Scientists: Texas climate may see change

By Juan A. Lozano Associated Press Wednesday, October 24, 2001

HOUSTON -- Predicted climate changes in Texas and other Gulf Coast states caused by global warming will bring more floods, less drinking water, thinner beaches and higher temperatures, says a scientific report released Tuesday.

"The climate change is real. Models predict extreme warming, reduced precipitation. With increased temperatures, more water is lost to evaporation, higher pest loads on crops," said Evan Siemann, an assistant professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Rice University.

The report was funded by the Ecological Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

In Houston, Siemann and Roger Zimmerman, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Galveston, discussed the potential effect on Texas, including:

* Large urban areas could see an increase in saltwater contamination of water supplies because of rising sea levels combined with increasing drawdown of surface water systems and underground reservoirs. South Texas is already experiencing fresh water shortages.

* The forests of East Texas could be threatened by altered growth rates, increased potential for fires and intensified invasions by non-native species such as Chinese tallow trees.

* The amount of air pollutants such as ozone is likely to increase in Houston and Galveston -- cities trying to comply with federal pollution standards.

* Health problems associated with heat, air and water quality are likely to worsen. Temperature increases -- up to 7 degrees -- could more than double the number of heat-related deaths in Dallas and Houston.

The report suggests a three-pronged approach to dealing with the climate changes: reducing emissions from carbon pollution through such things as developing alternate forms of cleaner energy; reducing human stresses on ecosystems through such things as better use of land and water resources; and long-term planning when it comes to managing the state's agricultural, coastal and other resources. Old Git Mother of All Despots Posts: 3847 (10/24/01 9:50:04 pm )

And New Orleans will be more than three feet under water

Times-Picayune

The Gulf will rise, report predicts

Maybe 44 inches, scientists say

10/24/01

By Mark Schleifstein Staff writer/The Times-Picayune

Rising sea levels caused by global warming, combined with Louisiana's already sinking coastline, could result in the Gulf of Mexico rising by more than 3 feet in the next century, drowning remaining wetlands and increasing the risk of hurricane storm surge for New Orleans and coastal towns, according to a report released Tuesday by two national scientific organizations.

Increasing temperatures also will result in dangerously hot summers, warmer winters and less rainfall along the Gulf Coast, said the report, the first of its kind to focus on the impact of global warming along the Gulf of Mexico.

The buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause climate change is expected to raise summertime high temperatures by 3 to 7 degrees and wintertime low temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees.

The two complicated computer models used in the report to predict global warming project that the sea level will rise from 8 to 20 inches in the Gulf of Mexico during the next century, depending on how much warming occurs. When added to rates of subsidence -- the sinking of coastal sediment under its own weight -- the prediction for most of the Gulf Coast grows to 15 inches. But in Louisiana, where subsidence is occurring faster, the water could rise by as much as 44 inches.

"Here in Louisiana, we're particularly vulnerable to climate change because we're already living on the edge," said Denise Reed, a wetlands scientist at the University of New Orleans and one of the report's authors. "Many of our coastal communities, Dulac, Irish Bayou, Yscloskey, already have water lapping at their roads. Add a foot of water from climate change, and you're facing more than an inconvenience."

Reed said weather patterns may change as a result of the warming of oceans. That could trigger more years when El Nino creates a favorable environment for hurricanes to reach the Gulf Coast, she said.

Increased summer temperatures also could result in more heat-related deaths and exacerbate air pollution problems in cities already having trouble complying with federally mandated ozone limits, such as Baton Rouge, the report says. Respiratory allergy rates also may go up.

Risk of disease

Changes in the availability and flow of water through the Mississippi River system may expand the habitat and prevalence of disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes, resulting in increased rates of diseases, including malaria and dengue fever, the report said. The water changes, added to increased sewage pollution resulting from a growing population, also could spur outbreaks of Perkinsus marinus, better known as Darvo, a disease responsible for decimating oyster production in the Chesapeake Bay in recent years. Small outbreaks of Darvo already have occurred in oysters in Barataria Bay.

"This report is a call to action to the citizens of Louisiana and the people of the Gulf Coast states to determine how to sustain their ecological heritage in the face of a changing environment," said Robert Twilley, a biologist at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette and a co-author of the report. Twilley said Louisiana contributes $160 billion to the national economy, and many local industries are at risk from the effects of climate change, including oil and gas production, waterway transportation and fisheries.

"We are a people dependent on the goods and services produced along the coast," Twilley said.

Many of the report's assumptions concerning sea-level rise already are incorporated in wetlands-restoration proposals that make up the state's Coast 2050 Plan, Reed said.

Recommendations

To protect the economy, the report recommends:

-- Mitigating global warming by reducing the production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases through switches from oil to natural gas, in addition to conservation, the use of energy-saving appliances and lighting, and the development of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power.

-- Avoiding further destruction of wetlands and other ecosystems and limiting urban sprawl.

-- Adapting to the expected climate changes by choosing crops more likely to withstand warmer, drier weather, adopting water-conservation measures and adjusting flood insurance rates to account for increased risk.

The report was sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, an advocacy organization that focuses on several energy-conservation issues, and the Ecological Society of America, an organization that includes many scientists who focus on wetlands and coastal issues. In addition to Reed and Twilley, the authors of the report include scientists from the University of Florida, University of South Florida, University of Miami, Rice University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Pennsylvania State University, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the National Aeronautical and Space Administration.

-- Anonymous, October 25, 2001