ISRAEL - Border tense after threat of 'spectacular' attack

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Israeli Border Tense After Threat Of 'Spectacular' Attack By Julie Stahl CNSNews.com Jerusalem Bureau Chief August 31, 2001

Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - Israeli security forces were on high alert Friday after intelligence reports warned that the Lebanon-based Hizballah militia was planning a "spectacular" attack along Israel's northern border.

Analysts in Israel have downplayed fears of an all-out war between Israel and Syria, while leaving open the possibility that unfolding events could spark a wider conflagration.Syria dominates Lebanon and supports Hizballah.

The U.S. was dragged once again into the Syrian equation earlier this week when a spokesman for the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called on Arabs "to hit American interests" because of Washington's support for Israeli policies.

The comments were made after Israel killed a West Bank-based PFLP leader whom it said was responsible for a series of bomb attacks. They were later retracted, but not before the U.S. warned Syria that it had better rein in the Marxist group.

Syrian expert Yossi Olmert described the situation along Israel's northern border as both "fluid" and "fragile," saying it was being held captive by Hizballah.

Those who control the northern border on the Lebanese side are terrorists who don't need any particular reason to attack Israel, Olmert said. According to intelligence reports received by the army, Hizballah's planned attacks are not related to the death of the PFLP leader, he added.

According to Olmert, a scenario could develop that would see a Hizballah terror attack, followed by an Israeli counter-strike on a Syrian target in Lebanon.

The question, he said, was how long Syrian leader Bashar Assad could "sustain a loss of prestige" by absorbing Israeli strikes without responding.

Israel holds Syria, the main powerbroker in Lebanon, responsible for the actions of Hizballah, which is armed and supplied through Damascus.

Olmert said the players may also be engaging in "psychological warfare" in which Israel may have highlighted a intelligence report in order to deliver a stern warning to Syria not to allow Hizballah to attack.

If there is no attack, he said, Israel will "brag discreetly" that it was because of its pre-emptive warning, while Hizballah will say it never intended to attack anyway.

Israel Thursday sent messages to Syria and Lebanon by way of a high-profile visit to northern Israel by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who were briefed on the possibility of a Hizballah attack.

Analysts said the publicized trip was intended to send a signal to Syria that Israel would retaliate against its interests in Lebanon if Hizballah is allowed to attack.

Israel also sent messages to Damascus and Beirut through U.S. and U.N. diplomatic channels, warning them of Israel's impatience at their laxness in dealing with Hizballah.

Dr. Eyal Zisser, of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East Studies at Tel Aviv University, noted that Hizballah has maintained a pattern of attacking Israel every two-and-a-half to three months, and the last attack was in June, he said.

The question was whether the coming attack would follow the pattern of previous ones, when Hizballah mounted an assault through the disputed Shebaa Farms area, or whether a new target would be hit.

Hizballah maintains the Shebaa Farms is Lebanese, although the U.N. backs Israel's claim that since it was captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War, Lebanon has no claim to it.

Zisser said Israel would regard as an escalation any attack on a different area inside Israel.

"Although nobody wants war, if they start playing with fire who knows where it will lead."

Although most attention in on the Palestinian conflict right now, Zisser warned that an Israel-Syria-Hizballah conflagration, should it happen, could be more dramatic if everyone wasn't careful.

Palestinian Connection?

Hizballah is constantly looking for the right time to attack Israel, according to counter-terrorism expert Dr. Ely Karmon, of the International Policy Institute on Counter-terrorism near Tel Aviv.

Hizballah has to be careful to coordinate its actions with Syria because of the Israeli threats of retaliation, Karmon said. However, there are signs that Syria itself may be becoming more aggressive, and looking to coordinate positions with the Palestinians too.

PA Chairman Yasser Arafat is scheduled to visit Damascus next month. Syria through the 1990s distanced itself from Arafat for having signed the Oslo Accords with Israel.

If Arafat is now planning to coordinate some activity with the Syrians it was a sign that he had lost hope in American and other mediation efforts, Karmon said.

"[It is] a sign of more extremism of the part of the PA," he added.

-- Anonymous, August 31, 2001


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