A Sort of Balance Sheet

All these totals are from my database and are therefore based on figures gleaned from a number of sources. These are in no way a definitive set of figures since no 2 sources agree on any transfer fees other than Bosman's and the 15m for Shearer, but these are hopefully some sort of basis for discussion.

	Keegan £m	Dalglish £m	Gullit £m	Robson £m	NUFC £m
Bought	60.18	36.03	33.15	39.75	169.11
Sold	19.53	24.85	25.45	24.35	94.18
Balance of Player Trading	-40.65	-11.18	-7.7	-15.4	-74.93
	Signed by Keegan	Signed   by Dalglish	Signed by  Gullit	Signed by Robson	Signed   by  NUFC
No of Signings Sold	45	20	6	3	74
Cost of Signings Sold	45.18	24.8	20.85	0.7	91.53
Income from Signings Sold	56.48	23.7	14	0	94.18
Balance of Signings Sold	11.3	-1.1	-6.85	-0.7	2.65
No of Current Players Signed	2	13	3	14	32
Cost of Current Players	15	11.23	12.3	39.05	77.58
Market Value of Current Players	10	26	17	45	98
Balance of Current Players if Sold	-5	14.77	4.7	5.95	20.42
Total Balance of All Signings	6.3	13.67	-2.15	5.25	23.07

The top half of the table deals with straight balance of trading by each manager in millions. The bottom half explores how much money we have managed to recoup from each manager's signings to date or are likely to do if we tried selling them all tomorrow. The 2 most debatable values I have used for current players are Shearer at £6m since we would not sell and Dyer at £15m when some would argue £20m. Jenas is also likely to send Robson's current values upwards as he is at present only worth what we paid for him.

Whichever way the cookie crumbles, it appears that in player-trading we have been well served by our last 4 managers and that the trading of players has to be viewed as a long game: who would have guessed at the time that we would ever end up in profit from Dalglish's transfer policy? Guess I have convinced myself that I owe him an apology on that point (though not on any others!).

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Answers

Just as a matter of interest - which may or may not put Dalglish in the black - do we receive money from insurance payouts? I would assume that we would get a portion of the money splashed out on Serrant back when he has to retire - obviously not the full amount but some?

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

This is very interesting stuff Softie. I've commented on here more than once that TSM did sign some good players who are still key to the team but a surplus of £13m is a surprise. What's your valuation of Shay in this? He must be worth £12m-£15m the way he is playing this season. What puzzles me is just how badly TSM had these same players playing!

I've always believed it's possible to balance the books (or profit) on player trading. The Keegan numbers are especially impressive. Remember, when he left Shearer must have been worth £18m and Lee £4m so that would add £13m to the KK profit. I've said on here before that KK inherited a squad worth nothing, spent £40m and left behind a squad worth £60m with a profit of £20m which broadly equates to your analysis. Yet you read so much about KK having run down the club's finances which is well wide of the mark.

Robson might well do better than anyone. His policy of buying young is very sound. I hate the idea of shelling out millions on players 29+ as they are depreciating assets whereas if you get the young players right they can be sold for much more later if they want to go, or you keep them for years and the cost wasn't excessive.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Given, Hughes and Solano make up the lion's share of the potential value of Dalglish's signings still in the squad, there is still plenty of old tat about.

Another vital factor when looking at KK's balances is that he inherited a squad doing it's best to play in the third tier of English football and the value of the players matched their ability. Most of the profit from Keegan's sales was from players he had himself signed rather than any that he inherited. Dalglish sold Clark and Elliott, Gullit sold Watson and Robson sold Howey who were the best of the youngsters KK inherited.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Very interesting and illuminating analysis, Softie.

When you've a moment would you care to post your assumed valuation of the present squad, just out of interest.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Good stuff, always thought Keegan "branded" his players. Bought a few good (reletively cheap) one's put on a KK/NUFC logog and sold them to some unsuspecting punter (usually Spurs) at a profit.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Hughes wasn't a signing as such, he came through from the junior side, and I think he wa sgivena first team shirt number by Keegan just before he left. Bets to leave him out of things altogther I would say.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Quite right about Hughes, evens up Keegan and Dalglish nicely. It also alerts me to the fact that Keegan has been credited with signing the juniors already used by Ardiles which is another dropped bollock....perhaps we can credit them with only gaining value once they became Premiership regulars until I sort out the pre-Keegan category.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

