Subject:	Beginning of The Y2K Panic Sell-Off
Date:	1999/05/24
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

Monday May 24, 1:30 pm Eastern Time Note: this article has a followup with more information. U.S. bank stocks drop on rare "sell" rating NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. financial services stocks fell on Monday after a top Wall Street analyst made the unusual move of recommending investors sell multinational bank stocks because of year 2000 computer concerns and other issues.   Stocks in such blue-chip issues as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - news), Chase Manhattan Corp. (NYSE:CMB - news), J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc. (NYSE:JPM - news) and Bank One Corp. (NYSE:ONE - news) all tumbled when Credit Suisse First Boston banking analyst Michael Mayo warned that the millennium computer bug could cut banks' profits. Mayo also said that their revenues from capital markets are ``unsustainably high.''   The sell-off in the wake of the rare ``sell'' recommendation was not limited to the money-center banks, but spread to some larger regional banks and major brokerages, too.   In a research report, Mayo said that even if U.S. banks are fully prepared for the date roll-over -- forecast to create problems as some computer systems interpret the new year as 1900 rather than 2000 -- they are still vulnerable to ``third party risk.''   ``A Y2K problem with a bank in an emerging market country has the potential to cause glitches for banks in the United States,'' Mayo wrote. As the year progresses, the millennium issue might also delay merger savings, productivity projects and market-sensitive revenues, he said.   ``The risks of owning bank stocks do not seem worth the returns,'' Mayo wrote in a research report.   ===============   Please be kind enough to notice that this was a sell-off in regard to what is considered to be about the BEST prepared of the different industries.   The RISKS of Y2K are not WORTH the returns. How many times have I stated this over the past two years? Dozens and dozens. The compliance of ANY bank is absolutely MOOT. Its exposure to third parties is critical. They can be devastated through NO FAULT of their own.   Soon, very soon, enough people will realize this and the sell-off will be dramatic. This is just the beginning.     http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990524/13.html -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. --== Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ ==-- ---Share what you know. Learn what you don't.---

-- a (a@a.a), May 24, 1999

Answers

I will reserve judgement about whether this is a major sell-off until at least tomorrow, and probably the week-end. However, I have been pretty much out of the stock market for quite some time now. I sleep much better.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), May 24, 1999.

The market is at least 20% overvalued. The Dow could free fall 2000 points and still be overvalued. The market will correct, but it will not be a "Y2K sell off."

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 25, 1999.

If you frequent this forum and you still own any stocks or mutual funds, you must be insane.

GET OUT NOW!!!

-- Clyde (clydeblalock@hotmail.com), May 25, 1999.

HA. Glad I didn't listen to the North's, Yourdon's or 'Clyde's' of the world. I'm completely out of debt because of the "overvalued" market.

Thank you Wall Street!

-- Insanely Wealthy (stinking@filthy.rich), May 25, 1999.

You might want to look at a related item:

Gre enspan's Scam

In fact, Greenspan and the Fed are so afraid of precipitating a crash that they won't even threaten to raise interest rates without taking actions that tell the pros in the financial markets that they aren't really serious. end snip --
Mr. K

-- Mr.K (Mr.K@home.tonight), May 25, 1999.

and don't forget this one -- caution -- danger ahead--

The two largest U.S. stock markets, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, and rival electronic trading systems are racing to devise systems to tap the growing number of investors who want to trade outside the six-and-a-half-hour trading day.
FOXMARKET NEWS

Mr. K

-- Mr. K (Mr.K@home.tonight), May 25, 1999.

filthy rich,

good for you - by luck or brains you've come out ahead. well done.but this does not negate what milne and co. have been saying - can you not see that? let me put this another way... you are now ahead? - are you gonna stay in the markest over rollover???

Serious question - please answer it..

now what about the rest of the suckers who have their life savings (by way of 401k's) tied up in this house of cards.

don't be so bloody selfish. what goes around comes around. enjoy your "money" while you can, believe me, there are more important things than money filthy.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 25, 1999.

Decker,

The market is at least 20% overvalued. The Dow could free fall 2000 points and still be overvalued. The market will correct, but it will not be a "Y2K sell off."

Regards,

Are you saying 8-9,000?

A major Brokerage down grades a few major banks because of Y2k, some thing that is rare, or maybe really rare, and you say, like, no big deal man, we'll fix it in no time?

