American Spectator

Bush's Coming Gut Check

by Joseph Shattan

Here's a joke that's currently making the rounds in Israel:

"A Texan, a Frenchman and an Israeli are on a plane flying over the Pacific Ocean when the engines fail. The plane crash lands on a Pacific island and the three are captured by a tribe of cannibals and taken to their Chief. The Chief tells the three captives that there's a custom on the island: Before the cannibals eat anyone, they grant that person one last wish. He then asks the Texan: 'What is your last wish?' The Texan replies, 'I want a two-inch steak with all the trimmings, Cajun fries, and a case of Bud.' The Chief motions to some of his tribesmen, who immediately run into the jungle and come back with the steak, the fries, and the beer. The Texan eats his meal and is thrown into the pot.

"Then the Frenchman is asked: 'What is your last wish?' He replies, 'I'd like a case of Dom Perignon and a big plate of escargots cooked in the French manner.' The Chief motions to his tribesmen, who immediately rush off into the jungle and bring back everything the Frenchman asked for. He eats and drinks his fill, then joins the Texan in the pot.

"The Chief then turns to the Israeli and asks, 'And what is your wish?' The Israeli looks the Chief in the eyes and replies, 'I want you to kick me in the behind as hard as you can.' Bewildered, the Chief shrugs his shoulders, asks the Israeli to turn around, and kicks him as hard as he can, whereupon the Israeli pulls out a gun and kills the Chief and all the other cannibals. The Texan and the Frenchman climb out of the pot, look at the Israeli in astonishment, and ask, 'If you had a gun, why didn't you do anything sooner?'

"The Israeli replies, 'What? And risk being condemned by the U.N. and the State Department for overreacting to insufficient provocation?'"

The point of this grim little jest, of course, is that ever since Yasir Arafat launched his latest war against Israel over half a year ago, a key goal of Israeli policymakers has been to avoid condemnation by either the U.S. or the U.N. Security Council. They have therefore kept Israel's response to the absolute minimum -- targeting the actual terrorists while avoiding, whenever possible, harming innocent civilians. Of course, this hasn't prevented the U.N. Human Rights Commission from denouncing Israel in the harshest terms, or the European left from calling for trade sanctions against Israel, or Arab leaders like Syria's Assad from informing Pope John Paul II that the Jews are just a bunch of latter-day Christ-killers. But at least it's stopped the U.S. from going along with any U.N. resolution calling for a total Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Provoking Israel into a major escalation that would trigger international intervention on the Palestinians' behalf is thought to be Arafat's primary goal -- and the Israelis are refusing to play into his hands.

Unfortunately, it looks like Arafat will soon succeed in provoking a major Israeli reprisal.

On May 7, Israeli naval forces captured a Lebanese fishing boat loaded with a massive quantity of arms and ammunition and bound for the Palestinian-Authority controlled Gaza Strip. Captured weapons included SA-7 Strella hand-held anti-aircraft missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and anti-tank mines. "According to one military intelligence source," the Jerusalem Post reported, "other weapons found on the Lebanese ship are powerful enough to strike at Tel Aviv."

On May 8, Israel's Prime Minister Sharon disclosed that three other sea-borne shipments may have reached Gaza before the fourth was intercepted by Israel. Sharon called the Palestinian stockpiling of missiles, rockets, and other weapons outlawed by the Oslo Accords, "very dangerous."

So now the game begins in earnest -- and here is how it will unfold over the next few weeks. Sometime soon, Palestinian missiles will slam into downtown Tel Aviv. The carnage will be enormous, and an infuriated Israel will invade the territory controlled by the Palestinian Authority. Sharon will vow to end Palestinian terrorism once and for all.

The Arab world will be split into two camps. On the one hand, Arab "radicals," led by Iraq's Saddam Hussein, will call for all-out war to eliminate the "Zionist entity." On the other hand, Arab "moderates," led by Egypt, will call for a "diplomatic" response. The "moderates" will present a resolution in the U.N. Security Council denouncing Israel's "Nazi-like war crimes," and demanding that Israel pull back to the 1967 borders, or face severe international sanctions. Privately, "moderate" Arabs will warn the U.S. that passage of this resolution is the only alternative to a regional conflagration.

The Russians, the Chinese, and most of the Third World will back the Arabs to the hilt. The Europeans will engage in urgent negotiations. After hours of the most intense diplomacy, they will announce a major breakthrough. In an unprecedented show of moderation, they will report, Arab diplomats have agreed to drop the phrase "Nazi-like" from their draft, substituting the much more moderate adjective, "genocidal." To reward such moderation, the Europeans will feel duty-bound to support this latest draft.

And now the eyes of the world will turn to Washington. Will the U.S. stick with Israel, or will it join the anti-Israeli lynch mob?

Over at the State Department, the lights will burn long into the night. Like the Arabs, Secretary Powell's advisers will split into two groups. The anti-Israel group will make four arguments: First, however serious the provocation, the Israeli response was "excessive and disproportionate." Second, a vote in favor of the Arab draft is necessary in order to strengthen our "moderate" Arab allies. Third, if we're tough on Israel today, we'll be in a much stronger moral position to be tough on Iraq tomorrow. And finally, if we veto the resolution, Arab mobs will sack our embassies all across the Middle East, Americans will be killed or taken hostage, and -- who knows? -- Arab terrorists may even strike at Washington itself!

The pro-Israel group will basically agree with everything the anti-Israel group says, only instead of voting for the Arab draft, it will argue that we simply abstain. That way, we can maintain our credibility with all the parties.

The pro-Israeli group will eventually win the debate, and Secretary Powell will duly advise the President that the U.S. should abstain on the U.N. draft resolution, thereby guaranteeing its passage.

So now it really will be crunch time for George W. Bush. If he accepts Secretary Powell's recommendations, Israel's back will be broken, and a radical Palestinian state, led by Yasir Arafat and his gang of cutthroats, will very quickly come into being. But if he turns down the Secretary's recommendation, and orders the State Department to veto the resolution, he risks provoking the wrath of the Arab world. What will he do? Joseph Shattan is the author of Architects of Victory: Six Heroes of the Cold War (Heritage Foundation).

-- Anonymous, May 11, 2001

Answers

Am I missing something here? What "severe international sanctions" could the UN impose that Israel would feel bound to give up its identify for?

-- Anonymous, May 11, 2001

Yasir will be assassinated throwing the Palestinians into a furor and this will cause the UN to have to move into that area to control them.

-- Anonymous, May 12, 2001