http://www.boston.com/dailynews/127/world/Germany_emerging_as_the_new_so:.shtml

Germany emerging as the new, somewhat reluctant power in Europe

By Jeffrey Ulbrich, Associated Press, 5/7/2001 01:09

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) There's a new European Union on the horizon one with more than two dozen states that will have a single currency, a common foreign policy, its own military force and, after years of hesitation, a newly assertive Germany.

The politically incorrect question now is: Will Berlin, however reluctantly, become the boss of this Europe, an ambition it failed to achieve in two world wars? Probably. But one man's domination is another man's leadership.

French diplomacy has long been at the forefront of uniting Europe politically and economically in what is now called the European Union. Germany, suffering for half a century from a postwar reticence to exert the power its population and economic clout deserved, allowed France to do the driving while Germany quietly paid for the gas.

''France took care of the ideas, Germany the means and Italy the flexibility of structure,'' said Frits Bolkestein, the European Union's Commissioner for internal market affairs.

At the union's summit last December, in agreeing to accept the same voting power as France, Britain and Italy on EU decisions, Germany bowed to France but perhaps for the last time. Looking further down the road, Germany won the promise of 99 seats in an enlarged European Parliament, against 72 each for France, Britain and Italy.

The implication was clear: The German era had begun.

The numbers make German ascendancy seem obvious. It has 82 million people, 23 million more than France. It generates 24 percent of the European Union's gross domestic product, compared with France's 16 percent. It's smaller than France geographically, but straddles the center of Central Europe.

Now German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is proposing to redefine the EU's powers, creating a stronger EU executive, an elected president, and a strengthened European Parliament.

The reawakened German assertiveness is evident in Berlin's divergence from France and Britain on what shape the union should take once it has expanded into the formerly communist east of Europe.

Germany and Italy, which came into being in the 19th century as federations of disparate states, want to move to something resembling a United States of Europe with a constitution and a bill of rights. France and Britain, for centuries highly centralized states, are wary of creating a European superstate.

While not aggressive about throwing their weight around, Germany's new leaders are not embarrassed by power. Germany today is a strong democracy led by a generation that did not live through World War II, leaders who do not suffer the guilt that for so long made Germans hesitant to seize political opportunities.

''This generation is less linked to the past,'' said Javier Solana of Spain, the EU's chief of foreign and security affairs. ''It is a generation that has recognized that ... they want to play their role in Europe, a role that is absolutely democratic.''

Should a resurgent Germany be cause for alarm? Some older Europeans still think so. Jean-Pierre Chevenement, France's former interior minister, said of Germany last year: ''Deep down, it is still dreaming of the Holy Roman Empire. It hasn't cured itself of its past derailment into Nazism.''

But his remark caused a furor in France and he had to apologize.

For the younger generation, continental wars are something for the history books.

''Germany is now a partner,'' said Blandine Barnier, a primary school teacher in Lyon, France. ''It's not a partner to fear. We teach the war such as it was lived. For the children, the Germans are not monsters.''

Jose Redondo, 36, an executive in a Spanish chemical company, said it's only natural that Germany move to the forefront.

''Germany is the one that puts the most money into the European community,'' he said, ''so that's why they want the most in return.''

In the view of many Europeans, however, Germany is still a reluctant leader.

''Fundamentally, I doubt Germany will go very fast in asserting its economic and geopolitical power,'' said Achille Albonetti, coeditor of Affari Esteri. an Italian foreign affairs journal.

Nonetheless, with the expected enlargement of the European Union from 15 member states to 27 over the next decade, Europe's center of gravity clearly is moving eastward, into the former communist bloc where Germany is the major investor.

''Germany is much more sensitive to the needs of the Central European countries,'' said Mihaly Fulop, a Hungarian scholar currently teaching at the Institute for Political Studies in Paris.

Germany's reluctance to rush into a clear leadership role is, Fulop says, ''a very good thing for Germany and a good thing for Central Europe. It's also a good thing for the French who can continue to entertain an illusion of leadership.''

Still, fundamental differences that long lay under wraps have come into the open.

In a speech that rocked some of Berlin's neighbors, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer spoke last year of ''the transition from the Union as an alliance of states to a European federation with a fully fledged parliament.''

President Jacques Chirac of France responded in an address to the German Parliament: ''Neither you nor we are working on setting up a European superstate to replace our nation states and to mark the end of them as the vehicles for international affairs.''

The French-German engine pulled the EU forward out of the wreckage of World War II. But now it is now pulling in different directions.

''The engine has changed because there is a new design of the engine,'' said Robert Aspeslagh of the Netherlands' Clingendael Institute. ''And in this design, Germany is more important than France.''

-- Anonymous, May 07, 2001

Answers

Maybe this will slow them down.

BBC - Monday, 7 May, 2001, 10:53 GMT 11:53 UK

'Made in Germany' orders down 4.4%

German-made goods are not pulling in as many orders Orders placed with companies in the German manufacturing sector slowed sharply in March as the worldwide economic downturn hit demand, the country's Finance Ministry reported on Monday.

German manufacturing orders fell by 4.4% in March from February, the ministry said.

The decline was much sharper than the fall of 0.3-0.4% that had been expected.

The ministry blamed the decline for German-made goods on "global economic cooling" but noted "the figures can be expected to be revised upwards".

The data adds to evidence that the euro zone's biggest economy is being hit hard by the global economic slowdown.

Interest rate impact

The figures are expected to increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its interest rates.

The ECB is due to meet on Thursday but few economists are expecting a cut to rates which have been at 4.75% since October.

The ECB is the only major central bank in the world not to have loosened its monetary grip in response to the deteriorating global economic conditions.

The US Federal Reserve has cut key rates four times this year.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 2001