Crossposted from http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=34230#post34230 [The thread rrom which this posting is taken may be of additional interest in that it discusses current estimates of where we are on the Y2K impact scale and where we might be heading.]

The following is a reprise of mostly previously posted material. I have also attached lists of references and resources that may be of help to those interested in studying archived material concerning Y2K-related problems and problems that are possibly Y2K-related that have occurred pre- and post- rollover. I have not taken the time to make sure that the older links are still working. Nevertheless, I hope that some may find the material both of use and of interest.

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Thread 1

Response to February 2001 threads on ezboard addressing Y2K-related embedded control system connections to energy sector and other problems (with minor edits)

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...er%20%28GICC%29

There are various kinds of evidence. What constitutes evidence of Y2K-related embedded control system problems for one person, however, does not constitute evidence for another.

Some of the kinds of evidence include:

1) Documented failures of specific kinds of systems or system modules. (For numerous specific examples, see IEE case studies at http://www.iee.org.uk/2000risk/Casebook/casebook.htm There are at least 60 categories of cases involving embedded systems faults in The Institution of Electrical Engineers' [IEE] Embedded Systems Fault Casebook detailed there.)

2) Failures known to people working on embedded control systems that have not been documented and are not likely to be documented except by those exercising whistleblowing perogatives and risking legal repercussions and/or loss of their livelihood. [A list of threads from the GICC archives is attached below.]

3) Documented problems that were predicted in unremediated systems or system modules. [A list of threads from the GICC archives is attached below.]

4) Problems that were predicted in unremediated systems or system modules that have not been documented and are not likely to be documented except by those exercising whistleblowing perogatives and risking legal action and loss of one's livelihood. [A list of threads from the GICC archives is attached below.]

There are relatively few people who are coming forward to share what they know. There are major disincentives for doing so including the fact that by doing so, one can place his or her job in jeopardy. For a longer discussion of the reasons why there has been so little attention paid to ongoing problems, see the following items all of which can be found on my website at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon

~ April 12, 2000 presentation : Video, April 12, 2000, Panel program: "Y2K: What Happened and What Has Been Happening Since January 1?" http://www.stuarthrodman.com/video.htm. For a summary of Paula Gordon's slide presentation, see http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003I5R

~ John Koskinen Question & Answers piece, including the extensive appendices at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon/Q&A.html

~ my White Paper at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon

If one regards the form of evidence mentioned in #1 as being without merit, then it seems unlikely that any of the other three kinds of evidence would be at all compelling.

Of particular interest when it comes to the postings during January 2001 and through the present, is that there is an abundance of new information and observations coming out in these threads, information and observations that further help those who are researching the issue to put together the pieces of the puzzle. There are more names of companies that are having problems mentioned; and there are more people who are willing to talk about what is happening, particularly on an "off the record" basis. Some are posting using pseudonyms and real e-mail addresses. Others are using both pseudonyms and false e-mail addresses. A few are using their own names and valid addresses. When possible, individuals desiring first hand information may wish to contact some of these people who have frontline experience and see what they have to say.

The International Energy Agency in a report issued in May of 1999 stated that they expected that problems would occur after the rollover that would not be traceable to embedded problems. There is an explanation for how that could be: When a malfunction or minor failure or set of malfunctions or failures triggers other large or small problems, it may not be possible to sort out what happened when and it may not be possible to determine what systems played the critical role in a possible series of events.

Regarding the form of evidence known as "circumstantial evidence", an example can be given: If you have a doubling of the costs of pipeline explosions in the year 2000 (which was the case) and if an increase in pipeline explosions was expected and/or predicted owing to embedded control system malfunctions or failures (which also was the case), and if you have instances of explosions before or after the rollover that were linked to embedded control system or other Y2K-related problems, then one is on fairly sound ground in assuming that at least some of the pipeline explosions that occurred in the year 2000 were Y2K-related, especially in light of the fact that

1) they were predicted and/or expected,

2) those on the frontlines are reporting the causes as they know them to be, and/or

3) there are no other more plausible causal factors that have been or can be identified.

If remediation efforts were known to have been faulty or incomplete or if no remediation was done, then there is added basis for linking a problem to a possible Y2K-related cause.

It can take a Sherlock Holmes kind of approach to sort out this kind of evidence, and piece it together. It requires sifting through evidence from all the four different categories I have noted above. When independent reports from different sources come to light as they are now at an increasing pace, the basis for considering the strongest evidence, including the strongest circumstantial evidence becomes all the more compelling.

The Sherlock Holmes mode of inquiry is one that few people take to naturally and which few people are trained in. Add to this the technical complexity of Y2K-related embedded control system problems and there are bound to be very few people who recognize or know about the growing body of hard evidence as well as the growing body of compelling circumstantial evidence that both now exist.

