[OG Note: Everything this article says is true. It's missing one more ingredient, though--a good proportion of the populace, whether staying or evacuating, will be inebriated. You can imagine. Also, when the winds reach a certain level--could be as low as 50 mph, can't remember--the Mississippi River bridges and the Lake Ponchartrain Causeway are closed. That leaves only the northern New Orleans-Baton Rouge corridor and I-10 east available for evac, just when people are getting panicky. Luckily, my child now lives on the other side of the Causeway ]

Times-Picayune

New Orleans a mixing bowl for hurricane disaster, experts say

By JANET McCONNAUGHEY The Associated Press 5/18/01 6:41 AM

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Take a look at the landscape of the Big Easy -- some of it as much as 9 feet below sea level -- and it's easy to see how a hurricane could make the city a mixing bowl for an environmental disaster.

A big hurricane could overflow the long line of flood protection levees around New Orleans, swamping the landfills, oil and gas facilities, and chemical plants within its borders.

While the floods that hit rural eastern North Carolina after Hurricane Floyd two years ago receded quickly and actually helped dilute much of the pollution, experts say New Orleans would be a toxic, stagnant lake for months.

"It's going to be a catastrophe," said Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center. "There's going to be thousands of people who are going to have to be rescued and emergency medical facilities set up. That is just a huge problem."

"We still don't even know how we're going to handle that, let alone the consequences of `What do we do afterward?"'

With 461,522 residents, New Orleans is the nation's biggest city with a low point below sea level. It lies between the Mississippi River, nearly a half-mile wide, and Lake Pontchartrain, half the size of Rhode Island.

Interstate 10 is the only way out and estimates put the city's evacuation time at 72 hours, Louisiana's longest.

"All those things make it particularly susceptible and of particular concern to us," said Col. Michael Brown, head of the state office of emergency planning.

What really scares planners is that a hurricane storm surge could essentially dump Lake Pontchartrain, which forms the city's northern border, into the city. Experts believe a direct hurricane hit could plunge the city's lowest areas under 19 feet of water.

Once survivors were rescued from rooftops, crews would have to fish out thousands of corpses from the water, van Heerden said.

"We're in the middle of summer. There are all these chemicals and raw sewage that got into the water. A lot of dead animals. We assume by this time you've got all the dead people out," van Heerden said. "That water tends to be very toxic. Now you've got to decide what to do with it."

Reclaiming the city after a hurricane would almost certainly mean pumping vast amounts of the dirty water into the Mississippi River or Lake Pontchartrain.

Van Heerden said the lake route would kill several thousand acres of nearby swamps and marshes, while pumping it into the river would affect the Mississippi Delta and the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers would probably cut holes in the levees to drain water back into Lake Pontchartrain, said Jay Combe, coastal hydraulic engineer in charge of the "unwatering" plan. That would leave the water about a foot above sea level, the normal level of the lake.

New Orleans has never faced such a worst-case scenario. The closest the city ever came was in 1965 when Hurricane Betsy's 8- to 10-foot storm surge drowned some parts of the city in 7 feet of water.

Combe said New Orleans residents shouldn't wait around to see if the city survives another hurricane.

"Get out of Dodge. Get out early. Leave when the leaving is good. There's no portion of my grandson that I'd be willing to sacrifice to stay home and protect my home from vandals," Combe said.

Emergency planning studies have found that fewer than half of New Orleans' residents would evacuate if there is a hurricane, and the rest would either choose not to or not be able to.

Combe recommends that residents get out when officials first recommend evacuation, even if the National Hurricane Center is talking about only a 10 percent chance of a storm making landfall.

"That's when you've got to leave," Combe said. "Lots of times you leave when it's not necessary. But that's more acceptable than the other."

-- Anonymous, May 19, 2001