I'm not so sure. I work in an IT department at a major bank. While I am not directly involved in the Y2K effort, many of my collegues are, and I have access to a rich variety of remediation and testing data. The picture I am seeing is definitely not pretty.

Our testing schedule is extremely tight. Several weeks ago the OCC mandated additional test dates that must be completed by the end of the month. The implications of not meeting these new deadlines, I do not know. I DO know however, that upper management is in a frenzy. Resources are being shuffled left and right and tension is palatable.

I regularly monitor the abend logs and they are plentiful. Resources, system space, job dependencies, data files and warping coordination, etc. all seem to be conspiring against us.

My direct supervisors have confided to me that they are stocking food. Of course all vacations have been cancelled.

Will we make it? I honestly don't know. Will we say we will? Definitely. We still are rated "satisfactory" by the OCC. Everyone is, that I know of. What scares me is that I honestly believe that we are in better shape than out competitors.

I have posted here occasionally and lurk frequently. I will provide updates as time and curcumstances permit.

-- cant say (stillstocking@everytown.usa), June 03, 1999

Answers

I work for a bank too, although a smaller one.

Ditto all of the above.

R.

-- roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), June 03, 1999.

Well, I can give you the impression of one person, Henry Kissinger. This is in regards to the UK banks, but it's not too hard to draw the parallel. This is a quote from the London (or UK) times that I've had archived. I can't provide a link. It was from March 20, 1999:

"Banking industry regulators do not go in for scare-mongering. But with a few carefully chosen words, Michael Foot has sent shock waves reverberating round the City and sent savers scurrying for safety.

The quiet, bespectacled man from the Financial Services Authority admitted that 12 large financial institutions are so far behind with their preparations to cope with the millennium bug that they could pose a serious risk to their customers and the markets. He is so worried by their potential to do damage that he is threatening to close them down.

This grim warning is the first real admission from the City of the potential horrors that lie in store when the year changes. Until now, the Bank of England has insisted that Britain's financial institutions were coping with the bug. That is what the institutions themselves maintained. Now it is clear that the truth is very different. And so intertwined are the various financial institutions that if one fails, the entire system may be put at risk. "The financial industry is like a house of cards," shuddered one insider yesterday. "If one business founders, the others feel it."

Suddenly, those individuals who have insisted that they will be withdrawing all their cash from the bank before the end of the year do not seem quite so misguided. The prospect of the millennium bug eating your savings may be more than just the nightmare of overactive imaginations. At a high-powered millennium meeting in Washington recently, delegates were stunned to hear Henry Kissinger announce that he intended to withdraw all his money from the bank as 2000 nears. Mr Foot's statement this week has fuelled fears that lesser mortals will follow the former United States Secretary of State's lead, precipitating a dangerous run on the banks.

There are fears that computer breakdown will wipe out details of people's investments, transfer sums to the wrong accounts and generally put the finances of individuals and corporations in jeopardy. The FSA is insistent that companies must have full back-up systems in case of a massive computer breakdown and it is by no means confident that all yet do.

It was inevitable that a few small businesses would fail to prepare adequately for the arrival of the new millennium. But Mr Foot was not talking about small businesses. What was so stunning about his revelations was that they related to 12 of the most important 160 businesses in the financial services sector. These, on the regulator's own definition, are "high-impact" companies, banks and insurers whose failure to be bug-proof would have serious consequences not just for customers but for the entire financial markets.

Yet we are left to guess the identity of the dirty dozen. Mr Foot dare not name and shame them for fear of legal action. His secrecy led to frantic speculation in the City as bankers tried to identify the culprits. There were equally frantic efforts to insist that they were not the guilty ones. The favourite line from many British banks was that all the 12 offenders are foreign-owned. That, says the Financial Services Authority, is certainly not the case.

At Action 2000, the Government's anti-bug unit, the director-general, Gwynneth Flower, is trying to play down fears of financial disaster. The former army major proclaimed: "If I have confidence in any sector in Britain it is the banking sector. But it would be foolish to say that everything in the garden is rosy."

