[SHT]Oh, brrrrrother! Winter forecast packs icy punch for Iowa

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Oh, brrrrrother! Winter forecast packs icy punch By WILLIAM PETROSKI Register Staff Writer 08/30/2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tune up the snowblower. Start thinking about pulling out the mittens and long johns.

A harsh winter is expected for Iowa in the coming months, although it probably won't be as bitter as the past winter, said Elwynn Taylor, a climatologist at Iowa State University in Ames.

Statewide snowfall last winter averaged nearly 46 inches, the most in a decade. Des Moines had 49 inches of snow and a local record of 99 consecutive days with 1 inch or more of snow cover. That period extended from Dec. 11 through March 19.

Taylor is basing his prediction on research at Utah State University, which has found that the severity of winters appears to follow a historical cycle influenced by how often frigid polar air reaches the center of the continent.

Over the past winter, Iowans experienced eight to nine "polar air outbreaks," depending on where they lived. During the previous winter, which was exceptionally mild, there were none.

"This is what we call a sawtooth pattern," Taylor said. After an especially severe winter, bitter weather tends to taper off over a period of years "and then it jumps right back to the harshest," he said.

Donald Jensen, director of Utah State's Climate Center, said Wednesday he wasn't ready to issue his forecast for the coming winter, although he wouldn't dispute Taylor's predictions for Iowa.

Jensen said he is still refining his research into winter cycles, but he noted his forecast for last winter "did nail that one perfectly." The winter cycles generally follow five- to nine-year periods, he said.

Taylor said the Utah State research doesn't necessarily indicate Iowa will have extraordinary snowfall during the coming winter. But Iowans can expect an above-average number of occasions when the weather turns bitterly cold and windy, he said.

The National Weather Service, in its 90-day outlook that extends through November, said Iowans can expect normal temperatures and precipitation, meaning some cold weather and snow is likely.

The severity of the past winter was compounded because Iowa had a significant amount of early snow, followed by prolonged cold weather, said Frank Boksa, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Johnston.

"If you remember, December and January were pretty darn cold. Usually we have a break in that period. Well, that never happened," Boksa said.

State climatologist Harry Hillaker said it's reasonable to expect a near-normal winter for Iowa in the months ahead. An El Nino weather pattern has apparently returned, although it is expected to be weak, he said.

El Nino is a warming of the usually chilled waters of the Pacific Ocean west of South America that typically brings Iowa a cool, wet fall, followed by a very mild mid-winter.

The latest Farmers Almanac, meanwhile, predicts another "old-fashioned" winter lies ahead. The forecast calls for an early winter and a "very active weather pattern, especially in the Northeast," the publication said. The almanac bases it predictions on a formula involving sunspots, planet positions and tides - and it claims an 80 percent accuracy rate.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001

Answers

Des Moines had 49 inches of snow and a local record of 99 consecutive days with 1 inch or more of snow cover.

Good heavens! Now I remember why I moved from New Jersey after one bad winter and vowed never to live north of the Mason-Dixon line. I'm still gonna complain about the heat and humidity, though.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


That is our right as southerners, Git.

Iowans will probably feel the cold as a freezing fist in their wallet pocket as fuel prices jump during that period of ice age known as winter.

Now is the time to think about bigger tanks for heating fuel, if one can manage it.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


I have a 1000 gal tank for propane and it is full and we are contracting for another 500 gal. I need to get about 3-4 cords of wood as well and then we are pretty set for the winter.

Now if it would just rain for a few days, I'd be really happy.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


Rain? Eatcha heart out!



-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


OG,

You are mean, just plain mean sometimes :^)

We usually get 1/2 - 1" of rain a week and we have had maybe 2" all summer. My grass looks dead, I have to water my flowers to keep them alive and our hay crop was terrible and we will have to buy hay to make it through the winter.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001



You mean you don't make hay while the sun shines?

Seriously, we've had somewhat more rain than usual and moss is growing on my north side.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


I'll tell you why the economy is such a mess. Those silly retailers STILL don't have snow shovels lined up yet. My neighbor has one of those ergonomic models, sort of Z shaped. It's great for doing long paths. Couldn't find one tonight at Home Depot, they still have barbecue stuff laid out.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001

I'll bet you anything they have 'em at Lowe's right now. I know the pansies are in :) Sweetie got his new job just in time for pansying.

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001

Beckie, well, we reached $1.79 gal regular out here, and our Lowe's is behind, too. They're still trying to unload the summer stuff with a huge Labor Day sale. More signs of a recession: tons of the higher priced gas grills, lawn mowers, and fountains drastically reduced. Looks like it was a bad summer for the pricey stuff.

As for a bad winter, I'm not worried. Cold kills bugs and sends a huge percentage of the riff-raff off to pester Barefoot in Miami. Bring it on, I say! (;

-- Anonymous, August 30, 2001


Hey! Now wait a minute...

-- Anonymous, August 31, 2001


Don't remind me about snow shovels - we need a new one and DH is getting a new to us tractor (with a cab this time) and I hope the blade works on it. I need to get a blade for our JD lawn tractor too so I can move snow if I have to. Geez I really don't want to think about snow yet.

Take heart Barefoot, the riffraff from here goes to Texas and AZ :^)

-- Anonymous, August 31, 2001


We have sufficient local riffraff and have no need for inferior imports. Sniff.

-- Anonymous, August 31, 2001

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