Germany - Deutsche Bank to lay off 3,800 staff

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Y2K discussion group : One Thread

Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, has announced plans to cut 3,770 jobs.

The reduction, which comes in addition to 9,200 previously announced job cuts, is part of the bank's push to slash costs in order to save 2bn euros (£1.29bn; $1.97bn) a year.

Just over half the jobs will be lost in the bank's Corporate and Investment Bank division over the next 12 months with the rest being cut from its Private Client and Asset Management division as well as in infrastructure areas, the bank said.

The corporate and investment banking job cuts will come across the world. Just over half of them will come in the Americas, 315 in the UK, 320 in the rest of Europe and 310 in the Asia-Pacific region.

Most of the money management jobs will be lost in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

Return to profits

Deutsche Bank said it would take a restructuring charge of about 265m euros later this year.

Following the latest round of cuts, Deutsche will have cut almost 13,000 from its 97,000 strong workforce.

The bank set out to restructure after its net profits were almost wiped out in 2001 when they fell from 13.5bn euros the previous year to just 167m euros.

The bank's financial performance is already improving. During the first three months of 2002, its net profits rose to 597 million euros.

Deutsche's shares rose 4.3% on Thursday.

BBC

TB 2000 Archives

Monday, December 13, 1999

Deutsche crash Deutsche Bank, the German-based finance giant, underwent a 10-hour computer meltdown this month that affected an estimated 1 million international banking transactions. The Dec. 1 crash came eight days after the bank installed an upgrade to its IMS Transaction Manager software, made by IBM, according to reports in The Financial Times and ComputerWeekly. A backup system also failed because it contained the same software problem. Deutsche Bank said the glitch was not Y2K related. Sources cited by both publications said it was. The system is used in the clearing of international payments among banks. Deutsche Bank has been forced to apologize to other international banks and offer interest on the late payments, which were cleared the day after the computer crash.

-- Anonymous, June 28, 2002

Answers

From TB 2000 Archives

Info gridlock, economic meltdown (Ed Yardeni)

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
http://www.msnbc.com/news/188669.asp?cp1=1

Link

Info gridlock, economic meltdown Times running out on a solution to Year 2K dilemma

By Ed Yardeni SPECIAL TO MSNBC

The millennial clock is relentlessly ticking. And while some are preparing to welcome the turn of a momentous century in human history, there are plenty of others in the public and private sectors  computer scientists, economists, bankers and policy makers  who are preparing for trouble. I am one of them.

Where the bug will bite Full coverage: The millennium bug Year 2000 Issues E-mail the Opinions Editor

The Year 2K bug is more than just a computer problem. It is a serious threat not only to the U.S. economy, but to the global economy.

SOME OF us in this ad hoc association of problem-solvers are feverishly working to fix the millennium bug, which could cripple many of our computer systems. Others are working to alert the public to the likelihood that not all systems will be fixed in time to recognize that 00 in the commonly used two-digit year field is 2000, not 1900. We are promoting contingency planning to deal with the expected disruptions in government, business, and international activities. The Year 2K bug is more than just a computer problem. It is a serious threat to the U.S. economy. Indeed, it is bound to disrupt the entire global economy. I believe that the dawning of the year 2000 may spark a worldwide recession that could last at least 12 months. This event could be at least as severe as the 1973-74 global recession, which was caused by the OPEC oil crisis. If the supply of information is disrupted, many economic activities will be impaired, if not entirely halted. In the United States, the consequences of the Year 2K bug could begin to be evident in late 1999, causing the real GDP to fall 5 percent from peak to trough over a 12-month to 24-month period. I also expect a 30 percent drop in stock prices. This is not a doomsday scenario, though. Indeed, signs of an economic recovery and a bull market could start to emerge in the year 2001. INADEQUATE RESPONSE The response to the Year 2000 problem from global leaders has been pathetic. There is little or no leadership coming from the United States or any other of the leading industrialized nations. They are doing too little to increase global awareness; to accelerate the pace of remediation and to prepare for the potential failure of vital systems. The U.S. government continues to make progress, but the pace is too slow. Our government needs to set national priorities and prepare national contingency plans. Key government regulators  including the Federal Communications Commission, the Securities & Exchange Commission, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission  all admit that even they dont have the necessary information to assess the gravity of the situation.

Do you believe that problems associated with the Year 2K bug will result in a global economic crisis? * 15565 responses Yes 55% No 33% Don't know 12%

Survey results tallied every 60 seconds. Live Votes reflect respondents' views and are not scientifically valid surveys.

In the private sector, it is widely assumed that companies will be ready for the century date change. However, given the lack of adequate disclosure, this may be a naively optimistic assumption. Recent guidance bulletins from the Securities and Exchange Commission may accelerate the disclosure issues, yet even that may not prevent the type of disruption through the supply chains inherent in most major corporations today. HOW SEVERE A RECESSION? If the public becomes alarmed, stock prices could fall sharply in 1999, in anticipation of a recession in 2000. The resulting loss in confidence could cause consumers to retrench in 1999. If bankers cause a credit crunch by refusing to lend to companies that are most at risk of failing in 2000, many businesses, large and small, could be at substantial risk. Companies are likely to start fortressing in 1999: theyll only do business with vendors and customers that are expected to be ready with their respective Y2K- compatible systems. My basic premise is that most computer systems will be fixed in time, but some important ones wont be ready. If information is harder to obtain, due to Y2K incompatibilities among information systems, the amount of commercial and financial transactions we can support will necessarily be reduced. In the United States, real GDP dropped 3.7 percent from peak to trough during 1973-74. I estimate that an identical drop, starting in 2000, would reduce real GDP by $300 billion, back to where it was in early 1998. Is this too pessimistic  or realistic? Actually, in my opinion, it might be too optimistic to believe that the information gridlock wont be even more damaging, sending us further back in time, when the level of GDP that our information systems supported was even lower. ACTION ON THE INTERNET Most computer systems will be fixed in time, but some important ones wont be ready.

Starting on today  Global Y2K Action Day  I am hosting and moderating a series of global Y2K action conferences, which are being made available on the Internet, on the important milestone dates representing 500, 400, 300, 200, and 100 days left in the countdown to the millennium. Finally, on December 31, 1999, a global millennium countdown conference will be held, with Y2K status reports from New Zealand, Australia and Japan. India, Israel and Turkey will weigh in with their reports, followed by Europe, the United States and Latin America. We will monitor Y2K issues on a real-time basis as the worlds time zones move into the Year 2000. These conferences will seek to answer the big questions: How much progress have governments and businesses been making so far? Which ones are at greatest risk of either experiencing significant disruptions or failing? What are the issues related to energy, health care, telecommunications, and embedded systems in manufacturing? What are corporations disclosing and what is the significance to the economy? How should we prepare for disruptions individually and collectively? As judgment day for our computers approaches, we will spend more time on contingency planning and community action issues. The worst-case scenario is that we all become concerned about Y2K late in 1999, without having the information we must have to assess the situation. The potential for panic reactions must be minimized by a collective educational effort delivered in a timely, articulate, and balanced approach, now and at least every 100 days until the dawning of the Year 2000.

Ed Yardeni is the Chief Economist and a Managing Director of Deutsche Bank Securities Working from the firms headquarters in New York City, he writes the Global Economic Analysis, Global Portfolio Strategy, Global Economic Briefing, and Y2K Reporter, as well as a variety of topical studies.

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), October 29, 1999

-- Anonymous, June 28, 2002


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