Nobody here is facing up to the fact that y2k will set us back about 100 years. Well what does this mean to us? It means that there will be massive famine here in the US(no transportation of food or even large corporate growing of food for that matter) combined with widespread diesease like cholera, hepititis, typhus, and typhoid due to the breakdown of sanitation and public health(no toilets, showers,or hospitals). With water being shut off many people will die of thirst. Looting and rioting will break out, turning cities into war zones. Firestroms will rage out of control as the fire department will not have water to combat these blazes(remember L.A.?) Face reality here people. Nobody on this forum is wanting to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together. Well here it is: THERE WILL (UNFOURTANTLY) BE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF OUR FELLOW AMERICANS WHO WILL PERISH IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS. POSSIBLY EVEN UPWARDS OF 25% OF OUR POPULATION, OR 50 MILLION. Barring a massive effort from our government urging perosnal preperation(unlikely), it is too late to prevent this from happeing. The only question is how many of us will die, what will life be like during and after the chaos, and are we prepared to emotionally deal with the fact that there will be millions dead? Does anyone have any feelings on this one way or another?........sorry about the caps lock:)

-- Emotional (feelingdepressed@aboutitall.com), February 14, 1999

Answers

Emotional,

I think there are many of us on this forum who believe that what you describe is possible, or even probable. There is, in fact a lot of discussion about this. However, there are also people here who either do not believe it, haven't gotten that far in their conclusions, or simply can't fathom that set of possibilities.

Also, many of us have been dealing with this for a relatively long time now, (a year or so?) and have gotten past the big picture and are now focussing on details in order to track the situation in an effort to keep a clear picture of what's going on in the world.

For the record - I think probably 50-75 million deaths in this country is about right, a billion or more globally. It may sound insensitive for me to state that so smugly, but when I first came around here a year ago, I sounded more like you. My incredulity has worn off. Now I'm operating on nervous energy...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 14, 1999.

Emotional,

If you read through past threads, you'll find that many posters here expect extreme consequences.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), February 14, 1999.

I tend to agree with your bleak picture. The muck-mucks in D.C. have their underground hiddy holes to go to all stocked with food, water, power and entertainment yet they accuse us of having a bunker mentality! You have got to take of you and your own. You can't save the world. If by luck you have ample resources you may want to put some away to help others.

We are more prepared to cope than our own small local police force guns aside. That says a lot about awareness by local governments. I work with the mayor in the private sector and this person knows my opinion on Y2K. Its the happy face role they feel they must play.

-- Ed Stevens (ed@terraworld.net), February 14, 1999.

Hi Emotional,

I, for one, can say that I consider your scenario to be highly likely. Two months ago when I saw this I began to go through the many stages of grief that others, such as yourself, are going through. Much has been written out there and forums exist that deal mainly with this part of the y2k problem and offer much support.

I would like to say that I have been in and out of depression, sadness, denial, anger, and acceptance. It goes in cycles for me. But you will not stay in one place if you seek out support and begin to make a plan for survival, or face the possibility of your death and decide to accept it, as some are doing.

Perhaps you have not given yourself a chance to read the messages that are saved in the categories listed at the bottom. You will find there are quite a few here that have reached this conclusion as well and have expressed very similar feelings as yours. A recent poll taken here rated y2k mainly between an 8 and 10, 10 being the worst, and many had to add numbers beyond 10 to express their feelings about y2k. Others on this forum describe themselves as optimists or divide the numbers into percentages, such as a 20% chance of a 10.

In order to assist you, as many are on this forum to do, I will look up the urls for the sites such as the forum for emotional y2k support and the poll, and some posts that might be of assistance to you.

Do you have any friends or family that has become aware of y2k and feels the way you do about it? If not, like myself, forums are an indispensable source of support. Have you tried any others yet? How long ago did you become aware of y2k and come to be what we all call a "GI" (get it)? Do you have family members that you are responsible for? We are here to compare notes and share our opinions and feelings about this experience we are in together.

