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Japan's hopes of becoming a space leader hinge on new rocket

By Joji Sakurai, Associated Press, 8/22/2001 12:09

TOKYO (AP) It is the centerpiece of Japan's space program. Engineers have labored on it for decades, and the government has pinned hopes for the nation's future in space on its success.

But as the maiden H2-A rocket awaits launch from a pad in southern Japan, its success remains anything but clear as does a space program once considered among the world's most promising.

Japan's National Space Development Agency had planned to launch the H2-A on Saturday, but a mechanical glitch forced officials on Wednesday to postpone it until at least next week. The rocket is designed to send a four-ton satellite into orbit.

It was the latest setback after a string of failures that is seeping the public's patience with the space program especially at a time when Japan's popular prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, has declared war on wasteful public spending.

''We're definitely feeling the heat,'' said NASDA spokesman Keiichi Yamata. ''There is a social environment right now that won't permit any more mistakes.''

The first five launches of the prototype H-2 rocket the H2-A's predecessor went off without a hitch. Japan has put a satellite in orbit around the moon and was the first nation to dock two satellites in space by remote control.

But since 1998, the program has been a litany of disaster: Mechanical failures, budget overruns, two failed launches of the H-2 including one two years ago in which officials deliberately exploded the rocket in mid-air out of fear it would careen out of control.

Those mishaps have thrown the entire aerospace program into doubt and cost billions of dollars.

And the widespread perception that Japan is sending duds into space is hurting the economic prospects of the program: Hughes Space and Communications International last year canceled an order for 10 H2-A rockets priced at about $71 million each.

''Particularly in Japan, people make a big fuss about technological failures,'' said aeronautics expert Hideo Nagasu. ''If the upcoming H2-A launch fails, the space program will suffer a fatal wound.''

But space agency officials say they are confident they have a winner in the H2-A one that will soon be able to compete with Europe's Ariane and America's Atlas.

NASDA's Yamata said the 174 foot-high, 285-ton rocket is built with 20 percent fewer parts than its H-2 predecessor, making it trimmer, cheaper and less prone to malfunction.

Designed especially for commercial use, the H2-A's $71 million price tag half the cost of the H-2 puts it on par with rockets built in Europe and the United States.

And NASDA hopes to test a special rocket booster within two years that would allow the H2-A to put a 7.5-ton payload into orbit, a development that would give the new rocket the power required to compete.

''The gap with Ariane isn't going to be completely closed if we succeed in this launch,'' said Yamata. ''But if we succeed, we'll be contenders.''

In addition to the economic benefits, Japan is anxious to use its rocket technology to launch spy satellites that would allow it to gain information on military threats such as North Korea.

Developments this week, however, already bode poorly for the launch even the weather seemed to be conspiring against it.

A typhoon that slammed into Japan on Tuesday delayed the delivery of replacement parts for the faulty valve that caused the H2-A's launch postponement.

The delay was the second so far for the H2-A. Its first launch was originally set for February, but cracked pipes and plating scuttled those plans.

Adding to the anxieties of NASDA officials, newspapers reported on Wednesday that the government was already targeting the space program for consolidation.

The Asahi and Nikkei dailies said the Science Ministry plans to combine the three government aerospace agency into one organization a move that would lead to steep budget cuts.

-- Anonymous, August 23, 2001