Emerging Infrastructure Failures and the "NIMBY" Syndrome

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COMMENTARY-OP/ED

Emerging Infrastructure Failures and the "NIMBY" Syndrome

By: C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst, Emergency Response & Research Institute

According to a Wednesday, May 16, 2001 report in the Associated Press, "Power problems could spread into the Northeast this summer, electricity grids in Texas and the Pacific Northwest are being watched closely, and California could average 20 hours of blackouts a week, electricity industry experts say." Further, the AP article continues, "The North American Electric Reliability Council, an industry-sponsored watchdog organization, said in a report Tuesday that California's power problems this summer are likely to be worse than even state officials have predicted, with 260 hours of rolling blackouts -- an average of 20 hours a week -- likely because of a power shortfall that could be as much as 5,000 megawatts during peak demand periods."

Probably more troubling than the fact that there may not be enough electricity to go around in several parts of the country is a possibility of as yet undetermined "cascading failures" that may also result because of a loss of electricity. For instance, the Sacramento Bee newspaper, on 16 May 2001, warned of the possibility of water shortages caused by a shut-down of pumps that feed municipal water systems. According to the Bee article, "The Department of Health Services also suggested alerting consumers to immediately discontinue any non-essential water usage" during water outages or low water pressure." Specifically, concerns were raised that insufficient water pressure could be maintained to feed fire hydrants, which are essential during an upcoming fire season in California.

Why is this happening?

In the opinion of ERRI crisis analysts, the primary problem involves the "NIMBY" (Not-In-My-Back-Yard) syndrome. It is a philosophy that essentially says, "yeah, I want and will use more electricity, but I don't want any power plants or power lines in my neighborhood." This is especially true in California where no new electrical generating capacity have been built in several years, largely due restrictive environmental laws, "faulty" deregulation, and a large number of environmental activists and/or protests. Similar situations are also found in a number of other states, where new laws and public attitudes have resulted in diminished electrical generating capacity...or dramatically increased the price thereof.

Becoming a National Security Problem??

Our current dependence on foreign sources of petroleum places the U.S.A. at a disadvantage and may subject it to "economic terrorism" and what could be called "extortion," perpetrated by petroleum-producing countries in the future. As America turns itself into an "information society," rather than a "smokestack economy," the issue of plentiful and reliable electricity becomes increasingly important. Our overall strategic superiority is often based in the advantages that we obtain from our computer-based technology and therein also lies a vulnerability that can be exploited by enemies using asymmetric means...to include attacks on our power grids and other infrastructure. We must build and protect a reliable electrical system in America if she is to continue to prosper.

Some Suggested Solutions:

Of course, everyone supports efforts to protect the environment. After all, regardless of what we do, we are all going to have to live in whatever environment we produce. Virtually everyone wants clean air, clean water, and cheap electricity. But, recent events would suggest that, for at least the short term, some environmental compromises may have to be made in order to meet America's vociferous appetite for energy. Along with these short term fixes, it is respectfully suggested that America must undertake longer term measures that are more "environmentally friendly" and still meet the U.S. need for additional power.

Conservation, solar-power, wind-power, and other innovative technologies are all solutions to the problem, but so far they have not received the necessary attention, public support, or funding or to actually make them effective alternatives. As the price per kilowatt hour continues to increase, however, these alternatives become more attractive to investors and to the power-generation industry as a whole. Renewable sources of energy like wind and solar power require a good deal of capital investment in order to build the gathering devices that are needed to generate electricity. But, these renewable sources of energy would appear to be more viable as their price becomes comparable to more conventional fossil fuel sources.

Conclusions/The Future??

In the short term, it may be necessary to use more coal, petroleum-based, nuclear, and other conventional sources of energy as a "stop-gap measure" to continue the viability of the American economy and ensure our strategic military superiority...but, longer term plans must more seriously consider renewable energy sources that are less damaging to the environment. Now that we have recognized this crisis, the time has come for both short and long term actions to be taken in Washington. EmergencyNet News continues to monitor the strategic and economic impact of the on-going energy crisis and will provide you with additional reports as the situation develops...

http://www.emergency.com/ennday.htm

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), May 19, 2001


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