Weak Link

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Why didn't any polly refute our theory today?

BTW we are not trolls, trolling or otherwise. And as for the folkes wondering what government workers are doing on this site during the day, two words: Gathering Intelligence.

Arlin, does your militia unit fall under the discpline prescribed by Congress?

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999


HEY - where have you been - most of us lurkers have been waiting all day to to hear from you again on your last post.

-- justme (finally@home.com), June 10, 1999.

We (a group of interns) has been sweeping-up DOD Y2K scenarios that were left on the floor.

As for mobilization issues. Each NG and Reserve unit has a 72hr window to fully mobilize their people. And doesn't anyone read the daily paper anymore, the list of states that will be calling out their NG at the rollover is growing eg: WV, PA, WA, MN.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Oh, gee, c4i- please tell me you're makin' a list and checkin' it twice? Please? Are you gonna come see me for Christmas? And bring your toys??

Government workers? Gathering intelligence? Sheesh.

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.


If this is the real one, or if there is a real one, please do not indulge in posting other members' private info. Have you any way to verify your prior posting?

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 10, 1999.

Sheesh---a "maintenance engineer" How was the security check?

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 10, 1999.


The Washington Post is not a good source for Y2K info, neither is CBS, NBC, FOX, ABC, MSNBC, Drudge, Gary North, Westergaard, Y2K News, Y2k Newswire, Sightings, SOFTWAR, CSIS, CFR, Ko-skin-em, WDCY2K, Cory, Milne, Yordon, Yardeni, CIA, FBI, OSD, NSA, Y2K Today, Excite, Yahoo, Lycos, or ASKJEEVES.

However, taken as a whole, and looked at daily, by trained analysts information can be gleaned and when put to use for National Security this information is what we refer to as Intelligence.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

On the one to ten scale, where does "Intelligence" put us as far as y2k is concerned?

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 10, 1999.

c4i: What was the motivation behind your original post today? fake

-- fake (fake@out.com), June 10, 1999.


Not very far. We presented the earlier scenario because we believe the government will "gut react" to the event, this will precipitate the what if's we outlined. Do we want that to happen, no. Would we like a way out of this mess, yes.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Got any ideas?

-- fake (fake@out.com), June 10, 1999.

C4i, would that be the same "national security" that presently languishes in the hands of the Clinton administration? Or is it some other 'national security' you're talking about? Is there any of it left, by any chance?

So, where might you suggest we go for some RELIABLE information (if not intelligence) on Y2K???? Oh, I forgot- if you told us you'd have to kill us.

All you OSINT folks have a good day, hear? Don't overwork your analyses.

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

We have ideas, however all of them involve leadership form the CINC. We would have a better chance as a whole of weathering this event if the plug was pulled early. The system needs to be brought down in a controlled fashion before we are forced to do it.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Something doesn't smell right here. On the other thread there were several posts apparently written by c4i, but an alert reader caught the subtle difference in the screen name. Yet all posts were analyzed and given some credibility. As an observer of human nature, I think those posts were written by different people; it wasn't a typo.

And right now, this poster has a different writing style than the original post on the Milne polly thread. If there's an explanation, I'd like to hear it.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 10, 1999.

I think c4i's non-combatative posting methodology is pretty clear he/she is either a very smart troll or a genuine "intellect". I don't know which but I do know that Intelligence is the single most important factor in the successful resolution of any military campaign. I would not doubt for a second they use these forums to generate data. Just the same way they use hotmail accounts for anonymity. And just the same way high ranking government officals use numbered swiss bank accounts the same as La Cosa Nostra do to laundry dirty money. If you think it doesn't happen, your wrong and your forgetting "there's nothing new under the sun".

I think maybe what is happening here is that the truth just isn't very nice to look at and accept. Of course we have no problem going to a two hour George Clooney movie featuring the same thing and knowing we can A.) walk out at any time or B.) stay to the happy end that is a Hollywood inevitable. Or how about the End-Of-The-World movies like Armageddon and Deep Impact. Yeah, America just loves to think about the end of life as we know it. But when the truth and bitterness is too plain to ignore, we find ways of defending our inner fears with rationales like have been so repeatedly posted in the other thread by "pollyannas".

Well for you Hollywood buffs, here is a line I remember from "Apocalypse Now"...

"Sometimes evil does win, and good does not always triumph".

Considering myself duly warned c4i, I appreciate it.

-- (workathome@atl.ga), June 10, 1999.

Congrats on a probable new response record for this place. 125+ in one day. So, since you're 'gathering' today, or this evening if you're in the U.S., what did you learn from your chuming exercise?

(you typed a hotmail return address in the cgi for posting, but it's a cgi...your domain access to the posting page was not anonymous - even using 'anonymizer' or bouncing off another domain. Of course, if your domain is keyed as unknown or masked...that would indicate that you posted with the full knowledge and consent of the network security people. Chuming.)