I hope these comments might be helpful to others trying to put together the pieces of the puzzle.

Paula Gordon __________________________________________________

Thread 2

(A thread from GICC providing references to Y2K-related and suspected problems)

Y2K Bug: The Year 2000 in review http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=004J6U

The most under reported story in the year 2000 is the effect of the Y2K bug on systems in this country and around the world. Thanks to GICC and its many posters for providing information that would only be found in local papers. There were a lot of stories that had solid Y2K relationships and maybe 20 times that many that were only in the probable or possible category. Here is a partial list of stories that can be stated to be in the solid category from the last half of this year.

OK - Computer problems halt funds

Factory Shutdown blamed on Y2K bug

Hershey Foods Corp. Seeks New CEO

OR: Portland billing glitch flows downhill

OH: City resumes water shut-off notices

WI: Schools plan to drop Ameritech

TX: County comtemplates lawsuit over computers

OH - $5,000 Y2K glitch hits timeclock

MO: Thousands of Jackson County property tax statements incorrect

CEO: SAP Installation Caused Problems

MI: Computer woes a glitch

NV: DMV to get more armed guards

Fl: City may ditch Munis software

GA - City's technology head resigns

OK: Low Funds Caused By Computer Glitches

Ohio: Agencies' Y2K haste makes waste

WA - Audit finds errors cost sheriff's office $170k in lost grants

Sante Fe: PNM blamed for water-billing errors And these are widespread problems with police departments not being able to arrest someone based on their computer read-out.

Michigan Cops confounded by computer glitches

WA: Computer's flaws stymie police And this from the State University of New York.

SUNY blames Y2K for release of student loan files And this tax problem in Spokane

The deadline looms

And this from Australia

AU: INCIS Doomed To Failure

And in September . . .

Harvard University [Mass]: Y2K upgrade problems

NJ: Computer Glitch Forces Nursing Home To File For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and in August . . .

NV - Computer Glitches Hold Up Child-Welfare Checks

Spokane: Y2K problem: Health district failed to collect $190,000

Clay County in danger of flunking audit

E.Goshen Twnshp, PA y2k billing error

and in July . . .

Glitch delays property tax bills

People Soft upgrade alleviates U. Minnesota problems

That Y2K Bug Ain't Dead Yet

These are recent posts in the Y2K discussion group

NM: Medical Lab Recovering From Rough Start

Alberta: U of A promises to find answers for computer woes

CO: Fiscal fix has big costs for city

N.Y. Court Rules Against Xerox on Y2K Insurance Coverage These stories are in the probable category.

MI: State cancels contract to expand child support computer system

AK: UAMS chief cites progress on billing, collection problems

AU: Big jump in power industry complaints

AZ: St. Joe's offers workers buyouts

Alaska Airlines maintenance software failure The big story of this month is that the Alaska Airline jet that went down in January of 2000 was due to have its horizontal stabilizer replaced in December of 1999. The new maintenance software installed failed to notify the maintenance workers of the need to change the part until 3 days after the crash. The FAA has been checking the maintenance software of all the airlines to make sure that the problem isn't widespread. Here is the possible Y2K connection to planes falling out of the sky, trains derailing and other disasters that are caused by parts that had not been changed expediently.

Here is a link to some graphs on nuclear SCRAMs and refinery capacity. The oil graphs were done by L. Cassels Hunter.

Nuclear power SCRAMs graph and Oil capacity graph

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), December 28, 2000

Answers

And here are some businesses that had Y2K problems

Whirlpool to Cut Up to 6,300 Jobs

Beverly Enterprises posts net loss in quarter

Owens Corning Files for Bankruptcy Protection Owens Corning has commenced a Declaratory Judgment action against Factory Mutual Insurance Co. and six other carriers in Delaware Superior Court (Approx. March 17), seeking coverage for Y2K remediation costs under two all-risks policies. The amount sought is unknown but quarterly statements from Owens Corning suggests that it spent some $160 million in Y2K remediation between 1995 and 1999.

INSURANCE COVERAGE DISPUTES

ConnectiCare, Inc.

England: Y2K to blame for Compel profit slump

Informix relates Y2K troubles

Hartco Corporation Reports

Hershey Foods Licks Computer Woes

TransNet Reports

Whirlpool whipped by Prudential

Programmer's Paradise, Inc. Reports

ILOG Reports

AZ: 'Trib' circulation drops from Y2K billing delays

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), December 28, 2000.

