November 14, 2002

America fears that Saddam may go for 'cheat and retreat' By Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor

SADDAM HUSSEIN cleared the first hurdle yesterday in his attempt to delay the threat of war, when he accepted unconditionally the return of United Nations weapons inspectors to Iraq.

But his nine-page letter of submission failed to offer any clues about the Iraqi leader’s real intentions.

Over the coming weeks the world will judge whether he is complying with the terms of the UN resolution. If not, a US-led war to overthrow him is all but inevitable.

Despite the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the new UN conditions for inspection on Tuesday, Baghdad’s acceptance was never really in doubt.

Weeks ago the Iraqi leader calculated that his best defence lay in delaying for as long as possible any international military moves. That tactic worked well for most of the autumn until, under strong US and British pressure, opposition finally crumbled and the UN Security Council voted unanimously in favour of Resolution 1441.

The real test of Saddam’s intentions will be clear by December 8, when he is obliged to make a full declaration of any weaponry in his country. Iraq has denied American and British accusations that it is concealing tonnes of biological and chemical agents, about 20 Scud missiles and a nuclear weapons programme.

If he chooses to divulge his suspected armoury and open up his country to inspection, he could avoid attack and one day even see sanctions against his country lifted.

His past suggests that he will stick to tactics that have helped him to stay in power. When it comes to his dealings with the UN, President Bush neatly summed up his manoeuvres as “cheat and retreat”.

Past inspectors point out that Iraq has developed a fine art in concealment. Iraqi officials may be publicly co-operative, but searching the vast country for chemical compounds and weapons components will be difficult for the UN inspectors, many of them entering Iraq for the first time.

Nevertheless, the inspectors, whose advance team begins arriving on Monday, say that they will be able to undertake a serious search of Iraq and find weapons of mass destruction if they are hidden.

They will be equipped with advanced sensors capable of sniffing out suspect chemicals and germs, supported by surveillance aircraft and a mandate that gives them access to every building and scientist in Iraq. They will also be aided by Western Intelligence and possibly Iraqi defectors.

The inspectors are due to begin work in earnest by December 23 and report to the Security Council by February 21. If they are obstructed, or if they uncover weapons of mass destruction, Iraq will be in “material breach” of its obligations. It will be open to severe consequences” in the form of a US-led invasion force already assembling in the region.

The Pentagon has hinted that it favours an offensive between December and February, when troops wearing protective suits against nuclear, biological and chemical weapons can operate more easily.

The Iraqis must have calculated that if they can delay the United Nations’ work and fudge the result, America’s invasion plans may be put off. Saddam will have won another year to prepare his next escape routine.

-- Anonymous, November 14, 2002

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Response to The real test of SaddamÂ’s intentions will be clear by December 8, when he is obliged to make a full declaration of any weaponry in his country

SADDAM BUYS ANOTHER DAY

November 14, 2002 --

Saddam Hussein's decision yesterday to accept the U.N. Security Council's latest disarmament resolution was not necessarily the good news some may think it is.

Yes, it avoids war tomorrow.

But it may also boost the dangers for the future.

For one thing, as the White House was quick to point out, the resolution was not Saddam's to accept or reject. As a member of the United Nations, Iraq was automatically bound by all of the resolution's provisions, unconditionally.

And this wasn't the first time the United Nations passed a get-tough bill demanding Saddam surrender his weapons of mass destruction.

In fact, it's the 17th such resolution since 1991, and Iraq still has not disarmed - thanks to a shameful lack of resolve by both Washington and Turtle Bay when it came to enforcing those resolutions.

But most worrisome is that, by accepting the terms of the latest resolution, Saddam buys himself yet more time - which clearly is his most precious asset.

Time has allowed him to mislead weapons inspectors in the past, and it's what, no doubt, he's counting on to let him mislead them yet again.

Indeed, he's had four full years since he last expelled inspectors from Iraq to hide as many of his stockpiles as possible. Finding those hidden weapons may take years. And in that time, who knows what dangerous programs of his will come to fruition?

President Bush has vowed that this time things will be different. The White House has stressed that even the slightest non-cooperation by Saddam will be considered a material breach of the resolution. And that, in Washington's view, would be enough to justify the use of military force.

Certainly, no one wants war.

But it is inconceivable that Saddam can comply fully with the West's demands - that is, that he can change his spots - and still remain in power.

Saddam is a bully. He survives through intimidation, torture, murder.

His terror weapons and military provide him the means by which to enforce his authority over the Iraqi people.

Should he suddenly, magically, become a democrat - or even a beneficent despot - he's through.

No, his only hope is to play for time - to wait until, say, America's resolve for regime-change has fully collapsed.

And then to make trouble again.

Which is why war now might be undesirable - but still a better option for the West than waiting.

At present, of course, the onus remains on Saddam: The resolution requires that he disclose any weapons stockpiles and programs by Dec. 8 - not that U.N. inspectors be required to find them.

A credible U.S. threat of imminent military action may force Saddam to play ball. For now.

"If Iraq fails to fully comply, the United States and other nations will disarm Saddam Hussein," Bush has promised.

The first test is just three weeks away.

-- Anonymous, November 14, 2002