Do you realize this news is all over the net and being discused in many market forums right now?

And to think I once respected you.

Go talk to cpr

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 25, 1999.

Andy,

In fact, I am praying you and your ilk continue to spread fear and bad news. I am poised for a MAJOR buy when the market dips this fall/early winter. How much money I make will depend on the drop. Call me sleazy, but I just don't care. The stupid will always be slave to the wiser, or craftier.

Move over Billy, I might be your new neighbor!

-- Insanely Wealthy (stinking@filthy.rich), May 25, 1999.

Stupidly wealthy,

I'll just love it when you try to pick the bottom in this one, I love bottom pickers, it's what pays the rest of us.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 25, 1999.

CT,

Its "insanely". I passed "stupidly" over a year ago.

BTW, I could lose it ALL right now and still come out ahead. God I love America!

-- Insanely Wealthy (stinking@filthy.rich), May 25, 1999.

yeah America is great. and Insanely Wealthy exemplifies it's spirit.

-- humptydumpty (no.6@thevillage.com), May 25, 1999.

Hi folks: the Credit Suisse sell recommendation is a watershed event for several reasons: brokerage houses very rarely issue sell recommendations, and this to my knowledge is the FIRST y2k sell recommendation. And as an above post points out, it is for some banks that may be pretty well remediated. Over this decade I've made enough $ in the equity market to pay for a 2000 sq ft house, free and clear, but I'm now very bearish, and shorting the S&P 500. By any historical measure we are in a market mania akin to Dutch tulip bulbs. It will end very badly, bankrupting much of the middle class before rollover. And this crash could easly take 80% off the major indexes after rollover hits. Bad bad JuJu coming, beware...

-- Tennessean (holladayl@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

CT,

If I could ask you to step back a moment... how much do you think I really care whether you "respect" me? Do you think the opinion of an anonymous Internet poster who does not know me, professionally or personally, really matters a great deal to me?

The real issue--the market is badly overvalued and will correct. I'm not terribly concerned about the recommendation of one brokerage house. Right now, many equities are overpriced given the uncertain risk of Y2K AND the extraodinarily high prices of stocks. When the value of an share exceeds a reasonable calculation of present value, investors are factoring in future earnings (speculation). If Y2K contributes to a recession, earnings will drop. I think a drop of the Dow to 8,000 or 9,000 might be healthy in the longer run because it suggests a more realistic valuation of equities (rather than the current speculative bubble.)

Of course, if we correct in October to 9,000 I'll have to listen to incessant arguments that it is Y2K-related. Reuter's released a poll yesterday about Y2K and personal finances.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990524/tc/ yk_finances_1.html

Does this sound like a panicked run away from banks?

I have said from the beginning that some businesses will fail due to Y2K problems. I just disagree with the notion that the entire country will melt into a post-Apocalyptic nightmare.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 25, 1999.

First let me say that I don't own stocks...

...now, I don't expect the sell-off until much later this year. Even the horribly backward 3rd-world jungle known as Washington DeeCee won't be telling the villagers to prep until this fall (per WTOP radio this morning)

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 25, 1999.

Insanely,

You actually sound pretty poor.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), May 25, 1999.

All:

Be smart. Read "The Great Crash: 1929" by Galbraith if you are thinking of "bottom picking". "Insane", I may be using your house as my garage (as long as it has more than 1000 Sq Ft.)

br14

-- br14 (slow@decline.over.time), May 25, 1999.

All who are jealous (br14 et al)

You miss my point. I don't own a 4,500 square ft. home overlooking a beautiful lake on 17 acres because I don't know what I'm doing. It is ALL paid for! the bottom could drop out of the market _right now_ and I would barely feel a ripple.

You think you will use my "pad" as your garage? more likely I will use your skull as an ash-tray for my 'imported' Cubans.

I love CAPITOLISM!

-- Insanely Wealthy (stinking@filthy.rich), May 25, 1999.

Insanely: elitist pig. I hope the underclasses sneak up and cut your boat dock lines while you're sleeping tonight. Travis, is it?

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 25, 1999.

Milne is wrong again. And Mayo was an idiot for issuing the "sell" recommendation.

-- Milne is an idiot (market@is.up), May 25, 1999.