A Sort of Adjusted Spreadsheet

	Pre- Keegan  £m	Keegan £m	Dalglish £m	Gullit £m	Robson £m	NUFC £m
Bought	1.38	59.98	36.03	33.15	39.75	170.29
Sold	0.00	22.81	24.85	25.45	24.35	97.46
Balance of Player Trading	- 1.38	-37.18	-11.18	-7.70	-15.40	-72.84
	Signed  Pre- Keegan	Signed by Keegan	Signed   by Dalglish	Signed by  Gullit	Signed by Robson	Signed   by  NUFC
No of Signings Sold	15	42	20	6	3	86
Cost of Signings Sold	1.38	44.98	24.80	20.85	0.70	92.71
Income from Signings Sold	16.28	43.48	23.70	14.00	0.00	97.46
Balance of Signings Sold	14.90	-1.50	-1.10	-6.85	-0.70	4.75
No of Current Players Signed	0	3	12	3	13	31
Cost of Current Players	0.00	15.00	11.23	12.30	39.05	77.58
Market Value of Current Players	0.00	14.00	22.00	17.00	45.00	98.00
Balance of Current Players if Sold	0.00	-1.00	10.77	4.70	5.95	20.42
Total Balance of All Signings	14.90	- 2.50	9.67	- 2.15	5.25	25.17

Hmmmm. That puts a different complexion on things, doesn't it? The missing players were courtesy of the fact that my database was set up to record only our premiership campaigns (the likes of Kelly, Makel, Hunt, McDonough never showed up) so it's added a few more to the mix and pinched a nearly £15mil off Keegan's sales. Still, £25+mil in player-trading is pretty good going.

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

I'd like to see the same stats for Sunderland...

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Thought provoking as ever Softie. Wondered why you'd been quiet lately...... The Keegan numbers back what I've always said about him. Dalglish is interesting though - did we/would we make money on any of his players apart from Solano and the German?

-- Anonymous, February 27, 2002

Breakdown for Dalglish in Full

Player	Bought	Sold	Profit/Loss
Hamann	£4,500,000.00	£8,000,000.00	£3,500,000.00
Robinson P	£250,000.00	£1,500,000.00	£1,250,000.00
Ketsbaia	£0.00	£900,000.00	£900,000.00
Charvet	£750,000.00	£1,500,000.00	£750,000.00
Dalglish	£0.00	£300,000.00	£300,000.00
Pinas	£0.00	£200,000.00	£200,000.00
Perez	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00
Elliott S	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00
Pearce	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00
Guivarc'h	£3,500,000.00	£3,500,000.00	£0.00
Barnes	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00
Tomasson	£2,500,000.00	£2,500,000.00	£0.00
Georgiades	£500,000.00	£300,000.00	-£200,000.00
Serrant	£500,000.00	£0.00	-£500,000.00
Brady	£650,000.00	£0.00	-£650,000.00
Glass	£650,000.00	£0.00	-£650,000.00
Andersson	£3,000,000.00	£2,000,000.00	-£1,000,000.00
Hamilton	£1,500,000.00	£0.00	-£1,500,000.00
Pistone	£4,500,000.00	£3,000,000.00	-£1,500,000.00
	£22,800,000.00	£23,700,000.00	£900,000.00
Player	Bought	Market Value	Profit/Loss
Given	£1,500,000.00	£6,000,000.00	£4,500,000.00
Solano	£2,480,000.00	£6,000,000.00	£3,520,000.00
Ameobi	£0.00	£2,000,000.00	£2,000,000.00
Dabizas	£2,000,000.00	£3,000,000.00	£1,000,000.00
McClen	£0.00	£1,000,000.00	£1,000,000.00
Caldwell G	£0.00	£250,000.00	£250,000.00
Green	£0.00	£150,000.00	£150,000.00
Caldwell S	£0.00	£150,000.00	£150,000.00
Kerr	£0.00	£100,000.00	£100,000.00
Beharall	£0.00	£100,000.00	£100,000.00
Coppinger	£250,000.00	£250,000.00	£0.00
Griffin	£1,500,000.00	£1,000,000.00	-£500,000.00
Speed	£5,500,000.00	£2,000,000.00	-£3,500,000.00
	£13,230,000.00	£22,000,000.00	£8,770,000.00
Totals	£36,030,000.00	£45,700,000.00	£9,670,000.00

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

To directly compare managers, you need to do an internal transfer by crediting the outgoing manager with the estimated value of the players he bought and debiting the new manager with the same value of the players he has inherited. It is right to ignore all home grown players. Keegan's numbers are hurt by the fact that Shearer, Lee and Barton are worth a fraction of their value when Keegan left, and all gave sterling service to the next 3 managers.

Great analysis Softie. Well done.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

£150k for Steve Caldwell !! When he's been capped by his nation !!! I'll have two of them please

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Nick, what's the point of doing a comparison of Sunderland managers expenditure when we've only had one manager in seven years?

If you want to know how much Reid has wasted you can go to www.soccerbase.com, select Sunderland from teams and click on Transfers.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Saddo that I am ....

Reid has spent £49.6 m and sold £22.4m over the last 7 seasons, a net spend of £27.2m.

