Gary North's REALITY CHECK

Number 87 October 29, 2001

[The importance of what I cover in this issue speaks for itself: bioterrorism. I have included URL's to the evidence I am relying on, so that you can verify anything that sounds exaggerated. I am not trying to exaggerate this story. I am trying to figure out how this nation can possibly deal with the threats that now confront us. I give you permission to send this issue to others, or to post it on a Web site, just so long as all of the URL's are included.]

DARK WINTER'S DARK MESSAGE

If the device that exploded in 1993 under the World Trade Center had been nuclear, or had effectively dispersed a deadly pathogen, the resulting horror would have exceeded our ability to describe it. Such an act of catastrophic terrorism would be a watershed event in American history. It could involve loss of life and property unprecedented in peacetime and undermine America's fundamental sense of security, as did the Soviet atomic bomb test in 1949. Like Pearl Harbor, this event would divide our past and present into a before and after. The United States might respond with draconian measures, scaling back civil liberties, allowing wider surveillance of citizens, detention of suspects, and use of deadly force. More violence could follow, either further terrorist attacks or U.S. counterattacks.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS (Nov/Dec 1998), p. 81

FOREIGN AFFAIRS is the publication of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). It may be the most influential academic publication on earth. In an article, "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger," three authors, including the head of the CIA (then -- not today), made the assessment you have just read.

What saved us in 1993 was the relative incompetence of the terrorists, who parked their van-bomb in the wrong location in the tower's parking garage, though wrong only by a few yards, according to the late Conrad Chester, who for 30 years ran the civil defense library at Oak Ridge National Laboratories. If the bomb had exploded in the right location, 60,000 people would have died in a matter of minutes.

There is no doubt that the authors of the 1998 article were correct about the potential watershed nature of that near-event. Their prediction of watershed status was fulfilled on September 11, 2001, with the very same target. Far fewer people died than would have been the case in 1993, had the attackers been a few yards more competent, but the 2001 event will surely be in U.S. history textbooks in a century or 200 years.

The three authors' predictions of what might follow this watershed event are now being fulfilled, day by day. The signing of the Anti-terrorist law last Friday surely qualifies as a prediction fulfilled with respect to surveillance and the loss of civil liberties. It is safe to say that once the Office of Homeland Security (or whatever they will call it) is funded, we will never recover the liberties we legally enjoyed last Thursday.

THE DARK WINTER WAR GAME

On June 22-23, 2001, a privately funded team of experts, including former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, participated in a war game. It was held at Andrews Air Force Base. The game involved the hypothetical biological weapons attack on Oklahoma City. The attackers use smallpox.

The game was limited to the U.S. government's response to the attack over a two-week period. The game produced results that are horrifying.

The game was organized by the ANSER organization's Institute for Homeland Security. Interesting: this is the same name initially selected by President Bush for his proposed Cabinet-level agency. The organization has publishes THE JOURNAL OF HOMELAND SECURITY.

http://www.homelandsecurity.org/journal

The game assumed this international background: an agent of Osama bin Laden has just been arrested by the Russians. He had been trying to buy biological weapons produced by the USSR. Meanwhile, Saddam Hussein is massing troops on Kuwait's border. There is growing tension between Communist China and Taiwan. So, nobody knows who the perpetrator of the attack might be. The game's participants were assumed to by members of the National Security Council. The first meeting of the NSC is on December 9. Let the game begin!

The first outbreak of smallpox is reported in Oklahoma City. This is reported on December 9, the day of the NSC meeting. By the end of the day, there are 34 cases. Other cases are reported in Georgia (9) and Pennsylvania (7). The U.S. air transportation network has begun to do its work in spreading the disease.

The game considers what the government could do to slow the spread of the disease. By December 22, assuming only the initial attack in Oklahoma City, there are 16,000 cases and 1,000 deaths in 25 states. At that point, the game ended.