She believes that the financial services industry has spent more time and effort dealing with the bug than any other industry and that Britain is ahead of any other country in seeking to cope with the problem.

Robin Guenier, the man whom the last Government first asked to help the country to cope with the bug, is less sanguine than Ms Flower. He was widely derided as the Cassandra of the millennium because of the dreadful picture he painted of national chaos. Now his predictions are coming dangerously close to being borne out. He says: "If the financial services industry is leading Britain, then that does not say much for the rest. And if Britain is leading the world, then heaven help us."

The international nature of the financial services industry does exaggerate the risks it faces for much of the rest of the world certainly has lagged behind the UK in year 2000 preparations. Abbey National, for instance, confident that its own systems are compliant, has a small operation in France which was recently checked for compliance under the French Government's criteria. It was, said the Abbey, "one of the few businesses to meet the deadline". There is widespread scepticism in the City about the ability of many European institutions to address the problem adequately.

The potential computer problems have been compounded for the financial services industry by the introduction of the euro. Many were deflected from the year 2000 issue as they struggled to prepare for the new currency. Now that they need to finish preparing for the end of the millennium, they cannot find the people to do the job.

Mike Hudgell, marketing director of Gresham Computing, which specialises in testing IT systems, says: "A lot of firms have left it too late to do their year 2000 work. They know what needs to be done but simply do not have enough time to do it and test that it will work. Almost every major IT project ends up being delivered late. This is the one that cannot be."

Robin Guenier believes that the first casualties could begin to appear very soon. As many financial companies operate an accounting year that runs from April to March, their software will soon be covering the period to March 31, 2000, triggering the bug's early appearance.

Mr Guenier does not sound like a scaremonger to Nick Bottomley, of the Swiss banking software group Fin'Objects. "I have never heard of a firm that has admitted it has a year 2000 problem yet everyone in the City has it and, up till now, they have been hiding it," he says. He argues that companies have tried to take shortcuts and the results could be disastrous. Commerzbank, one of Fin'Objects's clients, was forced to ditch virtually all its computers and start again with a new system to cope with the euro and year 2000.

Mr Bottomley fears that the 12 companies that feature on Mr Foot's list are only the most visible offenders. "The others, who have been hiding their problems, will be found out later," he says.

That is why he will be removing all the cash from his bank accounts before the century ends.

The Cost so far

Barclays .................#250 million NatWest ..................#170 million Abbey National ...........#134 million Nationwide ...............#90 million Halifax ..................#80 million Standard Life ............#80 million Bank of Scotland .........#55 million HSBC Midland .............#43 million Alliance & Leicester .....#40 million Legal & General ..........#39 million Royal Bank of Scotland ...#29 million Bradford & Bingley .......#7 million Northern Rock ............#5 million"

Got lbs?

-- ariZONEa (glad_Im_not@britain.gov), June 03, 1999.

My cousin is on the technology committee of a local bank. Says they will be done by "September". I didn't have the nerve to ask why they were missing the FDIC imposed June deadline.

-- a (a@a.a), June 03, 1999.

I wonder if Henry Kissinger is on CPR's shitlist.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), June 03, 1999.

Thanks cant say,

Appreciate the post.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 03, 1999.

Up on Breaking News:

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news102h.htm

6/3/99 -- 5:35 PM

Fed-Resignation

NAME - Alice M. Rivlin

AGE-BIRTH DATE - 68 years old. Born March 4, 1931, in Philadelphia.

EDUCATION - B.A. in economics from Bryn Mawr College in 1952; M.A. in economics, 1952, and Ph.D in economics, 1955, both from Radcliffe College.

EXPERIENCE - Director of White House's Office of Management and Budget 1994-1996; deputy director of OMB 1993-1994; professor of public policy at George Mason University, 1992; founding director of Congressional Budget Office, serving from 1975-1983; director of economic studies at Brookings Institution, 1983-1987. Department of Health Education and Welfare, in various positions in the late 1960s.

