POLITICS The Chandra Levy Case Democrats fear fallout from Condit Scandal's effects may be nationwide

Carla Marinucci, Stacy Finz, Zachary Coile, Chronicle Staff Writers Sunday, August 26, 2001

It took 30 fleeting minutes, the span of one television interview, to map the troubled political terrain facing Rep. Gary Condit -- and the Democratic Party -- in the 15 long months until the next election.

The face of Modesto voter John Zank, a loyal Democrat and longtime Condit supporter, told the tale as he sat in his living room Thursday night, surrounded by family, watching Connie Chung question his congressman about the disappearance of 24-year-old intern Chandra Levy.

At 10 p.m., as the interview began, Zank was "on the fence" about Condit, whom he described as a good politician and a probably unlucky philanderer having an affair with the young woman, who vanished May 1.

At 10:09, watching Condit's wooden performance, Zank angrily shook his head.

And by 10:31, Zank vowed he would never vote for Condit again.

"It's beyond looking like he knows something (about Levy). It looks like he's involved," the health marketer said incredulously, citing Condit's cold demeanor and canned responses. "The Democrats need to find someone else. He cannot redeem himself."

Zank's crisis of confidence underscores how the fallout from the disappearance of the Modesto woman now threatens not only to take down the Ceres Democrat but also to have a damaging ripple effect, Democrats fear, throughout the party.

In recent weeks, the 12-year congressman's stonewalling strategy has thrown into doubt prospects for a once solid Democratic congressional seat and cast a shadow on California's Democrat-controlled political landscape.

Worse, the unrelenting focus on the intimate relationship between Condit, 53, and Levy, which he has not publicly admitted, has handed Republicans ammunition for coming contests -- resurrecting the Clinton controversy and charges that Democrats are somehow less connected to the family values held by most Americans.

With political lines being redrawn in the nation's most populous state, and just a handful of seats separating Democrats from controlling the U.S. House of Representatives, Condit's current pledge to run for re-election could create repercussions from his hometown to the nation's capital. Among them:

-- In the Central Valley's 18th Congressional District, where Condit has been a sure bet for six terms, polls show a majority of voters would not vote to re-elect him. So far, the only challenger is a Republican whom Condit has beaten handily the past.

"You can't beat somebody with nobody," cautioned Richie Ross, Condit's political consultant.

-- Statewide, as political lines are being redrawn in the 2000 reapportionment, Democrats in control must balance the interests of the party with those of an embattled congressman. Condit, who is close to Democratic Gov. Davis, might "have some luck" if the Legislature doesn't dismember his district, said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

But one plan already includes strengthening Democratic chances by stretching 18th District lines north to include heavily Democratic Stockton. "Democrats can solve their problem," Republican consultant Tony Quinn told the Associated Press, "and reapportionment is going to do it for them."

-- Nationally, the Democratic Party is not only vying for control of the House of Representatives in 2002 but also hopes to take back the White House in 2004. Republicans and conservative talk-show hosts have begun relentlessly seizing on Condit's behavior to pose the question: Are the Democrats really going to back this guy?

Such talk clearly has frustrated state Democrats, who worry that the effect of nonstop attention on Condit might filter through the ranks, top to bottom -- turning off voters, demoralizing labor groups and the grassroots, even freezing some big Democratic Party donors.

"This is the most difficult situation for the Democratic leadership," said Sacramento Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman. "As a rule, you expect a member to do what's in the best interest of the district and the party. If Gary Condit continues to play this out as he has so far, he is protecting himself, first and foremost," she said. "He's not giving a lot of consideration to the party."

And it will be tough to get across a message about the Democratic agenda if party leaders in Washington continue to be "stunned to be answering questions about Condit" in news conferences rather than talking about energy or health care, said one California Democratic legislator.

Many Democrats suggested in recent weeks that Condit has only magnified his problems -- and theirs -- with his widely panned "Primetime Thursday" interview.

"He started off in what can only be described as a deep, dark, unspinnable place," said expert spinmaster Chris Lehane, the Bay Area communications consultant and spokesman for former President Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. "There was the $1 million question out there: 'Did you or did you not have the affair?' If he wasn't prepared to answer that question, he shouldn't have done that interview."

And now it won't go away, he said.

"It's moved from 'What will he tell us?' to 'He didn't tell us anything' to the melodrama over the Democrats (and their values)," said Lehane. "You still have a fire that's flaming."

To put the fire out, party leaders already appear to be stepping away from Condit.

"If you look at this crassly, politically . . . all the normal players will have a hard time making eye contact with Gary Condit for a long time to come," said one leading Democratic consultant, speaking on condition of anonymity. "This is not normal political behavior."

House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt suggested Friday the House might now have to look into action against Condit -- perhaps even stripping him of his seat on the intelligence committee.

Rep. Cal Dooley of Fresno and California Democratic Party chair Art Torres were both sharply critical, saying Democrats were disappointed with Condit's failure to ask for forgiveness.

But "it is still too early to declare Mr. Condit's career is over," Torres said. "All he needs is 50 plus 1 (percent) to win re-election . . . so I don't think the door has been closed just yet."

Torres acknowledged that among Democrats "there has been a consensus, and deep concern, that this will be a very difficult campaign."

Barbara O'Connor, communications professor at California State University at Sacramento, said Condit "doesn't have a very long window to try and get his ducks in a row" before party leaders must decide whether they will reshape his district -- or find another candidate.

Republicans are wasting no time.

"Clearly, we're going to offer a strong alternative to Mr. Condit," said state GOP spokesman Rob Stutzman. "Condit will make it extremely difficult to draw even loyal Democratic votes."

Still, "the reason that Condit has a real chance to survive is because over the years he has built a strong record and close ties with literally thousands and thousands of people in his district," said Sabato. "If he runs, I think he will do surprisingly well. He's been written off way too quickly."

But a top California Democratic consultant, who declined to be named, hinted Condit might yet make it easy for Democrats.

"It's still in Gary Condit's hands. It's not clear he's going to run again," he said. "I think a lot of Democrats in California will await his own decision -- before throwing him over the side of the ship."

-- Anonymous, August 26, 2001