The team made estimates of what would happen next. Worldwide, one week later, there would be 300,000 victims, with one-third of them dead.

http://www.hopkins-biodefense.org/lessons.html

A chart on the expected spread of the disease indicates that by Feb. 6, three million people would have been infected worldwide, with one million deaths. This document warns, "These numbers are highly speculative" (p. 44). But close enough for semi-government work, I suspect.

http://www.hopkins-biodefense.org/DARK%20WINTER.pdf

(This is a PDF file: slow to download, slow to go from page to page. The key findings are on pp. 42-43.)

On July 18, Congressional hearings were held on the results of this war game.

http://www.house.gov/reform/ns/web_resources/briefing_memo_july_23.htm

Here was Sam Nunn's assessment:

And there are many tradeoffs. One of the biggest: We have 12 million vaccines; that's enough for one out of every 23 Americans. Who do we decide to vaccinate?

Other tradeoffs are: Do you take power from the Governors and federalize the National Guard? Do you seize hotels to convert them to hospitals? Do you close borders and block all travel? What level of force do you use to keep someone sick with smallpox in isolation? Do you keep people known or thought to be exposed quarantined in their homes? Do you guarantee 2.5 million doses of vaccine to the military; or do you first cover all health care providers? Do you take strong measures that may protect health, but could undermine public support or destroy the economy?

And finally: How do you talk to the public in a way that is candid, yet prevents panic -- knowing that panic itself can be a weapon of mass destruction?

There were no agreed-upon answers, nor will there be. The government would wing it. And millions of Americans would probably die within a year, as well as tens of millions of non-Americans. The great scourge of man, smallpox, would be on the loose again.

The fears of chemical weapons seem overblown to me. But the fears of biological weapons have underestimated the threat.

We cannot scientifically put probability numbers on the likelihood of an attack. We also cannot know how skilled the attackers might be -- "1993 tower bombers" vs. the "2001 plane bombers." But the terrorists' main limiting factor is not money. As far as an aerosol-based anthrax attack is concerned, a good microbiologist could pull it off with $250,000 or less. Once launched, the effects could be catastrophic, and not just the death toll. It would affect the delivery of basic goods and services.

TRUSTING THE STATE

Last Friday evening, I watched the British Broadcasting Corporation's evening international news show. Our local PBS affiliate runs this broadcast, since PBS doesn't offer a late-evening news show. I occasionally watch the show to see what the BBC, a State-funded operation, thinks its high-brow audience is interested in viewing. On Friday, it was another AAA show: Afghanistan- American-Anthrax.

The show had a video clip of a meeting of U.S. Postal Service employees in Washington, D.C. Another anthrax letter had rolled through. This time, the Supreme Court had been the target. A female postal worker was screaming at the managers about safety. "You haven't done anything to protect us!" or words to that effect. A beleaguered manager replied: "You can't see this stuff. You can't smell it. What are we supposed to do?" or words to that effect.

There is no way to reconcile these two opinions. The worker was correct: nothing significant is being done to protect her and her colleagues. Management's representative was also correct: nobody knows what to do.

The BBC broadcast did reveal that an analysis of the most recent packet of spores indicates that a Ph.D. in microbiology must have done the work. This indicates that the story is moving away from a theory of home-brewed anthrax by "right wing militia" or Al Quaida terrorists. The earlier version indicated that this was amateur night terrorism. The new version is scarier: an educated professional is now involved.

Note: the unconfirmed and wholly fact-free speculative theory about American right-wing terrorists who may be behind the recent anthrax attacks was originally offered an article by Jessica Stern, of the Council on Foreign Relations, "The Prospect of Domestic Bioterrorism." It was published in a special 1999 issue of EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, published by the U.S. government's Centers for Disease Control (CDC). She referred to neo-Nazi groups as the most likely biological terrorists. She made one brief reference to bin Laden in a paragraph devoted to a neo-Nazi organization.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/stern.htm

There aren't sufficient supplies of preventative inoculation materials to protect the American public. A few workers are getting the Bayer Corporation's Cipro; other workers want the drug. Last week, U.S. Health Secretary Tommy Thompson announced a deal: the U.S. will buy Cipro at a discount price of under $1 per tablet. At present, the wholesale price is $4.60/tablet. -- $1.80 for the government.

