Lili Regains Strength, Nears Jamaica By MICHAEL NORTON : Associated Press Writer Sep 28, 2002 : 3:48 am ET

LES CAYES, Haiti (AP) -- Lili regained tropical storm strength and pelted southern Haiti with heavy rain Friday as it churned toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

The storm got stronger a day after weakening into a tropical depression. In about three days, Lili could reach hurricane strength, said meteorologist Hugh Cobb at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Lili's winds were near 50 mph at 8 p.m. EDT. It was centered about 120 miles southeast of Kingston, the Jamaican capital, and was moving northwest at 7 mph.

Jamaica posted a tropical storm warning, the Cayman Islands went on tropical storm alert, and a tropical storm watch was posted for eastern Cuba.

Lili could strike Jamaica Saturday morning, said Frank Lepore, an information officer at the Hurricane Center. He said it was at least two days away from the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

Heavy rains and occasional gusts of wind buffeted southeast Haiti, especially the seaside resort of Jacmel, raising fears of mudslides in surrounding hilly country, said forecaster Ronald Semelfort of the National Weather Bureau.

Lili caused four deaths in St. Vincent early Tuesday, damaged 400 homes in Barbados and destroyed about half of St. Lucia's banana crop -- the island's main export.

-- Anonymous, September 28, 2002

Answers

Lili Soaks Jamaica, Heads for Cuba By STEVENSON JACOBS : Associated Press Writer Sep 29, 2002 : 12:03 am ET

KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP) -- Tropical Storm Lili pushed toward Cuba with strong gusts and rains that soaked parts of Jamaica and Haiti, flooding low-lying areas and damaging at least two dozen homes.

Late Saturday, Lili was approaching southeastern Cuba near the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where 598 suspected terrorists are being held in seaside cells.

Lili is projected to stalk Cuba's southern coast and possibly strengthen to a hurricane on Monday, before passing very close or over the southwest of the country, said Robert Molleda of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

High winds and flooding damaged at least 18 homes in Jamaica on Saturday, and pounding surf flooded six homes on Haiti's southwest tip.

"We're still on alert, but the storm wasn't as bad as we anticipated," said Sophia Mitchell of Jamaica's emergency management service.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Lili was about 105 miles southwest of Guantanamo Bay and had winds of about 45 mph, below the 74 mph minimum for a hurricane. Some strengthening was forecast in the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extended 70 miles from Lili's center, which was drifting northwest at 6 mph.

"Between Jamaica and Cuba and just off the coast of Haiti is where the strongest thunderstorms appear to be," to the north and southeast of Lili's center, Molleda said Saturday night.

Guantanamo Bay Naval Base was on storm alert and off-duty military police moved from seaside wooden cabins to concrete quarters, said Chief Petty Officer Gabriel Puello, a spokesman at the U.S. Southern Command in Miami.

The detainees, suspected of links to the fallen Afghan Taliban regime or al-Qaida terrorist network, remained in their cells, Puello said. The military has said it could move the men to a more secure location if need be.

The U.S. outpost halted all boat and plane traffic while Lili's outer bands brought rain.

In Jamaica's capital, Kingston, gusts ripped tiles from Otter Spence's roof and flooded his home. "Everything we own is wet. I feel like we're going to wash away too," he said.

At least 12 people in central Jamaica returned from a shelter to their flooded homes after waters receded.

Jamaica remained under a tropical storm warning, along with four Cuban provinces. Two other Cuban provinces were under a watch as well as two of the Cayman Islands, Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

Lili left four dead in St. Vincent Tuesday when a mudslide slammed into a home, crushing a mother and three children. It also damaged some 400 homes in Barbados and destroyed about half of St. Lucia's banana crop -- the island's main export.

Out in the open Atlantic, meanwhile, Kyle was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm and at 11 p.m. had winds of about 50 mph, down from 60 mph earlier Saturday. Kyle became the third hurricane of the Atlantic season on Thursday, but was weakening about 350 miles south of Bermuda and threatened only ships.

-- Anonymous, September 28, 2002

See NOAA's neat graphics here.

-- Anonymous, September 28, 2002

Checking the strike probabilities at the above link, looks like Lili is set to follow almost exactly in Isidore's footsteps. Will her winds be stronger? Bears watching closely.

-- Anonymous, September 30, 2002

Y'all can watch it. I'm on vacation.

