Security Threat - AIDS Not Just Health Crisis, Experts Fear

By Geraldine Sealey, ABC News.com Link

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/securityaids020702.html

July 2 — We know that AIDS ravages bodies. But can the disease topple governments?

Some experts fear the infectious epidemic that has already killed 22 million worldwide could also unseat leaders, change borders and threaten global security.

The theoretical trail of wreckage goes something like this: AIDS decimates military, police and peacekeeping forces, erodes social services and local institutions and incites internal unrest by eroding faith in government. Ultimately, the epidemic could leave power vacuums in hardest-hit countries, making nations vulnerable to aggressors and terrorists.

"If you simply sit back and watch these places become unhinged, particularly in weak states to begin with, there's no question you'll be inviting despair, extremism, and alienation from the rest of the world and particularly the United States," said J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, the epidemic is soon expected to explode full-blown in Russia, India and China. In a worst-case scenario for international security, one of these "second wave" states would weaken, experts say.

"The consequences in terms of security in major nuclear powers has to be one of major concern," said Mark Schneider, senior vice president of the International Crisis Group.

The opportunistic potential for terrorists to jump into the political voids left by HIV/AIDS particularly concerns Western leaders. The United States government has cited the society-leveling potential of AIDS as a lure for terrorist cells seeking aimless, willing volunteers for their anti-Western ranks.

While experts say there is no evidence that terror networks like Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda are rising out of the ashes of AIDS-torn countries, the possibility is not being ignored.

Staggering Potential for Social Transformation

For now, the worst evils of AIDS have tormented the African continent. More than 28 million Africans are living with AIDS and in some countries, over 30 percent of the adult population is infected, according to the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS. In Botswana, for example, AIDS has cut the average life expectancy from 62 to 37 years of age.

Experts fear that such massive, unprecedented transformation in the hardest-hit countries, including most of sub-Saharan Africa, Haiti, Guyana, and Cambodia, could lead to government instability.

"The underlying conclusion is as the economic status deteriorates, and as the social sectors collapse, there could be the possible destabilization of governments," said Paul De Lay, director of the U.S. Agency for International Development's HIV office.

Countries where adult prevalency rates exceed 5 percent are particularly vulnerable, De Lay said. So far, Russia, China and India have not reached such infection rates.

"You're not going to see it happen right now in India. If the situation becomes worse, it's possible," he said. "In Africa, it's a reality."

Nonetheless, the predictions in sheer numbers for the second wave countries are staggering.

Some estimates predict that 5 million to 10 million teenage males in Russia will be infected five years from now. In China, 10 million people could carry HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, by the end of the decade. India already has the highest number of infected in absolute numbers of any country, even though the national infection rate is less than 1 percent.

Military, Police Forces Fall to AIDS

It may seem to stretch logic to begin with a public health crisis and end with a global security threat. But experts say anything is possible with this unprecedented pandemic.

Perhaps most directly, AIDS eats away at a nation's ability to defend itself by killing the forces dedicated to national security. When soldiers, police officers and international peacekeepers become infected in such large numbers that their capabilities are threatened, security is undermined.

Already, this phenomenon is taking place in Africa. Consider these damning statistics:

In Kenya, AIDS accounts for about three-quarters of the deaths among police.

Defense ministers in some African countries report HIV prevalence averages of 20 to 40 percent in their militaries. In Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the rates are as high as 50 to 60 percent.

So far in Africa, military forces suffer infection rates several times that of the general population. If this pattern continues, Russia, China, and India could find themselves with diminished military capacity. The Russian military already is gravely concerned about the rising rates of HIV infection among its troops.

Soldiers facing death sentences of AIDS can act recklessly, some say, potentially sparking conflicts. "There's nothing more dangerous than a soldier with a gun who already thinks he is going to die," said De Lay.

AIDS likely contributed in this fashion to the genocide in Rwanda during the 1990s, De Lay added. Although ethnic tensions were also blamed, the prevalence of HIV infection likely fueled the violence. Some Rwandan women reported being raped and told by the soldiers: "I just gave you the AIDS virus," according to De Lay.

Two Generations Destroyed

The AIDS epidemic also eats away at the economic and social stability of hard-hit nations, exacerbating vulnerability and potentially inciting internal unrest.

In Africa, the disease is blamed for rolling back decades of economic development. By 2020, more than a quarter of the work force in severely affected African countries will vanish, UNAIDS estimates.

Not only are families less able to support themselves — they also are disappearing. As adults vanish by the million, their children are being orphaned in disturbing numbers. More than 13 million children are without parents already in Africa, and that number is expected to more than triple by 2010, leaving 42 million orphans.

Exacerbating the problem, weakened health, education, welfare and justice programs prevent broken families and orphans from getting needed services.

"AIDS is destroying almost two generations of Africans," Schneider said. "When life expectancy drops by 20 years in some countries as a result of AIDS it has an enormous shock through society."

Experts say political turmoil could easily result, especially in weak states, if leaders do not get the epidemic in check.

South Africa, where an estimated 20 percent of adults are infected with HIV, has already experienced such unrest. The economic and health impact of HIV/AIDS has led to political splits in the African National Congress and raised the ire of citizens who believe their government has failed them.

Wanted: Money and Resolve

Despite the gloomy predictions, experts say it is still possible to rein in the AIDS epidemic and its potentially destabilizing consequences, especially in more secure countries such as Russia, China and India.

"Once there is the political will, there would be the capacity to respond," Schneider said. "You want to engender and help awaken and catalyze political will in these countries before the epidemic reaches a breakout point."

Countries such as Uganda, Senegal, Brazil and Thailand already have employed national resources to cut down on infection rates.

But such initiatives take political resolve and significant financial investment. So far, critics say the international community, with the United States at the helm, has yet to offer adequate support.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has requested a fund of up to $10 billion per year devoted to help pay for AIDS education and anti-retroviral AIDS drugs. Only 7 percent of that amount has been pledged so far.

If world leaders knew that AIDS could be stopped, perhaps they would be more likely to devote funds. "With proper intervention, we really can stem this. There would be a lot more enthusiasm for dedicating the resources that are necessary if people understood that," said Vivian Lowery Derryck, former USAID assistant administrator for Africa in the Clinton administration.

-- Anonymous, July 02, 2002

Answers

From what I've read, much of the problem stems from the fact that African men refuse to use condoms and their wives are too subservient to protest. There have also been numerous cases of baby-rape in South Africa because some believe that intercourse with a virgin cures AIDS. Given the scope of the problem in Africa, "safe" sex would appear to be the only rational answer. Education requires money. Much of that money will go down the drain to the Swiss bank accounts of African leaders, judging from past performance. I don't see any workable solution, to be honest.

As for the Clinton spokesmoron, you mean Bill didn't solve the problem in his eight years of office?

-- Anonymous, July 02, 2002

If they didn't look for the river when the well was right next to them the problem wouldn't occur in the first place.

I know that our troops get checked every 6 months.

When hubby and I first met, he voiced some concern. I assured him that I was clean (and I am). There is no way that I'm getting it unless it is from him. There is no way he is getting it unless it is from me.

As for Ms vivan Lowery Derryck, we all know how Bill Clinton wants to stop it, with cigars of course!

-- Anonymous, July 02, 2002

Imagine an AIDS camp, where all the infected people are put so as to protect the healthy population...

For the wellbeing of the healthy population, of course...

-- Anonymous, July 02, 2002

That's about how they handle it in Cuba, BF. It's how they still handle leprosy, I hear. The only leper colony in the US is in Louisiana, forget the name.

-- Anonymous, July 03, 2002