The current target is enough tablets to treat 12 million people for 60 days. At present, the limit is two million people.

This information comes from the BBC.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1617000/1617235.stm

What about the rest of us? Sorry; maybe later.

Over the weekend, one public health official in New Jersey suggested that other, more common, less expensive antibiotics will do the job. But "doing the job" assumes that the area under attack is contained -- inside a building, with a limited number of potential victims.

This raises the question of anthrax delivered by aerosol. What if a terrorist group releases a minivan full of the spores downwind from a major city? In the air, the deadly spores are tasteless and odorless. No one will know until it's too late. Unless they have already been inoculated, many people will die before public health officials know that an attack has been made on the local population.

And then what?

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A PROFESSIONAL'S DEATH-TOLL ESTIMATE

Dr. Michael Osterholm was for years the epidemiologist for the state of Minnesota. In his book, LIVING TERRORS: WHAT AMERICA NEEDS TO KNOW TO SURVIVE THE COMING BIOTERRORIST CATASTROPHE (Delacorte, 2000), he writes:

As I will show, an attack with a highly contagious agent like smallpox could kill hundreds of thousands of people and could travel from city to city as easily as people do. Even a microbe like anthrax that doesn't spread from person to person could easily kills more than 100,000. We are, in other words, at the brink of a new age: what some experts call catastrophic terrorism (p. xix).

His chapter, "Tools of the Trade," covers the technology of delivering a killer virus or spore. As he writes, "a low-tech outdoor release of pathogens by plane or spray truck . . . is far easier to accomplish and could infect multitudes" (p. 104). D. A. Henderson, who ran the World Health Organization's program to eradicate smallpox in the environment (other than laboratories), says: "Even groups with modest finances and basic training in biology and engineering, could develop, should they wish, an effective weapon at little cost" (p. 105). It doesn't take Iraq to fund this.

His book covers several biological weapons agents. The worst by far is smallpox. He takes it seriously as a weapon of choice. He is not alone.

I was inoculated against smallpox. That shows how old I am. Old enough to remember the Edsel. Old enough to remember the Tucker. Old enough so than my smallpox vaccination no longer protects me, and hasn't for decades.

I am also old enough to remember a photograph in a long-since out-of-print high school biology textbook: a man whose face had been scarred by smallpox. The hideousness of that face has stayed with me for over 40 years.

How real is the smallpox bioterrorism threat? From the point of view of its effects, socially devastating.

In the June 2 issue of WORLD, a cover story went into detail about bioterrorism. The author interviewed a specialist at Johns Hopkins University's Center for Civilian Biodefense. I'm glad that such an organization exists. I am not glad about what that organization has concluded.

"You can't see a fermenter, or anything that you would need to make a biological weapon, via satellites," Ms. O'Toole pointed out. "It is going to be hard to see a biological weapon, it is going to be hard to track it before it's used, and it is going to be very hard to interdict before it's released," Ms. O'Toole told a gathering of policymakers in Washington last year.

This may sound apocalyptic, but a wide range of medical experts and scientists take the threat seriously. Johns Hopkins, whose research teams pioneered the smallpox vaccine, hosts smallpox war games to test whether medical communities are prepared to deal with a sudden outbreak. In a simulated terrorist attack conducted in 1999, health workers could not halt the spread of the disease. More than 15,000 hypothetical cases developed within two months.

Even at cutting-edge facilities like Johns Hopkins, reports Ms. O'Toole, it would be hard to treat 100 patients suddenly needing isolation and special care. . . .

