Analysts yesterday predicted a rise in jobless as a survey showed the trend of business failures was still high in Scotland.

Unemployment figures, to be released tomorrow, are expected to show only a marginal fall in the number of people claiming benefit as redundancies mount, while the City believes unemployment will soon edge towards the government's much trumpeted one million mark as the economy continues to struggle.

Despite the impact of the US slowdown on the manufacturing sector, Britain has witnessed record falls in unemployment in recent months. In June, the number of people claiming benefit fell by 12,000 to 963,700, a jobless rate of 3.2%, the best figures since 1975.

Economists believe, however, the tide may be turning as the number of job losses increase.

Last week, gas group BOC cut 200 jobs in Britain, following Marconi's recent decision to axe 1500 UK staff and the loss of 600 jobs at NEC in Scotland.

Philip Shaw, of City stockbroker Investec, said: "We have been very surprised at how the claimant count has continued to fall despite the sluggishness of the economy."

The figures come in another key week for the economy, with an update on inflation due today and retail sales data to be released on Thursday.

A survey has shown that while the number of Scottish companies folding has fallen, the underlying trend is still bleak for businesses north of the border, with the rate of corporate failures at its highest since 1992.

The findings were made by business advisers Grant Thornton in its quarterly Scottish insolvency survey.

It warns failure rates will continue to be high as the impact of world economic slowdown and foot-and-mouth disease begins to filter through the Scottish economy.

Matt Henderson, a partner with Grant Thornton in Edinburgh, said: "Generally speaking, retailing is currently doing quite well, there appears to be a building boom, and even manufacturing was still doing reasonably well into the second quarter."

Post Office parent company Consignia has confirmed it will shed up to 250 jobs as part of a £30m call centre closure plan.

The organisation is to shut 59 of its 70 sites across the country, which handle around one million customer inquiries a month. It will replace them with 11 "super centres", including one in Glasgow, and claims the changes will boost efficiency and service.

Union leaders have pledged to resist any compulsory redundancies among the 4500 employees concerned and the company said it would offer transfers, alternative jobs, and voluntary redundancies.

However, there was good news in the defence industry with a Glasgow company securing a multi-million pound contract for thermal imaging systems.

The Herald

[§ As an aside. Thermal imagers are used by firefighters
to look for hot spots, by law enforcement to look for pot
growers (No longer in US without a warrant: Kyllo vs. US),
and the newest tech item, a thermal imager rocket launcher
to take out bunkers and tanks.]

-- spider (spider@web.com), August 14, 2001