Wednesday, May 16, 2001 - 12:10 a.m. Pacific

NW winter blackouts feared

By Hal Bernton Seattle Times staff reporter

The Pacific Northwest risks California-style rolling blackouts this coming winter if the drought lingers through summer and fall, according to power-supply forecasts. Blackouts are possible as early as November if a cold snap hits the region.

"We're very concerned about next winter, much more so than the summer," said Mike Hansen, a spokesman for the Bonneville Power Administration, which markets federal power from a network of Columbia River hydropower projects.

The regional risks were detailed in a national power-supply report released yesterday by the North American Electric Reliability Council. The report also said Californians could face as many as 15 blackouts a week during the coming summer, when air conditioners soak up energy and power demand peaks.

According to the report, the Pacific Northwest should make it through the summer without power shortages, but "unless significant amounts of precipitation occur ... over the next several months, energy shortfalls are likely for the winter."

The region is experiencing its worst drought since 1977.

Seattle City Light officials are hoping to get through the winter with a mix of power generated from their own facilities and power purchased from the BPA. But concerned about a shortfall, they recently received approval from the City Council to secure a contract for up to 100 additional megawatts of power. It takes about 1,200 megawatts to run the city at any given time.

"We don't expect blackouts. But it's probably prudent to plan for a contingency given the situation," said Paula Green of Seattle City Light.

The new report sketches a national picture of tight power supplies, with New York City and parts of New England expected to push regional systems to near capacity this summer. But the harshest forecasts are for the West.

The report says operators of California's electrical-transmission system have been overly optimistic in estimating summer power supplies. The report predicts up to 260 hours of blackouts and said peak-period power shortages could range from 4,500 to 5,500 megawatts. That's enough to serve about 3.75 million homes.

A spokesman for California Gov. Gray Davis disputed the forecast, saying it assumes the worst. "We are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best," said Steve Maviglio.

The Pacific Northwest section of the report was developed with the help of the Northwest Power Pool, a Portland-based association that tracks regional electricity supplies.

Don Badley, system operator for the Northwest Power Pool, said a wet fall and a mild winter would allow the region to avoid blackouts. But hydropower, which supplies about 66 percent of the region's electricity, depends on reservoir water.

By September, the reservoirs could be down to extremely low levels. If there's plenty of fall rain and a warm winter, the region should be able to avoid blackouts, Badley said. If the rain falters and cold weather stokes power demand, there could be big problems.

Another wild card would be unexpected power-plant outages.

"The situation will be much more difficult (than last winter)," Badley said. "Not every utility is going to be in trouble. But we're looking at a regionwide problem."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/134295801_blackout16m.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), May 16, 2001