FAMILY - Husband, Sidney G. Winter, an economist. Three children and three grandchildren.

-----------------------------------------------------

More money trail crumbs ... Resignation barometers ...

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 03, 1999.

ariZONEa,

Please don't spread that Kissinger rumor.

As pointed out in previous threads (HENRY KISSINGER intends to withdraw all his money as 2000 nears at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000fBO and Henry Kissinger to withdraw his money from the bank at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000dbQ), the London Times is "now a tabloid dressed in elegant typeset; it was bought by Rupert Murdoch" (Old Git). The sentence about Kissinger gives no details about the location or context in which he made the alleged statement. It's never been verified AFAIK. No U.S. news organization has reported it -- rather strange if it were true, don't you think?

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

Here is the Reuters story that Ashton and Leska refered to above:

==================================================

WRAPUP-Rivlin quits U.S. Fed, raises rate fears By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON, June 3 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin on Thursday said she will resign, raising concerns that the loss of her voice of monetary moderation has brought the world one step closer to a rise in U.S. interest rates.

The 68-year old Rivlin, a respected economist known for her moderate anti-inflation and strong pro-growth views, said she would resign on July 16 to join a prominent Washington think-tank and spend more time with her family.

Financial markets, caught off-guard by her surprise move, reacted negatively as analysts speculated her resignation had raised the odds of a rate rise when the Fed's policy-making committee next meets on June 29 and 30.

The Fed said Rivlin would not attend that meeting. That could weaken the hand of those inside the Fed who may have counted on her support to make the case for steady interest rates despite evidence of red-hot growth in the U.S. economy.

In her resignation letter to President Bill Clinton, Rivlin said she will keep her job as head of the District of Columbia Financial Assistance Authority, which was appointed to run the capital's finances in 1995 after it nearly went bankrupt.

A Fed spokeswoman said she had nothing to add to Rivlin's statement. Rivlin herself was not available for comment. A spree of reports showing the U.S. economy is barreling ahead at full speed has prompted speculation in financial markets that borrowing costs might be raised soon. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee itself signaled last month it may move rates up in the near future to keep inflation at bay.

"It introduces a little uncertainty," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors Corp. "It takes another voice of moderation out of the central bank."

In her last public appearance, Rivlin on Tuesday echoed the Fed's warning that the robust U.S. economy might be in danger of overheating if it did not slow down. But she told a conference in Montreal that there were no clear-cut signs yet of resurging inflation pressures.

"She was one of the more liberal members of the FOMC, so if anything, her resignation pushes them closer to a tightening decision," said Chris Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi in New York.

Rivlin's decision to return to the Brookings Institution -- where she has served as the Director of Economic Studies from 1983 to 1987 -- leaves the normally seven-member Fed board with two openings. The other vacancy is the seat of former Fed governor Susan Phillips, who resigned in June of last year. The White House has yet to fill her position.

Rivlin and Phillips were the only two women on the Fed's board. The board, together with regional Fed presidents who vote on a rotating basis, is responsible for setting interest-rate policy, even though much of the real power over U.S. monetary policy lies with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

"(Rivlin) would agree that Alan Greenspan is the acknowledged leader of monetary policy. He's going to set the course," said Peter Kretzmer, economist at Bank of America Securities LLC in New York.

Greenspan praised Rivlin's contribution to the U.S. central bank and said he regretted her departure. "In the exercise of her many international responsibilities as Vice Chair, her steady common sense served us well during a particularly difficult period," he said in a statement.

President Clinton said he was sorry to hear about Rivlin's departure. "For many years, Alice has been a steady and strong voice for fiscal discipline, and she deserves much credit for helping usher in a new era of budget surpluses," he said in a separate statement.

There was no word about a potential successor.

Rivlin was director of the White House's Office of Management and Budget from 1994-1996 immediately before joining the Fed in its No. 2 position. Her term as vice chair would have run until June 24, 2000, and her term as a member of the Fed's board would have run until Jan. 31, 2010.

