http://www.boston.com/dailynews/248/nation/Experts_baffled_by_lack_of_hur:.shtml

Experts baffled by lack of hurricanes so far in predicted busy Atlantic hurricane season

By Associated Press, 9/5/2001 19:58

MIAMI (AP) Where are the hurricanes?

The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season which runs from June through November has yet to have a hurricane.

''We're all dressed up and have no place to go,'' said Hugh Willoughby, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division. ''None of the things we looked at before the season told us that it should be this suppressed.''

The last time a hurricane season got this far along without a hurricane was 1984, when Diana formed on Sept. 10.

In a typical year, at least two hurricanes would have developed by now, including one with wind whistling at more than 110 mph.

The experts had forecast a particularly active hurricane season this year.

So what happened?

''We have no idea, and you can quote me on that. At the moment, we have no explanation,'' said Lixion Avila, a top forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The foremost hurricane forecaster, Colorado State University scientist William Gray, predicted 12 tropical storms this year, seven of them hurricanes. NOAA forecasters predicted a dozen tropical storms, up to eight of them hurricanes.

However, Tropical Storms Allison, Barry, Chantal and Dean all failed to reach hurricane strength, or sustained wind of at least 74 mph.

Erin had top steady wind of just 45 mph Wednesday, then faded to a depression as it followed a course across the Atlantic that would take it well north of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. Forecasters said it was unlikely to gain strength to hurricane force later in the week.

Still, this is the hurricane season's peak activity period, which runs from late August through early September.

''The experience has been that with a late start, one that comes after Sept. 1, you can still have an average season,'' Willoughby said.

-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001