http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,485398,00.html

New Yorkers fear summer power struggle

The heat is rising in the city, reports Jane Martinson, and some say New York is next for power blackouts

Jane Martinson in New York

Thursday May 3, 2001

It's summer in the city of New York. After months of miserable weather, temperatures have been in the 80s all week and the latest reports suggests that this summer could be a scorcher.

Everybody's happy, apart for those miserable souls who fear power blackouts as the humidity heads for 100%.

Energy analysts believe that America's largest city is the most likely to follow the example of California into a power crisis this summer. On paper at least, New York's antiquated, deregulated supply is going to find it tough to meet the increased demand of a rising population and high temperatures.

State authorities are rushing to complete 7 power stations before June 1, while Consolidated Edison, the local supplier, has requested approval for 11 new mini-generators in case of a power shortage. Environmentalists and local neighbourhood groups have already filed lawsuits to stop them from doing so.

Such battles echo those being played out on a national scale. Dick Cheney, the vice-president, gave a huge boost to the energy industry this week when he said that more power plants should be built. In doing so, he reopened a door on the nuclear power industry shut since a radioactive leak on Three-Mile Island more than 20 years ago.

Environmentalists are horrified by this supply-side mentality. They argue that if Americans curtailed some of their gas use - they are the world's greatest consumers by a wide margin - then the need for more polluting or dangerous sources of power would be avoided.

Cheney, a former oil industry executive, dismissed the idea of conservation as 1970s-era thinking on Monday. "Without a clear, coherent energy strategy, all Americans could one day go through what Californians are experiencing now, or worse," he said.

Such words strike at the heart of New Yorkers, some of whom are already shunning the public transit system for fear of an air conditioning failure.

The excessive demand that plagues the rest of America holds true in New York, where some people spend the summer months hardly ever venturing out of air conditioned spaces. However, Manhattan's problems are exacerbated by an elderly transmission system which transports energy from outside the island.

Consumer advocates and ConEd itself also argue that the speedy deregulation of the industry, which took effect in November 1999, is also leading to price fixing and an inadequate response to a potential crisis.

As the political temperature rose this week, the Northest Power Co-ordinating Council, a non-profit industry group, said that new power plants should help keep the lights on this summer in all but the most unusual circumstances. These circumstances include a week-long heatwave or a major transmission line failure. The council put the chances of such an event happening - a thunderstorm hitting a transmission line, for example - as "1 in 5,000".

Local watchdogs disagree. Gerald Norlander, executive director of PULP, said such rose-tinted assessments depended on statistical testing rather than reality. "Most assurances that we won't have a problem this summer are being given on the basis of arithmetic," he said.

"A combination of bad luck and a mistake or two could put us back in 1978 [the last time of major shortages in the city]."

While the debate about blackouts rages, few argue that New York will see more price increases this year in spite of the fact that its prices are already the highest in the US. After increasing 40% in the last two years, prices could rise 50% more if this summer turns out to be as hot as expected. The main culprit is the state's dependance on gas-fired plants as gas prices have doubled in the past year.

During an unprecedented economic boom, high prices failed to deter increased use. US government figures suggest that electricity demand will grow 2.3% nationally this year, with New York City no exception.

Such is the average consumer's failure to connect increased supply with a lack of conservation that the government's bid to return to nuclear power is winning votes. In a poll commissioned by The Associated Press, half of those questioned said they support using nuclear power to generate electricity while 30% said they opposed it. The rest said they didn't know.

Some even said they would not mind a new nuclear plant being built less than 10 miles from their homes. Three Mile Island, America's worst commercial nuclear accident, leaked radioactive steam into the atmosphere in Pennsylvania, less than an hour by train from New York.

The last summer in New York proved to be the coldest since 1914. As the political battles and the temperature heats up, New York could find itself a national battleground.

-- (in@energy.news), May 04, 2001