POL - Bush's stock rises in Illinois

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Chicago Trib

Bush's stock rises in Illinois
President enjoys rebound in state that backed Gore

By Jeff Zeleny
Tribune political reporter
May 14, 2001

Illinois voters have warmed to President Bush in the months since they voted against him in lopsided fashion, with more than half now holding a favorable opinion of the new president and nearly three in five approving of the job he's done in the White House, according to a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

While the national presidential race was the closest in more than a century, Bush lost Illinois by 12 points.

Despite the bitter political and legal wrangling that clouded the election outcome for weeks, Illinois voters now like Bush better than they did when he was a candidate, the survey found.

That bump in popularity, however, has not translated into clear enthusiasm for policy initiatives that have become the cornerstone of the young Bush presidency.

Despite the sagging economic picture that has framed the opening months of Bush's tenure, opinions are mixed about whether the massive, 11-year tax cut plan he is pushing as a fiscal stimulant will perk up consumer optimism. And by wide margins, voters said big tax cuts will end up shortchanging important government programs and making it harder to keep the federal budget balanced and reduce the national debt.

Voters like Bush's plan to push construction of a national missile defense shield, even though many foreign governments have soundly denounced it as a violation of international treaties.

At the same time, however, views are uneven on Bush's handling of environmental issues. Though voters said they think Bush should put the environment ahead of growing energy demands, they also backed him in a fight with environmentalists on a plan to open an Alaskan wildlife refuge to oil drilling.

In the first Tribune/WGN poll taken since Bush assumed the White House, the president's job approval rating among Illinois voters was 57 percent, with 24 percent disapproving of his performance. Perhaps more significant, 54 percent of those surveyed said they held a favorable opinion of Bush, up from 45 percent in a Tribune/WGN poll in October. The share of voters who said they had an unfavorable opinion of Bush dropped to 29 percent in the latest survey from 39 percent in October.

The Tribune/WGN poll of 898 active registered voters across Illinois was conducted May 3 through 7 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect.

Questions of economy

Clearly, the biggest challenge of the new administration is the economy, which began to sputter at the end of former President Bill Clinton's second term after years of unprecedented growth. Although 47 percent of respondents said neither Bush nor Clinton is to blame for the economic downturn, a near similar number expressed skepticism about Bush's ability to avoid a recession.

At the same time, by a 2-1 ratio, voters said they approve of the president's handling of the economy.

The survey showed Illinois families are starting to feel the pinch of the slowing economy.

In the October poll, 34 percent of those surveyed said they not only had enough money on hand to pay their bills but also enough to tuck away or spend on extra purchases. In the new poll, only 28 percent of Illinois voters said they have more than enough income to make ends meet.

Though a $1.35 trillion compromise version of Bush's tax cut plan was being debated in Congress as the poll was conducted, voters were divided about whether it would be good for the economy. Forty-two percent said a tax cut would make them more optimistic, while 44 percent said they would be less optimistic.

But a wide majority was skeptical of the plan, which would commit the government to reducing taxes over 11 years. Nearly 60 percent of voters surveyed said they would prefer the government to enact tax cuts one year at a time and not commit to cuts years in advance.

Though Bush's stock among Illinois voters has clearly risen, he gets his best ratings from residents of the collar counties and Downstate, a result largely mirroring the outcome of the Nov. 7 election when Bush was trounced by Democrat Al Gore in the city and Cook County suburbs. In the Republican dominated collar counties, his approval rate was 65 percent. In Chicago it was only 35 percent.

Among men surveyed across Illinois, 60 percent held favorable opinions of Bush, while only 48 percent of women did. Forty-nine percent of survey respondents who described themselves as independent voters held a favorable opinion of Bush.

Pledges and platforms

During his campaign, Bush often talked of bringing a more civil tone to politics in Washington. Half of Illinois voters said the president has lived up to the pledge, while 28 percent of the poll respondents said Bush has not. Among active voters in Chicago, which leans strongly Democratic, 40 percent said Bush has not followed through on his promise of civility while 36 percent said he has.

A strong majority of voters gave good marks to Bush for his handling of relations with China, with 59 percent approving and 24 percent disapproving. The poll was taken just days after the Pentagon announced -- and then quickly reversed -- a decision to cut off military contact with China and weeks after a testy standoff with China over its temporary detention of a U.S. spy plane crew that made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island after colliding with a Chinese fighter plane.

Voters were more divided when asked whether they would favor selling U.S. military equipment to Taiwan, even if it would worsen relations with China. The poll indicated 39 percent favored selling arms to Taiwan, while 41 percent opposed such a plan.

Two Bush initiatives that received strong backing from those surveyed were his plan to develop a national defense shield against nuclear missile attack and a push to open a remote stretch of the Alaskan wilderness, now protected as a wildlife preserve, to oil drilling.

The missile shield plans won backing from 50 percent of voters, while 28 percent said they opposed the idea, which Russia and many other nuclear powers contend would violate arms control treaties. On the Alaskan drilling question, 49 percent of voters favored the Bush plan while 37 percent opposed it.

With gas prices soaring and politicians scrambling to react to growing public demands for action, balancing the nation's energy demands with environmental concerns has created a political challenge for Bush, who was a Texas oilman before he became governor of that state.

Increased energy production and exploration is a hallmark of the administration's energy policies, which environmentalists contend are shortsighted and ignore conservation efforts.

Illinois voters were mixed on Bush's handling of environmental issues, with 36 percent approving, 34 percent disapproving and 30 percent offering no opinion. While half of those surveyed said it was more important to protect the environment than to boost energy supplies, 36 percent said environmental rules should be eased to increase energy supplies such as gas, oil, coal and electricity.

The poll was conducted as Bush passed the benchmark of his first 100 days in office, the traditional point for assessing the acceptance of new administrations in Washington since the days of Franklin Roosevelt.

-- Anonymous, May 14, 2001


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