(Did this so we can have all the current charts at the top of the thread)

Herald-Sun

Lower Florida Keys Evacuated

By CORALIE CARLSON : Associated Press Writer Nov 4, 2001 : 8:41 am ET

KEY WEST, Fla. (AP) -- With a speedier Hurricane Michelle closing in on western Cuba on Sunday, forecasters warned the lower Florida Keys would likely be hit by the storm's hurricane-force winds.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a hurricane warning for all of the Florida Keys, projecting that winds of 75 mph or more could reach the area on Sunday or Monday. High winds and heavy surf were already pounding the area's beaches.

"It's going to be close," said Stacy Stewart, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "They could easily get hurricane force winds and gusts."

Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Saturday, the same day everyone in Key West and other points west were ordered to leave the island chain.

Michelle, its top winds at 135 mph, was expected to weaken before it reached Florida and was not expected to strike the state directly. But forecasters warned that if the storm deviated north, the Keys and South Florida could be pelted with heavy rain and strong winds.

"We will start to see our winds increase and we'll probably see rainfall continue throughout the weekend and even into Monday," said meteorologist Krissy Williams.

A hurricane warning was in effect for western Cuba and a hurricane watch was issued for the northwestern and central Bahamas, forecasters said.

At 4 a.m. EST, Michelle's center was located near 20.4 north latitude, 83.1 west longitude, about 180 miles south of Havana, Cuba, and 80 miles south of the Isle of Youth.

Michelle's speed increased to nearly 10 mph Sunday, after hovering at around 3 mph most of the previous day.

The storm had probably peaked in intensity, as a trough coming across the Gulf of Mexico was producing disruptive shear on the hurricane, Stewart said.

In Key West on Saturday, usually crowded streets were almost deserted.

"I'm ready to run," candy store owner Terry McKenna said.

Cab driver Patrick DeL'isle was worried about the economic effects the storm will have on an already weakened tourism economy.

"I won't be making money for a whole week," he said. "For six days there will be no money, no business, no work."

For more information, the previous thread is here

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Answers

Wow!

I really hope that Michelle breaks up over Cuba and/or heads out to sea. That's a huge storm for this late in the season.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

wunderground.com

Hurricane Michelle Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 10:00 am EST on November 04, 2001

satellite images do not show a distinct eye as it had 24 hours ago. A NOAA reconnaissance plane has been in the eye of Michelle and the minimum pressure is 950 mb with 700 mb Max winds of 134 knots. Although this supports 120 knots at the surface...the step frequency microwave radiometer shows only about 100 knots. Initial intensity is kept at 115 knots as a compromise between these two values. The current large eye may contract before landfall over Cuba resulting in another round of intensification.

Fixes from the recon and radar from Cuba indicate that Michelle is moving toward northeast about 10 knots. The eastward moving upper-level trough continues to amplify over the central Gulf of Mexico. This feature will force Michelle to move toward the northeast with increasing forward speed. This is the scenario provided by most of the track models. Only the GFDL brings the core of the hurricane to Southeast Florida but this model has had a westward bias with this tropical cyclone.

On this track...the eye of the hurricane is passing near and to the east of the Isle of Youth and will make landfall near the Zapata peninsula on the south coast of central Cuba later today. It appears that the intense core of the hurricane will miss Havana City. Michelle is forecast to be near the central Bahamas on Monday.

Forecaster Avila

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Monday November 5, 2:27 AM

Powerful Hurricane Michelle lashes Cuba

By Andrew Cawthorne

HAVANA (Reuters) - Hurricane Michelle, potentially the worst storm to hit Cuba in half a century, lashed the island with torrential rain and fierce winds on Sunday as half a million people were moved into shelters.

Michelle, described by experts as an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane, gathered speed overnight and was packing winds of 135 mph (217 kph) as it churned north toward Cuba. It has killed 10 people, left 26 missing and made thousands homeless in Central America.

At midday (1700 GMT) the eye of the hurricane was passing by the Isle of Youth, 30 miles (48 km) off Cuba's southern coast, and taking aim at the southern Zapata Peninsula and the central provinces of Matanzas and Villa Clara, Cuba's Weather Institute said.