The author offers this assessment:

It can remain dormant for 14 days, then victims show symptoms that begin with sudden high fever, headache, vomiting, and stiffness. A rash that develops into painful blisters and can lead to permanent scarring follows this. In the worst cases, smallpox leads to death within three or four days. Between one-third and one-half of victims die without vaccination, which must be given within the first days of infection (often before symptoms appear) to be effective. The disease scars or blinds most of those who do survive. In the past, one smallpox victim could infect up to 50 others. No known treatment exists for smallpox.

http://www.worldmag.com/world/issue/06-02-01/cover_1.asp

Dr. Tara O'Toole has written a frightening essay on how a terrorist smallpox attack could paralyze this country. For those of you who think I am exaggerating, I suggest that you click through and print out her hypothetical 30-day scenario. It was published in a CDC journal. Then read it. Get out your yellow highlighter. You will want it.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/otoole.htm

Think of this word: "Quarantine." When was the last time it was applied to an entire city in the United States? Think of its economic effects on a city. Those quarantined would have to be vaccinated. But is any region's public health system prepared to do this with 80,000 people, as the article suggests might be necessary? Not today.

This kind of expert information is readily available on the Web, but hardly American believes that a scenario like this is realistic. That's because it is all too realistic. There is no known defense against this. We are as helpless to this kind of attack as residents of Kabul are to U.S. bombing raids. The difference is, so far we have not had a sufficiently dedicated, skilled, and funded attacker. It will only take one.

There is today no reliable, safe smallpox vaccine available to the general public. There may be enough old vaccine in the United States for 15 million people, assuming the supplies still work. Samples have not been tested in several years. The number of useful units is probably closer to 7 million. This vaccine is still the old cowpox-based vaccine, a strategy which goes back to the 18th century. The vials are 25 years old. (LIVING TERRORS, p. 18).

Dr. Osterholm says that he doesn't think universal vaccination is necessary. He thinks that we must have large reserves of vaccine to deal with specific regional outbreaks. But there has to be an organized program to produce and distribute the vaccines to public heath systems. There must also be training of public health professionals to deal with mass vaccination after an attack. Such a comprehensive program will not be cheap, nor can it be organized overnight. The response must be rapid. The response program must be begun now.

There is not a public word about this from the President. No such campaign is visible. Congressional spending bills on everything imaginable are being promoted in the name of anti-terrorism, but not a bill on the one thing the government has a moral obligation and the Constitutional authority to do: defend this nation against an attack, which now includes biological warfare.

For a campaign to be successful, Americans would have to be persuaded. The persuasion would involve fear. To scare voters about anything that is really a threat is generally not politically correct. The public today is being told that we can pay for this war on terrorism by going out and spending on consumer goods. We are not only going to spend ourselves rich (Keynesianism), we are going to spend ourselves safe. This attitude must change if an effective public health response is to be put in place, city by city, before an attack takes place. We see no hint of any such change in presentation by the government.

But how likely is an attack? What person would unleash a weapon that is universal in scope? Smallpox doesn't care where you live or where you worship. So far, no one has used such a weapon. No nation has vaccinated its people. For a government to vaccinate a nation would indicate that its leader may be planning a smallpox attack, which I suspect is one reason why the U.S. government no longer vaccinates for smallpox. It's a biological version of Mutual Assured Destruction. That's why Nixon shut down the U.S. biological weapons research facility in 1969. Inoculating Americans would be like violating the ABM Treaty. It would de-stabilize the balance of terror.

Most Americans are not bothered much about these threats. They watch TV, but the anthrax reports do not scare people. The reports only fascinate them. The government will protect them, they think. Yet, day by day, terrorists are sending us a message in the U.S. mails. They can kill people. They can shut down offices for weeks at a time, while a handful of public health employees dressed in spore-resistant suits and masks spray the inside of the building.

I realize that these envelope attacks are mainly nuisances except for the handful of people who have died. But it's not the envelope-delivered attacks that are the problem. It's aerosol-delivered attacks (LIVING TERRORS, p. 12).