I know you think you're smart. But I'm pretty smart myself. The professional, old-time, nonvirtual gatherers know each other on a first name basis and have cordial lunches with their counterparts. Give me a buzz the next time you're in Tokyo. I'll introduce you some of my friends...at lunch. You have to be quick, though - the language can change instantly. Can you speak any slavic languages? Chinese? Japanese? French?

I ain't afraid of no ghost, son. And you're a ghost.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), June 10, 1999.

Perhaps it's because I have been trying to engage him/her rather than be combative?

-- fake (fake@out.com), June 10, 1999.

Dog Gone

I agree. How about this statement?

The system needs to be brought down in a controlled fashion before we are forced to do it.

c4i, Please lean towards your monitor for a retinal scan.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 10, 1999.


Nice try at getting our collective goat. EEFI -Essential Elements of Friendly Information -defined as tidbits of information that taken singularly does not reveal much, but when placed together gives a big picture.

We take unclassified information from public sources and combine it with official information, then we play the what-if game, and see what passes the so-what test. Whatever passes is placed together until a plausible theory is determined. The theories are tested for validity and the ones that pass are combined into scenarios using if-then-else or in other words cause and effect. Not all information is placed into a scenario, this is on purpose so the reader will ask questions, this provides yet another test of the scenario.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

I like milk. Got milk?

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 10, 1999.

Just my personal opinion but seem to have a ring of truth to it. I would really hate for this to be true and for everyone to look at these post and then to regret the things that have been said. As far as I am concerned...Better to be SAFE than SORRY. If this person is not a troll then I commend them for comming forward. If it isn't true then we can all have a good laugh at hope well they got us!!

-- MARYnTX1 (timmary0@airmail.net), June 10, 1999.

Oh, it has a ring of truth to it. It also has some inconsistencies which ought to be explained. If this thread was started by the original c4i poster, then I'm sure he would be willing to do that. If not, well, I'm not sure I was changing my preparation plans anyway.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 10, 1999.

Just noticed that Shumel poped back up on the csy2k Forum in this thread after being AWOL for 6 months.

He wrote an interesting article in Cory Hammasaki's WRP#100.


-- Ray (
ray@totacc.com), June 10, 1999.

poped = popped

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 10, 1999.



Many folks on the forum have wondered about the document below. Any comments?

Any Canadian reps in the audience?

Y2K Analyses for Complex Systems of Systems:
http://cr-iiacfs1.army.mil/army-y2k/y2kelectric90224/ tsld001.htm

Y2K Analyses for Complex Systems of Systems: Electric Power Systems in North America February, 1999 DRAFT

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Brian, very interesting! c4i, thoughts?

-- (workathome@atl.ga), June 10, 1999.

Come on, you guys, this is probably one or more Der Boonkahs pulling your respective legs. They're trying to sucker you in and then they'll say, "See how stupid you are? You really BELIEVED this crap! You guys will believe ANYthing! Hahahahahaha." Now because of a certain extortion attempt I have to be careful what I say, but it could, possibly, maybe, but I'm not saying it definitely is, mind you, however, it just might be Mutha--or someone very much like that.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), June 10, 1999.

Well this thread has sparked another question that Brian brought up and I'm still interested in knowing more about it.


Thouhgts anyone?

The link Brian supplied in his post is very curious indeed.

-- (workathome@atl.ga), June 10, 1999.

We have an 89.3% rate of our forecasts coming true and this is for events without a definitive date.

This seems like an awfully high percentage to me. It is hard to imagine any entity having that successful a prediction rate. The government has been caught flat-footed on some real big-picture howlers. I don't remember anyone predicting the imminent destruction of the Berlin Wall. And no one predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. These events are about as big picture as you can get, yet no one predicted them as far as I know. We got caught by surprise when Saddam invaded Kuwait. Want something more recent? The Clinton Administration thought that Milosovich would fold after a few days of bombing. Now, it is possible that c4i's group predicted a prolonged bombing campaign would be required and that nobody in the Clinton Administration paid attention to their predictions. But if their prediction rate is that good I'm surprised that no one in the government listened to them.

I am having a bit of trouble buying the 89.3% figure. But it might be possible if they had a broad definition of what a successful prediction was. For example, if I had said in 1975 that the Soviet Union would fall because its economy was inherently corrupt and inefficient, then my prediction would have proven correct. Hell, any fool could have predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union had he not attached a time frame to the prediction (say, the next five to ten years.) So it is possible that c4i's group could have an 89.3% success rate for its predictions if the predictions were broad enough and are not time-bounded. Of course, such broad predictions have relatively little value.

There is no definitive timeline other than the panic will ensue Sept-Oct timeframe.