Good luck. Check later for the urls.

-- Lora Ereshan (artemis45@hotmail.com), February 14, 1999.

I expect extreme consequenses because I've alread suffered such for many years because of other peoples' greed, evilness, stupidity and denial!

Not Agaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiiiinnn! hatchou@yahoo.com

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), February 14, 1999.

Dear Emotional,

Although most postings on this forum read as though they were written calmly, I can assure you that many of us are dealing with chronic anxiety. You can only stay in the outright panic phase for so long, which is one reason I wish our political leadership would administer a bigger dose of reality in time to allow more people to work through it. I am hopeful that some divinely inspired ingenuity and cooperation will help to limit the death toll, but only a fool would dismiss your beliefs as impossible.

-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), February 14, 1999.

There are also many others here in this forum that firmly believe the scenario you talk about is extremely unlikey. 50 million dead! You probably don't realize how wacky you sound!

There's no point carrying on any further because I have found that once people decide that all is lost, for whatever strange emotional needs are going on in their heads, it's virtually impossible to even reason with them.

Even if things did get as bad as the great depression, even then unemployment was only about 20 - 25% and millions weren't dying because of it.

Look, it's likely going to have very serious consequences. But I don't think you are doing any one any favors, especially your own emotional well being, by going off on such a wild tangent.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), February 14, 1999.

One of the "facts" about Y2K today, and in the recent past, and probably for a considerable part of the future, is that nobody knows what all of the pertinent facts are, right now!

We have some information about some of the facts of the recent past, but for any observer, the number of unknown "facts" vastly exceeds number of known "facts". We may guess or speculate about what we do not know, and we may form opinions, and we may feel strongly about our opinions.

We may go on to speculate about the future implications of our current opinions/interpretations about the present, and thereby form opinions about what may occur in the future.

When that future arrives, some opinions about it will turn out to have been incorrect, and some will turn out to have been correct. But not until that future arrives can we accurately characterize the content of opinions about it as "facts", even those opinions that turn out to have been correct.

In any case, it should not surprise anybody that different people may have very different opinions about the future. It may also be clear, at least to some, that characterizing opinions about future events as "true facts" does not alter the "fact" that they are opinions.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), February 14, 1999.

Dear Emotional,

There are many people out there that feel we the GIs are stupid, crazy, cultists or, you get my drift. The problem is most of us are either experienced programmers, know someone that is or are people that are smart enough to listen to the facts available and understand that there is a degree of danger. Most would admit that there is no such thing as a y2k expert only because y2k is something this world has never experienced before. There are however people that are experts at complex systems. Some of these experts can be found at www.russkelly.com the experts page.

Many of the experts of systems tell us that the world is in big trouble and I would say that because of the research that myself and others have done, a very large and looming problem exists. The only way to minimize the way this problem will effect you is to prepare for it. Preparation is the cure for panic at least in my case. For those who plan to stay in the cities you will find that no man is an island and you will need help. If you fail to plan you plan to fail I know you've heard it before however for y2k it couldn't be truer. Have I lost many hours of sleep over this problem? Have I stayed on the internet for hours at a time trying to find the truth? Have I emailed many fellow geeks for information? Do I work with many of the CEOs of American companies and are most of those CEOs clueless? YES, YES, YES and YES. At my work I deal with many of the CEOs of the fortune 500, GE, Owens Corning, Mars, Coors, Micro-Soft yes old Bill helped him at Comdex last fall in Vegas. Do what you feel you must do and don't look back. Take care and stay tuned in, the show is about to start! And remember we are here for you your forum friends. Tman

-- Tman (Tman@IBAgeek.com), February 14, 1999.

Emotional,

Personally I have to disagree with your assessment of the times we are living in. Its going to be a very tuff time in the next ten years in my opinion but I don't feel millions will die unless these are truly the end times prophesisied in the Bible. This world has been through rough times many times in the past. You need only to look at history to find out how things might be. It runs in cycles. For instance..the panic of 1837 brought on the "Hungry 40's" There was a brief cotton boom in 1839 but the depression officially ended in 44.