I now ask you to do something that will take you some time. If you're at work, don't read all of the following article. Wait until you get home. But download the article now, and print it out. It's by Richard Preston, author of THE HOT ZONE. It was published in THE NEW YORKER (July 12, 1999). It's called, "The Demon in the Freezer."

I'm asking you to read the first two pages. If this doesn't get your attention, then skip the rest of it.

You may want to skip pages 4-6, on the descriptions of what happened in the last outbreak, in 1972 in Yugoslavia. I skimmed these pages very fast. Some things you just don't need to know.

I offer this statistic, from page 3. In the 20th century, the second half of which was generally smallpox- free, the disease killed at least 300 million people.

You are no longer immune, if you ever were. Neither am I.

I also offer this statistic, provided by D. A. Henderson, the man whose World Health Organization team eradicated smallpox except for two research laboratories: the CDC's and Russia's (we hope). He says that an outbreak of 100 cases in any U.S. city would require the inoculation of 100 million Americans.

http://cryptome.org/smallpox-wmd.htm

LIVING TERRORS recommends this article (p. 197). Yet the author of LIVING TERRORS says that he doesn't think all of us need to be vaccinated. He actually recommends against it. As for me, I want to be vaccinated. Now. But it's not possible, nor is it likely to be possible until after the disease has become an epidemic. Then it will be too late for this visit of the demons. This is because of the rate at which the virus spreads. Preston describes this:

A rising tide of smallpox typically comes in fourteen-day waves -- a wave of cases, a lull down to zero, and then a much bigger wave, another lull down to zero, then a huge and terrifying wave. The waves reflect the incubation periods, or generations, of the virus. Each wave or generation is anywhere from ten to twenty times as large as the last, so the virus grows exponentially and explosively, gathering strength like some kind of biological tsunami. This is because each infected person infects an average of ten to twenty more people.

MEANWHILE, BACK IN AFGHANISTAN. . . .

Meanwhile, the air war is not going well in Afghanistan. Our satellites can't locate bin Laden. Thousands of Pakistani civilians are now crossing the border into Afghanistan, armed, to fight on the side of the Taliban against U.S. troops.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia_china/story.jsp?story=101774

The jihad has begun. Every day that our bombs fall on Afghan civilians in what remains of their cities, the jihad's recruiting gets easier. "The action is the reaction."

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Answers

THE bible ,tell's of a time of plague's & pestilence,such as the world has never known!!

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), October 29, 2001.

I'm only concerned about nuclear disasters and things that are contagious. Anthrax is bad but nothing in comparison to the above.

-- Boswell (fundown@thefarm.net), October 29, 2001.

So many errors in this "essay" I don't know where to begin. So I'll just offer this opinion...

Gary North is a slimeball parasitic snakeoil salesman.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), October 29, 2001.

BOS, never before'in the history of mankind!!!!

we are THERE!!

like JESUS, said''fear not what man can do,but fear WHAT THE LORD CAN DO!!this[present] world[sytem]is history!!!!

''believe[rely-trust]on the LORD JESUS,,and thou shalt be saved''

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), October 29, 2001.

BUDDY, don,t worry bout what gary north say's.WORRY about what LORD has WARNED about!!!

there is/will be a generation,that see's ALL the warning's happening at 1 time.

the ''battle of the AGE'S is about to begin''

this is not a good TIME, too be smart-assing with GOD!!!

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), October 29, 2001.

Gee, al-d, from Gary North's writings it is apparent he does not agree with your daily message.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), October 29, 2001.

Don't be too concerned Al, I believe what you say and I think a lot of others are grabbing for that dusty Bible. It's been a long time since Sunday School days! I don't worry about to much of what lays ahead except possible pain and suffering of family and grandchildren but I guess that's what most people fear also!

-- Boswell (fundown@thefarm.net), October 29, 2001.

Buddy;

So many errors in this "essay" I don't know where to begin.

You are being too kind to the author. Whole academic careers have started with less working material. But you are probably correct; my experience is that the author is never correct and not worth worrying about.