I would love to know how they can predict a panic in October. So far we have seen no major glitches. I don't know of anyone who is predicting major problems before rollover. From my reading of things, most people seem to think that "they" will be able to hide most of the computer glitches from the public until rollover. It is hard to imagine a major panic setting in without a major glitch appearing to set off the panic. At least not in the September/October time frame. I would not expect a panic to occur before Thanksgiving unless there were some major problems before then.

Initial power outages will be 1-2 weeks in the South and Midwest. The Northeast will experience 3-4 week outages, the West and Southwest 2-3 weeks. We're not talking brownouts.

This goes well beyond what I've ever heard from any responsible individual. No one in the electric industry comes even close to this. Dick Mill's has carefully and methodically demonstrated in his columns why a 3-day outage is likely to be the worst case scenario. This even goes well beyond what Rick Cowles is predicting. The only other people I have seen who are predicting this is possible are Gary North and Paul Milne. These are not exactly what I would call serious analysts.

In order for me to believe this prediction I must be convinced that c4i has better information or better analytical capabilities than Dick Mills, Rick Cowles, and everyone in the electric utility industry. He would have to convince me that he was an expert's expert when it comes to the electric utility industry. Yet c4i states:

With regard to the power question, this is the min time. If the power can be turned-back on. You will need to have users. 2nd law of thermo "energy neither created or destroyed" If the power is running and there aren't any users, it has to go somewhere and be expended. The lines will burn.

To which Robert Cook replied:

Strongly disagree with you there on "power" - the plants create the potential (high voltage) and place that potential energy "at the fence" in their tranformer yard. Current flows on demand from the transformer yard based on the difference in voltage between the grid and the plant - which is closely regulated by the generator curve (voltage = constant, speed= drop with higher use) so that load sharing is matched.

Sorry - they don't "burn up" as demand lowers - only speed up slightly, and use less energy from the prime mover by speeding up. Get hold of a couple of Navy nukes from those available, have him sketch the load demand curves for you.

I am not an expert on the electric utilities industry so I can't comment on who is correct. From what I gather, Robert Cook does know a thing or two about the industry so I would be interested to see what c4i has to say in defense of his position on this point. I would also be interested to hear what others with some expertise in this matter have to say, particularly Rick Cowles, Dick Mills, Dan the Power Man, or someone else with expertise within the industry.


Either c4i is an expert's expert when it comes to the utility industry or he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. If we can show that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about in regards to the utility industry then everything else he says is open to question for two reasons:

1) His credibility as an expert on a very crucial issue has been called into question. Therefore, his expertise on other issues is questionable.

2) Knowing the status of the electric utility industry is absolutely essential in generating predictions of likely y2k outcomes. If the electricity is totally blacked out for two or three weeks then of course we will have a 10 scenario on our hands. But if it is only off for a day or two in scattered regions of the country we could end up with a 4 scenario or lower. The status of the utility industry is THE KEY factor that must be known in making accurate predictions. Even if c4i and members of his group are experts in support, logistics, and socioeconomic and psychological factors, if they screw up on their prediction of the electric utilities' status then the rest of their predictions will be absolutely meaningless.

So the question boils down to this: Is c4i an expert's expert on the utility industry or is he an impostor, or a fool?

* ****************************************************************** After writing the above, I notice c4i stated:

We (a group of interns) has been sweeping-up DOD Y2K scenarios that were left on the floor.

So the scenario was one of many and may not be the one they believe is likely to happen. Still, the planners of this scenario would have to believe there was some possibility of extended blackouts and I would expect them to have considerable expertise in the power industry.

I find this most interesting:

And as for the folkes wondering what government workers are doing on this site during the day, two words: Gathering Intelligence.

If c4i is legit and if he wants to avoid panic then it is surprising he would post this here. It is these types of posts that could cause a panic and a government overreaction that c4i fears.

I also wonder what he meant when he said he was "Gathering Intelligence." If c4i is legit, then his posting has probably been done with his superior's knowledge. Remember, his group specializes in socioeconomics and psychological factors. If c4i is legit then the whole point of his post may be to see how the posters in this forum react to his news. This could all be a psychological experiment. It could be a test to see how people would react to bad news. It wouldn't necessarily mean there was bad news, but it may be an experiment to determine the best way to report bad news or influence public behavior should the need arise.

Robin Messing

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 10, 1999.

If this guy is legit why does he not give more verifiable information. I assume the reason he is sharing his information is to Help Each of Us prepare for the future. If he really has our concerns at heart, he would give some one ( a regular poster) a way to Check him out.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), June 10, 1999.

So the jury is still out on the c4i Turing Machine...

c4i, how about emailing Drew Parkhill of CBN News and giving him your credentials in confidence?

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Pretty high claims being made by c4i regarding successful forecasting. In my experience, the government usually gets it *wrong* 89% of the time, all around the world. So there's a disconnect here. Does c4i really claim such success (officially) or is this just a marvelous fiction being offered up by a very talented writer? For now, I go with the latter. The whole thing, and the way it is presented, doesn't smell right. I don't think this is the way deep throat operates.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 10, 1999.

