JPost

Kicking the ball into his own goal Analysis By Arieh O'Sullivan

(November 28) - The attack on Afula was doubly embarrassing for Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, because it reveals how little control he has and because a policeman from his Fatah faction participated.

His failure to rein in the terrorists is like kicking the ball into his own goal and is bound to put even more pressure on him when he meets this morning with US mediator Anthony Zinni, who told top defense officials last night he is interested "in deeds, not declarations."

It is a crucial day for Arafat, who has tried over the past 14 months to avoid revealing the actual level of his control, or lack of it, over the 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

It was clear that Arafat was not interested in the world seeing attacks inside Israel at this sensitive time. This kind of attack was a blow to America's latest bid for a cease-fire. The fact that Islamic Jihad was able to team up with not only a Fatah member, but a member of the PA's General Intelligence Service proves that there are loose cannon. It takes just one bomber or a pair of gunmen to embarrass Arafat. The question is how many are there?

Senior IDF officers said that once they were able to estimate the number of suicide bombers, but after 14 months of conflict and incitement, there is an endless well of them.

While the steps taken by the security forces have so far foiled attempts to smuggle car bombs into the country, the same cannot be said for halting gunmen. And gunmen who carry out attacks like those in Afula, and in Hadera a month ago, know they are suicide attacks.

The dilemma facing the defense establishment is how to retaliate or even whether to retaliate. The government may have scored diplomatic points by ordering its troops and tanks to pull back from Jenin, but by using this as a gesture to Zinni, it also puts the IDF in a bind when it comes to retaliation possibilities.

The government now faces the same sort of dilemma as when it decides to target someone. Is it cost effective? The government is fully justified in retaliating for the Afula attack and last night's fatal ambush in Gush Katif, but would it be wise politically, particularly after it has politicized the redeployment out of the "city of suicide bombers?"

Moreover, there is immense frustration in the IDF over striking empty buildings, which senior air force officers say harms deterrence. The sentiment now is that all attacks must draw blood.

Furthermore, no one in the IDF knows what kind of strike would bring down the PA, which in the current security assessment - depending on the day of the week - appears to be crumbling into chaos.

One thing is certain, however: If the PA security apparatus is not willing or unable to show its claws to defend the interests of the PA establishment, the PA is truly crumbling. And Zinni must be made aware of this.

-- Anonymous, November 28, 2001