Current team is worth less say £35m (don't ask me to say how) so Reid is up £8m on dealings, but Phillips has gone up £10m in worth so all the rest are net down.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Not trying to nit-pick Softie, but for the sake of completeness did TSM not sign Shaka Hislop for ca. £1.5m? Of course, he subsequently left for nowt.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Hmph. I did make some similar points about KD/RG's dealings on the 'light relief' thread, but no-one saw fit to comment. *sulks*


Clarky - Hislop was signed by Keegan in 8/95.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Fair dos macbeth, but Milton Nunez has been capped loads of times for Honduras and what sort of berk would pay good money for him?

Those values for the youngsters are fairly arbitrary but are based on the reports they have received from the Nationwide clubs they have been loaned out to - Coppinger also gets the inflationary value of being a goal-scorer.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Macbeth,

Firstly U R OBSESSED (Alert).

Now we've got that out the way, I'd be interested in reading your valuation of the current Sunderland squad. I'd put it as follows:

First team: Sorensen - 7m, Haas - 1m, Gray - 3m, Bjorklund - 1.5m, Craddock - 3m, McAteer - 1m, Reyna - 4.5m, Schwarz - 1m, Arca - 5m, Phillips - 11m (based on Fowler purchase), Quinn - 0, TOTAL = 38m

Others in first team frame: McCann - 4m, Kilbane - 1m, Thome - 4m, Varga - 0.5m, Thirlwell - 1m. Williams - 1.5m

We're now up to 45 million.

Then there's another two dozen reserves. Let's say they're worth 100k each on average and it's 47.4 million. That puts Reid up to 20 million with some quite conservative valuations on my part.

ML³

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Sorry, my maths are skew wiff: more like 52 million total.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

...... so, are you now suggesting Peyter's a genius ML? ;o{]

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

a roundabout way of concluding that keegan and robson are good while gullit and dalglish were shite - now there's a shocker.

more interestingly, the estimated value of the first team squad is 98 million while nufc plc has a market cap of 48 million. throw in the value of sjp and various real estate holdings plus any company cars and office supplies and we're trading well below 50% of a notional book value.

if the board were to act purely in the financial interests of the shareholders they'd shut the place down and liquidate the assets. luckily this is football not real business which is why you shouldn't be tempted to buy any football stock.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

Not sure about 7m for Sorensen, Barthez as 'greatest goalie in the world' was only 10m, would you pay £3m for Mickey Gray ?? I didn't realise you were going to spend the SK money on Fowler ??

Fowler has been capped and scored 5 at that level, has played regularly in Europe, is younger than SK, not sure SK would command the same. I can't generally commebt on your other players cos I don't know, but McCann must be gutted at being a £4m player and not getting more games

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

gb..... The "nett" value of the stadium (ie. after debt redemption) is probably not that much. Nevertheless, you provide a useful insight into why FS would consider buying the Club while the public market valuation provides him with the opportunity to acquire it a substantial discount to it's NAV. He could probably take it private at around 30p per share.

-- Anonymous, February 28, 2002

MacBeth, you are just nitpicking to score a few petty points.

I wouldn't pay 3 million for any of our team except Phillips or Sorensen this season, but that doesn't change their market value. I'm sure McCann would love to play but he has been injured. Phillips is generally accepted as a better all-round player than Fowler. Recent reports even suggested Arsenal were willing to offer 16 for him in the summer.

ML³

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2002

YES, of course I was nit picking !!

Player worth is a very strange thing. Once a player has been transfered for a big fee it seems to become his 'value' regardless of how good he is. Years ago we had the problem of McFaul paying £1m for Andy Thorn and only finding out too late he was only worth £250k, the board couldn't get their head around the fact that they couldn't sell this million pound player for a million pounds anymore.

For exactly the same reasons SK can't get into the England side, I doubt that he would go for as much as Fowler. I KNOW he's better than Marcus Stewart but it would be easy to say they were the same type of one season wonder (Ricketts this year ??). If someone offered £12m for him I'd bite their hands off, Reid could get half a dozen good players for that.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2002

What England squad is that? Have you had a premonition 2002 or are you basing your judgement on recent England games (with the exception of games Phillips has played in) and recent tournaments (with the exception of Euro 2000).

You obviously haven't seen Marcus Stewart and Kevin Phillips play or you would see the absurdity in the comparison. Marcus Stewart is a great, Fowler-esque "box" player, a predator, but he's not even in the same league as Phillips when it comes to his all-round game.

Anyway, you're nitpicking over one million quid.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2002

I think Phillips is a fine player - and his performance on Sunday bore that out - but Fowler is a bit special. Phillips isn't in the same class, nor are any English strikers of my generation with the possible exceptions of Michael Owen and Alan Shearer 5 years ago. His injury record on the other hand.......

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2002