Right - stattos, tell me how many points do you think will be needed to give a top 4 or top 5 place? I've been trying to find the final Prem league table for previous seasons to check out past stats - can't find them.

Any ideas? Not talking about us in particular, just the league in general. (This translates as 'I'm not getting carried away')

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

Answers

Since the Premierhsip was reduced to 20 teams / 38 games, these are the teams who have finished 4th (sorry about the lack of formatting)

1995/96 Villa 63

1996/97 Liverpool 68

1997/98 Chelsea 63

1998/99 Leeds 67

1999/00 Liverpool 67

2000/01 Leeds 68

69/70 points would guarantee a top four finish. Another 20/21 points in other words. We have 13 games left - 7 at home and 6 away.

I will let anyone who wants to get carried away do any sums they like based on those figures!

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

69/70 points!!!!!! More than I thought.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

BTW thanks Jacko.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

6 wins and a few draws and we're in the CL!

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

Fixtures left in the league:

Southampton H Sunderland A Arsenal H Liverpool A Ipswich H Blackburn A Everton H Villa A Fulham H Derby A Charlton H West Ham H Southampton A

Those last eight games are "should win"'s but if we beat Arsenal and /or Liverpool I suspect we won't have to get as many points.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

I've just had a look at the Mackem's remaining fixtures.

They've still got to play 7 of the top 9 teams (5 of top 6, having played ManU yesterday) and the bottom 3, who are fighting for their lives (at least Bolton and a Gregory-inspired Derby are - they've still got to play Derby twice). I wouldn't fancy that run in on the back of their current form.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

Right - stattos, tell me how many points do you think will be needed to give a top 4 or top 5 place?

Who do you support? Who wants to be 4th or 5th? :-)

The target is 76 points (2 per game) which will put us very close to the title (though when we came second we got 78). We are 3 points ahead of TJC's predictions he did recently which targets us now for 77 pts. Softie's prediction was slightly lower but I can't recall his final number.

Just cutting and pasting those fixtures kindly listed by Paul and a look at the points you might expect from current form :-

Southampton H 3 Sunderland A 1 Arsenal H 1 Liverpool A 0 Ipswich H 3 Blackburn A 1 Everton H 3 Villa A 1 Fulham H 3 Derby A 3 Charlton H 3 West Ham H 3 Southampton A 1.

That's 26 points plus our 49 so far which would put us on 75. That target is not unrealistic - indeed I've got us down for just one more away win despite the fact that all bar Liverpool we might strongly fancy our chances. On the other hand I've got us down to win 6 of 7 remaining homes - each game individually you would expect us to win - but all 6?

My point is that it is do-able. We might blow up with injuries, suspensions, we might just have a catastrophic loss of form over 3-4 games and self-destruct. The squad is thinner than that at Arse and Manure (fat B*****ds!) so the odds are against us. But it's getting exciting. At this stage in 1996 when I worked these numbers out, I felt fear. This time it's cool to not be seen as serious contenders. I'll be honest and say that somehow I don't think we'll do it (and I have experience of most of the 75 years since the last success!), but at the very least it's becoming a season to remember big time.

And of the remaining games - who will dare to score first against us? Leeds twice, Arsenal, Spurs and Bolton have all made that mistake recently! :-)

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

Nicely argued, Jonno.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2002

Jonno I hope you weren't casting doubt on my belief in the Toon??????!!!!!! Surely not. However I WAS being cautious - someting to do with chickens and laying eggs - ask Bobby Robson!

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Our big mistake against Leicester was not letting them score early on

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

I reckon 75 will take the title this year and 68 would see a team safely in 4th....19 points from 13 games...6 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats...even we should be able to do that! ;))

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Howay man Gav! win 6 lose 6 and draw one is a glass slightly over half full!!!! What's the matter with ya?

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Think i'm coming down with something.... ;))

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Southampton H (win) comfortable
Sunderland A (draw) they raise their game for us - might sneak it
Arsenal H (draw) grudge game and they're good
Liverpool A (lose) no chance
Ipswich H (win) comfortable
Blackburn A (win) comfortable
Everton H (win) comfortable
Villa A (draw) iffy game
Fulham H (win) iffy game
Derby A (win) comfortable
Charlton H (draw) good record against us at home
West Ham H (win) comfortable
Southampton A (draw) you know we won't win :-)

An optomistic 26 points gives us 75 for the season and a CL place. We won't win the League

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Arrogant bastards ...... all of you predicting you can get a draw at SoL, what makes you think you can do that ??

