Cuts urged in Patrols Over Iraq
Risk of Allied Pilot Being Downed Cited

By Thomas E. Ricks and Alan Sipress
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, May 9, 2001; Page A01

The two U.S. military commanders overseeing the "no-fly" zones in Iraq have recommended that the Bush administration sharply reduce the number of patrols conducted by American and British pilots, mainly because of the mounting danger that an allied plane could be shot down, a Pentagon official said yesterday.

Army Gen. Tommy R. Franks, head of the U.S. Central Command, and Air Force Gen. Joseph W. Ralston, the top U.S. military officer in Europe, have recommended "major changes in the way we do the patrols" to enforce a U.S. ban on all Iraqi flights over large swaths of northern and southern Iraq, the official said.

Administration officials said yesterday that the United States remains committed to maintaining the no-fly zones, and neither Franks nor Ralston is recommending that Iraqi planes be allowed to resume flying. But the generals, concerned about an intensified Iraqi campaign to shoot down an American plane, are pressing the administration to change the way they are enforced.

Franks's Central Command enforces the ban on flights over southern Iraq, which was imposed by the United States with allied support in 1992 to protect the restive Shiite population in the south from a crackdown by President Saddam Hussein's military, as well as to prevent his forces from massing near the Kuwaiti and Saudi borders. Ralston is in charge of the American forces based in Turkey that patrol the northern no-fly zone, which was declared in 1991 to protect rebellious Iraqi Kurds from air attack.

Franks has recommended reducing the patrols in the south but maintaining a minimum number of allied flights to keep a close eye on Iraqi troops who could approach the Saudi and Kuwaiti borders, a second Pentagon official said.

Ralston has indicated that he would prefer a halt to the flights in the north, this official said. But, he added, Ralston would like to keep warplanes at the ready in Turkey and declare that the United States reserved the right to launch retaliatory strikes if Iraq flew warplanes in the zones to harass the Kurds or other minority groups.

Reducing the number of patrols would decrease the need for frequent U.S. bombing of Iraqi air defenses. This could mark an end to the undeclared war that has pitted American and British pilots against Iraqi gunners since 1998. It also could ease the concerns of American allies in Europe and the Middle East who have urged the United States to adopt a less aggressive posture.

Last year, U.S. aircraft dropped bombs or fired missiles on Iraq 98 times, according to congressional testimony by Franks and Ralston in late March. The Iraqi government estimates that U.S. airstrikes have killed 300 people, mostly civilians, since 1998.

The military recommendations come as the administration is conducting an overall review of Iraq policy that officials hope will be completed by summer. In addition to examining the no-fly zones, Bush officials are trying to build international support for a new system of "smart sanctions" targeting Saddam Hussein's military capability, and they are reviewing what support to provide Iraqi opposition groups seeking to overthrow the Baghdad regime.

One top commander stressed to the administration that the risk of losing a U.S. pilot has grown so great in recent weeks that continuing the operation may no longer be justifiable, a person familiar with the administration's policy discussions said.

The danger to the U.S. and British pilots who fly in the two zones has skyrocketed as Iraq's military has made an unusually determined effort to shoot down a pilot, this person said. Almost every flight has been fired on by Iraqi antiaircraft guns, and well over 100 surface-to-air missiles have been launched since the last large-scale U.S. and British air raids in mid-February, he added.

In addition, he said, the Iraqis are rarely turning on their air-defense radars, making them harder to target and so lessening the military benefit of flying in the zones. Without radar to guide their missiles, the Iraqis are firing almost blindly, but in such great numbers that U.S. commanders fear that eventually they will get a lucky hit. Worried U.S. pilots call this getting hit by a "golden BB."

Administration officials, including Secretary of State Colin L. Powell in congressional testimony last week, have repeatedly said they intend to maintain the no-fly zones.

A senior State Department official said yesterday the administration continues to view them as necessary on two counts: preventing Saddam Hussein from using Iraqi air power against Kurds and Shiites, and precluding him from building up military forces where they could threaten neighboring countries, namely Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

"The issue under review is what is the best way to implement the no-fly zones, not whether there should be no-fly zones," the State Department official said.

Administration officials involved in reviewing various elements of U.S. policy toward Baghdad say they have made the most progress in developing a new approach toward the United Nations sanctions imposed on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

In recent weeks, U.S. diplomats have repeatedly visited European and Middle Eastern capitals to build support for a policy of lifting most economic sanctions while tightening the restrictions on imports and revenue that Hussein could use to develop weapons of mass destruction and to strengthen his army. The administration plans to finalize its sanctions proposal before a U.N. review in June of the current oil-for-food program.

At the same time, Bush officials have been debating how much financial, military and covert backing should be provided to the Iraqi opposition. They are also weighing whether to extend American support beyond the Iraqi National Congress, now the main recipient of U.S. aid, to other opposition figures and organizations.

© 2001 The Washington Post Company

-- Anonymous, May 08, 2001