Then you go to the next period from 1891-1899. Real estate collapsed in 1890. Then we had the "Panic of 93" Then a slight recovery in 1894-95 Then again the "Panic of 96" confirmed world depression.

The real estate market once again collapses in 1925 and shares of stock drop 85% in value in 1929. There was modest recoveries and then the 1932 worlwide depression occurs and did not end until after WW II.

Now were in the next cycle that began in 1991 and will end in 2003. After the property market collapses, the early 90's recession sets in. Banks fail. Bankruptcy and unemployment are widespread. In 93/94 the markets approach there record 87 peaks. GDP growth occurs. Trade wars threaten. Major wars loom over territorial and distributional problems. The second richest man in the world, Warren Buffett purchases 129.7 million ounces of silver.(had to sneak that in) Japan goes into depression in 95 bringing down the Asian Rim with her. Brazil and others start to collapse causing the fed to maintain lower interest rates to prop up the world economy. Americans spend themselves into a negative savings rate for the first time since the last depression because of easy credit. (125% home loans).Y2K threatens infrastructure and distribution. Stock markets collapse ushering in the "Panic of 99." Silver skyrockets from $70.00 to $110.00 per ounce. Gold exploads after goverments can no longer control the markets. etc.etc.etc.

As you may see our world economys run in 50 year cycles. You have a growth boom of 20 to 30 years usually because of some new growth of the spirit and mind and engenuity. For instance 1788-1818 brought in the era of industrialization which created higher wages. From 1844-72 railroads were established as well as the steamship and automobiles. 1899-1916 you have the development of electricity. 1949-72 electronics.

There is always a recessionary period after a growth period that usually lasts 3 to 7 years. Then you have a false boom period that lasts about 10 years. Maybe our goverments will learn from this one and realize the crucial roll that taxes play in these cycles. During boom times they tax the incintive out of us and goverment grows out of control until theres a collapse. And were there now "Emotional" But, we will get through this one also if its GODS Will, just as our ancestors have the other periods.

This is a once in a lifetime event. I'm excited and happy to be living in this time period. Take the bull by the horns and make lemonade with the lemons. Make a killing in the silver and gold explosion that is about to take place. Short the stock market. And most important, Let GODS WILL Be Done In Your Life Forever. If you do that one thing only, the rest will take care of itself. I am living proof.

Mike

-- flierdude (mkessler0101@sprynet.com), February 14, 1999.

For Emotional Rescue:

Now that you know, prepare calmly day by day. No mass panic has yet happened. During this window of opportunity before the coming fierce storm of Depression, think seriously about contingency options for yourself, family, friends and neighbors. Detailed plans acted upon rationally are superior to frantic impulse buying. If you get emotionally stabilized now, then you can help others when they freak out during the mass panic. However, I think many will go off the deep end. :(

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), February 14, 1999.

Welcome Emotional One, to the emotional GI world. Now go back and read the old threads in the archives.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 14, 1999.

This is a once in a lifetime event. I'm excited and happy to be living in this time period. Take the bull by the horns and make lemonade with the lemons. Make a killing in the silver and gold explosion that is about to take place. Short the stock market.

My feelings exactly. We're living in the most exciting period of history since the Fall of the Republic. May as well enjoy it, and take advantage of our chance to get into the history books! ;)

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), February 14, 1999.

I just wonder how many of those who read this post will be depressed when Y2K does not cause the immense problems they envision. The govt. won't fall, the power won't be off and deliveries will be made. Trouble we will have, but not at TEOTWAWKI level. I expect to hear of many suicides - please don't let it be you.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 14, 1999.

Emotional,

Get centered and get prepared for uncertainty ... it's just plain old everyday life advice. Help those around you. Remember to plant flowers in with vegetables.

The sun rises, and sets, daily.

Breathe deeply. Calm yourself.

Study, and do your Y2K homework. Take time out breaks.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), February 14, 1999.