Dear Robin, Let's look at that closely. "You will need to have users. 2nd law of thermo "energy neither created or destroyed" If the power is running and there aren't any users, it has to go somewhere and be expended. The lines will burn." Sorry, Mr. Cook is right on this. The "power" isn't "running", the generators are producing an EMF, that EMF is the same whether 0 or 1,000 amps are being drawn (assuming operating within operational limits). The amount of power being drawn from a generator is dependant on the load. You have a regulated voltage, the amount of resistance (ohms) you put across that EMF determines the electron flow (amps). I'm stating this all in DC resistive terms, no need to get into phasor angles, henrys, farads, etc. If you remove the load, your electron flow (amps) goes to zero, the power (watts) also goes to zero, but the EMF (assuming good regulation) stays the same. This isn't rocket science it's just good old P=IE and E=IR where P= power (watts) I=intensity of electron flow (amps) E= Electomotive force (volts) R=resistance (ohms). Sure it gets more complex (understatement) when you add back EMF etc. but the power doesn't go anywhere if there is no place for it to go. The electricity = water analogies can only be applied so far, ie, amps = gal/min, volts= PSI, ohms = drag, henrys = inertia, and so forth.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), June 10, 1999.

Quite curious. I'm STILL "intrigued."

Love to find out who "we" is. My e-mail works c4i.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

Robin Messing, I don't know how long you've been around the y2k scenario, but anonymous postings like these cannot cause a panic. However, they can raise speculation and possible awareness. In order for a panic to occur in advance of y2k, there has to be an actual event such as a mainstream media broadcast (ie the 6 o'clock news) stating something dire OR there has to be a visible shortage of critical items to the average unaware or skeptical consumer to spark a panic.

c4i stated: "Because we the government, and in particular him the CINC, has done nothing public other than preach "the winter storm" the country cannot and will not prepare in a timely fashion. We will go 10. The CINC is in deep denial, and still believes with the VCINC that Gates will pull a rabbit out of his hat." AND "To Flint, Anita, Poole, Y2Kpro, and the like who say "hogwash, no-way, can't happen, you're nuts, etc." YOU do not have the information that we have. YOU have proven your inability to analyze. In short YOU lack what we call SA (Situational Awareness). YOU are a danger because you go beyond "questioning your beliefs." You do not acknowledge the negative information presented and act accordingly."

These statements could explain the probable cause for his posting, should he/she be legit. The C2 group (or perhaps c4i alone) disagrees with the executive branch and it's handling of this situation and wants to promulgate more action on community and individual preparation.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), June 10, 1999.

See also...

Why Paul Milne is a Polly

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000w5S

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

there is no current discipline prescribed by Congress for the unorganized militia.

PNG - I agree with your analysis in it's entirety...the question remains as to motive...


[who just got back from taking the new Mrs. Adams out to supper]

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), June 10, 1999.

You guys are missing the subtle yet obvious. Those extended statements about the power were posted by some jerk using c41 as his screen name. The original post was by c4i. You don't forget your screen name in an hour, especially when it was supposed to be some cryptic authentification of the source. Whoever c41 was, he wasn't paying attention closely enough when he posted this crap.

I admit to being fairly receptive to the original c4i post, but even it didn't quite sound right. Since c4i has never addressed the obvious discrepancy in screen names, despite being challenged, and the fact that this post was supposedly started by him to get discussion going, well, the whole thing was a troll.

A good troll with the initial post, but it just doesn't stand up to scrutiny or common sense. Now our trolls have had their fun and have left. Good riddance.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 10, 1999.

Gee, Arlin, that was a long dinner!

Are you trying to infer that you have a LIFE? (Hee. Hee.)


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 10, 1999.

Why didn't any polly refute our theory today? Does this sound like you'd expect from a DOD specialist who is whispering the inner thoughts of the Pentagon? Enough already. This thread is 100% troll. Let it die.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 10, 1999.


the comment about being interns & cleaning many senerios off the floor looked to me like it was C4i playing with the words of Arlin Adams.

As for his senerio about the National Guard call up.. Wake up people!!!! Many Governers have already stated and it is public knowledge which states have gone public.

Now for the mention of 120 major cities.. I also have read this senerio and also have heard from my military contacts that the plan is to cordon off large cities, restrict travel, gate/fence and man ramps and major roads in and out of these towns.. this is very easy to do and they (reserve and NG can and do mobalize in 72hrs. But they are already on alert and have orders to not wait to be contacted but to report when they have an inkling that they are needed. This was the result of the Comex/Mobex drill.) The gov has put in orders for a lot of fencing, gates, an set up generator centers around the country. So this is also a no brainer. Of course C4i is correct with this.