Well, Milne has been announcing the beginning of the end with each market dip over the last two years, but been strangely silent each time it goes back up. Perhaps if a downturn stays down for more than a week he'll declare victory.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 25, 1999.

Mayo an idiot, eh....................... Hahhm. Well! I suppose we have concrete wager material here, completely quantifiable.

Wonder if Mayo has any insight into the international portfolio/exposure of the banks he recommends ditching. Big-ass loans to Italians, French, Mid-Easterners, Africa.....

I mean, he didn't downgrade bank shares across the board, just selectively. Hell, let's just ask him! Why those and not others?

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 25, 1999.

Knew I's forgetting somethin'.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), May 25, 1999.

there WILL be a panic, i figure it will start in august. think "1987" and you'll be alright. but we are not due for a Depression until 2010. don't ask me how i know.

-- jocelyne slough (jonslough@tln.net), May 25, 1999.

Pro -

I'm a bit surprised that you didn't know that Mr. Milne was a commodities broker for many years. I suspect that he has a pretty decent command of investment terminology.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 25, 1999.

obviously a failed commodities broker

-- ... (.@...), May 25, 1999.

Hmm, 'Insanely' brings to mind the old riddle posed by Socrates:

Q: Is it better to be wise or wealthy ?

A: Wealthy, as the wise are found in the homes of the rich.

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), May 25, 1999.

to anyone who thinks Milne knows ANYTHING about trading or otherwise, check out this thread: (I don't know if I can link it or not) http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000r xH Is anyone intelligent going to argue that a bottom feeding leach like milne knows finances with an income like his? He is supported by the tax dollars of the poor and middle class. I find him disgusting.

-- Obtuse and still (in the market@this.time), May 25, 1999.

Insanely,

Hmmmm. All that money didn't help you know how to spell capitalism correctly. But who cares?

-- Duh (wellduh@already.com), May 25, 1999.

I have to give "Insanely Rich" credit for having the balls to stay in the market. We chickend out at the end of last year and are playing it a little safer.

You really have to have balls to take chances. It's really the way to get ahead in life.

Insanely, I'm happy you have that big honker of a house paid for. How ya gonna take care of it if the power goes off?

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), May 25, 1999.

I couldn't help thinking while I read this of the line: "The more stuff you have, the more you have to worry about losing."

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), May 25, 1999.

Or, Jeremiah, more poetically please:

freedom's just another word for nuthin left to lose

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), May 25, 1999.

Mac:

According to Gary Milne (Paul's brother), about 12 years ago Paul held a job for a few months as a telemarketer for a commodities brokerage. The tale has grown over the years.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 25, 1999.

Flint, are you calling him a liar when he says he was formerly a commodities broker? Be more specific.

Milne now claims to be an electrician. You, an engineer. Do you really think that a college degree makes you that superior to Paul? If so, why is it that whenever you two get in a debate, he ends up making you look like such an intellectual midget?

-- a (a@a.a), May 25, 1999.

'a':

I'm simply relating what Paul's brother Gary posted to csy2k. If you think Gary Milne is lying, I suggest you check dejanews. Paul never denied any of it, though he did resent his brother's revelations.

As for your perceptions, they are your own, and you must live with them.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 25, 1999.

Banking sell off puzzles some

http://www.cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9905/25/banking/

-- banker (cash@bank.ok), May 26, 1999.

Flint -

Thanks for the clarification. I visit c.s.y2k only infrequently and had not seen any of the "deep background" on Mr. Milne's career. So that's why there are occasional references to a "Gary Milne". I had assumed the name was just an amalgam of Gary North and Paul Milne...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 26, 1999.

Blue Himalayan:

Quoting Janis Joplan now? LOL. Dang....I still think I have that C.D. around her somewhere....well, maybe NOT...seems one of my kids stole it.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 26, 1999.

Credit where it's due. Janis made it famous, but Kris Kristofferson wrote "Me and Bobby McGee" Kinda different to think of a guy singing that, innit? Makes it more of a "down'n'out with a buddy" ballad than one about a "long-lost love"...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 26, 1999.

Thanks, Mac. I was an avid fan of Janis many, many years ago and introduced the "Pearl" C.D. to my kids. I consider it one of those mistakes we make as parents, such as teaching our kids to play chess...just to have them beat us after 6 months. EVERY morning for what seemed like an eternity I would wake up to "Me and Bobby McGee." with the three kids dancing around the house while they got ready for school. LOL. I guess they COULD have been making bombs or something, eh?

