Jeb Bush's Florida Win Helped by Low Black Turnout

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MIAMI (Reuters) - Jeb Bush's bigger-than-expected victory margin in his re-election as Florida's Republican governor was due partly to black voters not coming out in large numbers to support his Democratic challenger, according to a report published on Friday.

President Bush (news - web sites)'s younger brother, who had been just ahead in opinion polls before the election, beat Democrat Bill McBride by 56 percent to 43.2 percent.

An analysis of predominantly black precincts said black voters overwhelming favored McBride, by 94 percent to 6 percent. But only 43 percent of black voters cast ballots, compared with a 55 percent turnout among non-blacks, according to the survey conducted for the Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times by pollster Schroth and Associates.

Black turnout in the state for the November 2000 presidential election was 72 percent, helping create the extremely close result Bush and Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites). Bush won by just 537 votes in the state after a post-election legal battle over recounts.

On Tuesday, Florida Democrats had counted on overwhelming turnout by black voters, although they knew that McBride, a lawyer and political novice, commanded less support among African Americans than Janet Reno (news - web sites), the former U.S. attorney general he defeated for the gubernatorial nomination in a Democratic primary in September.

In part, they hoped that blacks, who make up 11 percent of Florida's voters, would be inspired to go to the polls after being disproportionately disenfranchised by voting snafus in 2000 and again in the September primary.

As the campaign drew to a close, Democrats anxiously courted blacks, with appearances by former President Bill Clinton, Gore and the Rev. Jesse Jackson (news - web sites). Jackson told voters not to be discouraged by the problems that plagued the last two statewide elections.

The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights said in a report last year that black voters were nearly 10 times more likely than white voters to have their ballots rejected in the 2000 election. A study last month by the American Civil Liberties Union (news - web sites) said black voters were also disenfranchised more than others in the September primary election, which was marred by polling snafus in southern Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

Analysts said the turnout among blacks was a crucial factor in why McBride lost to Bush by so wide a margin, but even if black turnout had been higher, it would not have changed who won the election, the Herald said.

The Schroth analysis looked at people who voted in 29 precincts in which 85 percent or more of the voters are black. The precincts were in nine counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Hillsborough, Orange, Duval, Leon, Escambia, Brevard and Lee.

-- Anonymous, November 08, 2002


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