Best Wishes,,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Thank you Z. I assure you I have never been worried about what Gary North says, only about whether other people worry after reading his bullshit.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), October 29, 2001.

hi BOS, no i never worry,about the mocker's & scoffer's,they are so PREDICTABLE!!

in fact they increase my faith,because the BIBLE has alot to say about them.

even common-sense,would make 1 -wonder[how long will GOD let this evil go on]man [in] his PRIDE, has no CLUE, as to GOD'S TIMING!!

AND THE MANY MANY warning's!!!

yes BOS, get out that dusty old BIBLE, and seek,answer's,for you & your's. give them that ROCK, to stand on,,it will be so important,in the day's to come.

''a wise man SEE'S the evil day approaching-and prepare's for it'' just like GOD, had the hebrew's put the blood of the sacrificial lamb-on there doorpost's,-and the death angel-passed over=whoever had APPLIED the blood[type] of CHRIST'S BLOOD, for believer's!!!

YOU, are the spiritual-leader,for your family[priest] you can APPLY the blood,for you & your's.

GOD will honor your=faith.

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), October 29, 2001.

Buddy, if there are too many errors in this essay for you to address all of them, can you at least address 2 or 3? Thanks

-- (lurker@lurking.scared), October 29, 2001.

OK, I hate reading North's crap (again at that!), but I'll give it a try:

Error #1:

What if a terrorist group releases a minivan full of the spores downwind from a major city?

If one to release a minivan downwind from a major city, no one in the city would be affected. The term he should have used is upwind.

Error #2:

Another anthrax letter had rolled through.

Where does he get this? This is unsubstantiated. The only thing proven up to this point is that anthrax escaped from letters already processed. There have been no further reports (yet) of other letters getting through.

(Maybe) Error #3: The BBC broadcast did reveal that an analysis of the most recent packet of spores indicates that a Ph.D. in microbiology must have done the work.

While I didn't see this specific broadcast, a quote has been circulating in the media to the effect that, "a Ph.D. in microbiology could have done this," implying that it doesn't take a huge organization to pull it off. As usual, Gary paraphrases and misinterprets (perhaps purposely) to fit his purpose; which is to get more people to buy his stuff.

(Maybe) Error #4: Al Quaida

I've never seen this spelling anywhere else. Does he just make this stuff up?

Error #5: Old enough so than my smallpox vaccination no longer protects me, and hasn't for decades.

Another Gary trick. The fact is no one knows. The old vaccination maybe effective, maybe not. By the way, you don't have to be that old. They stopped vaccinating around 1980 (don't quote me on the date).

Not error necessarily, but pure speculation:

But how likely is an attack? What person would unleash a weapon that is universal in scope? Smallpox doesn't care where you live or where you worship. So far, no one has used such a weapon. No nation has vaccinated its people. For a government to vaccinate a nation would indicate that its leader may be planning a smallpox attack, which I suspect is one reason why the U.S. government no longer vaccinates for smallpox. It's a biological version of Mutual Assured Destruction. That's why Nixon shut down the U.S. biological weapons research facility in 1969. Inoculating Americans would be like violating the ABM Treaty. It would de-stabilize the balance of terror.

Is Gary North a conspiracy theorist or what?

And finally:

Meanwhile, the air war is not going well in Afghanistan. Our satellites can't locate bin Laden. Thousands of Pakistani civilians are now crossing the border into Afghanistan, armed, to fight on the side of the Taliban against U.S. troops.

According to who? This is his opinion. And "thousands of Pakistani civilians" is an exaggeration, according to reports I have seen. And believe it or not, I don't think the Taliban stands a chance against our military. The current bombing is only a prelude.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), October 29, 2001.

God,

I hereby formally repent all my sins, all my lecherous thoughts. I will sign a notarized affadavit to this effect and mail it to you.

What is you addy?

-- (lars@indy.net), October 29, 2001.