Not TOO off topic! Oh well.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 26, 1999.

Mac and Flint: Gary Milne is apparently a moron and a jerk. If you check back through the c.s.y2k archive, you will see that he has been caught lying about his brother Paul on several occasions, and was kicked of the net by his ISP for threatening someone.

What all this has to due with the FACTS that Paul Milne posts, I have no idea.

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

Milne detractors: Here is a typical post by Milne today. Please explain how Milne is lying and distorting this story (I assume you do not doubt the authenticity of the news article). Can you do so?

Subject:	Dallas: "Someone Lied To Us". Gee, Do Ya Think? LOL LOL
Date:	1999/05/26
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

Council members worry services won't be Y2K-ready by Jan. 1 after hearing report Staff say it's behind, won't finish some projects until November or December   05/25/99   By Nora Lopez / The Dallas Morning News   Several Dallas City Council members are concerned that some city services may not be Y2K ready when the new year starts.   All city operations were supposed to be Y2K compliant by the end of July, giving staff members a five-month cushion to work out any glitches.   But on Monday, members of the council's Finance and Audit Committee were told that some systems probably won't be ready until November or December.   "Somebody lied to us," said council member Alan Walne, who appeared visibly upset. "What are we supposed to do if in December those systems aren't ready?"   "This is so critical," said Mayor Pro Tem Mary Poss, chairwoman of the city's Finance and Audit Committee. "The water system, traffic lights, all of those things are controlled by computers. And it concerns me that this is the first time we're being told that we're experiencing some delays."     ==========   Of course the Y2k manager made all of the obligatory comments about getting the job done on time, that delays are standard and that they 'expect' to be finished on time.   BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!   In a Pig's eye!   Yes, they have been decieved. What is funny is that they are SO stupid as to be only figuring that out NOW.   This is the beginning of the coming 'collective dope slap' that I have been talking about.   BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!   What a bunch of maroons!   BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!   Wip ing the tears from his eyes, "Won't be long now."   http ://www.dallasnews.com/metro/0525met60cityy2k.htm -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. --== Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ ==-- ---Share what you know. Learn what you don't.---

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

a, your wasting your PRECIOUS time with Flint. He is an EXPERT TROLL. Keep posting Paul's thoughts along with your own. The newbies will be able to figure it out after reading a few of Flint's yada ..yada .. yada .. posts.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 26, 1999.

Ray, I beg to differ.

Flint provides a different side than Milne or A, but to consider him a troll is unconscionable. Is your mind so made up that you choose not to see anything other than your preconceived notions?

Personally, I wish A would post his OWN things. Paul visits this forum himself. If he wants his c.s.y2k threads posted, he can very well do it himself.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 26, 1999.

Anita, where is the info on El Paso Electric you said you would get me?

IMHO Flint is an EXPERT TROLL. He can take up more bandwidth and say less than anyone I know, period.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 26, 1999.

Ray:

I've queried my network of contractors and no one had worked at El Paso Electric. Thanks for reminding me, though, as I'd forgotten who asked for it.

I STILL don't agree with you on Flint. I see a LOT of logic in what he posts. Whether you agree with his opinions or not, this DOES NOT make him a troll. A troll is someone who posts like someone recently did with the 2-3 pages of drivel on every other thread. Flint is much like myself. We don't see Y2k being the end of the world, yet don't discourage preparedness. If you can deal with ME, why can't you deal with Flint?

I think you're closing your eyes to some possibly good information by dismissing Flint, Ray. I guess it's what you choose to do, however, and won't comment further on it.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 26, 1999.

Mac and Anita:

If you listen carefully, you'll find that Joplin did a sex change operation on Kristofferson's song, changing all the her's to him's and all the she's to he's. Kristofferson was really singing about a lost love. In the original, Bobby McGee was clearly female.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 26, 1999.

Flint -

[Reads through the lyrics] Gad, you're right. "Bobby" flags the diesel down, "she" claps along with the songs, "she" sings the blues. Janis just flipflopped the roles. Thanks. Heard a fascinating interview on NPR recently with Alice Echols, who wrote Scars of Sweet Paradise : The Life and Times of Janis Joplin. So sad...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 26, 1999.