-- Anonymous, September 30, 2002

Hurricane Lili threatens Cuba Mon, Sep. 30, 2002 7:57 PM ET Dr. Steve Lyons, Tropical Expert Tropical Update, The Weather Channel Hurricane Lili has intensified slowly but steadily the past 18 hours and now has winds estimated at 80 mph. Moving WNW at 10 mph, little change in track is expected the next 36 to 48 hours but some increase in forward speed is likely. The 72 hour forecast is aimed just offshore the TX/LA coastline with a trend toward a more NNW track at that time. It may turn more NNE at landfall. The circulation is currently tiny as hurricane wind radii extend out only 15 nm from the center. Typically small hurricanes remain small unless they interact with extratropical weather systems. Therefore, only a small area of the U.S. Gulf coast should be impacted by Lili, near and a little east of the center. Currently, we expect it to be moving at least 12-15 mph at landfall. This should limit rainfall impacts. Waves will be small on the east side of the circulation and no a threat on the west side. The intensity forecast is to a Category 3 in 72 hours. If this happens, a localized area of surge and damaging winds will affect the coastline. Hurricane watches and warnings are up for parts of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Yucantan. The first place watches/warnings could be posted for the U.S. is in the Florida Keys, but currently the circulation remains so small they may not be necessary there. The track confidence is fairly high the first 36 hours, fair through 48 and marginal to 72 hours as the hurricane could take a turn from WNW or NW toward N or NNE before landfall. Gulf Coast residents should monitor the situation and make sure they have their hurricane plan in place should they have to implement it. TD Kyle is weakening along a frontal boundary...it remains a marine hazard but will cause some wave action along the Florida east coast to 6 feet the next 24 to 36 hours. The remainder of the Atlantic is quiet.

In the western Pacific, Typhoon Higos (125 mph) is heading toward Japan. Higos should weaken steadily as it charges northward , but still should be at least a minimal typhoon as it churns just south of Tokyo on Tuesday.

-- Anonymous, October 01, 2002

Heard some weather nit on tv refer to the Sea of Japan as the Japanese Sea. Sounded silly.

-- Anonymous, October 01, 2002

Posted on Tue, Oct. 01, 2002 Isidore victims hit by Hurricane Lili BY MARTIN MERZER mmerzer@herald.com

CLEVELAND BANKS / AP Residents of the Cayman Islands huddled in shelters Monday and 127,000 people in western Cuba fled their homes as Hurricane Lili pounded the same areas ravaged 10 days ago by Hurricane Isidore.

More déj vu: The storm's projected path pointed like another arrow at the heart of the upper U.S. Gulf Coast.

Landfall as an intense Category 3 hurricane was expected late Thursday -- between Houston and New Orleans, an area also targeted by Isidore.

''Bottom line is that we should have a major hurricane nearing the Gulf coastline in three days,'' said forecaster James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

The only likely effect on South Florida will be cloudy skies today, with steady breezes and scattered showers as Lili's outermost bands roll through the region.

But residents elsewhere in the hurricane zone faced serious danger.

Lili already is a killer. At least three people, including a 3-year- old child, died Sunday in Jamaica when flood waters swept them away. Four people died last week when Lili hit St. Vincent on the Caribbean's outer rim.

Heavy rain and wind still hammered parts of Jamaica and nearly all of the Cayman Islands on Monday, threatening floods and mudslides.

All schools were closed in the Caymans. About half of the 1,200 residents of the eastern island of Cayman Brac lost electricity.

Hundreds of people moved to shelters.

Cuba issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Pinar del Río, the Isle of Youth and the city and province of Havana. Tropical-storm alerts remained in effect for the rest of Cuba and on Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.

Lili's center was expected to hit the Isle of Youth this morning and then slice across the western end of the main island. At that point, its sustained winds could reach 100 mph.

Once again, western Cuba was in crisis mode. People and livestock were moved to higher ground. Schools closed. Radio and television stations broadcast continuous weather reports.

In eastern Cuba, also battered by Lili's fringe rain and wind, 20 buildings collapsed and 111 were damaged, local officials said. No injuries were reported.

In addition to the three people killed in Jamaica, 40 homes were destroyed there, 120 were flooded, and 750 Jamaicans moved to emergency shelters, officials said.

The Flat Bridge, on a key road linking Kingston with the north coast resorts of Ocho Rios and Montego Bay, was impassable. Mud slides were reported in many western districts.

Forecasters also began raising alarms about the danger to the upper U.S. Gulf Coast, likely to sustain a direct strike Thursday.

Last week, Tropical Storm Isidore swamped the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents of many areas far inland were still cleaning up on Monday.

The most worrisome problem: Lili was almost certain to grow more intense, feeding off warm Gulf water until it exceeded the 111-mph wind threshold of a major hurricane.

''Lili appears poised for some fairly significant strengthening,'' Franklin said. ``The waters in the northwestern Gulf are high octane.'' Herald staff writer Renato Pérez and Herald wire services contributed to this report.

-- Anonymous, October 01, 2002