Smallpox is survivable. The unmodified version, anyway. We have family stories about it. From what I understand, giving the smallpox vaccine to someone with an immune system deficiency will cause that person to develop sores that don't heal. I also understand that the virus can be transferred from the vaccination site to other parts of the body or to someone else, possibly by scratching. If this is true, it's probably a good idea to avoid giving the vaccination to the general population unless and until until it's actually needed.

Dark Winter was reported on our news back when they played the scenario. The disease got out of control in spite of border closings. It sounds like it can be spread like a cold or flu, so I don't see how it could be contained easily once it starts up. The death rate in earlier times was bound to have been higher due to poorer hygiene and other serious health problems such as TB.

We're due for another pandemic flu, which we also have family stories about. (Ask me, c'mon, ask me.) I'm more concerned about an extremely powerful flu bug than smallpox.

-- helen (a@pox.upon.us?), October 29, 2001.

The Moslems aren't going to release any smallpox, our gov't might, but not slimeball Moslems because the pox will kill just as many of their American members as it will Americans. If you want the full rant, go hang out on Dennis' board when it comes back up.

Helen is correct. There is more to fear from the flu. I would also add food poisoning to the list. Bacteria, such as e. coli, could easily wreck our holiday season if we don't guard our food supplies.

-- (anotherbrick@the.wall), October 29, 2001.

Helen:

Smallpox is survivable. The unmodified version, anyway.

This is a specific technical question. I keep reading about the modification of the virus. Please specify the gene and the base changes which would lead to increased virulence. This is just crap spread on the web. I can't tell you how to modify it to make the vaccine less effective let alone how to make it more virulent. If it is known it hasn't been published. There seems to be a general feeling that these secret operations have all of the brilliant scientists who can do these things. Bullshit; the person in charge of the program in Iraq got her degree from an PhD student from here. I have some idea of what they can do.

To convince me to become hysterical, you will need to provide some data.

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Well, Z, I wasn't trying to make anyone hysterical. I would think my comments on smallpox would have the opposite effect.

Ken Alibek told Diane Sawyer some years ago on camera that the Soviet Union had crossed ebola with smallpox. He referred to the enhanced version of smallpox as having a "greater than 100%" fatality rate.

The survivable smallpox that I referred to was the type suffered by my family about one hundred years ago. The 'regular' kind, if you will. In fact, some of my family members survived it and were not horribly scarred. One member had 'weak eyes' after that. The way my family defined 'weak eyes' was that the person needed glasses for the first time after the smallpox infection.

-- helen (poo@on.you.Z), October 29, 2001.

Helen:

Not trying to be mean here but Ken is just trying to make a few bucks. Nothing wrong with that. Anyone who knows about the genome structure of Ebola and Smallpox is probably rolling on the floor laughing. You can't do those things with a virus.

If you want a lecture in viral replication, I can provide one. You would probably go to sleep. :))) I could even make it a retrovirus. How about CaMV with six known expressed genes. Totally, sequenced, and no information on how to increase virulence. Oh well.

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Z, I'd really rather read one of your wonderful menus. :)

-- helen (take@back.the.poo), October 29, 2001.

Helen: Do ya think Z knows anything about backing with rock salt?

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), October 29, 2001.

Jeez...BAKING. These "B" words throw me sometimes.

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), October 29, 2001.

Anita, one may only hope...

-- helen (drooling@already.here), October 29, 2001.

"Modified" weaponized super-bugs are developed artificially the same way nature itself develops them naturally. You take a normal bug and grow it in a suitably nourishing media. Some of these bugs are then placed in a media containing minute amounts of antibiotics (like Cipro, or antiseptics or sporicides, etc, etc). Due to natural genetic variations present in any organic system a few of these bugs will survive in the new "less-than-ideal" growth media, even though the vast majority will die off. The natural "survivors" are harvested and the process is repeated with progressively stronger "hostile growth media" and different "hostile agents" in the growth media. This goes on and on until you have a bug that simply shrugs off antibiotics (or what have you) like they are not even there. It's evolution and natural selection in action. This has always been a normal "problem" with all antibiotics: if you use any antibiotic too much the bugs learn to ignore and survive it, and sometimes even thrive in them. Nothing at all new there.