After crossing central Cuba during Sunday and probably into the early hours of Monday, Michelle is expected to veer northeast into the Florida Straits and toward the Bahamas, catching southern Florida a glancing blow.

A mandatory evacuation was ordered for the Florida Keys.

Since morning, torrential rains and 74 mph (119 kph) winds battered the Isle of Youth -- said to be the inspiration for Robert Louis Stevenson's classic novel "Treasure Island". Electricity was cut, and phone lines to the island went down mid-morning.

Having veered northeast overnight, Michelle was set to cross the centre of Cuba, and was expected to have a severe impact on Havana, which is next to Matanzas province.

Winds battering the capital had already brought down some trees and cables, as nervous residents stayed indoors. Waves up to 15 feet (five metres) high were hammering the southern coast.

EYE OF STORM APPROACHING

"It's coming right over us. The eye is getting closer ... it could even get stronger as it approaches us," the Cuban Weather Institute's chief meteorologist, Jose Rubiera.

Michelle, which brought flooding to Honduras, Nicaragua and Jamaica, was moving north at 12 mph (19 kph)

Civil Defense officials said more than 500,000 people had already been evacuated to safe shelters, and 625,000 animals also moved. They urged Cubans to stay at home and watch out for loose cables, the main cause of death in previous hurricanes.

"The priority is to save the lives of this revolutionary Cuban family," Civil Defense spokesman Astul Castellanos said.

At 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), Michelle's centre was about 30 miles (48 km) east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, and 140 miles (225 km) south of Havana, at latitude 21.3 north and longitude 82.1 west, according to the latest report from the U.S. National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

"This is going to be a very rough day for Cuba," said Edward Rappaport of the U.S. centre.

Cuban state television, devoted to hurricane preparations, showed images from 1932, when a hurricane flattened the unprepared coastal town of Santa Cruz del Sur and killed more than 3,000 people.

As a Category 4 hurricane, Michelle is capable of inflicting heavy damage on Cuba. But authorities were confident several days of preparations and the mass evacuation would minimize damage and prevent loss of life.

"We're calm, serene and secure," said President Fidel Castro, who in the past has personally directed Cuba's military-like hurricane operations.

FRANTIC PREPARATIONS

In Havana, home to 2 million of Cuba's 11 million inhabitants, residents on Saturday formed large lines to buy food and gasoline, cleaned debris off the streets, taped up the windows of their homes, tied down loose roofing and covered holes with boards. Thousands were evacuated from the dilapidated coastal capital's danger zones near the sea and in Old Havana.

"My house is ready, protected. The windows are nailed down. It looks like it's going to be a massive cyclone," said Mercedes Perez, 58, Sunday morning, in a building opposite Havana's sea-front Malecon.

In the beach resort of Varadero, a peninsula on the northern coast of Matanzas province, residents feared flooding.

"What we're all worried about is that the sea from the north and the south will rise up and flood the whole peninsula. Thank God, we're still here at the moment, but let's see what happens," one Varadero resident, Elida Sosa Librada, 58, said.

Hundreds of tourists were moved away from beach resorts. Most incoming international flights were suspended, as well as all domestic flights.

In the United States, authorities on Sunday ordered residents of the Florida Keys to evacuate as winds and rain began to lash the island chain. Tourists were ordered to leave on Saturday and the evacuation order for some 80,000 residents was extended from Key Largo, the gateway to the Keys, to Key West, the party town at the end of the line.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Good luck, Mailman!!

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

We had a good day. Saw the carpet man this morning. same color choices and the price was okay. Now, we'll see if he can install it tomorrow. LOL

We went shopping for food stuff. I got lots of junk food for me, and some celery sticks and carrots for the SO. [chuckling with concealed humor, barely]

We're having surf and turf tonight, steak and shrimp. Shrimp was huge, 5.99 a pound, but since we could be dead soon it doesn't matter. They were huge shrimp.

I'm eating my storm food, Doritos and French Onion Dip, so don't stand behind me for the next few days. LOL Bought some nuts, too. gotta have nuts in hand so you can laugh, ya know. [oh shit, now women will know why men grab their nuts all the time. ROTFL]

Feeling no pain right now. Got some soothing juice too.

