Podhoretz: 2003, Things to Come

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December 31, 2002 -- AS another fearful year comes to a close, here are my fearless predictions for 2003:

* The crime rate in New York City will begin to rise again. We're all going to get very worried, but the rising crime rate won't be the result of civic breakdown or police failure. It's simply a matter of logic.

Crime rose in the United States in 2002 largely due to the fact that it had reached historic lows - and under those circumstances, it proved impossible for the overall crime rate to continue to decline. The decline in crime in New York City in 2002 ran counter to the national trend, probably because the city remained in a post-9/11 mood throughout the year both shell-shocked and defiantly proud.

* The U.N. Security Council will, in effect, authorize a U.S. war in Iraq. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad el-Baradeh, signaled as much last week when he said it appeared Iraq was going to fail to meet the terms of Resolution 1441.

In the end, President Bush's supposedly insane go-it-alone unilateralism will have single-handedly created the circumstances to unify the civilized world against the destabilizing regime in Baghdad.

* Presidential contender John F. Kerry will become the new Al Gore. With the original Al Gore out of the race, American politics will need a yin to George W. Bush's yang - a polar opposite for a polarized electorate. The junior senator from Massachusetts is wooden, humorless, self-aggrandizing and fancies himself an intellectual. Sound familiar?

Kerry will put off reporters who follow him around. Friends will protest that in private he's incredibly charming. But nobody will believe those friends. He will be ripe for spoof and satire, and the parodies of him will quickly become better-known than Kerry himself.

-- Anonymous, December 31, 2002

Answers

* The corporate-scandal machine will suffer a major setback. In at least one of the early trials this year involving the spate of corporate scandals, the defendant will be exonerated. The event will remind those with a memory of the overreaching in the 1980s by then-U.S. Attorney Rudy Giuliani, who used questionable tactics to pursue Wall Street executives.

But though some might be troubled, one person will not be. That person is Paul Krugman of The New York Times. And he will have no cause to be concerned, owing to my next prediction:

* Paul Krugman will win a Pulitzer Prize. The recent spate of insane stories about how the media are now biased toward conservatives will give the Pulitzer committee breathing room to anoint the oft-unhinged voice of all things anti-Bush as the nation's newest conscience.

* A happier award prediction: "Chicago" will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It will be far more appealing to older Academy voters than "The Two Towers." It will be thought of more fondly by Academy voters than "The Hours," which is all about suicide. And though "The Pianist" may seem formidable given its Holocaust theme, the fact that its director Roman Polanski can't campaign for it - since the convicted teen molester would be arrested if he tried to set foot on U.S. soil - will be held against it.

This is a happy prediction because "Chicago" is not only the best film of the year, but the best American film in a great many years. (Oh, and Catherine Zeta-Jones is a lock for Best Supporting Actress for her amazing performance.)

* Finally: Some of these predictions will be wrong. But I'm not saying which ones.

-- Anonymous, December 31, 2002


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