Viruses are another matter. If we ever had any power at all over viruses we would not have to suffer the common cold, the flu, or AIDS. Viruses are just plain tough.

Small pox is not actually "guaranteed survivable" at all, in the sense Helen seems to be suggesting. It makes some people very sick, but does not kill them, but others die from it outright after the very first exposure. The danger with it is, of course, it's extreme infectiousness - humans spread it to each other with amazing effectiveness, no matter what precautions are taken.

Botulinum toxin is "the single most poisonous substance known." You don't recover from this until you actually grow new motor neurons, if you survive it at all. Enough said there.

Tularemia is "is one of the most infectious pathogenic bacteria known, requiring inoculation or inhalation of as few as 10 organisms to cause disease. It is considered to be a dangerous potential biological weapon because of its extreme infectivity, ease of dissemination, and substantial capacity to cause illness and death. F. tularensis is so infective that examining an open culture plate can cause infection" Also enough said, I think.

Anthrax is a fairly benign bug, really. It's around all the time, and usually does very little harm to humans.

The way that it's currently being used against us is also quite mysterious and odd, I think. It's almost like whoever is doing this has intentionally chosen to do it as ineffectively as can possibly be imagined, thus far.

It's like if you had a nuclear bomb and you chose to use it to kill people by simply dropping it on them (dropping - not exploding) from the roof of a one story building as they passed by below. What we have seen so far is a totally ineffective use of a perfectly devastating weapon. Why???

It really makes no sense at all, and I, for one, refuse to simply chalk it up to simple stupidity or sheer incompetence by the people doing this - that does not make sense, either. Any ideas as to what the possible advantages of this current crude delivery method might be to the "terrorists", in the long run?

-- Fun with bio-weaponeering (the_professor@gilligans.island), October 29, 2001.

Fun with, etc:

You said:

Not even close.But close enough. I could give you of a list of things in my lab fridge that make it look harmless. All natural. But then you know that. Fortunately, these are research materials, I am into helping people and not killing people. I am now into helping cattle and goats. Helen will love that. :)))

Best Wishes,,,,,

Z

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Yes, and most of you stupid fucks would have laughed at the prospect of terrorists bringing one World Trade tower down, let alone both of them...

-- just pointing out the facts (shoot@the.messenger), October 29, 2001.

LOL!

I'm sure if you had suggested the idea to Z in August that someone might attempt to bring down the towers with airplanes, he would have gone into a lengthy bullshit description of his engineering qualifications and all the reasons why it is impossible!

To call him a skeptic would be a tremendous understatement. LOL, the real problem is, the poor old sack of shit just has a real hard time dealing with reality.

-- (Z@is.delusional), October 29, 2001.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

(just one more for the road)

-- Z1XY47 (ZIX4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

(forgot to capitalize my W)

-- Z1XY47 (ZIX4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1XY47 (ZIX4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

I didn't suggest smallpox has "guaranteed survivability", only that it was not a guaranteed fatal illness in the past.

The old people in our family tell us about the pandemic flu, about smallpox, about watching children die from whooping cough, about how measles killed this man or that child -- did I mention we hang out in cemetaries a lot?

The point is, the old people lived at a time when life could be snuffed out easily by a random bug and you couldn't do anything about it. They seem to have accepted it as a particularly painful, but unavoidable fact of life. And they focus more on the stories about the survivors, not the dead.

-- helen (full@moon.rising), October 29, 2001.

Helen,

You said:

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), October 29, 2001.

"What if a terrorist group releases a minivan full of the spores downwind from a major city?"

Maybe Scary Gary could try this out himself and let us know the results. Of course he'd have to be downwind to do a proper assessment.

-- (He's@still.at.it), October 31, 2001.