ND-40,000 People To Be Evac Ahead Of Pinatuba Volcano....

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Tuesday September 4, 6:55 PM

40,000 people to be evacuated ahead of Pinatubo volcano lake draining MANILA, Sept 4 (AFP) - Philippine officials prepared Tuesday to evacuate some 40,000 people as experts moved to drain a massive crater lake threatening to overflow from Mount Pinatubo.

A group of Aeta tribesmen have been working with state engineers to build a canal on the edge of the volcano to release some 24 million cubic metersmillion cubic feet) of water on Thursday, chief government vulcanologist Raymundo Punongbayan said.

A massive eruption carved out the top of Pinatubo in 1991, creating a 2.5 kilometer (1.5 mile) wide lake that now holds some 210 million cubic meters (7.35 billion cubic feet) of water.

With the onset of the monsoon season, experts last month warned that the lake could overflow in two months and sweep away surrounding towns.

The plan called for a controlled release of the lakewater to ease pressure on the crater wall of the 860-meter (2,840-feet) Mount Pinatubo, whose eruption 10 years ago was considered to be one of the most violent in history.

"The water is expected to spill out very fast, but I think it is safe," Punongbayan said, adding that the canal's base is supported by hard rock "stronger than concrete".

"We hope it will not be washed out," he said.

The water is expected to mix with ground sediment and transform into a mud-flow that is expected to be contained in a river channel north of the volcano.

Experts had warned that a sudden gush of the dammed water in Pinatubo could flood the entire town of Botolan, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of the crater.

"We don't see it happening like that. It would take time before it could carve a wide and deep channel," Punongbayan said.

Evacuation of residents "will be done tomorrow (Wednesday). I think we are talking in terms of over 40,000 people in Botolan and various other towns", he said.

"We are ready to release the water on Thursday morning at seven in the morning (2300 GMT Wednesday)," Punongbayan said.

A similar project had been successfully carried out in Indonesia's Kelut volcano, he said, while noting that Pinatubo is about five or six times larger.

If everything goes smoothly, breaching of the excess water could take anywhere between five or six hours to several days, he said.

The displaced villagers will be transferred to higher ground in the neighboring town of Iba, said Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology scientist Jimmy Sincioco, one of the project leaders.

Up to 7,628 families in about 20 villages will be affected by the evacuation to be supervised by provincial disaster officials, he said.

About 100 tribesmen and a handful of scientists and supervisors will begin their dangerous trek to the summit Thursday morning from a former military camp in Capas town in Tarlac province.

Upon reaching the summit, they will remove a five-meter wall portion of the crater called Maraunot notch, which acts as a "plug" that would release the water, the scientist said.

In case a portion of the tunnel collapses, the rampaging water is expected to flow into the Balin-Baquero and Maraunot rivers in Botolan town.

-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001

Answers

Gawd,I hope they weren't drinking when they did the calculations!

-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001

5 to 6 hours to several days? I think they were drinking...

-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001

No drinking, no, nothing like that. They just know the level of ability and science that is being applied here. If those tribesmen and scientists get it right, it will slowly drain out over several days. If they screw up it will gush out in just a few hours. And they have no idea which result they will get, so they're giving us the range from worst case to best case. Wish them luck.

-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001

BBC Wednesday, 5 September, 2001, 17:38 GMT 18:38 UK Philippines volcano evacuation begins Thousands of villagers have abandoned their homes

The Philippine authorities have begun the evacuation of more than 40,000 people from Botolan in the north of the country in case a daring attempt to drain a volcano's lake goes wrong.

The lake, in the crater of Mount Pinatubo, has filled with rainwater since it was created in an eruption 10 years ago.

Scientists fear that unless they empty it in a controlled manner, it could breach the volcano's rim and flood the surrounding area.

Raymundo Punongbayan, director of the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology, said a five-metre-wide (16 feet) channel had been dug from the crater's edge.

A "plug" of earth has been left in place, ready to be dislodged when the order to drain the lake is given, expected on Thursday morning.

Mr Punongbayan said there was still a 20% chance of the operation going wrong.

In this scenario, a surge of water could collect mud and bury villages in several metres of debris.

"That's why we want people to evacuate," Mr Punongbayan said.

Geologists believe the lake that has formed in the crater could release as much as 60 million cubic metres of water (13 billion gallons).

If the operation goes according to plan, 24 million cubic metres (five billion gallons) will be drained off in the first 24 hours.

The problem has its roots in Mount Pinatubo's 1991 eruption, when 800 people were killed.

The volcano's top was blown off during the eruption, leaving a hole covering five square km (two square miles).

Despite government warnings about the evacuation, not everyone intends to leave.

Faustino Corum, a retired government assessor, told Reuters news agency he was staying put.

"I will be able to see the waters coming even if they are still kilometres away. That will give me enough time to run," he was quoted as saying.



-- Anonymous, September 05, 2001


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