Now for power being off in areas around the country for 3 - 4 weeks. I personally have heard from Federal officials, politicians, county officials, and even reps from the power and gas companies at meetings.. this time line is VERY easy for them to admit to. The concern is many dimensional. If the power companies have a loss in their SCADA system then when they do get some juice they have no idea how to regulate it and end up frying lines.. poping transformers (this causes all new delays, not to mention the lines in your house can fry up. Have you ever looked into how many claims the power companies pay out yearly for frying household appliances (fridges compressers are a biggy and so are home computers. [while in school I temped in a power companies operations and dispatch office]) Then there is the big problem of people running generators in their homes through their panels that have not installed the proper switch to prevent juice to the lines out of the house. This can kill the linemen working on blown transformers and also cause strange read outs. Australia went public this week with the fact that they could NOT guarentee power after the change over. UK, Canada(Operation Abacus), Australia all have plans for Federal type Martial law to begin in Dec.

As for a posters name being slightly different than once before. That is because many of us never hit the button to make it permanent and to accept the cookie. We just have to quickly retype the darn thing every time.

As for some of your strange comments about why would this group want to see this present form of Gov. toppled. gee? I can think of many orgs. within the gov. or mil. that have their picture of Utopia. It is true our present system stinks. The voting is a sham, the power broker or Pres. makers play puppet master to many, the gov. and mil. operate like a poorly run 8a company full of relatives and deep interoffice politics and bedhoping. It needs good spring cleaning like when you clean out the garage. Take EVERYTHING out to the drive way and make piles and sort. Alot of stuff would not be keepers as most of it is BROKEN or SOILED.

Also the posted success rate does not suprise me either. Look at the success rate for the Sun Streak project etc.. Not bad for a bunch of spokes. Many are still doing it but in private sector. Many of the scenerios also include the effects of the solar flare cycle.

I can't see why so many of you would bother to spend the time posting responses in such a juvenile manner when you can just take the info as it suits you and be better of for it or skrewed for taking it one way or another. So many comments here look as if so many of you are lost and can't come to your own conclusions on Y2K or other matters. It is sad. Learn to go with your instints. And get out there and knock on some accessable heads in your personal circle. You can find this info out there. It is not hard to find. Just because certain sectors out their have shown themselves to be more concerned with the ill fractional lending reserve, the on life support fiat cash system, and the over inflated market instead of genuine care for humanity does not mean you should just be one of the sheep and sit there all cow eyed and not more on the obvious warning signs. There are easy things all of you can do. One step at a time. Not a large cash investment in the first steps and then going liquid or deciding that you can keep warm or eat those things and getting more supplies becomes second nature. You really lose nothing and have so much to gain, even if for now it is just piece of mind and some good nights sleep. By shoppping around now and finding bargains now you save yourself a fortune due to inflation and the projected hard economic times next year + even if Y2K gets resolved by half of 2000.

GAO insiders and reports state that the DOD is the most behind in remediation. I personally know of some areas that are just going to wait til next year to be fixed. There are too many layers of DOD and just finding and identifing mission critical has been a big problem. Let alone getting the contracts for contractors to come in and fix it. Some hired contractors did not understand the scope of y2k or fully understand how to do what they were hired for and of course wait til the monkeys are jumping all around them before they admit they don't know how to do this let alone manage the project.

So what!! your scared.. (many of us are. fear is a great motivator. Why do you think you have the ability to fear any ways?) big deal!! deal with it!! (if your aren't scared about the events this next year then you are an idiot or in great dangerous denial)and then do something about it!! It is your responsibility to take care of yourself and your families. Bottom line.. Action and preparations makes piece of mind and puts you down the road to having more time to get in control of your life and your surroundings.

Stop bashing.. who gives a darn how "silly" we might look. Reality is aften soo many times more funny or unbelievable than fiction. Just look at those Darwin awards. Many of us out here risk alot when we speak out or share what we know. But many of us feel it is or bound duty to do so.

-- Sincere (Concerned@for.all), June 10, 1999.

HEAR.....HEAR!!!!!I agree 100% sincere.....U have hit the nail on the head!

-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), June 10, 1999.


DeR BONkeR Is RIGhT!!!!!!

WHat A foOLIsh buNCh wE Are!!!!!!!!!!

IDiot jACkassES!!!!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), June 10, 1999.

I agree with Sincere. I'm not convinced that c4i is legit, but nothing that he has said thus far is incredible. I'm not a power expert, but I've seen transformers blow and equipment damaged by brownouts and spikes. In fact, the Dee Cee Y2K coordinator on 60 minutes said a two week power outage was being discussed at her level as "average" for the nation in a worst case scenario. As Sincere said, the writing is on the wall with regard to a widespread call-up of the National Guard, and martial law is openly being palnned in several countries like Canada and Australia.

Some of you that are questioning his motives may find it interesting that I am affiliated with the DoD C4I community also, but I have nothing to do with officially assessing y2k impact, other than general contingency planning and software remediation. I don't have access to any smoking guns other than the thousands of articles in the public domain that show clear evidence of a disaster in the works.

