July 11, 2001

Florida's black voter turnout grossly overstated

By Frank J. Murray THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Widely quoted assertions that black voters cast 15 percent of Florida's ballots in the 2000 presidential election are wrong far beyond any acceptable margin of error, The Washington Times has learned.

Official computerized reports obtained by The Times, identifying each voter by name and race, contradict claims that turnout by blacks has increased by more than 50 percent since 1996.

Contrary to all reports, black voters on Nov. 7 constituted 10 percent of Florida's turnout -- 610,616 by actual count, as opposed to estimates that routinely top 900,000.

Simply achieving the widely reported 15 percent share of the turnout of 6,086,109 would require that an unheard of 97.7 percent of all black registered voters had gone to the polls.

"People just throw out statistics. Where do they get this stuff? It's basically a guess," Clayton Roberts, who heads the Florida Division of Elections, told The Times before the full file was assembled.

The actual 10 percent black share of the votes cast on Nov. 7 rose only slightly from 1996's official record, when blacks cast 9.5 percent of the 5.4 million votes.

Among other serious consequences, the mistaken 15 percent estimate helped lead to the inaccurate televised declarations that Al Gore had won the state, narrowing the race by discouraging some George W. Bush supporters from voting in parts of Florida where polls still were open. The narrowness of Mr. Bush's lead nourished hopes that the Florida result could be reversed by recounts in precincts dominated by minorities.

The precise count of who voted is derived from Florida's "active voter file," a public record compiled by Mr. Roberts' office. It contains the names, addresses and political affiliations of active voters with their voting records for each election since 1992.

States such as Florida that are subject to the federal Voting Rights Act also must include racial data in voter files.

The mistaken 15 percent estimates originated on Election Day with Voter News Service (VNS), a media cooperative. It quickly was adopted as doctrine by reporters and by voting analyst David Bositis at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies even though VNS national numbers never showed a broad surge in black turnout.

"Our Florida estimate was at 15 percent of the turnout. In 1996, it was 10 percent. It wouldn't surprise me if they were both actually at 12.5 percent," VNS statistician Murray Edelman said in an interview before The Times obtained precise data.

"Once the numbers get out, they have a life all their own. People who have an agenda can use them in ways that serve them or to make a point," said Mr. Edelman, who is editorial director for VNS.

VNS conducted exit polls in every state. It based Florida estimates on 1,785 interviews, including 352 with black voters. Mr. Edelman said the other key VNS finding, that only 7 percent of Florida blacks voted for Mr. Bush, was an estimate and that his personal view is that the figure may range from 3 percent to 10 percent.

"Seven percent is our best estimate of preference," Mr. Edelman said.

When The Times reviewed final outcomes from five Miami area precincts where 93 percent of the 6,008 registered voters were black, Mr. Gore consistently drew 86 percent to 88 percent of the vote.

Mr. Edelman said VNS did not use the available racial data to choose a racially representative sample of precincts for interviews and said the data also may have been tainted by "clustering" interviews at big-city precincts where many blacks live.

"That's a good idea," he replied when asked why he didn't use racial data in states required to compile it.

"In Florida, the black share of the vote grew from 10 to 15 percent of the total, a 50 percent increase," Mr. Bositis wrote in a scholarly paper published and distributed by his organization, a widely quoted source for many political writers and analysts who perpetuated that mistake in virtually every news report and commentary, including two commentaries in this newspaper since July 1.

Mr. Bositis said he lifted numbers selectively from the New York Times, a VNS subscriber that published exit interview data in its election review issue Nov. 12. He reacted testily when asked why he would base sweeping conclusions on partial figures without all the data, which he said his organization couldn't afford to buy.

"It's my choice. I can do whatever I want. I'm the foremost authority on black voting in the country. I don't work for the Census Bureau," Mr. Bositis said.

John Allen Poulos, a Temple University mathematics professor who specializes in probability and statistics, criticized such methods, saying that using exit polls to detect the minute gap between Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush in Florida was like "trying to measure the difference between two bacteria with a yardstick."

"Wariness is well-placed. Often numbers gain a certain currency simply by being quoted as this number has," Mr. Poulos said.

Many election commentaries used as their cornerstone what the Philadelphia Inquirer called the "surge in the African American vote in November," including Florida's inaccurate 15 percent turnout figure.

Without such a surge, Inquirer reporter Eugene Kiely wrote, "That messy recount in Florida never would have happened."

The Washington Post specifically reported that "893,000 black voters cast ballots in Florida," unknowingly exaggerating the Nov. 7 turnout by 282,384 and ignoring the fact that that number would represent 96 percent of the state's 934,261 registered black voters.

St. Petersburg Times political reporter Lucy Morgan went further, saying black voters comprised nearly 16 percent of the state electorate, which would substantially exceed Florida's registered black voter count.

Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, a national firm with Florida roots, has long been a lone voice disputing the 15 percent estimate and guessing at 10 percent in an unpublished February interview with this newspaper.

"I started saying it on Election Night, but nobody paid any attention to me," Mr. Coker said yesterday. "It wasn't too hard to do the math and say they jumped the gun on this one."

Political history professor Allen Lichtman, of American University, used "ecological regression" to estimate black turnout at 11 percent in his report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, but that analysis was eclipsed by disputes over other findings in the report.

-- Anonymous, July 11, 2001

Answers

"It's my choice. I can do whatever I want. I'm the foremost authority on black voting in the country. I don't work for the Census Bureau," Mr. Bositis said.

What a jerk!

Foremost authority in his own [not reputable] mind. But that's just a guess...

-- Anonymous, July 11, 2001

Also known as a legend in his own mind?

-- Anonymous, July 11, 2001

That whole Florida election, and its aftermath, and revelations, was GROSS! Why bother to pick out just one little corner of it? It will be basic material for "investigative" research, reports, and books, for years to come. A real boondoggle, up close and personal. An education into how political power is manipulated all across the nation, with special emphasis on the final straw, Florida.

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001

Gordon, someone who failed in an election against Janet Reno (perhaps for Florida AG) who know writes occasionally for NewsMax, says that he raised the issue of the punch ballots in one of the campaigns and Reno refused to address it. (Sure, I can understand not letting your opponent set the agenda.) Would be cool if that issue came up during her current run for Governor there.

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001

Reno is an intriguing part of political history. Does anyone *not* think she is someone "out of place" yet strangely right in the middle of it all? Her name first came up with me in a book called Blue Thunder. It was the story of Don Aranno (Sp?) who ended up in Miami building the Donzi boats, Cigarette boats, and other such high speed marine toys, and his alleged connection to organized crime.

It was also the story of Meyer Lansky and how, and who, he controlled in both Dade County, and greater Florida. Reno was the assistant state DA, working for the guy who subsequently retired from public office and devoted his time then to Lansky and his cronies. Reno was his handpicked replacement, according to the story.

So, Reno was active down there, rumored to be "connected" to certain important people who controlled government policy in Florida and even in Washington. This was all before Hillary C. tapped her for USAG. As I said, a very interesting person, all in all, and a great mystery. Perhaps one of those mysteries most common folk don't even "want" to know the details about. Perhaps one of those mysteries it is dangerous to even try to unravel at this point in time?

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001

I hadn't heard of Reno's mob connections, Gordon. VERY intersting, especially when put together with Clinton's mob friends from Hot Springs.

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001

By a strange coincidence:

San Fran Gate

Fire burns down historic Arkansas saloon that was once Al Capone's hangout

Thursday, July 12, 2001 ©2001 Associated Press

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2001/07/12/n ational0611EDT0489.DTL

(07-12) 03:11 PDT HOT SPRINGS, Ark. (AP) --

A historic saloon that once served as gangster Al Capone's hangout and until the 1960s offered illegal gambling was destroyed during a fire.

The cause of the blaze that burned through the Ohio Club and adjacent Old Plaza Hotel building Wednesday wasn't immediately known.

The club boasted stories of visits by Capone and his nemesis Bugs Moran, and big-name entertainers such as Mae West and Al Jolson played there.

During a recent renovation, workers found several bullet holes in the original ceiling. Behind fake walls and floorboards, they also found paraphernalia for a wire service operated for bookies in the 1940s.

"I can almost remember the year when the state police raided it," said Wanda Thompson, a former bartender at the club. "They came in and broke the gambling paraphernalia, took slot machines and busted the tables up."

Fire Marshal Ed Davis said the Ohio Club, built in 1905, was a total loss, while the 1910 hotel was salvageable.

Building owner Ken Wheatley said he would try to preserve what he could in the club, including its ornate bar that had been imported from England.

"We're trying to save the facades to keep the memories of those buildings alive," Wheatley said.

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001

These stories of mob connections come out in strange ways and it's sort of like stumbling over a rock in your path. You start out looking for one thing (like a good story about a racing boat king) and end up face to face with the unexpected.

As far as Reno, just ask yourself, did she *ever* use the DOJ, including the FBI, to go after any organized crime? Nope. Of course Bobby Kennedy tried that as AG and look what it got him.

Then there are the confirmed stories that J. Edgar loved to play the horses and did so on a regular basis. Unconfirmed is that he routinely got some "tips" about which ones to bet on so he could make some clean money for himself. A neat way to grease the old wheels of justice. What we do know about J. Edgar is that he claimed there was no such thing as the Mafia, or organized crime.

Oh what a tangled web we weave..........

-- Anonymous, July 12, 2001