Michelle will most likely miss us, so we can live it up for now. As I mentioned, we may die tomorrow.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Splurged, $5.99 a pound. Yep, those were the days! Man, it's sticker shock on jumbo shrimp in these inland cities!

I guess you won't be using any wine to cook the shrimp in, since you appear to have drunk it all, lolololol!

Did I ever send you the New Orleans Barbecued Shrimp recipe? (For which you don't need a barbecue.)

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Give me $5.99/pound shrimp!! It's up to $9 something around here and who knows how old. . . .

That's the one thing I miss about my travels to FL and LA -- I was buying fresh (not "jet fresh") shrimp and cooking it within hours of its being captured.

On the other hand, the beef and chicken were old and expensive.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Shrimp on the barbie, without the [hiccup~!] barbie?

How odd.

we had it Alfredeaux. Very spicy, and I don't go for spicy, but it was good. Two bowls.

Time for sleep, mesa tinks. Gotsa early morning todo list. And then later there isa work.

right now it is sideways raining outside. And it's windy, too. Too kewl!

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

OG made my point before I could: $5.99 a pound for jumbo shrimp would delight the hell out of me.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 2001

Published Monday, November 5, 2001

Worst of Michelle misses S. Florida

WARNING ISSUED IN BAHAMAS

BY AMY DRISCOLL, TERE FIGUERAS AND PHIL LONG adriscoll@herald.com

A still-powerful Hurricane Michelle cut a diagonal path of destruction through Cuba on Sunday night, sideswiped the Keys and Miami-Dade County and then took aim at the Bahamas early today.

Most Miami-Dade schools, colleges and universities are closed today. The county also evacuated one flood-prone portion of southwest Miami-Dade and curtailed government services in preparation for winds that could gust up to 45 mph near Biscayne Bay.

Broward County closed its schools, but government offices remained open.

The Upper Keys, closest to Michelle's center, braced for the strongest winds -- projected at 45 to 55 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph. A storm surge of up to three feet was expected in parts of the low-lying island chain. Monroe County schools and government offices were closed.

Gov. Jeb Bush, who declared a state of emergency on Saturday as the hurricane approached, expressed concern for Cuba and the Bahamas but said he was grateful for Florida's near miss.

``Selfishly, it's great to have the storm miss our state,'' Bush said. ``It's still a very powerful storm. . . . Clearly, there's going to be some impact.''

Bands of rain from the hurricane spread through South Florida -- up to six inches in the Keys, less in Miami-Dade and Broward.

Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas warned of possible flooding, even though canal levels were lowered in preparation for the hurricane. ``We've done a good job at draining canals,'' he said, ``but we could get significant flooding.''

He ordered the evacuation of the 8 1/2 Square Mile Area in the East Everglades, where the ground already is saturated with water. In flood-prone Sweetwater, 25,000 sandbags were being distributed to help keep storm water out of homes. There were no reports of flooding late Sunday.

Several shelters opened in public schools Sunday night. Florida International University opened a shelter on its West Miami-Dade campus for Monroe County residents.

Some good news: The worst of the weather was predicted to clear out quickly. Michelle was expected to gain speed moving toward the Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The center of the storm will pass near Nassau later today.

ARRIVAL IN CUBA

The hurricane roared into Cuba on Sunday afternoon, a major storm with winds of at least 130 mph. It made landfall about 70 miles from Havana, where more than 560,000 people had been evacuated.

Michelle entered Cuba as a tightly wrapped, Category 4 hurricane and exited as an elongated, less-organized storm weakened by its trip over land and by shearing crosswinds. The next stop: Andros island early today.

Forecasters stressed that since the storm will pass about 130 miles southeast of Miami, any slight wobble could bring bands of stronger winds into Miami-Dade through today.

Hurricane force winds extended from the eye about 50 miles; tropical storm force-winds extended 175 miles.

Preparations in Miami-Dade were varied Sunday. Some residents stocked up on water and gas, but for many, worries about relatives in Cuba dominated.

Mabel Pino stacked plywood on a dolly at the Home Depot at 3030 SW Eighth St. to protect her home, but Michelle's approach to South Florida wasn't her greatest concern.