Seriously though, the 26 points everyone is homing in on will definitely get us in the CL, the league is so tight that the number of points required to win the title is far lower than usual. In 1997 when the Dalglish side finished 2nd, the 2nd 3rd and 4th sides all had 68 points, with 5th on 61. We will be very unlucky if we get 68 points and don't get in the CL. That takes the required number of points down to 19. Of course 2nd gets you straight into the CL rather than a qualifing round. Bets woudl probably be champions though

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

You're being a bit cocky there bobby....Arsenal are well capable of beating us at home...that game is too tight to call, i'd also not under-estimate southampton who apart from their thrashing by Moan Utd are doing very nicely against the top teams! Ipswich could also be a problem although i'm hoping their form will have disappeared by the time we play them.....i'm also worried about west ham....

They whupped us in a BIG way this season.....the best football i've seen played.....

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

EVERY team worries you, Gav! Like I said, optomistic assessment. But we've gotten good results against great teams and I think we should be reckoning our chances a bit more. Put it the other way, how many sides really want to face us at the moment? We are starting to look like a mean team to play against.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Difference between W. Ham away and at home is that you won't be there Gav ;-))

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Tossers....both of ya! ;))

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

WHam are one of those teams we tend to struggle against, though. Both home and away. We definitely have to let them score first, then send Bellamy and Dyer in for the kill in the 2nd half. ;-)

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

STOP IT - im getting to nervous thinking of this...gah

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

You also have to look at scumchesters games, they also have a relatively easy run in, I calculated they were good for 2 points more than us in the run in!!! :(

It will be very tight at the end - I predict it will not be decided till the last game of the season - scum at home to Chartlon? Us away to Southampton!!

It's going to be exciting!!! It is exciting!!!!!!!!

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Ken, Manure have Chewsea and Leeds away, Arsenal at home, less home games than away games AND at least four Champions League matches!

I wouldn't call that easy or easier, destiny is in OUR own hands.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Does anyone remember when we were 12 points clear in 1996 some bloke wrote to the Pink letters page saying he just knew something was going to go wrong and we wouldn't win the title because it always happened to the Toon!

I reckon we will win every remaining game by four clear goals thus gaining another 39 points giving us a total of 88. Arse will be second and Manure will endure a dreadful slump which will see them fall out of the European places completely. The Mackems and Boro will be relegated. Toon will also win the FA Cup beating Walsall in the final.

Is that sufficiently optimistic for you all?

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Whichever way you look at it, it's a nice position to be in.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

The re-start of the CL involving Man u , Arse, Pool is going to have a big bearing , that`s why you need big squads , but in all the above squads lurks the managers no 1 team , believe me SAF,Whinge,Holier have the problems, we at Newcastle have not one!!!!

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2002

Obviously this is a subject with varying opinions so what we really need here is an expert. Cometh the hour, cometh the man - step forward the doyenne of "expert summarisers" par excellence, the one and (fortunately) only Mark Lawrenson. A man who has made the word pundit his own - (and turned it into a term of abuse).

The moustachioed supremo of the talking-bollox-for-a-living brigade has put his Premiership forecasts in today's Daily Mirror. He forecasts all remaining fixtures of the top 4 and predicts the points finish, which is Manu 81, Arse 79, Pool 73, Toon 72. Of the 50 fixtures the top 4 have to play (that's less than 50 matches because a few games are amongst the top 4) Lawrenson predicts just 2 defeats, and they are both for the Toon at Liverpool and Southampton.

The Manu forecast is 9 wins and 3 draws (against Chelsea, Arse and Leeds)
Arse 9 wins 4 draws (Everton Toon, Spurs, Manu)
Pool 6 wins 6 draws
Toon 6 wins 5 draws (Sunderland, Arse, Blackburn Villa Derby) and 2 defeats.

So there you are then - I vote that Mark Lawrenson be the man to present the trophy to YBR in May. :-)

Bookies odds are :- MU 8-13, Arse 11-4, Pool 9-2, Toon 14-1 Chelsea 33, Leeds 40. Those Toon odds are very tasty considering we are in pole position at present.

-- Anonymous, February 05, 2002

My dad put a pound on 80/1 for the Toon to win the league a during pre season.

Put it on in a Sunderland bookmakers too, and got jeered. Oh how sweet it would be to go back and jeer them.

-- Anonymous, February 06, 2002