Rivlin commanded the respect of financial markets as well as of her peers in the power-corridors of Washington for her no-nonsense approach to economic affairs. Her down-to-earth, blunt style often contrasted with Greenspan's more oblique and guarded stance, though the two were said to have had a close, collegial working relationship.

Rivlin's departure was the second high-level resignation from Clinton's top economic team after Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin last month announced he would step down in July.

================================================

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 03, 1999.

Ashton & Leska,

Does that page at Tampa Bay Online constitute an actual announcement or confirmation of a resignation?

Is it unusual for a 68-year-old to resign from a position?

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

From Jan. 7, 1999: Chief Management Officer for DC Resigns

"We thank Dr. Barnett for beginning the management reform and regulatory reform efforts," said Alice M. Rivlin, Chair of the D.C. Financial Authority. "Her leadership during the past year has been crucial to the Financial Authority, and to the District's success thus far."

(According to the Washington Post, Cates didn't do such a spiffy job, but speak no ill and all that...)

Now here we are in June and Fed's Rivlin Resigns

[Rivlin] said leaving the Fed would give her more time to spend as head of the Financial Assistance Authority for the District of Columbia, the group that is overseeing Washingtons city government.

Despite much hand-waving and statements of wonderfulness re DeeCee's recovery and such, it would seem that Dr. Rivlin is leaving the Fed to devote her energies to getting Our Nation's Capital squared away...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 03, 1999.

Ah -- Ray posted while I was doing a Yahoo search on "Alice M. Rivlin" (which didn't turn up any recent reference).

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

* * * 19990603 Thursday

[SET CYNIC_HAT ON]

Isn't it interesting that the flocks of lackeys and slobs that will be in the trenches get the "(civvy) vacations and/or (military) leaves cancelled" orders?

How about BONA FIDE COMMITMENT from those issuing those ORDERS:

NO RETIREMENTS UNTIL AFTER _20000101_!! ( ...REGARDLESS OF AGE! )

Hmmm... Too close to leadership for the TOP?!?

How LONG and FAR will the sheep and fodder allow themselves to be lead into the setup of Y2K?... EACH OF ( Editorial ) YOU WILL MAKE THE DECISION. "Leaders" of industry or states are not leaders without their willing flocks!

The spineless masses will keep their "eyes wide shut" to Y2K, despite hard evidence under their nose! It's truly an unsavory vision for individuals with the courage and valor of convictions to observe... *sigh*...

Do not come knocking on MY DOOR as the world ( editorial ) you observe daily in your work environment comes tumbling down around your ears. (Editorial ) You are aiding and abetting in the making your own miserable Y2K bed... Sleep in it until you ( rightly ) perish there! THE GUILTY DO--AND WILL--KNOW WHO THEY ARE!!...

[SET CYNIC_HAT OFF]

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

Don't forget Rubin and I seem to recall that Greenspan is done at the end of the year. Rat's I tell Ya. The ship is sinking.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), June 03, 1999.

No_Spam et al --

I wholeheartedly apologize for the Kissinger article, if in fact it is true that it was reported by the UK equivalent of the Enquirer. It is certainly not my intention to give any credence to an unreliable source. I figured it was the same as the New York Post or LA Times (although I'm not sure what that says.) I don't think I had discovered the forum when that came out, so I had no one to bounce it off. I'll try to be more careful.

Live and learn, eh?

-- ariZONEa (embarrassed@my_error.com), June 03, 1999.

If you want to see what the bond Market thinks about Alice Rivilins resignation click on this link and scroll down to Economic Reports:

These news items do not stay around very long.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 03, 1999.

The only thing that this resignation really means is that Greenspan will stay on the job for another four years when Klintpuke reappoints him in August.

Everyone will be thrilled except for Rivlin who probably wanted to be the first female Fed Chairman (er Chairwoman I guess). None of it will matter, of course, because even Greenspan can't save this market. It's going down, and it's going down hard, along with some banks.

-- nothere nothere (nothere@nothere.com), June 04, 1999.