Are we all nuts ! I sure hope so. I am afraid that we are not. All I want to say is "This is one heck of a way to run a planet" How much help is that ? NONE. So, what do we do ? We buy food, we arange for water, we protect our family, and we provide some cover for those who come our way. Is this the right course of action ? Heck, I don't know. If you do know the exact things we should be doing, please LET ME KNOW ! For those who are awareness challenged, BUY BEANS & RICE NOW !

-- reed_moore (reed_moore@ postmaster.co.uk), February 14, 1999.

Mike and Leo,

Shorting the stock market may be a good idea, IF you get the timing right, but while silver and gold prices often rise during inflations, they may drop during a depression in and age when people are not accustomed to using silver and/or gold as currency. Keep in mind that existing silver and gold coin prices today include a premium as collectors' items. But, if you use them as currency, that premium would be discounted, to say the least.

Take care,

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), February 14, 1999.

Paul Davis said, "I just wonder how many of those who read this post will be depressed when Y2K does not cause the immense problems they envision."

Paul, you are amazing! If nothing much happens in 2000, I'll need to purchase very little food and no toiletries or clothing for the whole year. (Call it the equivalent of a savings account.) With the cash I have set aside each week, my husband and I have already decided to take the 14 day Alaskan cruise we've always wanted to take. Yeah, that will just break my heart. I'll be SO depressed! Either way, Paul, I can't lose. What about you?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), February 14, 1999.

Paul won't need to comit suicide Gayla, he's a "chosen one"...for culling };-)

Alright, I'm flaming too much...Paul makes it so tempting though.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 14, 1999.

Surely none of us should let our worst fears and emotions to get the best of us. It does no good to worry unneccessarily about tomorrow. We could go to sleep tonight and not wake up. "Sufficient for each day is its own badness." The best way to deal with this situation is on a day to day basis. You can not be 100 percent sure of what might happen. You can imagine the worst rather easily. I think we need to do that. But conversely, why not imagine scenarios that aren't so bad? After all, they are a real possibility. I have tried to remain emotionally detached, so that I can take in as much information as I can. And much of what I have read is intriguing. much is worrisome. but even the proudest of all of you ought to be honest enough to admit that you can't be sure what might happen. I for one will prepare when I read something concrete enough to convince me I ought to. this forum is interesting...but more facts ought to be talked about...not fears...

-- rick shade (Rickoshade@aol.com), February 15, 1999.

Emotional is right!

What the pollyanas dont't get is that we are now almost completely dependent on computers for just about everything. Duh!

The last big event was the 1930s depression. NO COMPUTERS. The infrastructure still worked. Transportation, utilities, communications were still mostly manually controlled. Look for railroad threads, for example. Phone companies had operators to give you information (directory assistance) and place long distance calls. A much greater percentage of people than now were still on the farm rather than mega-farm corporations.

Millions will die here in the good old "can't happen here" U.S.A. due to riots, fires, exposure (heat and cold without air conditioning and heat), and pesitilance.

Billions will die in the "third world" for the same reasons PLUS the food shipments that allow them to live long enough to breed more starving people will stop.

I could go on, but it's beating a dead horse to even write this much.

-- A (A@AisA.com), February 15, 1999.

Sheeze! What makes you _optimists_ think we will only drop back one hundred years of technology? Just think; what TRADES and SKILLS existed 100 years ago? Blacksmiths, Wheelwrights, Cutlers (knife and sword makers), Pharmacists who mixed their own medicines, Signwriters, Fitters and Turners, Carpenters who could make their own non-power tools, Watchmakers ... Few of these skills exist today. We can expect it to be much worse than a time-warp of 100 years. It could be a new DARK AGE, boys and girls. Let's hope I am just paranoid, eh?

-- David Harvey (vk2dmh@hotmail.com), February 15, 1999.

Friends, I expect a worldwide depression. But I'm not a prophet. Even Milne always acknowledges that "nothing" could happen, but that PREPARING FOR THE WORST is the ONLY wise thing to do given what we know about Y2K.

