I've just been looking at our run-in game-by-game, and I think we have a "realistic" (on the basis that I wouldn't be surprised at any of the results I've pencilled in) chance of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses from the last 16 games, giving 30 more points and so a total of 72. Based on the average points in all the 38-game seasons of the Premiership, 72 points would give us 3rd place. Even in the highest-points-scoring season, 72 would have given us 4th place, and in the lowest-points-season (when we were 2nd equal with 68 points), we would have been 2nd. Which means Champions League (requiring a top 4 position) is within our capabilities. Looking at it from the scraping-into-the-UEFA-Cup viewpoint, (6th or 7th place?), we would need about 57 points in an average season and 61 in a high-points season. So on the pessimistic side we need about 19 points, 6 wins and a draw to secure a UEFA place. So home wins against Bolton, Southampton, Charlton & Everton and away wins at Leicester and Derby should get us into Europe. Shouldn't be too hard for the joint-table-toppers to achieve.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Answers

And if you look at the table now with Liverpool currently drawing with Arsenal at 1-1, then the Top Five are opening up a gap on the stragglers. We're 8 points ahead of the 6th team, 10 points ahead of 7th and 11 points ahead of 8th. It's going to be hard for any of those lesser teams (and that's what they are - Chelsea, Villa Tottenham) to overtake us and get up to the points they would need to get into the Champion's League or even UEFA. We just need plenty of draws in the next few internecine games between our fellow top 5'ers. And of the Top 6, we've played all our games against them except for Arsenal at home and liverpool away, while the others have got to play each other multiple times in the run-in.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Aye Barry, all we have to do is win ALL of our remaining games and score a bagfull more than Manure. Still early days mate, I personally am now looking for a top five finish and anything better will be really tasty gravy.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

I'm just looking for us to win our next match. :-)

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

And me not to lose it =)

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

My prediction spreadsheet (which simply looks at ability to score goals home and away) says we'll come second:

	Pts	GD
Man Utd	86	42
Newcastle	82	24
Arsenal	80	31
Leeds	69	20
Chelsea	68	21
Liverpool	58	9
Tottenham	58	7
Aston Villa	50	1
Sunderland	37	-16

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Thanks for that Barry, I was thinking of this earlier today and was going to look up how many points got you where last season. 9 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses sounds well within our capibilities. "There's only one Bobby Robson!"

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

It is interesting to note(!) that Manure's recent good run of form has coincided with the "break" in the Champions League games. During the break they have played their "proper" team in the Premership games. Is it not possible [she said offering a prayer to the Almighty] that come February when the Champions League kicks in again, we might see Manure stutter a little as they start to play their "second team" on Saturdays.

We can but hope!!

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Good point. Other top teams will start to struggle soon because of th champions league. Also I'd say we've got the easiest last 16 games out of the top 6.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Does this mean I need to stop hoping Manure get dumped out of the CL at the earliest opportunity? Oh, ok....I'll hope they stay in 'til the semi...then get dumped out. But only if we can manage an unbeaten run at the same time. ;-))

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

I think Jacko's got a good point about Man Utd playing their first team during the Euro Winter Break. Same thing's happening for instance in Italy where over-achievers Chievo are sliding back down in the Break, being overtaken by the Euro regulars. So that means next season when we are in Europe, we should aim to get knocked out pretty sharpish so that we don't run into the same problems as Man Utd this year? And who will be in our 2nd team that we'll play during the European season?

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

I suspect that this may be more of an issue for certain clubs than others: Man Utd have proven many times that they can attack three competitions on all fronts and acquit themselves relatively well in all of them. Last year, Leeds struggled when they were in both competitions and so did Chelsea the previous season (in both cases to such an extent that they only got UEFA places the following season). Whether Liverpool can carry on in both competitions remains to be seen, likewise Arsenal. This is why I think we'll have to buy fairly big in the summer IF we Do get into the Champions' League.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

ooooooooohhhhhhh just the thought of Champions League football next season....now stop it Sudden, think negative!

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

That's a very slippery slope you lot seem to be headed down !

Howay friends - in your heart of hearts you just know they're about to put together a record breaking losing streak. I suggest we all do ourselves a favour and go get someone to kick us in the guts now to save it happening later....

:O))

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2002

Lets take one game at a time. phoenix

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

gotta agree with phoenix but it is fine we are in a position to discuss , thats what it is all about on here. BTW Jacko makes a very valid point re CL , We can forcast all we like but football can be very cruel, cannot legislate, for injuries to key players, suspensions to a point can be controlled, referees crucial decisions, the woodwork now spread this amongst the top six!!, so one game at a time sweet YBR

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

Thinking about this, last season we lost at home to Everton and Charlton and drew (in an absolutely shocking display of shiteness and gutlessness) to Southampton at home, lost to Derby away and drew with Leicester away last season.

Buff's right: one game at a time.

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

I think we should forget the CL and do another season in the Intertoto to build up our stamina. ;-)

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

There's definite management potential in that remark, Ciara.

How'd you fancy taking over from monkeyheed ? :-{E}

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

I don't like bananas ;-)

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

I'm wondering what will happen to Peyter if we turn em over at the SoS in a few weeks time, which I can see happening.

They only live to beat us, so that really could be "la coup de grace".

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

It would make my year if we beat them at the SoS.

Especially if it was a record defeat of 6-0 or something fantastic like that, perhaps with a Shearer hat-trick.

However, they always seem to gain an extra shin kicking foot when they play us, so a 1-1 is the more likely result for me.

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

Some Toon fans on the TOTT board are trying to organise a "Reidy Must Stay" campaign on what they have rechristened "www.ReidyToGo.com".

Priceless!

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

He must stay, as if he is replaced by the time we play them they could have a new manager, who knows, Sunderland's name may even be big enough to tempt Sven Goran Eriksson out of the England job and back into club football.

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

I'd settle for that table softie

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002

The best thing about that table is that Man Utd are clear of us, not equal on goal difference.

It would be awful to lose the title on goal difference. (although we did nab that CL place a few years ago with that fine 5-0 win on the last day)

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2002