One report says ground troops will wait until spring, the other says sooner, not later. I wonder if they are intentionally trying to spread conflicting information or if they are just dumb.

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Brits: Ground move unlikely until spring

LONDON, Oct. 12 (UPI) -- Senior British officials indicated Friday that a U.S.-British ground offensive into Afghanistan may not happen until next spring or summer, and -- if Osama bin Laden's al Qaida is crushed -- perhaps not at all.

The onset of severe winter weather in about four weeks time, combined with Muslim religious sensitivities surrounding Ramadan starting Nov. 17, the time required to develop an acceptable successor government to the Taliban, and the need to get many thousands of tons of food aid to millions of starving Afghans all appear to pressure allied military chiefs to delay.

This was not the message of the first few days of air strikes, when the focus was on military pressure to persuade the Taliban government to hand over bin Laden and his lieutenants before the Taliban collapsed and troops came in to get him.

But a hint of change came Thursday when Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, chief of the defense staff, said operations could continue until next summer. That was strengthened Friday when two senior British officials suggested that with unrest spreading across the Muslim world, a fresh diplomatic effort to shore up the coalition might be needed more than starting small-scale allied operations into Afghanistan.

Clare Short, Britain's international development secretary and a member of Prime Minister Tony Blair's eight-member "War Cabinet," said Friday that humanitarian food aid was the greater priority now. Appearing at a Ministry of Defense press briefing, she announced an extra $22 million to hurry food through the U.N. system before winter and catastrophe overtook Afghan refugees in about four weeks' time.

Standing with her, Armed Forces Minister Lewis Moonie said winter was indeed a decisive factor in military planning. While the holy month of Ramadan did not affect that planning, he added, the government was sensitive to Muslim religious concerns. That was why bombing would stop over the next few days: The upcoming festival of Miraj al-Nabi marks the ascent of the Prophet Mohammed to heaven, Moonie said.

It also suggested the British were trying to buy some time for a fresh political initiative to bring all Afghan leaders -- except the Taliban and bin Laden -- together to try to establish a multi-ethnic government-in-waiting to replace the Taliban when it falls. That meeting is not due to start until Oct. 21 in Peshawar, Pakistan.

From the military perspective, Blair has told 3,000 British Marine commandos on exercise off Oman that they will finish the exercise and return home as scheduled next month. There had been speculation that as the marines were battle ready and less than 1,000 miles away from Afghanistan on aircraft carriers, they might be tasked to go there as part of an Anglo-American force searching for bin Laden.

The marines are Britain's specialist troops for Arctic and mountain warfare, but sources said that for an extended winter combat operation into Afghanistan they would probably need to return to base to re-equip and re-train. More readily available and more immediately suitable may be the Paras of 16 Air Assault Brigade, whose operational doctrine is closer to that of the U.S. 101st Airborne Division, which may be involved in an Afghan operation.

The winter weather should not stop air operations, even in the highest mountains, but the heavy snows in mountain passes, and temperatures down to minus 25 degrees Celsius (-13 Fahrenheit), are likely to have a serious impact on ground maneuvering. A sandstorm for the last few days along the northern Afghanistan border has brought fighting between the Taliban and Northern Alliance almost to a complete halt.

"All options remain open. We are not saying what we will do," said a senior British official Friday. "Bad weather can be a disadvantage or an advantage -- it stops the other side moving around, for instance, while we may have better equipment and tactics."

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Troops will go in 'sooner, not later' By Michael Smith, Defence Correspondent (Filed: 13/10/2001)

GROUND troops are expected to go into Afghanistan sooner rather than later if the Taliban fail to take advantage of the pause in bombing to hand over Osama bin Laden, senior defence sources said yesterday.

Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, admitted that the imminent onset of winter meant that time was running out. He said: "Everyone knows that the weather in a few weeks' time in Afghanistan will be particularly difficult."

But small-scale insertions of special forces - such as the SAS and its American equivalent, Delta Force - for reconnaissance purposes are unlikely to be affected by the winter, and it may even help them.

Small SAS and Delta Force teams are already on the ground to liaise with the Northern Alliance.

The alliance is expected to be used as a proxy force, and for directing air attacks on cave systems thought to be used by bin Laden's men.

But the allies urgently need a forward operations base and simply taking control of that will require several thousand troops, expected to be Green Berets and members of the 10th Mountain Division, which is now based in Uzbekistan.

The allies have an advantage in that the best option, an all-weather air base designed to remain operational throughout the harsh Afghan winter at Bagram, north of Kabul, is in the hands of the Northern Alliance.

The problem will be removing the Taliban and their hand-held, surface-to-air Stinger missiles from the mountains on its southern edge.

That is why the 10th Mountain Division has been moved to Uzbekistan to train alongside the Green Berets in preparation to take control of Bagram.

It will not only provide a forward operations base for special forces operations, but also a runway from which American F15 Strike Eagle and RAF Tornado GR4 ground attack aircraft could patrol the skies over Afghanistan.

The main ground operations are likely to be "snatch" operations, with special forces like the SAS taking the lead, backed up by a larger "force protection" contingent such as the British Parachute Regiment.

The units likely to lead such operations are:

The Special Air Service, the model for the world's leading special forces units. Set up in 1941 to carry out operations behind enemy lines, it created the concept of the four-man team. It includes men with experience of similar operations in Oman.

The 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment - Delta, better known as Delta Force, the American equivalent of the SAS on which it is based. Set up at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, in 1977 by an officer who had served with the SAS, it has snatched war criminals in former Yugoslavia.

The US navy's Special Warfare Development Group, better known as Seal Team Six, was set up in the early 1980s. Based at Dam Neck, Virginia, it is believed to number about 200 men, again broken down into four-man teams, with four teams making up an assault group.

The Royal Marines Special Boat Service, formed like the SAS out of small special forces, and set up during the Second World War when they acquired the nickname the Cockleshell Heroes. They are based at Poole, Dorset, and have been trained to storm liners or North Sea oil rigs taken over by terrorists.

The Australian Special Air Service Regiment is based on its British counterpart and has liaison officers with both the SAS and Delta Force, who regard it very highly. It served in Borneo and Vietnam, where it was so successful that the Viet Cong put a $5,000 bounty on the head of each of the Ma Rung, or Jungle Ghosts.

The units expected to provide protection are:

The 75th Ranger Regiment, based at Fort Benning, Georgia. It has three battalions, each of about 600 men. The Rangers, regarded by the Americans as special forces, are essentially light, airborne infantry.

US Army Special Forces, Airborne, better known as the Green Berets. Split into seven "Special Forces Groups" of about 1,200 men, they made their name in Korea and Vietnam. They were also involved in the 1968 operation to hunt Che Guevara in Bolivia. Two battalions are in Uzbekistan.

The Parachute Regiment. Its members wear the famous red beret. It was formed in 1940 on Churchill's order and fought with distinction throughout the Second World War, most famously at Arnhem. Operations in the Falklands and Sierra Leone created a new generation of regimental heroes. It is based at Colchester, Essex.

Royal Marine Commandos wear green berets. During the Second World War, they angered Hitler to the point where he ordered them to be "annihilated". They are based at Plymouth, Arbroath and Taunton, but are now handily placed on exercise in Oman. Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, Chief of the Defence Staff, has suggested they might be used in Afghanistan.

The French Foreign Legion. Created in 1831, the Legion famously fought in post-war French Indochina, particularly at Dien Bien Phu, and the Algerian war of independence.

-- (will troops @ go. soon?), October 13, 2001