http://www.boston.com/news/daily/24/taliban_grip.htm

Analysis-Taliban grip seen slipping before US attack

By Scott McDonald, Reuters, 09/24/01

PESHAWAR - The Taliban grip on Afghanistan may already be slipping even before an expected U.S. assault for not handing over the prime suspect in the attacks on New York and Washington, Afghanistan observers said.

The Taliban's strict policies to create the world's purest Islamic state and the country's position as a pariah in the world community have disheartened many Afghans who welcomed them as bringers of peace when they swept to power in 1996.

The few international links the hardline movement had are also weakening. The United Arab Emirates broke off diplomatic relations on Saturday, leaving only Pakistan and Saudi Arabia recognising the state.

"People are turning away from the Taliban because they know international support will not be forthcoming as long as they are in power," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Pakistani journalist who has met the Taliban's reclusive leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar.

"They have alienated a large number of people because of their policies," he said. "The support they had at the beginning was huge, but they have been losing that support, although it is not organised."

Many Afghans have become fed up with the Taliban's continued war with its Northern Alliance rivals, the strict lifestyle imposed on them and the deteriorating standard of living.

"There is so much despair," said one United Nations aid worker evacuated from Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that the United States has blamed on Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden.

Bin Laden has been a "guest" of the Taliban since 1996 and Washington has called on Kabul to hand him over or face war.

"They have not seen anything get better, they've given up hope and are sick of worrying about breaking some crazy Taliban law," the aid worker said.

SUPPORT FADES

When the Taliban swept to power in 1996, they were quickly accepted by Afghans fed up with years of war against the Soviet Union followed by a civil conflict that had left much of the country in an outlaw limbo.

The Taliban quickly imposed order and a semblance of normal life in the parts of the country they controlled while fighting the opposition Northern Alliance.

But they have been criticised for denying basic education and employment rights to women, and were the objects of worldwide disgust earlier this year when they destroyed two huge 2,000-year-old Buddhist statues in Bamiyan.

"The only time you hear about the Taliban overseas is when they do something to limit women's rights or they are cutting down historical Buddhist statues," the aid worker said.

The face-off with the United States over bin Laden has fuelled fears among Afghans that there will be an attack. Tens of thousands have fled the cities for the countryside or to Pakistan, which has closed its borders to them.

FIGHT FOR COUNTRY BUT NOT FOR TALIBAN

Pakistani officials and commentators have urged Washington to distinguish between the Taliban and Afghanistan if it launches an attack, saying heavy bombing or a massive ground invasion would only exacerbate the plight of the impoverished country.

"A measured response with well-thought out aims is a better option than an open-ended war with the Afghan people, who themselves are fed up with the Taliban," The Dawn, Pakistan's biggest English-language newspaper, said in an editorial.

"If foreign forces come in, people will fight for the country but not for the Taliban," said Yusufzai.

With calls in the West to back the Afghan opposition, the Taliban are also likely to face a much better equipped Northern Alliance, which has already been staging attacks and hopes to take the strategic town of Mazar-i-sharif in the next few days.

The Taliban control 95 percent of the country, with the Northern Alliance restricted to a narrow northern corridor and a few pockets elsewhere.

Talk has also risen about any post-Taliban government, including the traditional Loya Jirga tribal assembly under the patronage of ex-king Mohammed Zahir Shah.

The 86-year-old king has lived in Rome since being overthrown by his nephew in 1973, an event now seen as the starting point of the country's recent problems.

"The Afghan people are so desperate that they are even willing to try this very old man," said Yusufzai.

-- Anonymous, September 24, 2001