on April 16, 1999. Did I miss something here?

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), May 19, 1999.

Folks, i don't know if you have gone to the site or not, but you should. The list of participants is not so impressive for the first workshop (DEC) but the list for the last one is a group of people who are EACH and ALL a LONG DISTANCE CALL from clueless. I am MORE impressed with the results, and hope that the war College gets some responsible readers of these results!!

Chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 19, 1999.


Same message as in other thread. The pages on geocities are real. I built them there first because Naval War College so slow in setting them up for me. Later, NWC liked them and wanted duplicate set on own server. Delay in posting to NWC site is usual bureaucratic crap. Meanwhile, I post away at geocities from my own PC!

Don't be spooked by anything we post. We're what-iffing for the military and USG. We're struggling with the same issues you are. We're not out to dupe anyone. I brief the material to anyone from CIA to 8th-graders from local school.

The future is transparency, love it or leave it.

-- Thomas Barnett (barnettt@nwc.navy.mil), May 20, 1999.


And as I said in the other thread, your views on transparency are appreciated.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Mr. Barnett:

Thank you very much for the infomation. One quick question:

On this forum, we assess and re-assess perceived risks (like you do for the NWC) in order to determine what level of physical, financial and psychological preparation might be in order. It seems as though .gov and .mil preparations recommendations are ratcheting up a bit from the standard 3-day storm scenario.

From your research, what timeframe (if any) would you recommend that citizens prepare for? Are there any items in particular that are likely to be scarce due to supply-chain snaps? Do you have any advice in general on Y2K preparation?

Thanks again.

Lisa

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 20, 1999.


I may disappoint with this answer, but here it goes:

Our project solely about non-US global unfolding of Y2K, so our dark thoughts (i.e., what we get paid to do on purpose so military can pre- think possible responses and if that disturbs you, I ask would you prefer they had their thumbs up their asses when it hits?) shouldn't be taken as revealing any official thought on what's likely to happen in US.

Based on everything I've read and seen, and understanding that I get to see a lot of extra stuff given my position, I pull no punches when I say that I don't expect anything serious in this country come next January. There will be problems, but nothing that requires serious stockpiling.

I and my wife have two small kids. We always have a week's supply of food and bottled water, plus plenty of batteries and candles (we buy at Sam's Club, so go figure), so the only thing we'll change this New Year's Eve is probably having more than the usual $10 in cash in our pockets. We live on an island subject to hurricanes and big snowstorms and icestorms that time of year. In fact, we lost power last New Year's for two hours due to high winds. My colleague on the study had to use his word-burning stove for several days around the same time.

Will we take extra precautions in terms of hard copy records of finances? You bet. But finance companies will be deluging us with that stuff by year's end, so I expect no great effort there.

But overall, I don't expect any serious and lengthy problems. Y2K to me is increasingly just a test of how well firms and economies as a whole have adapted to the paradigm of the New Economy. We live in the New Economy's most advanced state--we are therefore already the best prepared.

I know some will write that all off as Polly stuff, but this is the same skeptical attitude I bring to issues of Information Warfare, where too many in military believe US "so incredibly vulnerable." Go to our December workshop stuff, where we explored what makes a country robust--it is a laundry list of what defines America. We are the most distributed everything--economy, polity, social system, network system, you name it. Where else on earth would you rather experience a natural disaster? Check out the history on that subject and I dare you not to come to the same conclusion that I always do: there is no place like home. The same will hold true on Y2K.

To me, then, real danger is how America looks after rest of world. Truly bad outcome of Y2K is rest of world angry at us for creating problem, swimming through it ourselves with ease, and somehow condemning them all to falling behind in the global economic race. In the end, then, my view is that Y2K is THE deadline for joining the globalized New Economy. Some will meet this deadline (states, firms, you name it). Others will not. But much will be learned in the process.

Continued good luck on your quest for understanding. I respect the effort immensely.

Tom Barnett

-- Thomas Barnett (barnettt@nwc.navy.mil), May 20, 1999.


Thanks again, and congratulations on your parent's 50th. God hands very few of those awards out. (Get your parents a diamond-crusted file and see if they "get it".)

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 20, 1999.

Tom,

If this is about the Non-US global unfolding of Y2K, what's the deal with the "worry" over the "AM Radio Crowd"? That's strictly a domestic issue, I'd say.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 20, 1999.


Dr. Barnett, I hope you will still be checking this thread. I am very grateful that you took the time to share your ideas with us in this forum. to my knowledge, you are the first individual involved in federal Y2K efforts to contribute here. (At least not anonymously.)

A month or so back, a link appeared here to a presentation on the US electrical grid and it's susceptibility to disruption during the millenium passage:

http://www2.army.mil/army-y2k/y2kelectric90224/sld001.htm

This presentation was evidently created by your organization in March 1999. Could you comment on the findings presented? Is the stability of the electrical supply utterly unpredictable as the presentation infers?

This was subject to lenghty discussion here, (for example at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000jn1), and any elaboration you can offer would be most welcome.

Thanks again for your insights, and your efforts on behalf of the NWC.

-- (Busy@the.top), May 20, 1999.


Busy,

Might you consider sending me an email?

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), May 20, 1999.


Conspiracy buffs won't believe the answer about the CNA stuff posted on Army site, but here goes:

I used to work at Center for Naval Analyses for eight years and then moved to Naval War College in the summer of 1998. CNA is private contractor, and not part of Department of Navy like War College.

I still work for CNA as consultant on IT, but I had nothing to do with electrical grid story and am trying to find out about that myself.

If I find out anything I will let you know, but don't hold your breath. After the Jack Anderson article than fingered me as "coaching" military for civil repression, maybe even my old colleagues at CNA won't trust me!

-- Thomas Barnett (barnettt@nwc.navy.mil), May 21, 1999.


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