I am probably risking a reprisal from superiors for posting here, but I feel the y2k issue is too important not to share my warnings with the general public. As c4i says, Clinton sure ain't gonna do it.

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

aLsO!!!!! SIncE YoU HYenAS HAVe awAKENeD DIeteR!!!!!!!! mR C4i4!!!!!! yOU inFIDEl chILDReNS SAy yoU ARE heRE to gaTHEr intellIGencE, dO YOu noT??????? dieTeR SAys thAT YoU ARe seARcHINg In thE WRonG PLaCE!!!!!!!!!!!! IDioT BungHOLes!!!!! beGOne Now FOoLisH BUzzARdS, LeaVE diETeR SLeeP!!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), June 10, 1999.


I'd love to hear from you too. Trying to figure this one out.

You know me... just gotta research!


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

Welcome back dIETER!

How refreshing to hear from you!

(Our most treasured troll. . .)


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 10, 1999.

Absolutely!!! too bad most of the GIs are themselves in denial. I've been reading their "I'm so blind, but very intelligent" fluff for so long now, it's just become impossible for me not to attack. Like slapping the hysterically stupid and telling them to "get a grip". Big egos tend not to like that. (Decker, "There are plenty of people who think I'm really smart and love to read my phoo-phoo, and ANOTHER thing...there are NO caves in Montana that I am aware of....hahahahooo) Man, we've really got our work cut out for us.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Does anyone recall an article that quoted an official from New Zealand who stated the president of the United States intended to announce martial law in July? I never heard anything more.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Yes. It was the mayor of N.Z.'s second(?) largest city. He is also prez of a political party in N.Z., as I recall.

-- fake (fake@out.com), June 10, 1999.

More curious info from the Naval Think tank. The funny thing is that the the two links at the bottom for the most "current" summary. The summary is still the same as when we found the site originally.

I am wondering about the motives of Dr. Barnett and the military for taking the reports to the press.

And then we have our online friend c4i showing up. This is purely speculation but it is fun.

Of course Dr. Barnett has posted on this site so they are aware of us, a matter of fact I seem to remember the good Dr. was quite impressed at the speed that the group figured out the problem. It wouldn't suprise me if they did come and stir the pot up.


Outlook Newsletter

June 4, 1999
Volume 4, No. 21

Published by the Information Technology Association of America
Arlington, VA

Bob Cohen, Editor

Naval War College Sets Sights on Y2K
Drawing a box around the Year 2000 problem is a little like shoveling fleas with a fork. The problem jumps around much too much to make the effort manageable, much less productive.

But now the U.S. Naval War College has taken a stab at some big picture theorizing. The intent of this effort is to prepare the Department of Defense to deal with what it does not know about the Y2K rollover, and to respond to the new and unforeseen challenges unleashed around the world.

The Y2K International Consequence Management project is the brainchild of Vice Admiral Arthur Cebrowski, who heads the war college and saw the Year 2000 computer glitch as a natural for the kind of future gazing his organization does best. Dr. Thomas Barnett serves as project director. Barnett views the Year 2000 in nothing less than historic terms, saying that the date drama will tell anyone willing to listen important things about the global economy and the nature of crisis in highly interdependent network systems-be they technical, social, economic, or governmental.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project Summary
U.S. Naval War College
Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Decision Support Department
6/9/99 UPDATE

Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project
U.S. Naval War College
Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Decision Support Department
6/1/99 UPDATE

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 10, 1999.

We posted last November -- martial law in November 1999. But TPTB are trying to move it to December to stem the b bb bbb bbbb banking 'lines.' Ahem. They're dreaming of a normal Christmas shopping season ... LOL! Poppies, dearies, poppies, how nice, sleep sleep sleep sleep

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 10, 1999.

so, like, what gives? Diane....call that guy, HA! Perhaps he's chummy with Hillary or something?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Dang. now *I'M* Big...really, really big!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Font Fix.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 10, 1999.

Try this

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 11, 1999.


I do not have the pleasure of being on the inside. I have made extensive preparations based on my take of the situation. Much information is available yet much is not verifiable. The statements that you have just made fall into that category. It is easy to scoff at those of us who still question the degree of damage but we are looking out for our families.

Perhaps, if I were privy to the truth as you seem to be, I would not restrain myself in my responses. It has not influenced my preparation.

If you are truly "concerned", would you mind posting verification on the statements that you have made? Thank You.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 11, 1999.

Ahhhh yes, thank you brian....back to my "small" self again. (snort, snicker)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Whoever c4i is, he/she/they have lurked on this Forum long enough to know the regulars a bit and be impish about tweaking strings ...

The Military did not stamp out the mischievous trait -- have to ponder this one.

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 11, 1999.

