After today's individual time trail, Igor Gonzalez De Galdeano is in the yellow jersey with Lance in second (26 seconds back) and Beloki in 3rd (1:23 back). Both IGDG and Beloki are on the Once team.

What sort of strategies will Once use? What strategies will we see from USPS?

I know OK has a number of serious TDF fans as well as some serious bike racers. I'm looking forward to hearing what you guys expect.

-- Michael (meglin@juno.com), July 15, 2002

Answers

Right after I posted the question, the OK forum was down for a couple of days. So, I guess my specific question is a bit irrelevant (Lance took the yellow jersey today).

Maybe a new question is relevant -- if you're Once, what do you do? Give up and aim to get Beloki on the podium? Go for the win? What is your strategy?

-- Michael (meglin@juno.com), July 18, 2002.

It is Thursday. The shadow-boxing has come to an end and the road has tilted up into the sky. These slopes are the domain of the climbers, those diminutive men with big hearts. It is a time for the heads of state to come to the fore and dare to ask themselves questions of greatness.

The peloton makes natural selections. Reputation means nothing. On "mountain roads", little more than oxen trails, there's nowhere to hide. The man who dares to win will have to take the bit between the teeth and find his second pair of legs. If he can show them a clean pair of wheels, his name will echo down the hallowed halls of cycling's greatest. Meanwhile, the best of the rest, as it were, will have their efforts turned to mere survival.

Not since the halcyon days of Eddy Merckx has the peloton seen the likes of a man like Armstrong. Armstrong doesn't attack often - only once per stage and maybe only 3 or 4 times in a Tour. When he does attack, it is for real and then the elastic stretches, it snaps, and we ask ourselves is there no limit to what this man can do?

Strategy to win the '02 Tour should be one to unseat Armstrong. Another strategy would be one to assure second place or a spot on the podium. These could be different strategies. Barring accident, the biggest threat to Armstrong's dominance should come from the spanish-speaking riders, but there are others waiting in the wings.

The Kelme boys - should be aggressive. Baby-faced Sevilla should be coming into his element (although he didn't exactly impress today). With a blue-eyed Colombian at his side, he must attack relentlessly to isolate Armstrong from his teammates. That team should try to find another "revelation" for this year's tour and then Kelme can send him up the road a ways without attracting a lot of attention and amass numbers. I don't think it will be easy for any team to shed a guy like Heras though.

ONCE can no longer be elusive as to who is strongest on the team, so that tactic is out the window. They can try to use their team depth, to attack in pairs, breaking up the rythym of the climb. That won't bother Armstrong, but some other climbers can't adjust pace so easily. We'll have to see how people like Rumsas, Kivilev, Basso, etc. do once this happens. I'd say ONCE should work to get Beloki into second position on the podium. They can hold out hope Lance gets sick or bonks or something, then pounce hard.

USPS is more or less in control it seems. They could work towards getting a couple of people on the podium. Heras seems to be the natural choice for 3rd if he continues to climb strongly then holds things together in the last time trial. I think he can get third in this Tour as he works to help Armstrong.

Ibanesto.com & E-E aren't shaking things up this year. Menchov cracked pretty early on the Tourmalet. They should look for a stage win somewhere (which David E. did I guess, but failed).

CSC - I thought they'd have a couple of guys who were climbing better. They'll have to pick it up to be a factor.

Lampre & Fasso B. - It will be interesting to see Rumsas come into form. A rider without many teammates should look for allies like himself. Maybe he and Basso could work together since their teams are Italian.

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), July 18, 2002.