Sunday, 23 September 2001 4:43 (ET)

Pakistani rulers appear more confident By ANWAR IQBAL

WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 (UPI) -- Pakistan's military rulers appeared more confident Sunday of controlling the fundamentalist protest against their decision to back a U.S.-led campaign against terrorism than they were two days ago.

"We were a little nervous on Friday," when a strike call by a dozen religious parties brought thousands out in the streets to protest the government's pro-U.S. policies, said a senior military official.

The fundamentalists want Pakistan to back Afghanistan's Taliban rulers who appear almost certain to face a major U.S. military offensive for their refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, a prime suspect in last week's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, and other suspected terrorists.

"But a relatively small turnout in anti-government protests on Saturday seem to confirm our understanding that the fundamentalists are a minority," the official said.

However, political analysts in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, said that it's still too early for the government to relax. "The situation can change rapidly once the military strikes begin," says Rasheed Khalid, who teaches defense and strategic studies at Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University.

Other political commentators warn that the fundamentalists can turn violent if they realize that they are not getting popular support.

Western diplomats in Islamabad say that there are between 300,000-400,000 well-trained and armed militants in Pakistan.

"Although a tiny minority in a country of 140 million people, they can plunge the country into a civil war if they feel they are losing," said one diplomat.

Four people were killed in Karachi on Friday, three in clashes between the protesters and police while a shopkeeper was stoned to death by the militants for opening his shop in defiance of their strike call.

Thousands of protesters, mainly from Muslim seminaries called madaris, took to the streets in major cities, chanting "Death to Bush" and "Musharraf, sell your mother to the Americans." Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, once admired by the militants for standing up to India on the 53-year old Kashmir issue, has now become and object of ridicule and hatred for them for siding with the United States.

But the anti-U.S. and anti-Musharraf frenzy appears to be calming down as many Pakistanis realize that opposing the United States at this stage could spell disaster for their impoverished country.

Musharraf had warned that rejecting the international community's demand to fight terrorism could cause Pakistan's economy, already reeling under more than $40 billion dollars of foreign debt, to collapse and endanger the country's nuclear weapons that it needs to protect itself against India which, he said, was a larger nuclear power.

"More and more people are beginning to appreciate the government's position and I believe this support (for the government) will grow," said a spokesman for the Information Ministry in Islamabad.

However, Pakistani officials admit that there is a possibility for more trouble, particularly in the provinces of North West Frontier and Baluchistan. Both the provinces have large Pashtoon populations who are unhappy with the situation.

"They have strong religious, ethnic and lingual affinities in Afghanistan where Pashtoon is the largest ethnic group," says Rasheed. "And this feeling of unease that already exists in the Pashtoon areas could quickly turn into unrest and violence."

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers are also Pashtoons and are trying to instigate Pakistani Pashtoons to protest the government's decision to back "infidels from the United States against their fellow Muslims," as Taliban ambassador in Islamabad, Mullah Zaef, described this fight.

But the government draws solace from a declaration of support from the country's two major political parties -- the People's party and the Muslim League -- who have pledged not to participate in the protest. "We are with the government on this issue," former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who leads the People's Party, told CNN. "The government should avail this opportunity to fight terrorism" in Pakistan and around the country, she said.

Although Pakistan has fortified its 1,560-mile long border with Afghanistan following a threat from the Taliban that they will attack Pakistan if it helps Washington, Western defense experts say that the Pakistan Army is well-equipped to deal with such a threat.

However, dealing with the political fallout of such a conflict, particularly in the Pashtoon areas, would be more difficult. And it may take Pakistan years to overcome the consequences of a U.S.-led military strike into Afghanistan if the current situation leads to a war. --

-- Anonymous, September 23, 2001