Sincere made the point that we should trust our instincts. I couldn't agree more. We have been given enough *facts* that point to a particular direction. What are your gut feelings? Mine tend to twist a bit. It reminds me of my children asking, "where is the wind?" or "Why is water wet?". I'm not talking about faith here. I'm talking about "knowing". But, am I making any sense?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 11, 1999.

A & L

military folks got senses of humor too. Underneath all that cammo and top secret ink - a warm heart beats.

still, many of the things posted by c4i were deliberate and thought out. un emotional. Screaming to be figured out.

OTOH - maybe I need more caffers in the coffee.


-- justme (finally@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Perfect....I know the feeling!!!!

-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), June 11, 1999.

Thanks mary, hope Flints in bed....he'd fill the thread if he read THAT one! HA

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Wrong Mary will but that ok...doesn't bother me...LOL

-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), June 11, 1999.

that's it folks - hubby just pulled the plug - said enough was enough and I was to come straight to bed.

I will tune in in the AM - thanks for the ride.


-- justme (finally@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Miscellaneous thoughts, replies, reflections, and other stuff: (not attacking anyone, just giving my impressions)

workathome said, "I think c4i's non-combatative posting methodology is pretty clear he/she is either a very smart troll or a genuine "intellect". Um, smart people can be dang near insane, y'know.

Diane said, "Love to find out who 'we' is. My e-mail works c4i." I'd say "we" is the multitude of voices c4i must be hearing in his/her head. Certainly isn't royalty, as in "we are not amused" (Queen Victoria, 1900)

Sincere said, "As for a posters name being slightly different than once before. That is because many of us never hit the button to make it permanent and to accept the cookie. We just have to quickly retype the darn thing every time." I never take cookies, but haven't missed a single letter in typing my anon e-mail thingie yet. After over 100 posts using this handle. Either the c4 person is two differents, or just doesn't care about the difference...

Sincere also said, "GAO insiders and reports state that the DOD is the most behind in remediation." I would direct you to the comments made by Senator Robert Bennett in the latest Senate Y2k Committee hearings (May 25, where Sir Ed of Yourdon was seen to be speaking), where the dear Senator let it be known that GAO is THREE MONTHS BEHIND in their reports. Go to the video of the May 25 hearings, it's at about the 53 minute mark


Three months in Y2kspeak is an eternity. It's like dog years. Or more.

Another thing -- I'm sick to death of hearing all the diarrhea about the Naval War College. The Naval War College, and any similar group, makes a living at engaging in mental exercises that deal in what IF, not what IS. Ever heard of war GAMES? Not war REALS. Get over it. They deal in disaster theories, in worst-case scenarios -- on PURPOSE. Sheesh. Wake UP.

A lot of what's been happening on this thread was best described by Shakespeare: "Much ado about nothing."


-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 11, 1999.

real or fake, c4i is way off if they/she/he predicts panic in Sept/Oct

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 11, 1999.

Here's the problem I have with this guy. Early on, he says, "We have ideas, however all of them involve leadership from the CINC."

Later in the thread: "Because we the government, and in particular him the CINC, has done nothing public other than preach the 'winter storm' the country cannot and will not prepare in a timely fashion."

And: "The CINC is in deep denial, and still believes with the VCINC that Gates will pull a rabbit out of his hat."

Can't have it both ways.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), June 11, 1999.


But I'm still "curious."


(BTW, Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net) when have you EVER posted anything worth reading, uh, wasting one's time on? Just, MHO).

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

Vic: Here's the problem I have with this guy. Early on, he says, "We have ideas, however all of them involve leadership from the CINC." Later in the thread: "Because we the government, and in particular him the CINC, has done nothing public other than preach the 'winter storm' the country cannot and will not prepare in a timely fashion." And: "The CINC is in deep denial, and still believes with the VCINC that Gates will pull a rabbit out of his hat." Can't have it both ways.

Maybe you are reading something that I'm not, but I read it as his think tank and any potential high level action is being strangled by the CINC, and the CINC has his/their own agenda which does not include the right and decent alternative of steering the populace toward preparations. I don't see a contradiction here.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), June 11, 1999.

I see your point, OR, but in the absence of explanation or clarification, neither of us can be sure of the meaning. Perhaps it--like the entire post--was intended as such.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), June 11, 1999.

C4i - An authenticity test - what does TPFDD stand for? If you are who you say, you would know.

-- at work (abcdef@aol.com), June 11, 1999.

Toilet Paper: For Dashing Dingleberries?

-- Unc D (unkeed@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

at work - too easy. That acronym has been around for ages and ages - and isn't FOUO.


ps - the only validation I will consider - is if this person goes to the media with his tale. Although alot of folks hit this site - he is preaching to the choir here - if it is a valid message that needs to be shared - then this is not the best of places to put it.

-- justme (not@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Justme - You are right! An internet search on TPFDD reveals many links on war planning, including an acronym list. Oh well.

