TALIBAN - Vicious bullies have no stomach for fight ahead

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Current News : One Thread

Telegraph

Simpson on Sunday: Vicious Taliban bullies have no stomach for the real fight ahead By John Simpson (Filed: 07/10/2001)

THE downward spiral which started in this country when the Afghan king was overthrown three decades ago seems to be approaching absolute rock- bottom. Presumably the long-awaited strikes against Afghanistan will begin soon. Having watched Taliban forces fighting their own countrymen, I can't imagine they will put up much resistance.

The Taliban are very good at beating up men in the street who have trimmed their beards, or whipping women for accidentally showing their faces in public. In tonight's edition of Panorama, on BBC1, I shall be showing some dreadful footage of women being punished in Kabul, as recently as August. But the Taliban aren't up to much when it comes to facing bullets.

"Their elite, battle-hardened forces are on full alert," trilled one Pakistani newspaper last week. I don't think we need to worry too much. The only Taliban fighters I have seen here since September 11 were lounging in the sun outside their position, so un-alert that they didn't notice the sound of the generator which was powering my portable live broadcast unit a short way away. It's a fairly safe assumption that the Taliban will be a pushover. Whatever happens, the Americans have got the 21st century equivalent of the Gatling gun, and the Afghans have not.

Our myths about Afghanistan go back a long way. One myth is that they always defeat their invaders. In fact a long succession of invaders have been quite successful in Afghanistan, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the British in the 19th century. But these invaders have been successful only when they carried out a series of quick hits then staged a well-planned withdrawal.

When the invaders think of staying on, like the British in the 1840s, or the Russians in the 1980s, the Afghans eventually overcome their own differences long enough to see them off. If the Americans, with British help, attack the Taliban hard from the air, put in special forces to help the Northern Alliance capture Kabul, and then rely on old-fashioned treachery for someone to turn in Osama bin Laden and his associates, they ought to do really well.

Logic requires that the Americans should get out fast, leaving the country in the hands of the Northern Alliance. Yet that is the approach which got us into all this in the first place. Leaving Afghanistan to its own devices while simultaneously meddling in its politics from the outside helped to foster the savage civil war which has continued here ever since the Russians pulled out in 1989.

The only conceivable force which can take over from the Taliban is the Northern Alliance. Yet this is essentially the same grouping which the Taliban chased out of Kabul in 1996, cheered on by large numbers of people who were sick of their gross corruption and mismanagement in government.

That was when the Alliance had the services of the most efficient politician in the coalition, Ahmad Shah Massoud. He was murdered three days before the attacks of September 11, presumably on bin Laden's orders.

The efforts to recruit the king in some capacity to draw more and more parties and groups into some grand coalition merely seem like a good way to ensure further trouble. It would be easier to herd cats. You can see how easily the Americans, their immediate job done, will be tempted to leave the Afghans to their own devices as quickly as possible.

That would be a serious mistake. The Afghans' own devices are what have ruined this country, turning its towns and villages into a vast killing field. What is needed is the most delicate of tactics: encouraging the victors to form a government which will keep the peace, give everyone a reasonable chance whatever their religion or ethnic background, and resist both revenge and the insidious growth of corruption.

The Taliban arose in the first place only because Afghanistan became a kind of international black hole, where any lunacy could flourish. Let's hope the Americans are thinking beyond the coming battle to the new Afghanistan which will follow it. Otherwise we will be faced with something like the old Afghanistan, just as violent as ever.

John Simpson is the BBC's World Affairs editor

-- Anonymous, October 07, 2001

Answers

I gather that the Northern Alliance has forces close to Kabul right now. This surprised me, pleasantly.

-- Anonymous, October 07, 2001

Moderation questions? read the FAQ