Chicago SunTimes

Breaux no pal of Bush May 7, 2001

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

When President Bush hosted a "victory" celebration in the White House Cabinet room last Wednesday after the budget deal, Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana was among Democrats at the table. Why invite somebody who contributed nothing to the settlement? Because if Bush were going to declare victory in the budget war, he had to pretend that Breaux had been helpful.

Breaux was central to Bush's grand design of working with cooperative Democrats in Washington as he had in Austin as governor of Texas. Breaux, dining one-on-one with Bush in the Texas governor's mansion last December and at the White House two weeks ago, was cast to play the collaborative role that the late House Speaker Bob Bullock did in Texas. But Washington is not Austin, and Breaux surely is not Bullock.

Breaux's insightful colleagues knew from the start that the "cagey Cajun" would break Bush's heart. The president knows it now. The efforts to reach a budget deal finally made it clear to the Bush team that Breaux was not negotiating for himself but for the Senate Democratic leader, Thomas Daschle.

The reality, so different from the image, of Breaux underscores the prodigious task faced by Bush in trying to pass his program in a Senate divided 50-50 after the loss of five Republican seats last November. In my 44th year of Senate-watching, I never have seen a caucus so disciplined as the current Democrats or a leader so implacably liberal as Daschle.

Breaux was viewed by the new president as the lever to pry away loyal senators from Daschle. His Republican colleagues knew better. While critical of President Bill Clinton's policies and personal behavior, Breaux never was able to break from the party. It goes without saying that Breaux marched in Democratic lock step during the presidential impeachment fight.

Breaux was described to me in these terms by a Republican senator who knows him well, likes him and asked not to be identified: "He's a crafty guy. . . . He's in a class by himself in the Senate. He doesn't intentionally mislead with an act of overt pretense. But he . . . can make you believe that you are getting through to him, and he can make you sure that he is the man to see to get anything done."

That appeared to be Breaux's impact on Bush as the two good ol' boys got together in Austin last December. Just how mistaken the president was was confirmed in the last two weeks.

In the 50-50 Senate, only one Democrat--Zell Miller of Georgia--supports the Bush tax cut. Two liberal New England Republicans--Jim Jeffords of Vermont and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island--are hopelessly off the president's reservation. Bush needed one Democratic vote to pass his $1.6 trillion, l0-year tax cut. Breaux would not give it to him when the budget went through the Senate at $1.2 trillion.

At this point, Breaux became Bush's biggest problem. The president wanted to split the difference between the $1.6 trillion tax cut in the House version of the budget and the Senate's $1.2 trillion. Three or four Democratic senators made clear they would back $1.4 trillion if Breaux would go along with it. But Breaux would not buy anything unacceptable to Daschle, and the remorseless Democratic leader wanted something better than an even split.

Thus, the power broker counted on by Bush turned out to be the agent for the Democratic leader. Daschle dictated a $1.35 trillion cut spread out over 11 years. That is vastly more than Democrats wanted but enough below Bush's wishes to deprive him of a clear victory.

More important is what this foretells about battles to come. To reduce the top tax rate to 33 percent, to repeal the estate tax and to begin the privatization of Social Security will require support from Democratic senators. Bush should know now that Breaux won't help him get them.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 2001