-- at work (abcdef@aol.com), June 11, 1999.

Maybe he's preaching to the choir hoping to bolster us and stimulate our courage to keep trying, reaching out to our communities to prep.

After all, some of us have given up, have battle fatigue -- remember Rob Michael's thread?

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 11, 1999.


"Drawing a box around the Year 2000 problem is a little like shoveling fleas with a fork. The problem jumps around much too much to make the effort manageable, much less productive."

That about sums Y2K up, huh?

Bet we aren't the only ones that can't get a fork handle on this!


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

"(BTW, Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net) when have you EVER posted anything worth reading, uh, wasting one's time on? Just, MHO).

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999."

Diane, I'm not a cult member, so I don't guess you'd understand. If I was, we wouldn't be having this conversation, now would we.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 11, 1999.

Diane - as far as I am concerned the jury is still out on who/what c4i is/was. Still waiting on your research - background check - etc. so PLEEEEEEEESE feed us somemore.

thanks - justme

-- justme (finally@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Let's see...since Miss Diane has seen fit to attack lil' ol' me.

She's posted to this forum 3479 times.

Runner-up is Engineer R. Cook at 2465 times.


Would any psychologist worth his salt say that this woman is obsessed?

Yeah buddy.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 11, 1999.


It's in the hands of a publisher now. If they due their diligence then we'll see something, if it's NOT who they "say" they are then so be it.

What's important... is Y2K. And being prepared.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 11, 1999.

Diane, do your diligence...see a mental health professional

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 11, 1999.

Diane - you're right of course. I am as ready as I can be considering the circumstances....(humoring husband). Still not too bad - 6-9 months worth of {most} everything. Rural home, acreage, garden, only 2-3 neighbors within rifle range. Still quietly preparing. Am keeping our preps hush hush.

Got a very bad vibe at work today. Asked the folks that are supposed to know about the impact of y2k on our systems. They don't know, they don't care - they are being told by the corporate office that everything is hunky dory - and they don't want to make waves questioning it.

fiscal year will tell the story - for us. That ought to be a big (BIG) wake up call.

I think sometimes that I would really rather be a polly so I could stick my head in the sand too. Less ulcers that way.


-- justme (finally@home.com), June 11, 1999.

Yesterday's post and thread by C4I was intriguing, but it had errors. Particularly about taking contol of missile launch control centers and nuclear codes. Nice idea, been used in a couple of cheap sci-fi books and films: capture silo, get keys, ten Minuteman missiles at your beck and call, threaten to launch unless...

However, reality comes into play with two facts. First, you have to have a specific number (I'll keep mum) of LCC's within a missile field. You see, not only do the launch keys within one LCC have to be turned near-simultaneously, "X" out of the LCC's within the Missile Squadron have to be turned within a time period to get any of the missiles to launch.

This "cross-check" function prevents one launch crew from deciding to take the world hostage on their own. To involve another LCC means a wider conspiracy and requires communications for coordination between LCC's, something that can't be done without using the official comm systems. Such a use of the communications systems is something highly unlikely to be permitted by STRATCOM (formerly SAC) HQ if one or more LCC was under "rebel control".

More likely, any rebel-held LCC's would recieve a visit from a B-2 delivering a GPS-guided "bunker-buster" bomb. My nuclear weapons training and experience teaches me that any attempt to take unauthorized control of a US nuclear weapon is suicide.

US policy is that there is no negotiation involved and that everyone involved is expendable (hostages and recovery team) in efforts to regain control of the weapon or render it unusable. And that's among the "good guy" forces, the other guys fare worse. In fact, it's said that even the President takes a back seat to a nuke.

But the clincher for exposing C4I as a clever plant was the crack about "interns sweeping up". The subject matter involved in these threads is not something that would be left on the floor, or out on someone's desk for that matter. It would at least be classified Confidential and therefore have to be locked up when the owners weren't around. And stuff being tossed would be shredded, not just placed in a trash bin.

With yesterday's inferences to high level security clearances and today's "revelation" of being "interns", there's a reality disconnect.

Conclusion: C4I is a sophisticated troll. Possibly a military member dropping in on their own to jerk peoples chains. There's another possibility; this is an on-duty visit by an "official activity" tasked with monitoring this and other Y2K sites. Only, as we've covered several times in the past, the "official lurker" can't help him/her self and has to jump in and play.

Of course, there's also the chance that Poole and the gang have mounted a really good try to spin us. Whoever it is, they've got some of the terminolgy right. "ASCAS roster" isn't heard very often in non- military use. Of course "Alpha roster" (as in alphabetic order) was replacing the term ASCAS in recent years.


-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), June 11, 1999.

See Four Eye(s)evidenced a basic lack of spelling and grammar skills, not unlike a certain pet pollywog. It was fun, though. I'm all for the occasional entertainment value of this forum, as long as it's not at the expense of more serious matters.

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), June 12, 1999.

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