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Nuclear Power Sector: for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003Vyr

Energy Sector - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003VxC

Energy Sector postings - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003Vyf

Brazil Oil Spill: for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003VzX

Railway incidents - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003Vzi

Australian aviation fuel problem - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003Vzp

Y2K Malfunctions in Nuke Plants - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W00

Explosions and Fires Summary - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W0O

Venezuelan and other energy sector problems - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W04

Energy Sector concerns - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W0K

Insurance and legal concerns - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W09

Plant and pipeline explosions - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W0A

Airplane related concerns - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W0G

International glitches - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W0Z

Senate Y2K Committee Report 2/29/2000 for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W2r

Oil accidents and problems - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W2v

Refinery problems contributing to spike in fuel prices - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W3H

Oil sector and railroad derailments - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W35

Pipeline breaks - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W8b

Oil Refinery Concerns - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003Vze

Airline Sector Postings for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003VzL

Manhole cover explosions - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W9L

Energy sector items - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W9U

Miscellaneous sources of information re Y2K - for the archives http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-a...l?msg_id=003W9N

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), December 28, 2000.

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Thread 2

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=004WFo

More on 1-1-2001 Norwegian train failure (Computer Risks listserv) greenspun.com : LUSENET : Grassroots Information Coordination Center (GICC) : One Thread Source: RISKS DIGEST 21.21, 25 January 2001 [see source info at end of this post] Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2001 05:38:49 +0100 From: Espen Andersen Subject: Re: 54 weeks in a year? (RISKS-21.18)

The discussion of the Norwegian State Railway (NSB) troubles with the 2000/2001 transition focuses on fairly advanced causes, such as the 54-week situation. The discussants (including our esteemed moderator) seem by this to believe that the NSB is a competent and responsible organization. As recent events (such as a horrible rail accident with 19 dead where it turned out the railroad had a number of Single Point of Failure situations, or the fact that the new high-speed "Signature" trains had been built with axles that cannot tolerate high speeds and turns at the same time) has shown, this organization has completely lost the public's confidence (as witnessed by the recent, forced departure of its CEO), as has its locomotive supplier ADTranz.

My hypothesis is that the 2000/2001 bug was a regular millennium bug, found in 1999. The problem was then "fixed" by turning the clock back one year to buy time, and promptly forgotten. Now NSB and ADTranz has turned back the clock back once again. This time, with the newspaper and RISKS interest, they are unlikely to forget.

Espen Andersen , Norwegian School of Management (www.bi.no) +47 6755 7177 European Research Dir., The Concours Group www.concoursgroup.com

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Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2001 08:35:48 +0200 From: "Bob Dubery" Subject: Re: 54 weeks in a year?

Standards are great - but it's RISKy to assume that they are being adhered to just because they're published and sensible.

I led a y2k remediation project in 1999. I saw the source code for literally thousands of programs. Some code anticipated a leap year, but never exactly to the standards (IE the code would have accepted 1900 as a leap year). Very seldom were date and time presented in any kind of standard format. I'm willing to bet that if I asked all the programmers at my office what ISO and RFCs are not all of them would know about ISO, and less than half would have heard of RFCs - and nearly all of them wouldn't see the point.

This sounds disparaging, I know. I'm a programmer myself, so I do know whereof I speak. I never worked for an employer that stipulated adherence to any ISO standard. I have dealt with 3 "Web design houses" who had no knowledge of RFCs.

If standards had been adhered to then why did we have a Y2k problem? And why do we know have systems unable to roll into 2001? ------------------------------

Date: 26 Dec 2000 (LAST-MODIFIED) From: RISKS-request@csl.sri.com Subject: Abridged info on RISKS (comp.risks) ...

-- Andre Weltman (aweltman@state.pa.us), January 31, 2001

End of GICC thread

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Thread 3

Manhole cover explosions

http://www.timebomb2000.com/cgi-bin...ic&f=1&t=002279

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Thread 4

Health: Could Drug Shortages Be Related to Y2K-Related Problems?

This thread includes a very long list of URLs pertaining primarily to drug shortages. A general statement on the topic of drug shortages can be found on a recent thread on GICC now in the archives under "Health": "Y2K-related problems and the pharmaceutical industry? More predicted coincidences?" http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=004v14

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Thread 5

Pipeline Accident Summary http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=004A7u

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Thread 6

Water Main Breaks & an Oil Spill Disaster: Role of Computer Glitches http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=005dns

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Thread 7

More Thoughts on Ongoing Y2K Issues http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=0057ji

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Thread 8

List of embedded problems at Y2K roll-over http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=004YKr (Request password from spider@freeze.com ) 2000/01/01 The clocks for the Automated Radar Terminal System and other clocks for security and access stopped. http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=002BT7

From www.healthcare.ecri.org reported on 2000/01/01 Embedded chips that failed on rollover

BAS-2000 building automation system

TP 1030 cardiotocograph

Cardio Life TEC 71 defibrillator

WWA laboratory information system

Delta patient admission system

Sirecust 455-1 data management system

Aerodydne Ultratherm humidifier

Midas 2100

Explorer Mobile X-ray Unit

CPC perfusion controller

FM6 fetal monitor

Passport ELXG patient monitor

Omni 9 blood gas analyzer

ST Guard computer ECG Trend Monitor

SLi Linier Accelerator

Bactlert blood culture incubator detector

AK100 and AK200 hemodialysis units

Sterilog printer autoclave printer

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), February 05, 2001

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Other Sources of Information