Don't fill your mind with fantasies, or, if you do, make sure the fantasy includes the resourcefulness and creativity of people.

Gayla has it exactly right. If Y2K is a 1 or a 3 or even a 5, I'll jump up and down for joy AND spend the next year or two afterwards kicking back after all the hard prep work and enjoying the fruits of it. It will be a vacation time for us, psychologically.

Davis seems to think that GIs want bad things to happen and are going to be somehow disappointed if they don't. Total nonsense.

Grab it all by the right end of the stick ...

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 15, 1999.

Dumb newbie question of the day. Can anyone provide credible links to educate myself on "how to invest killing in gold and silver?" Thanks. Dope slapping myself.

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), February 15, 1999.

Emotional,

I can relate to what you are saying. I often feel very depressed about the potential for death and destruction. I also get angry when I don't see our government and media taking opportunities to prepare people. However, I do what I can for my family and myself. I have to let the anger go. One good definition of depression is "anger turned inward." I don't feel powerless as long as I am making progress toward personal preparations. A friend and I are mailing Y2K letters to all the pastors of local churches urging them to get their congregations to prepare. I also want to send it to the local newspapers. I don't know if it will help but it addresses the need to do something positive. Regardless, keep focused on your immediate family and do what you can for others as the opportunities arise. Also, please take your Y2K glasses off from time to time to avoid burnout! Good luck!

-- Sharon in Texas (sking@drought-ridden.com), February 15, 1999.

Emotional - Have confidence in your own view and y2k interpretation, then prepare accordingly - if it is for an 1850's life, so be it. Hint: once you begin to prepare most of the heavy panic will subside.

btw, you are quite Pollyanna in your death forecast! ;-)

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), February 15, 1999.

I can't imagine anyone not being overjoyed if Y2K turns out to be just a bump in the road, no matter how much they think it will be a disaster. On the other hand, if it does turn out to be a disaster and you are not prepared....

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 15, 1999.

If Y2k is a bump in the road, I'm gonna throw an "oops...I was wrong" party which will be thrown outside. There'll be lotsa good food, and a couple of GI friends will pitch in for the kegs ;-) But, if the worst-case scenarios fall into play...
I won't inadvertantly become a member of CLUB DEAD. I won't be able to control my destiny 100%, but, based on my assessments, will have a better chance of controlling it than being caught short-handed and having some alphabet agency dictating their terms to me in order to receive heat, food, and shelter.

Also, I've put alot of things in my life "on hold", such as replacing my car (200,000 + miles, but still reliable), investing, etc. ...very frustrating. I would like nothing more than a "bump in the road", so I can continue on with my life, but my interpretation of what's been presented so far does not lead me to draw this conclusion. Believe me, I'm looking for positive information as much as the next person...but there's so much ambiguity when it comes to finding the answers that I get an uneasy feeling that we are not being told the whole story here.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), February 15, 1999.

Tim, my feeling more & more matches your feeling. Dread. We're being kept in the dark. Nefarious indeed. Read this for confirmation:

Military Test Exercises

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), February 15, 1999.

Emotional,

These things happen from time to time. Just focus on what you can do to limit the impact to yourself. Are you "emotional" about the Fall of Rome? The Holocaust? The firebombing of Dresden? Hiroshima? Probably not. Think of Y2k as history; it's just history that you're living through. There is still time to move to a safe place and stock up on food, water, tools, seeds, means of defense (shotgun and lots of shells). Do what little you can as an individual to help a few people around you; but don't carry the world on your shoulders. Just take care of yourself. There's a lot of work to do, to keep busy and keep your mind off the big stuff. Good luck.

E.

-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 15, 1999.

"...but there's so much ambiguity when it comes to finding the answers that I get an uneasy feeling that we are not being told the whole story here."

I agree. So, if the news was mostly good, would the attornies let the information "be"out there, or what?

-- Faze the Nation (dazed@confused.com), February 16, 1999.