``I'm not worried for us, but for our relatives in Cuba,'' said Pino, who was buying supplies with her 12-year-old son and 2-year-old daughter.

In the Bahamas, government officials prepared for Michelle's onslaught this afternoon: canceling flights, closing schools, opening shelters and ordering some evacuations.

Bahamas Air, the national carrier, sent its entire fleet to Orlando on Sunday evening.

``We hope this thing weakens when it's through with Cuba, although we expect that there will be some damage when it hits the Bahamas,'' said Basil Dean, chief meteorologist for the Bahamas.

Red Cross director Mariana Glinton said she expects few will take advantage of the newly opened shelters.

``I hope they do evacuate, but my experience in over 20 years with the Red Cross is that Bahamians do not leave their homes, '' she said. ``All we can do is ask. We cannot force them out of their homes.''

Broward County officials urged residents to take a ``common-sense approach'' to the storm by staying in if possible and by securing boats and mobile homes.

HOPEFUL OUTLOOK

``We're going to be on the north side of the storm, which means it will be weaker,'' Broward County Administrator Roger Desjarlais said. ``This is still a dangerous storm. But if it stays on track, Broward will be OK.''

Parks, libraries, state and county courts and mass transit in Broward will operate on normal schedules today, though schools were closed. The U.S. Coast Guard restricted ship movement at Port Everglades from 10 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. today out of concern about high winds. No departures or arrivals of commercial vessels would be allowed during the 12-hour period, said port spokeswoman Ellen Kennedy.

The biggest worry in Broward was the continuing erosion of some beaches. Over the past two weeks, beaches in Deerfield Beach and Hollywood lost 60 to 75 percent of their sand, said Tony Carper, director of Broward County Emergency Management.

``The beaches have been taking quite a beating,'' Desjarlais said. ``This storm certainly exacerbates the problem.''

At the Dania Beach Sea Fair marina, boaters secured their vessels and removed canopies, anticipating high winds. Crews added fenders to their vessels to prevent damage from rising seas. Others were boarding up doors and taping windows.

``You can never be too safe,'' said Gino Angella with his wife, Cathy, outside their 22-foot boat Sunday afternoon. ``With these hurricanes, one little turn can make a difference. You have to stay vigilant.''

In Key West, Mayor Jimmy Weekly asked all businesses to voluntarily close their doors. Many of the popular hangouts already had, except for 24-hour eateries such as Denny's and Waffle House, which had a steady flow of customers.

Flights out of Key West International Airport were grounded, and city buses stopped running at 4 p.m. On Duval Street -- usually the main party zone -- businesses that had been busy the previous night were boarded up.

Some merchants spray-painted messages across their shutters. One read: ``Hurricane Michelle -- We Hope You Miss Us. We Sure Won't Miss You.''

Monroe County Emergency Management Director Billy Wagner said too many Keys residents chose to weather the storm, instead of obeying an evacuation order issued at 4 a.m. Sunday but lifted later in the day as stronger winds made travel dangerous.

``I am not pleased with the number of people who responded to the evacuation order, especially considering a major hurricane was moving in our general direction,'' Wagner said. ``One of these days we are going to be clobbered.''

John Gilmar, stopping at a gas station in Tavernier, made the windblown trek from Key West aboard his BMW motorcycle, heading back to Jacksonville from a Jimmy Buffett convention cut short by the storm.

TRYING EXPERIENCE

``All the sane people left Saturday,'' Gilmar said. He crossed the Seven Mile Bridge in heavy winds on his motorcycle, he said.

``You just want to pull over and call your mother,'' he said. ``At one point I was thinking I bit off more than I could chew.''

In Islamorada, firefighters spent the weekend knocking on doors at trailer parks, houseboats and homes in low-lying areas, warning people about the storm, said William A. Wagner III, chief of Islamorada's fire department.

Most people were cooperative, Wagner said, but more than a few stayed.

``People tend to pretend they're meteorologists,'' he said. ``We can advise them, but we can't force them.''

-- Anonymous, November 05, 2001

Well, michelle has missed us, nipples and all.

Guess we get our carpet today.

-- Anonymous, November 05, 2001