The President's Council issued their final report in June of 2000. It is available at http://www.y2k.gov/docs/LASTREP3.htm A GICC Thread on the President's Council's Report Y2K Final Report is at http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=002tqR

The Final Senate Y2K Committee report is dated February 29, 2000. (Pages 37-49 contain a list of Y2K glitches.) For the report itself, see: http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/final.pdf A thread on the Senate Committee's Report can be found at the following GICC URL: [url]http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l? msg_id=003W2r[/url] There is also a statement in the Senate report to the effect that the causes of Y2K-related problems may not be reported and the extent of the problems may never be known for sure.

IY2KCC final report posted http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=002cxk A GICC thread concerning the IY2KCC's final report is at http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=002cxk .

The September 2000 GAO report is available at www.gao.gov/daybook/000925.htm . GAO limited the primary focus of their report to IT system remediation efforts within Federal government agencies with very little attention to complex integrated systems or government regulatory and other responsibilities that extend to the private sector. (See threads on the September 2000 GAO Report) http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...l?msg_id=003rxv and at http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontim...cID=11806.topic )

May 2001 State Department Report: "Year 2000 Lessons Learned: Strategies for Successful Global Project Management" Office of the Inspector General, U.S. State Department, Report No. 1-IT-008 http://oig.state.gov/pdf/y2klessons.pdf (For a thread on State Dept May 2001 Report: Year 2000 Lessons Learned, see http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...25548#post25548 )

Glitch Central http://www.ciaosystems.com/GlitchCentralGuts.htm

January 24 -25, 2000 Conference in Livermore, California sponsored by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (http://cgsr.llnl.gov Click on January 24 - 25, 2000 Conference on Y2K, then click on Agenda) See especially presentations by Olivia Bosch, Rosanne Hynes, and others.

The references in the January 17 Comments and Rating piece at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon.

The Grassroots Information Coordination Center (GICC) Archives: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...er%20%28GICC%29 Categories of archived material include the following as of August 2001

Administrative/Sysop (49) Aerospace, Satelites (90) Agriculture (47) Air Transportation (913) Aircraft Incidents (173) Business and the Economy (873) Business: Banking (23) Business: Stock Exchanges (253) California Energy Crisis (889) Chemical/Radiation (81) Computer Glitches (128) Computers (542) Cyberwarfare (41) Drought (118) Earthquakes (16) Education/Kids (88) Electric Power (866) Energy Crisis (2435) Energy Crisis-Electric (383) Energy Crisis-Natural Gas (115) Energy Crisis-Propane (13) Energy crisis-Oil (120) Energy- Alternative (15) Environment (263) Feb 29/Leap Year (58) Fires and Explosions (274) Food Supply (119) Gas and Oil (334) Gas and Oil Pipelines (97) Global Financial Crisis (194) Global Warming (21) Government - Congressional Activities (19) Government - Federal (179) Government - International/Nation States (173) Government - Local (176) Government - State (141) Government Services (77) Hackers & Computer Deviance (436) Health Care (112) Health: care delivery/hospital/pharmacy (56) Health: public health alerts (126) Humor (13) International (288) Internet (216) Land Transportation (335) Lay offs (118) Legal (35) Media Coverage (29) Middle East (42) Military (131) Miscellaneous (305) Nuclear Power (302) Public Safety (108) Refineries (143) Reflecting on Y2K (142) Solar activity (33) Supply-Chain (15) Telecommunications (298) Terrorist activity (20) Water and Sewage (383) Weather (94) World trade (14) World water crisis (122) Y2K Overview (86) Uncategorized

The Institution of Electrical Engineers: The Millennium Problem in Embedded Systems Dates Potentially Causing Problems in Computer Systems (from today to 2100) Published 2nd April 2001 at http://www.iee.org.uk/PAB/SCS/problemdates.htm

Y2K Discussion Group: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-an...cussion%20group A password is needed. Request password by e-mailing: spider@freeze.com

Also see www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon for additional material and references on Y2K including

~ "John Koskinen's Responses to Questions from Paula Gordon Concerning National and Global Aspects of Y2K" March 22, 2000. See www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeopl...n/Q&A.html

~ "1/30/2001 Summary of an Engineer's Observations Regarding the Status of Ongoing Y2K-Related Embedded Systems and Complex Integrated Systems "Problems" is also posted at www.gwu.edu/%7Ey2k/keypeo...ngObs.html

[End of crosspost from TB2K]

-- Anonymous, August 03, 2001